The use of fuzzy variables in pert

In this paper we present a method—called Fpert—for estimating a project completion time in the situation when activity duration times in the project network model are given in the form of fuzzy variables—fuzzy sets on time space. Theoretical foundations of the method as well as results of calculations derived from a simple example are included.     

Structured construction and simulation of nondeterministic stochastic activity networks

In this work we deal with nondeterministic stochastic activity networks (NDSANs). Their stochastic character results from activity durations, which are given by nonnegative continuous random variables. The nondeterministic behavior of an NDSAN is a consequence of its variable topology, based on two additional features. First, by associating choice probabilities with the immediate successors of an activity, some branches of execution are not always taken. Second, by allowing iterated executions of a group of activities according to predetermined probabilities, the number of times an activity is to be executed is not determined a priori. These properties lead to a wide variety of activity networks, capable of modelling many real situations in process engineering and project management. We describe a simple, recursively structured construction of NDSANs, which both provides a coherent syntactic mechanism to incorporate the two abovementioned nondeterminism features and allows the analytic formulation of completion time. This construction also directly gives rise to a recursive simulation algorithm for NDSANs, whose repeated execution produces an estimate of the probability distribution of the completion time of the network. We also report on real-world case studies, using the Komolgorov–Smirnov statistic for validation.     

Proactive policies for the stochastic resource-constrained project scheduling problem

The resource-constrained project scheduling problem involves the determination of a schedule of the project activities, satisfying the precedence and resource constraints while minimizing the project duration. In practice, activity durations may be subject to variability. We propose a stochastic methodology for the determination of a project execution policy and a vector of predictive activity starting times with the objective of minimizing a cost function that consists of the weighted expected activity starting time deviations and the penalties or bonuses associated with late or early project completion. In a computational experiment, we show that our procedure greatly outperforms existing algorithms described in the literature.     

Time-cost trade-off via optimal control theory in Markov PERT networks

We develop a new analytical model for the time-cost trade-off problem via optimal control theory in Markov PERT networks. It is assumed that the activity durations are independent random variables with generalized Erlang distributions, in which the mean duration of each activity is a non-increasing function of the amount of resource allocated to it. Then, we construct a multi-objective optimal control problem, in which the first objective is the minimization of the total direct costs of the project, in which the direct cost of each activity is a non-decreasing function of the resources allocated to it, the second objective is the minimization of the mean of project completion time and the third objective is the minimization of the variance of project completion time. Finally, two multi-objective decision techniques, viz, goal attainment and goal programming are applied to solve this multi-objective optimal control problem and obtain the optimal resources allocated to the activities or the control vector of the problem     

A rule for slack allocation proportional to the duration in a PERT network

In this paper, we define a new rule for the resolution of the slack allocation problem in a PERT network. This problem exists of allocating existing extra time in some paths among the activities belonging to those paths. The allocation rule that we propose assigns extra time to the activities proportionally to their durations in such a way that no path duration exceeds the completion time of the whole project. This time allocation enables us to make a schedule for the PERT project under study. We give two characterizations of the rule and we compare it with others that have been previously defined in the literature.     

A minmax regret approach to the critical path method with task interval times

The execution of a given project, with a number of interrelated tasks due to precedence constraints, represents a challenge when one must to control the available resources and the compromised due dates. In this paper, we analyse this problem under uncertain individual task completing times, specifically, we will assume that a given range, for the admissible values of each individual completing time, is available. Taking into account that the precedence relations between tasks must be preserved, each realization of the admissible execution times for the set of tasks will define a new scenario determining the ending time for the project and the subset of critical tasks.     

MARKOV SKELETON PROCESS IN PERT NETWORKS

In this article, we investigate Programming Evaluation and Review Technique networks with independently and generally distributed activity durations. For any path in this network, we select all the activities related to this path such that the completion time of the sub-network （only consisting of all the related activities） is equal to the completion time of this path. We use the elapsed time as the supplementary variables and model this sub-network as a Markov skeleton process, the state space is related to the subnetwork structure. Then use the backward equation to compute the distribution of the sub-network＇s completion time, which is an important rule in project management and scheduling.     

A priority-rule method for project scheduling with work-content constraints

The activities of a project are in general characterized by a work content in terms of resource–time units, e.g. person-days. Even though most project scheduling models assume a time-invariant resource usage, normally it is possible to vary the resource usage during the execution of an activity. Typically, a lower and an upper bound on this resource usage and a minimum time lag between consecutive changes of this resource usage are prescribed. The project scheduling problem studied in this paper consists in determining a feasible resource-usage profile for each activity such that the project duration is minimized subject to precedence and resource-capacity constraints. While the known solution methods interpret the prescribed work content as a lower bound, we assume that each activity’s work content must be processed exactly.     

Resource allocation in dynamic PERT networks with finite capacity

This article models the resource allocation problem in dynamic PERT networks with finite capacity of concurrent projects (COnstant Number of Projects In Process (CONPIP)), where activity durations are independent random variables with exponential distributions, and the new projects are generated according to a Poisson process. The system is represented as a queuing network with finite concurrent projects, where each activity of a project is performed at a devoted service station with one server located in a node of the network. For modeling dynamic PERT networks with CONPIP, we first convert the network of queues into a stochastic network. Then, by constructing a proper finite-state continuous-time Markov model, a system of differential equations is created to solve and find the completion time distribution for any particular project. Finally, we propose a multi-objective model with three conflict objectives to optimally control the resources allocated to the servers, and apply the goal attainment method to solve a discrete-time approximation of the original multi-objective problem.     

Markov skeleton process in PERT networks

In this article, we investigate Programming Evaluation and Review Technique networks with independently and generally distributed activity durations. For any path in this network, we select all the activities related to this path such that the completion time of the sub-network (only consisting of all the related activities) is equal to the completion time of this path. We use the elapsed time as the supplementary variables and model this sub-network as a Markov skeleton process, the state space is related to the sub-network structure. Then use the backward equation to compute the distribution of the sub-network's completion time, which is an important rule in project management and scheduling.     

Normally Distributed Activity Durations in PERT Networks

It is assumed that activity durations in a PERT network are independent and normal random variables. A simple method of obtaining lower and upper bounds for the expected project completion time is described. The tightness of the bounds is examined for some numerical examples. A problem of applying the method in the case of non-normal distributions of activity times is also discussed.     

Adaptive policies for multi-mode project scheduling under uncertainty

In this paper we propose an adaptive model for multi-mode project scheduling under uncertainty. We assume that there is a due date for concluding the project and a tardiness penalty for failing to meet this due date, and that several distinct modes may be used to undertake each activity. We define scheduling policies based on a set of thresholds. The starting time of the activity is compared with those thresholds in order to define the execution mode.We propose a procedure, based on the electromagnetism heuristic, for choosing a scheduling policy. In computational tests, we conclude that the adaptive scheduling policy found by using the model and the heuristic solution procedure is consistently better than the optimal non-adaptive policy. When the different modes have very different characteristics and there is a reasonable difference between the average duration of the project and the due date, the cost advantage of the adaptive policy becomes very significant.     

Fuzzy project scheduling problem and its hybrid intelligent algorithm

Project scheduling problem is to determine the schedule of allocating resources so as to balance the total cost and the completion time. This paper considers a type of project scheduling problem with fuzzy activity duration times. According to some management goals, three types of fuzzy models are built to solve the project scheduling problem. Moreover, the technique of fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm are integrated to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve the fuzzy models. Finally, some numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.     

Efficient sensitivity analysis of PERT network performance measures to significant changes in activity time parameters

Using a Program Evaluation and Review Technique network model of a project schedule, a method is presented to estimate the effects of changes to the probability distribution for any activity time on several project schedule measures. Computational results show this method to be significantly faster and more accurate than a previously published approach, which estimated the effects of changes to the means of normally distributed activity times on expected project completion time and activity criticality. In addition, the new method allows more flexibility to model changes to activity times, including independent changes to parameters and even changes in the distributional form. Finally, the new method estimates the effects of these changes on several additional performance measures, including the probability of meeting a specified due date and a project (penalty) cost function. All desired estimates are obtained from a single set of simulation runs.     

A heuristic method for RCPSP with fuzzy activity times

In this paper, we propose a heuristic method for resource constrained project scheduling problem with fuzzy activity times. This method is based on priority rule for parallel schedule generation scheme. Calculation of critical path in this case requires comparison of fuzzy numbers. Distance based ranking of fuzzy number is used for finding the critical path length and concept of shifting criticality is proposed for some of the special cases. We also propose a measure for finding the non-integer power of a fuzzy number. We discuss some properties of the proposed method. We use an example to illustrate the method.     

Analysis of critical paths in a project network with fuzzy activity times

This paper proposes an approach to critical path analysis for a project network with activity times being fuzzy numbers, in that the membership function of the fuzzy total duration time is constructed. The basic idea is based on the extension principle and linear programming formulation. A pair of linear programs parameterized by possibility level α is formulated to calculate the lower and upper bounds of the fuzzy total duration time at α. By enumerating different values of α, the membership function of the fuzzy total duration time is constructed, and the fuzzy critical paths are identified at the same time. Moreover, by applying the Yager ranking method, definitions of the most critical path and the relative degree of criticality of paths are developed; and these definitions are theoretically sound and easy to use in practice. Two examples with activity times being fuzzy numbers of L-R and L-L types discussed in previous studies are solved successfully to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach. Since the total duration time is completely expressed by a membership function rather than by a crisp value, the fuzziness of activity times is conserved completely, and more information is provided for critical path analysis.     

A linear Bayesian stochastic approximation to update project duration estimates

By relaxing the unrealistic assumption of probabilistic independence on activity durations in a project, this paper develops a hierarchical linear Bayesian estimation model. Statistical dependence is established between activity duration and the amount of resource, as well as between the amount of resource and the risk factor. Upon observation or assessment of the amount of resource required for an activity in near completion, the posterior expectation and variance of the risk factor can be directly obtained in the Bayesian scheme. Then, the expected amount of resources required for and the expected duration of upcoming activities can be predicted. We simulate an application project in which the proposed model tracks the varying critical path activities on a real time basis, and updates the expected project duration throughout the entire project. In the analysis, the proposed model improves the prediction accuracy by 38.36% compared to the basic PERT approach.     

Evaluating Project Completion Times When Activity Times are Erlang Distributed

One aspect of project planning risk assessment is to do with the uncertainty of the project duration. This uncertainty can be quantified by determining the project completion time distribution. A brief review of the existing literature on project duration risk assessment methodologies is given and their advantages and disadvantages evaluated. A development of the moments method based on Erlang distribution of activity times provides an accurate estimate of a project completion time distribution for a large range of practical situations and also is the basis upon which multi-modal input distributions of activity times can be handled. The method is assessed by a number of illustrative examples.     

Project scheduling problem with mixed uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness

Project scheduling problem is to determine the schedule of allocating resources so as to balance the total cost and the completion time. This paper considers project scheduling problem with mixed uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness, where activity duration times are assumed to be random fuzzy variables. Three types of random fuzzy models as expected cost minimization model, (α, β)-cost minimization model and chance maximization model are built to meet different management requirements. Random fuzzy simulations for some uncertain functions are given and embedded into genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm. Finally, some numerical experiments are given for the sake of illustration of the effectiveness of the algorithm.     

A server backup model with Markovian arrivals and phase type services

We consider a finite capacity queueing system with one main server who is supported by a backup server. We assume Markovian arrivals, phase type services, and a threshold-type server backup policy with two pre-determined lower and upper thresholds. A request for a backup server is made whenever the buffer size (number of customers in the queue) hits the upper threshold and the backup server is released from the system when the buffer size drops to the lower threshold or fewer at a service completion of the backup server. The request time for the backup server is assumed to be exponentially distributed. For this queuing model we perform the steady state analysis and derive a number of performance measures. We show that the busy periods of the main and backup servers, the waiting times in the queue and in the system, are of phase type. We develop a cost model to obtain the optimal threshold values and study the impact of fixed and variable costs for the backup server on the optimal server backup decisions. We show that the impact of standard deviations of the interarrival and service time distributions on the server backup decisions is quite different for small and large values of the arrival rates. In addition, the pattern of use of the backup server is very different when the arrivals are positively correlated compared to mutually independent arrivals.