Regularly varying multivariate time series

Extreme values of a stationary, multivariate time series may exhibit dependence across coordinates and over time. The aim of this paper is to offer a new and potentially useful tool called tail process to describe and model such extremes. The key property is the following fact: existence of the tail process is equivalent to multivariate regular variation of finite cuts of the original process. Certain remarkable properties of the tail process are exploited to shed new light on known results on certain point processes of extremes. The theory is shown to be applicable with great ease to stationary solutions of stochastic autoregressive processes with random coefficient matrices, an interesting special case being a recently proposed factor GARCH model. In this class of models, the distribution of the tail process is calculated by a combination of analytical methods and a novel sampling algorithm.     

Multivariate linear recursions with Markov-dependent coefficients

We study a linear recursion with random Markov-dependent coefficients. In a “regular variation in, regular variation out” setup we show that its stationary solution has a multivariate regularly varying distribution. This extends results previously established for i.i.d. coefficients.     

An asymptotic theory for sample covariances of Bernoulli shifts

Covariances play a fundamental role in the theory of stationary processes and they can naturally be estimated by sample covariances. There is a well-developed asymptotic theory for sample covariances of linear processes. For nonlinear processes, however, many important problems on their asymptotic behaviors are still unanswered. The paper presents a systematic asymptotic theory for sample covariances of nonlinear time series. Our results are applied to the test of correlations.     

Non-uniqueness of stationary measures for self-stabilizing processes

We investigate the existence of invariant measures for self-stabilizing diffusions. These stochastic processes represent roughly the behavior of some Brownian particle moving in a double-well landscape and attracted by its own law. This specific self-interaction leads to nonlinear stochastic differential equations and permits pointing out singular phenomena like non-uniqueness of associated stationary measures. The existence of several invariant measures is essentially based on the non-convex environment and requires generalized Laplace’s method approximations.     

Double Aztec diamonds and the tacnode process

Discrete and continuous non-intersecting random processes have given rise to critical “infinite-dimensional diffusions”, like the Airy process, the Pearcey process and variations thereof. It has been known that domino tilings of very large Aztec diamonds lead macroscopically to a disordered region within an inscribed ellipse (arctic circle in the homogeneous case), and a regular brick-like region outside the ellipse. The fluctuations near the ellipse, appropriately magnified and away from the boundary of the Aztec diamond, form an Airy process, run with time tangential to the boundary.     

Forgetting the initial distribution for Hidden Markov Models

The forgetting of the initial distribution for discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is addressed: a new set of conditions is proposed, to establish the forgetting property of the filter, at a polynomial and geometric rate. Both a pathwise-type convergence of the total variation distance of the filter started from two different initial distributions, and a convergence in expectation are considered. The results are illustrated using different HMM of interest: the dynamic tobit model, the nonlinear state space model and the stochastic volatility model.     

Fluctuations of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

We present a multivariate central limit theorem for a general class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to solve nonlinear measure-valued equations. These algorithms generate stochastic processes which belong to the class of nonlinear Markov chains interacting with their empirical occupation measures. We develop an original theoretical analysis based on resolvent operators and semigroup techniques to analyze the fluctuations of their occupation measures around their limiting values.     

Asymptotics of random contractions

In this paper we discuss the asymptotic behaviour of random contractions X=RS, where R, with distribution function F, is a positive random variable independent of S∈(0,1). Random contractions appear naturally in insurance and finance. Our principal contribution is the derivation of the tail asymptotics of X assuming that F is in the max-domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution and the distribution function of S satisfies a regular variation property. We apply our result to derive the asymptotics of the probability of ruin for a particular discrete-time risk model. Further we quantify in our asymptotic setting the effect of the random scaling on the Conditional Tail Expectations, risk aggregation, and derive the joint asymptotic distribution of linear combinations of random contractions.     

A fractional credit model with long range dependent default rate

Motivated by empirical evidence of long range dependence in macroeconomic variables like interest rates we propose a fractional Brownian motion driven model to describe the dynamics of the short and the default rate in a bond market. Aiming at results analogous to those for affine models we start with a bivariate fractional Vasicek model for short and default rate, which allows for fairly explicit calculations. We calculate the prices of corresponding defaultable zero-coupon bonds by invoking Wick calculus. Applying a Girsanov theorem we derive today’s prices of European calls and compare our results to the classical Brownian model.     

The formation of trapped surfaces in spherically-symmetric Einstein–Euler spacetimes with bounded variation

We study the evolution of a self-gravitating compressible fluid in spherical symmetry and we prove the existence of weak solutions with bounded variation for the Einstein–Euler equations of general relativity. We formulate the initial value problem in Eddington–Finkelstein coordinates and prescribe spherically symmetric data on a characteristic initial hypersurface. We introduce here a broad class of initial data which contain no trapped surfaces, and we then prove that their Cauchy development contains trapped surfaces. We therefore establish the formation of trapped surfaces in weak solutions to the Einstein equations. This result generalizes a theorem by Christodoulou for regular vacuum spacetimes (but without symmetry restriction). Our method of proof relies on a generalization of the “random choice” method for nonlinear hyperbolic systems and on a detailed analysis of the nonlinear coupling between the Einstein equations and the relativistic Euler equations in spherical symmetry.     

Stationarity of multivariate particle systems

A particle system is a family of i.i.d. stochastic processes with values translated by Poisson points. We obtain conditions that ensure the stationarity in time of the particle system in R^d${\mathbb{R}}^d$ and in some cases provide a full characterisation of the stationarity property. In particular, a full characterisation of stationary multivariate Brown–Resnick processes is given.     

Median,concentration and fluctuations for Lévy processes

We estimate a median of f(_Xt)$f\left(X_t\right)$ where f$f$ is a Lipschitz function, X$X$ is a Lévy process and t$t$ is an arbitrary time. This leads to concentration inequalities for f(_Xt)$f\left(X_t\right)$. In turn, corresponding fluctuation estimates are obtained under assumptions typically satisfied if the process has a regular behavior in small time and a, possibly different, regular behavior in large time.     

Truncated variation, upward truncated variation and downward truncated variation of Brownian motion with drift — Their characteristics and applications

In ?ochowski (2008) [9] we defined truncated variation of Brownian motion with drift, W_t=B_t+μt,t≥0, where (B_t) is a standard Brownian motion. Truncated variation differs from regular variation in neglecting jumps smaller than some fixed c>0. We prove that truncated variation is a random variable with finite moment-generating function for any complex argument.We also define two closely related quantities — upward truncated variation and downward truncated variation.The defined quantities may have interpretations in financial mathematics. The exponential moment of upward truncated variation may be interpreted as the maximal possible return from trading a financial asset in the presence of flat commission when the dynamics of the prices of the asset follows a geometric Brownian motion process.We calculate the Laplace transform with respect to the time parameter of the moment-generating functions of the upward and downward truncated variations.As an application of the formula obtained we give an exact formula for the expected values of upward and downward truncated variations. We also give exact (up to universal constants) estimates of the expected values of the quantities mentioned.     

Corrigendum to “Prediction for some processes related to a fractional Brownian motion”

This note is a correction for the statement of the results presented in Proposition 2 of Duncan (2006).     

Long strange segments,ruin probabilities and the effect of memory on moving average processes

We obtain the rate of growth of long strange segments and the rate of decay of infinite horizon ruin probabilities for a class of infinite moving average processes with exponentially light tails. The rates are computed explicitly. We show that the rates are very similar to those of an i.i.d. process as long as the moving average coefficients decay fast enough. If they do not, then the rates are significantly different. This demonstrates the change in the length of memory in a moving average process associated with certain changes in the rate of decay of the coefficients.     

Tempering stable processes

A tempered stable Lévy process combines both the α$\alpha$-stable and Gaussian trends. In a short time frame it is close to an α$\alpha$-stable process while in a long time frame it approximates a Brownian motion. In this paper we consider a general and robust class of multivariate tempered stable distributions and establish their identifiable parametrization. We prove short and long time behavior of tempered stable Lévy processes and investigate their absolute continuity with respect to the underlying α$\alpha$-stable processes. We find probabilistic representations of tempered stable processes which specifically show how such processes are obtained by cutting (tempering) jumps of stable processes. These representations exhibit α$\alpha$-stable and Gaussian tendencies in tempered stable processes and thus give probabilistic intuition for their study. Such representations can also be used for simulation. We also develop the corresponding representations for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-type processes.     

Law of the iterated logarithm for the periodogram

We consider the almost sure asymptotic behavior of the periodogram of stationary and ergodic sequences. Under mild conditions we establish that the limsup of the periodogram properly normalized identifies almost surely the spectral density function associated with the stationary process. Results for a specified frequency are also given. Our results also lead to the law of the iterated logarithm for the real and imaginary parts of the discrete Fourier transform. The proofs rely on martingale approximations combined with results from harmonic analysis and techniques from ergodic theory. Several applications to linear processes and their functionals, iterated random functions, mixing structures and Markov chains are also presented.     

Representations of the optimal filter in the context of nonlinear filtering of random fields with fractional noise

The problem of nonlinear filtering of multiparameter random fields, observed in the presence of a long-range dependent spatial noise, is considered. When the observation noise is modelled by a persistent fractional Wiener sheet, several pathwise representations of the optimal filter are derived. The representations involve series of multiple stochastic integrals of different types and are particularly important since the evolution equations, satisfied by the best mean-square estimate of the signal random field, have a complicated analytical structure and fail to be proper (measure-valued) stochastic partial differential equations. Several of the above optimal filter representations involve a new family of strong martingale transforms associated to the multiparameter fractional Brownian sheet; the latter martingale family is of independent interest in fractional stochastic calculus of multiparameter random fields.