Multivariate Gaussian criteria in SMAA

We consider stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems with multiple decision makers. In such problems, the uncertainty or inaccuracy of the criteria measurements and the partial or missing preference information can be represented through probability distributions. In many real-life problems the uncertainties of criteria measurements may be dependent. However, it is often difficult to quantify these dependencies. Also, most of the existing methods are unable to handle such dependency information.In this paper, we develop a method for handling dependent uncertainties in stochastic multicriteria group decision-making problems. We measure the criteria, their uncertainties and dependencies using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. Based on the simulation results, we determine for the criteria measurements a joint probability distribution that quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We then use the SMAA-2 stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis method for comparing the alternatives based on the criteria distributions. We demonstrate the use of the method in the context of a strategic decision support model for a retailer operating in the liberated European electricity market.     

Pseudo-criteria versus linear utility function in stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis

Stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a multi-criteria decision support method for multiple decision-makers (DMs) in discrete problems. SMAA does not require explicit or implicit preference information from the DMs. Instead, the method is based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the valuations that would make each alternative the preferred one. Partial preference information can be represented in the weight space analysis through weight distributions. In this paper we compare two variants of the SMAA method using randomly generated test problems with 2–12 criteria and 4–12 alternatives. In the original SMAA, a utility or value function models the DMs' preference structure, and the inaccuracy or uncertainty of the criteria is represented by probability distributions. In SMAA-3, ELECTRE III-type pseudo-criteria are used instead. Both methods compute for each alternative an acceptability index measuring the variety of different valuations that supports this alternative, and a central weight vector representing the typical valuations resulting in this decision. We seek answers to three questions: (1) how similar are the results provided by the decision models, (2) what kind of systematic differences exists between the models, and (3) how could one select indifference and preference thresholds of the pseudo-criteria model to match a utility model with given probability distributions?     

A multiple criteria ranking method based on game cross-evaluation approach

The application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as an alternative multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) tool has been gaining more attentions in the literatures. Doyle (Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 62(1):87?C100, 1995) presents a method of multi-attribute choice based on an application of DEA. In the first part of his method, the straightforward DEA is considered as an idealized process of self-evaluation in which each alternative weighs the attributes in order to maximize its own score (or desirability) relative to the other alternatives. Then, in the second step, each alternative applies its own DEA-derived best weights to each of the other alternatives (i.e., cross-evaluation), then the average of the cross-evaluations that get placed on an alternative is taken as an index of its overall score. In some cases of multiple criteria decision making, direct or indirect competitions exist among the alternatives, while the factor of competition is usually ignored in most of MCDM settings. This paper proposes an approach to evaluate and rank alternatives in MCDM via an extension of DEA method, namely DEA game cross-efficiency model in Liang, Wu, Cook and Zhu (Oper. Res. 56(5):1278?C1288, 2008b), in which each alternative is viewed as a player who seeks to maximize its own score (or desirability), under the condition that the cross-evaluation scores of each of other alternatives does not deteriorate. The game cross-evaluation score is obtained when the alternative??s own maximized scores are averaged. The obtained game cross-evaluation scores are unique and constitute a Nash equilibrium point. Therefore, the results and rankings based upon game cross-evaluation score analysis are more reliable and will benefit the decision makers.     

Determining new possible weight values in PROMETHEE: a procedure based on data envelopment analysis

Operational research (OR) offers efficient tools to support managers in strategic decision-making processes. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA) are two important research areas in OR. These two domains are both based on the evaluation of “objects” according to multiple “points of views”. Within the MCDA framework, choosing appropriate weights for the different criteria often arises as a problem itself for decision makers. As a consequence, researchers have developed original methodologies to help them during this elicitation phase. In this work, we aim to investigate how DEA can be used to propose weights in the context of the PROMETHEE II method. More precisely, we suggest an extension of the so-called “decision maker brain” used in the GAIA plane (also known as PROMETHEE VI) based on DEA. The underlying idea is based on the computation of weights in PROMETHEE (GAIA brain) which are compatible with the DEA analysis. We end this paper with a numerical example.     

Ranking DMUs by using interval DEA cross efficiency matrix with acceptability analysis

Cross efficiency method is an extension of data envelopment analysis (DEA), and has been widely used for ranking performance of decision making units (DMUs). To eliminate the non-uniqueness of cross efficiency scores, the aggressive and benevolent strategies have been proposed as secondary goals to determine the unique cross efficiency score. The current paper aims to propose an alternative strategy which does not consider the preference of the decision maker in choosing aggressive or benevolent strategy. Instead, the paper considers all possible weight sets in weight space when computing the cross efficiency and each DMU is given an interval cross efficiency. By using the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-2) method, all DMUs in the interval cross efficiency matrix (CEM) could be fully ranked according to the acceptability indices. A numerical example about efficiency evaluation to seven academic departments in a university is illustrated.     

Interactive outranking approaches for multicriteria decision-making problems with imprecise information

PROMETHEE is a powerful method, which can solve many multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems. It involves sophisticated preference modelling techniques but requires too much a priori precise information about parameter values (such as criterion weights and thresholds). In this paper, we consider a MCDM problem where alternatives are evaluated on several conflicting criteria, and the criterion weights and/or thresholds are imprecise or unknown to the decision maker (DM). We build robust outranking relations among the alternatives in order to help the DM to rank the alternatives and select the best alternative. We propose interactive approaches based on PROMETHEE method. We develop a decision aid tool called INTOUR, which implements the developed approaches.     

基于新精确函数的区间直觉模糊多属性决策方法

基于区间直觉模糊数隶属度和非隶属度构成的二维几何图形特征给出区间直觉模糊数精确函数的新定义,并将其作为区间直觉模糊数的排序指标,区间直觉模糊数的精确函数值越大,则区间直觉模糊数就越大,进而提出一种权重信息不完全确定的区间直觉模糊多属性决策方法.通过算例分析说明所提出排序指标的有效性和决策方法的可行性.     

An improved method for ranking alternatives in multiple criteria decision analysis

Scoring rules are an important disputable subject in data envelopment analysis (DEA). Various organizations use voting systems whose main object is to rank alternatives. In these methods, the ranks of alternatives are obtained by their associated weights. The method for determining the ranks of alternatives by their weights is an important issue. This problem has been the subject at hand of some authors. We suggest a three-stage method for the ranking of alternatives. In the first stage, the rank position of each alternative is computed based on the best and worst weights in the optimistic and pessimistic cases, respectively. The vector of weights obtained in the first stage is not a singleton. Hence, to deal with this problem, a secondary goal is used in the second stage. In the third stage of our method, the ranks of the alternatives approach the optimistic or pessimistic case. It is mentionable that the model proposed in the third stage is a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model and there are several methods for solving it; we use the weighted sum method in this paper. The model is solved by mixed integer programming. Also, we obtain an interval for the rank of each alternative. We present two models on the basis of the average of ranks in the optimistic and pessimistic cases. The aim of these models is to compute the rank by common weights.     

A compromise solution approach for finding common weights in DEA: an improvement to Kao and Hung's approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is the leading technique for measuring the relative efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs) on the basis of multiple inputs and multiple outputs. In this technique, the weights for inputs and outputs are estimated in the best advantage for each unit so as to maximize its relative efficiency. But, this flexibility in selecting the weights deters the comparison among DMUs on a common base. For dealing with this difficulty, Kao and Hung (2005) proposed a compromise solution approach for generating common weights under the DEA framework. The proposed multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model was derived from the original non-linear DEA model. This paper presents an improvement to Kao and Hung's approach by means of introducing an MCDM model which is derived from a new linear DEA model.     

A lexicographical compromise method for multiple criteria group decision problems with imprecise information

This paper addresses multiple criteria group decision making problems where each group member offers imprecise information on his/her preferences about the criteria. In particular we study the inclusion of this partial information in the decision problem when the individuals’ preferences do not provide a vector of common criteria weights and a compromise preference vector of weights has to be determined as part of the decision process in order to evaluate a finite set of alternatives. We present a method where the compromise is defined by the lexicographical minimization of the maximum disagreement between the value assigned to the alternatives by the group members and the evaluation induced by the compromise weights.     

DEA Models for Identifying Critical Performance Measures

In performance evaluation, it is important to identify both the efficient frontier and the critical measures. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been proven an effective tool for estimating the efficient frontiers, and the optimized DEA weights may be used to identify the critical measures. However, due to multiple DEA optimal weights, a unique set of critical measures may not be obtained for each decision making unit (DMU). Based upon a set of modified DEA models, this paper develops an approach to identify the critical measures for each DMU. Using a set of four Fortune's standard performance measures, capital market value, profit, revenue and number of employees, we perform a performance comparison between the Fortune's e-corporations and 1000 traditional companies. Profit is identified as the critical measure to the performance of e-corporations while revenue the critical measure to the Fortune's 1000 companies. This finding confirms that high revenue does not necessarily mean profit for e-corporations while revenue means a stable proportion of profit for the Fortune's 1000 companies.     

Classifying efficient alternatives in SMAA using cross confidence factors

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods for aiding multicriteria group decision making. These methods are based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the preferences that make each alternative the most preferred one. The main results of the analysis are rank acceptability indices, central weight vectors and confidence factors for different alternatives. The rank acceptability indices describe the variety of different preferences resulting in a certain rank for an alternative; the central weight vectors represent the typical preferences favouring each alternative; and the confidence factors measure whether the criteria data are sufficiently accurate for making an informed decision.In some cases, when the problem involves a large number of efficient alternatives, the analysis may fail to discriminate between them. This situation is revealed by low confidence factors. In this paper we develop cross confidence factors, which are based on computing confidence factors for alternatives using each other’s central weight vectors. The cross confidence factors can be used for classifying efficient alternatives into sets of similar and competing alternatives. These sets are related to the concept of reference sets in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), but generalized for stochastic models. Forming these sets is useful when trying to identify one or more most preferred alternatives, or suitable compromise alternatives. The reference sets can also be used for evaluating whether criteria need to be measured more accurately, and at which alternatives the measurements should be focused. This may cause considerable savings in measurement costs. We demonstrate the use of the cross confidence factors and reference sets using a real-life example.     

Finding common weights based on the DM's preference information

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is basically a linear programming-based technique used for measuring the relative performance of organizational units, referred to as Decision Making Units (DMUs). The flexibility in selecting the weights in standard DEA models deters the comparison among DMUs on a common base. Moreover, these weights are not suitable to measure the preferences of a decision maker (DM). For dealing with the first difficulty, the concept of common weights was proposed in the DEA literature. But, none of the common weights approaches address the second difficulty. This paper proposes an alternative approach that we term as ‘preference common weights’, which is both practical and intellectually consistent with the DEA philosophy. To do this, we introduce a multiple objective linear programming model in which objective functions are input/output variables subject to the constraints similar to the equations that define production possibility set of standard DEA models. Then by using the Zionts–Wallenius method, we can generate common weights as the DM's underlying value structure about objective functions.     

Assessing the performance of biogas plants with multi-criteria and data envelopment analysis

This paper performs an assessment of 41 agricultural biogas plants located in Austria to determine their relative performance in terms of economic, environmental, and social criteria and corresponding indicators. The comparison of these renewable energy conversion plants is based on two complementary analyses. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was conducted to provide measures of radial efficiency relative to the observed frontier of production possibilities. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), using the IRIS/ELECTRE TRI methodology, was conducted to obtain a different perspective on the results, and as a tool that would enable to incorporate managerial preferences easily. To be able to use IRIS while keeping the spirit behind DEA, the evaluation criteria were defined as different output/input efficiency ratios, and no information about criteria weights was introduced at the outset. The results suggest that MCDA, and the use of IRIS in particular, constitutes a useful approach that can be applied in a complementary way to DEA.     

An interactive method for multiple criteria group decision analysis based on interval type-2 fuzzy sets and its application to medical decision making

The theory of interval type-2 fuzzy sets provides an intuitive and computationally feasible way of addressing uncertain and ambiguous information in decision-making fields. The aim of this paper is to develop an interactive method for handling multiple criteria group decision-making problems, in which information about criterion weights is incompletely (imprecisely or partially) known and the criterion values are expressed as interval type-2 trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. With respect to the relative importance of multiple decision-makers and group consensus of fuzzy opinions, a hybrid averaging approach combining weighted averages and ordered weighted averages was employed to construct the collective decision matrix. An integrated programming model was then established based on the concept of signed distance-based closeness coefficients to determine the importance weights of criteria and the priority ranking of alternatives. Subsequently, an interactive procedure was proposed to modify the model according to the decision-makers’ feedback on the degree of satisfaction toward undesirable solution results for the sake of gradually improving the integrated model. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed methods are illustrated with a medical decision-making problem of patient-centered medicine concerning basilar artery occlusion. A comparative analysis with other approaches was performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

A robust data envelopment analysis model with different scenarios

Input and output data, under uncertainty, must be taken into account as an essential part of data envelopment analysis (DEA) models in practice. Many researchers have dealt with this kind of problem using fuzzy approaches, DEA models with interval data or probabilistic models. This paper presents an approach to scenario-based robust optimization for conventional DEA models. To consider the uncertainty in DEA models, different scenarios are formulated with a specified probability for input and output data instead of using point estimates. The robust DEA model proposed is aimed at ranking decision-making units (DMUs) based on their sensitivity analysis within the given set of scenarios, considering both feasibility and optimality factors in the objective function. The model is based on the technique proposed by Mulvey et al. (1995) for solving stochastic optimization problems. The effect of DMUs on the product possibility set is calculated using the Monte Carlo method in order to extract weights for feasibility and optimality factors in the goal programming model. The approach proposed is illustrated and verified by a case study of an engineering company.     

Multicriteria fuzzy decision-making method using entropy weights-based correlation coefficients of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets

A multicriteria fuzzy decision-making method based on weighted correlation coefficients using entropy weights is proposed under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment for the some situations where the information about criteria weights for alternatives is completely unknown. To determine the entropy weights with respect to a decision matrix provided as interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs), we propose two entropy measures for IVIFSs and establish an entropy weight model, which can be used to determine the criteria weights on alternatives, and then propose an evaluation formula of weighted correlation coefficient between an alternative and the ideal alternative. The alternatives can be ranked and the most desirable one(s) can be selected according to the values of the weighted correlation coefficients. Finally, two applied examples demonstrate the applicability and benefit of the proposed method: it is capable for handling the multicriteria fuzzy decision-making problems with completely unknown weights for criteria.     

基于Pythagorean模糊熵的风险型决策方法——考虑后悔与失望规避

针对决策信息为Pythagorean模糊数,属性权重完全未知的风险型多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于Pythagorean模糊熵的考虑决策者后悔与失望规避心理行为的决策方法。首先,计算备选方案和理想点各属性的效用值,从而获得各备选方案的后悔-欣喜值、失望-愉悦值及感知效用值。其次,构建了一种Pythagorean模糊熵,并给出基于该Pythagorean模糊熵的属性权重确定方法,利用属性权重加权求和获得备选方案综合感知效用值,从而对方案进行排序。最后,通过算例说明方法的可行性和优点,并分析了后悔规避系数δ和失望规避系数τ对决策结果的影响。     

Automatic generation of efficient policy alternatives via simulation-optimization

Simulation-optimization methods can be used for many practical and industrial problems in which some or all of the system components are stochastic. These techniques can be applied to a wide variety of problem types, including those in which some functions cannot be represented analytically. In contrast to earlier function optimization approaches, in this paper, these techniques are used for generating several new policy options for planning applications. By using this approach, multiple policy alternatives can be created that meet established system criteria, while simultaneously remaining acceptable and implementable in practice. A subsequent comparative evaluation of the alternatives would be undertaken prior to final policy selection. An illustrative application of the method is provided to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach in the planning phase of policy design.     

In the determination of weight sets to compute cross-efficiency ratios in DEA

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) measures the production performance of decision-making units (DMUs) which consume multiple inputs and produce multiple outputs. Although DEA has become a very popular method of performance measure, it still suffers from some shortcomings. For instance, one of its drawbacks is that multiple solutions exist in the linear programming solutions of efficient DMUs. The obtained weight set is just one of the many optimal weight sets that are available. Then why use this weight set instead of the others especially when this weight set is used for cross-evaluation? Another weakness of DEA is that extremely diverse or unusual values of some input or output weights might be obtained for DMUs under assessment. Zero input and output weights are not uncommon in DEA. The main objective of this paper is to develop a new methodology which applies discriminant analysis, super-efficiency DEA model and mixed-integer linear programming to choose suitable weight sets to be used in computing cross-evaluation. An advantage of this new method is that each obtained weight set can reflect the relative strengths of the efficient DMU under consideration. Moreover, the method also attempts to preserve the original classificatory result of DEA, and in addition this method produces much less zero weights than DEA in our computational results.