Stability and bifurcation in epidemic models describing the transmission of toxoplasmosis in human and cat populations

A five‐dimensional ordinary differential equation model describing the transmission of Toxoplamosis gondii disease between human and cat populations is studied in this paper. Self‐diffusion modeling the spatial dynamics of the T. gondii disease is incorporated in the ordinary differential equation model. The normalized version of both models where the unknown functions are the proportions of the susceptible, infected, and controlled individuals in the total population are analyzed. The main results presented herein are that the ODE model undergoes a trans‐critical bifurcation, the system has no periodic orbits inside the positive octant, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when we restrict the model to inside of the first octant. Furthermore, a local linear stability analysis for the spatially homogeneous equilibrium points of the reaction diffusion model is carried out, and the global stability of both the disease‐free and endemic equilibria are established for the reaction–diffusion system when restricted to inside of the first octant. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to support our theoretical results and to predict some scenarios about the spread of the disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of emergent carrying capacity in an eco‐epidemiological system

The paper explores an eco‐epidemiological model of a predator–prey type, where the prey population is subject to infection. The model is basically a combination of S‐I type model and a Rosenzweig–MacArthur predator–prey model. The novelty of this contribution is to consider different competition coefficients within the prey population, which leads to the emergent carrying capacity. We explicitly separate the competition between non‐infected and infected individuals. This emergent carrying capacity is markedly different to the explicit carrying capacities that have been considered in many eco‐epidemiological models. We observed that different intra‐class and inter‐class competition can facilitate the coexistence of susceptible prey‐infected prey–predator, which is impossible for the case of the explicit carrying capacity model. We also show that these findings are closely associated with bi‐stability. The present system undergoes bi‐stability in two different scenarios: (a) bi‐stability between the planner equilibria where susceptible prey co‐exists with predator or infected prey and (b) bi‐stability between co‐existence equilibrium and the planner equilibrium where susceptible prey coexists with infected prey; have been discussed. The conditions for which the system is to be permanent and the global stability of the system around disease‐free equilibrium are worked out. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of vaccines on backward bifurcation in a fractional order HIV model

In this paper, a homogeneous-mixing population fractional model for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission, which incorporates anti-HIV preventive vaccines, is proposed. The dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when there is no vaccine. However, it has been shown that when the efficacy or dosage of vaccines is low, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium point (EE) when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. A new critical value at the turning point should be deduced as a new threshold of disease eradication. We have generalized the integer LaSalle invariant set theorem into fractional system and given some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium point being globally asymptotical stability. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that improving the efficiency and dosage of vaccines are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

Global dynamics of a delayed SEIS infectious disease model with logistic growth and saturation incidence

In this paper, a delayed Susceptible‐Exposed‐Infectious‐Susceptible (SEIS) infectious disease model with logistic growth and saturation incidence is investigated, where the time delay describes the latent period of the disease. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease‐free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium is discussed. The existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium is established. By using the persistence theory for infinite dimensional dynamic systems, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the system is permanent. By means of suitable Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium, respectively. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On an eco-epidemiological model with prey harvesting and predator switching: Local and global perspectives

In this paper, we study an eco-epidemiological model where prey disease is modeled by a Susceptible-Infected (SI) scheme. Saturation incidence kinetics is used to model the contact process. The predator population adapt switching technique among susceptible and infected prey. The prey species is supposed to be commercially viable and undergo constant non-selective harvesting. We study the stability aspects of the basic and the switching models around the infection-free state and the infected steady state from a local as well as a global perspective. Our aim is to study the role of harvesting and switching on the dynamics of disease propagation and/or eradication. A comparison of the local and global dynamical behavior in terms of important system parameters is obtained. Numerical simulations are done to illustrate the analytical results.     

An age-structured within-host HIV model with T-cell competition

Recent studies demonstrate that resource competition is an essential component of T-cell proliferation in HIV progression, which can contribute instructively to the disease development. In this paper, we formulate an age-structured within-host HIV model, in the form of a hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE) for infected target cells coupled with two ordinary differential equations for uninfected T-cells and the virions, to explore the effects of both the T-cell competition and viral shedding variations on the viral dynamics. The basic reproduction number is derived for a general viral production rate which determines the local stability of the infection-free equilibrium. Two special forms of viral production rates, which are extensively investigated in previous literature, the delayed exponential distribution and a step function rate, are further investigated, where the original system can be reduced into systems of delay differential equations. It is confirmed that there exists a unique positive equilibrium for two special viral production rates when the basic reproduction number is greater than one. However, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where two positive steady states coexist with the infection-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than one.     

An eco‐epidemiological predator–prey model where predators distinguish between susceptible and infected prey

A predator–prey model with disease amongst the prey and ratio‐dependent functional response for both infected and susceptible prey is proposed and its features analysed. This work is based on previous mathematical models to analyse the important ecosystem of the Salton Sea in Southern California and New Mexico where birds (particularly pelicans) prey on fish (particularly tilapia). The dynamics of the system around each of the ecologically meaningful equilibria are presented. Natural disease control is considered before studying the impact of the disease in the absence of predators and the interaction of predators and healthy prey and the disease effects on predators in the absence of healthy prey. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical simulation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alternative prey source coupled with prey recovery enhance stability between migratory prey and their predator in the presence of disease

An eco-epidemiological model is considered where the prey population is migratory in nature. To incorporate the temporal pattern of the avian migration into the model, a time dependent recruitment rate was considered with a general functional response. In the numerical simulation we substitute the general functional response with Holling type-I and Holling type-II functional responses. It was observed that the qualitative behaviour of the system does not depend on the choice of the functional responses. The results showed that the system could be made disease free by either decreasing the contact rate or simultaneously increasing the predation and the recovery rate. Moreover, it was observed that the presence of an alternative food source for the predator population helps in the coexistence of all the species.     

Disease‐selective predation may lead to prey extinction

In real world bio‐communities, predational choice plays a key role to the persistence of the prey population. Predator's ‘sense’ of choice for predation towards the infected and noninfected prey is an important factor for those bio‐communities. There are examples where the predator can distinguish the infected prey and avoids those at the time of predation. Based on the examples, we propose two mathematical models and observe the dynamics of the systems around biologically feasible equilibria. For disease‐selective predation model there is a high risk of prey extinction. On the other hand, for non‐disease selective predation both populations co‐exist. Local stability analysis and global stability analysis of the positive interior equilibrium are performed. Moreover, conditions for the permanence of the system are obtained. Finally, we conclude that strictly disease‐selective predation may not be acceptable for the persistence of the prey population. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stage-structured Harvest Models

We formulate a stage-structured population model where the population is divided to two classes, the juveniles and the adults. Then, we include harvest in the model and assume that the harvesting is only on adults. The cases where the harvesting rate is constant, proportional to the amount of adults, or of Holling-II type are studied. While the model dynamics are relatively simple when the harvesting rate is proportional, the model system with a constant or a Holling-II type harvesting rate can have multiple positive equilibria. We explore the existence of all possible equilibria and investigate their stability. We also give numerical examples to confirm our findings.     

Robust Approximate Zeros in Banach Space

We extend Smale’s concept of approximate zeros of an analytic function on a Banach space to two computational models that account for errors in the computation: first, the weak model where the computations are done with a fixed precision; and second, the strong model where the computations are done with varying precision. For both models, we develop a notion of robust approximate zero and derive a corresponding robust point estimate. A useful specialization of an analytic function on a Banach space is a system of integer polynomials. Given such a zero-dimensional system, we bound the complexity of computing an absolute approximation to a root of the system using the strong model variant of Newton’s method initiated from a robust approximate zero. The bound is expressed in terms of the condition number of the system and is a generalization of a well-known bound of Brent to higher dimensions.      

A periodic testing model for a preparedness system with a defective state

This paper considers the periodic testing of a preparednesssystem where in addition to working and failed state recognition,a working but defective state also exists. Based upon the delaytime model, an expected availability model is derived and evaluatedas a function of the constant inspection period. The model enablesthe range of inspection periods which satisfy a pre-set availabilitycriterion to be established, and the optimal availability inspectionperiod to be identified. Variants of the basic model are considered including: wherea delay time period exists, but the technology to detect a defectis not available; where the delay time is zero, so that onlyfailures are detected; and where the system is replaced on aregular basis without any state testing. These variants enablethe value and effectiveness of the ability to detect defectsand to detect failures to be identified and quantified. The models are demonstrated in the context of a missile buffersystem, where the numerical example clarifies the value of modellingand the insight into the potential effectiveness of defect andfailure detection.     

Chaos in delay-induced Leslie–Gower prey–predator–parasite model and its control through prey harvesting

In this paper we analyze a delay-induced predator–prey–parasite model with prey harvesting, where the predator–prey interaction is represented by Leslie–Gower type model with type II functional response. Infection is assumed to spread horizontally from one infected prey to another susceptible prey following mass action law. Spreading of disease is not instantaneous but mediated by a time lag to take into account the time required for incubation process. Both the susceptible and infected preys are subjected to linear harvesting. The analysis is accomplished in two phases. First we analyze the delay-induced predator–prey–parasite system in absence of harvesting and proved the local & global dynamics of different (six) equilibrium points. It is proved that the delay has no influence on the stability of different equilibrium points except the interior one. Delay may cause instability in an otherwise stable interior equilibrium point of the system and larger delay may even produce chaos if the infection rate is also high. In the second phase, we explored the dynamics of the delay-induced harvested system. It is shown that harvesting of prey population can suppress the abrupt fluctuations in the population densities and can stabilize the system when it exceeds some threshold value.     

A coupled system of ODEs and quasilinear hyperbolic PDEs arising in a multiscale blood flow model

We study a coupled system of ordinary differential equations and quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations that models a blood circulatory system in the human body. The mathematical system is a multiscale model in which a part of the system, where the flow can be regarded as Newtonian and homogeneous, and the vessels are long and large, is modeled by a set of hyperbolic PDEs in a one-spatial-dimensional network, and in the other part, where either vessels are too thin or the flow pattern is too complicated (such as in the heart), the flow is modeled as a lumped element by a set of ordinary differential equations as an analog of an electric circuit. The mathematical system consists of pairs of PDEs, one pair for each vessel, coupled at each junction through a system of ODEs. This model is a generalization of the widely studied models of arterial networks. We give a proof of the well-posedness of the initial-boundary value problem by showing that the classical solution exists, is unique, and depends continuously on initial, boundary and forcing functions and their derivatives.     

The effect of immigrant communities coming from higher incidence tuberculosis regions to a host country

We introduce a new tuberculosis (TB) mathematical model, with 25 state-space variables where 15 are evolution disease states (EDSs), which generalises previous models and takes into account the (seasonal) flux of populations between a high incidence TB country (A) and a host country (B) with low TB incidence, where (B) is divided into a community (G) with high percentage of people from (A) plus the rest of the population (C). Contrary to some beliefs, related to the fact that agglomerations of individuals increase proportionally to the disease spread, analysis of the model shows that the existence of semi-closed communities are beneficial for the TB control from a global viewpoint. The model and techniques proposed are applied to a case-study with concrete parameters, which model the situation of Angola (A) and Portugal (B), in order to show its relevance and meaningfulness. Simulations show that variations of the transmission coefficient on the origin country has a big influence on the number of infected (and infectious) individuals on the community and the host country. Moreover, there is an optimal ratio for the distribution of individuals in (C) versus (G), which minimizes the reproduction number \(R_0\). Such value does not give the minimal total number of infected individuals in all (B), since such is attained when the community (G) is completely isolated (theoretical scenario). Sensitivity analysis and curve fitting on \(R_0\) and on EDSs are pursuit in order to understand the TB effects in the global statistics, by measuring the variability of the relevant parameters. We also show that the TB transmission rate \(\beta \) does not act linearly on \(R_0\), as it is common in compartment models where system feedback or group interaction do not occur. Further, we find the most important parameters for the increase of each EDS.     

STABILITY ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL VACCINATION OF A WATERBORNE DISEASE MODEL WITH MULTIPLE WATER SOURCES

Waterborne diseases are among the major health problems facing the world today. This is especially true in developing countries where there is limited access to clean water. In such settings, even when multiple water sources exist, they tend to be contaminated. In this paper, we formulate a waterborne disease model where individuals are exposed to multiple contaminated water sources. The fundamental mathematical features of the model such as the basic reproduction number and final epidemic size are obtained and analyzed accordingly. The global stability analysis of the disease‐free equilibrium is performed. The model is later extended by considering vaccination as a possible control intervention strategy. An optimal control problem is constructed to investigate the existence of an optimal control function that reduces the spread of the disease with minimum cost. We support our analytical predictions by carrying out numerical simulations using published and estimated data from the recent cholera outbreak in Haiti.     

Stochastic Epidemic SEIRS Models with a Constant Latency Period

In this paper, we consider the stability of a class of deterministic and stochastic SEIRS epidemic models with delay. Indeed, we assume that the transmission rate could be stochastic and the presence of a latency period of r consecutive days, where r is a fixed positive integer, in the “exposed” individuals class E. Studying the eigenvalues of the linearized system, we obtain conditions for the stability of the free disease equilibrium, in both the cases of the deterministic model with and without delay. In this latter case, we also get conditions for the stability of the coexistence equilibrium. In the stochastic case, we are able to derive a concentration result for the random fluctuations and then, using the Lyapunov method, to check that under suitable assumptions the free disease equilibrium is still stable.     

Dynamic data envelopment analysis: A relational analysis

This paper proposes a dynamic data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to measure the system and period efficiencies at the same time for multi-period systems, where quasi-fixed inputs or intermediate products are the source of inter-temporal dependence between consecutive periods. A mathematical relationship is derived in which the complement of the system efficiency is a linear combination of those of the period efficiencies. The proposed model is also more discriminative than the existing ones in identifying the systems with better performance. Taiwanese forests, where the forest stock plays the role of quasi-fixed input, are used to illustrate this approach. The results show that the method for calculating the system efficiency in the literature produces over-estimated scores when the dynamic nature is ignored. This makes it necessary to conduct a dynamic analysis whenever data is available.     

Stability of a predator–prey model with refuge effect

We consider a predator–prey model, where some prey are completely free from predation within a temporal or spacial refuge. The most common type of spacial refuge, that we investigate here, takes the form where a constant proportion of the prey population is protected. The model is a modification of the classical Nicholson–Bailey host-parasitoid model. In this paper, we study the effect of the presence of refuge on the stability and bifurcation of the system. Moreover, we provide a detailed analysis of the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation of the model.     

A general repeat inspection plan for dependent multicharacteristic critical components

A component is critical if it causes disaster or a very high cost upon failure. Multicharacteristic critical components exist in many systems. Such components could be a part of an aircraft, space shuttle, a special weapon system or a gas ignition system. In many situations, characteristics’ failures of these components are statistically dependent. In this paper, a new inspection plan for such components is proposed. A mathematical model that depicts the plan is developed and an example demonstrating the results of the model is given. The advantage of this model over the other model where independence of the characteristics’ failure is assumed for the case of dependency is illustrated. The model resulted in an average of 32.4% reduction in cost compared to the situation where the dependency case is solved assuming statistical independence.