Explicit formula of optimal replacement under additive shock processes

The optimal machine replacement problem is discussed for the case, where damage processes are general jump processes. Considering an expected average cost and an expected discounted cost, an explicit formula of optimal replacement time is shown under appropriate conditions for damage processes.     

自动化车床最优刀具检测模型研究

针对自动化车床工序最优检测和刀具更换问题进行了探讨.将定期检测和将刀具更换作用于同一工序流程,在只考虑刀具故障条件下,通过概率论和更新过程理论建立了以单位时间内期望费用为目标函数的数学模型,以检测间隔和刀具更换间隔为策略,确定最优的策略使得目标函数达到最小,并求出了经长期运行单位时间内期望费用的明显表达式.最后还对结果进行了讨论.     

Nonstationary Continuous-Time Markov Control Processes with Discounted Costs on Infinite Horizon

This paper concerns nonstationary continuous-time Markov control processes on Polish spaces, with the infinite-horizon discounted cost criterion. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for a control policy to be optimal and asymptotically optimal. In addition, under suitable hypotheses, it is shown that the successive approximation procedure converges in the sense that the sequence of finite-horizon optimal cost functions and the corresponding optimal control policies both converge.     

Risk-sensitive average continuous-time Markov decision processes with unbounded rates

Abstract

In this paper we study the risk-sensitive average cost criterion for continuous-time Markov decision processes in the class of all randomized Markov policies. The state space is a denumerable set, and the cost and transition rates are allowed to be unbounded. Under the suitable conditions, we establish the optimality equation of the auxiliary risk-sensitive first passage optimization problem and obtain the properties of the corresponding optimal value function. Then by a technique of constructing the appropriate approximating sequences of the cost and transition rates and employing the results on the auxiliary optimization problem, we show the existence of a solution to the risk-sensitive average optimality inequality and develop a new approach called the risk-sensitive average optimality inequality approach to prove the existence of an optimal deterministic stationary policy. Furthermore, we give some sufficient conditions for the verification of the simultaneous Doeblin condition, use a controlled birth and death system to illustrate our conditions and provide an example for which the risk-sensitive average optimality strict inequality occurs.     

具有平均费用的非平稳Markov决策过程

本文研究了在一般状态空间具有平均费用的非平稳Ｍａｒｋｏｖ决策过程，把在平稳情形用补充的折扣模型的最优方程来建立平均费用的最优方程的结果，推广到非平稳的情形．利用这个结果证明了最优策略的存在性．     

Optimally maintaining a Markovian deteriorating system with limited imperfect repairs

We consider the problem of optimally maintaining a periodically inspected system that deteriorates according to a discrete-time Markov process and has a limit on the number of repairs that can be performed before it must be replaced. After each inspection, a decision maker must decide whether to repair the system, replace it with a new one, or leave it operating until the next inspection, where each repair makes the system more susceptible to future deterioration. If the system is found to be failed at an inspection, then it must be either repaired or replaced with a new one at an additional penalty cost. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted cost due to operation, inspection, maintenance, replacement and failure. We formulate an infinite-horizon Markov decision process model and derive key structural properties of the resulting optimal cost function that are sufficient to establish the existence of an optimal threshold-type policy with respect to the system’s deterioration level and cumulative number of repairs. We also explore the sensitivity of the optimal policy to inspection, repair and replacement costs. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the structure and the sensitivity of the optimal policy.     

On the average optimality of circular assignment policy

We consider a parallel queueing system with identical exponential servers. Customers arrive according to a renewal process and upon arrival are immediately assigned to those queues. The problem is to find an optimal assignment policy minimizing the longrun average expected cost, without information about the current queue lengths, but with the initial queue-length distributions and information about the past arrival process and assignment of customers. In this paper, it is shown that the so-called circular assignment policy is optimal under mild conditions on the initial queue-length distributions and the holding cost.     

Interval optimal control problem in a Hilbert space

An optimal control problem for a system involving an interval parameter is considered. The concepts of a universal optimal state and a universal optimal control are introduced. The existence and uniqueness of a universal solution to the interval optimal control problem is proved, and an algorithm for its determination is presented. The interval optimal control problem for a system described by the boundary value problem for a second-order ordinary differential equation is solved as an example.     

Optimal designs with respect to Elfving's partial minimax criterion in polynomial regression

For the polynomial regression model on the interval [a, b] the optimal design problem with respect to Elfving's minimax criterion is considered. It is shown that the minimax problem is related to the problem of determining optimal designs for the estimation of the individual parameters. Sufficient conditions are given guaranteeing that an optimal design for an individual parameter in the polynomial regression is also minimax optimal for a subset of the parameters. The results are applied to polynomial regression on symmetric intervals [–b, b] (b1) and on nonnegative or nonpositive intervals where the conditions reduce to very simple inequalities, involving the degree of the underlying regression and the index of the maximum of the absolute coefficients of the Chebyshev polynomial of the first kind on the given interval. In the most cases the minimax optimal design can be found explicitly.Research supported in part by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.Research supported in part by NSF Grant DMS 9101730.     

Optimal Continuous Policies for Repair and Replacement

This paper investigates the problem of finding optimal replacement policies for equipment subject to failures with randomly distributed repair costs, the degree of reliability of the equipment being considered as a state of a Markov process. Algorithms have been devised to find optimal combined policies both for preventive replacement and for replacement in case of failure by using repair-limit strategies.First a simple procedure to obtain an optimal discrete policy is described. Then an algorithm is formulated in order to calculate an optimal continuous policy: it is shown how the optimal repair limit is the solution to an ordinary differential equation, and how the value of the repair limit determines the optimal preventive replacement policy.     

A superharmonic approach to solving infinite horizon partially observable Markov decision problems

In this paper we use an approach which uses a superharmonic property of a sequence of functions generated by an algorithm to show that these functions converge in a non-increasing manner to the optimal value function for our problem, and bounds are given for the loss of optimality if the computational process is terminated at any iteration. The basic procedure is to add an additional linear term at each iteration, selected by solving a particular optimisation problem, for which primal and dual linear programming formulations are given.     

Optimal repair–replacement policies for a system with two types of failures

In this paper, the optimal replacement problem is investigated for a system with two types of failures. One type of failure is repairable, which is conducted by a repairman when it occurs, and the other is unrepairable, which leads to a replacement of the system at once. The repair of the system is not “as good as new”. The consecutive operating times of the system after repair form a decreasing geometric process, while the repair times after failure are assumed to be independent and identically distributed. Replacement policy N is adopted, where N is the number of repairable failures. The system will be replaced at the Nth repairable failure or at the unrepairable failure, whichever occurs first. Two replacement models are considered, one is based on the limiting availability and the other based on the long-run average cost rate of the system. We give the explicit expressions for the limiting availability and the long-run average cost rate of the system under policy N, respectively. By maximizing the limiting availability A(N) and minimizing the long-run average cost rate C(N), we theoretically obtain the optimal replacement policies N^∗ in both cases. Finally, some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.     

Optimal warranty policies for systems with imperfect repair

We investigate a system whose basic warranty coverage is minimal repair up to a specified warranty length. An additional service is offered whereby first failure is restored up to the consumers’ chosen level of repair. The problem is studied under two system replacement strategies: periodic maintenance before and after warranty. It turns out that our model generalizes the model of Rinsaka and Sandoh [K. Rinsaka, H. Sandoh, A stochastic model with an additional warranty contract, Computers and Mathematics with Applications 51 (2006) 179–188] and the model of Yeh et al. [R.H. Yeh, M.Y. Chen, C.Y. Lin, Optimal periodic replacement policy for repairable products under free-repair warranty, European Journal of Operational Research 176 (2007) 1678–1686]. We derive the optimal maintenance period and optimal level of repair based on the structures of the cost function and failure rate function. We show that under certain assumptions, the optimal repair level for additional service is an increasing function of the replacement time. We provide numerical studies to verify some of our results.     

Operational asset replacement strategy: A real options approach

This paper analyses the problem of replacement by investigating the optimal moment of investment replacement in a given tax environment with a given depreciation policy. An operation and maintenance cost minimization model, based on the definition of equivalent annual cost, is applied to a real options paradigm. The developed methodology allows for an innovative evaluation of the flexibility of replacement process analysis. A new two-factor evaluation function is introduced to quantify decisions on asset replacement under a unique cycle environment. This study improves upon previous findings in the literature as it accounts for autonomous salvage value processes. Based on partial differential equations, this model achieves a general analytical solution and particular numerical solution. The results differ significantly from those observed in one-factor models by showing evidence of over-evaluation in optimal levels of replacement, and by confirming suspicions that different types of uncertainties produce non-monotonous effects on the optimal replacement level. The scientific contribution of this study lies in new and stronger approaches to equivalent annual cost literature, supplying an algorithm for operation and maintenance cost minimization that is conditioned by autonomous salvage value. This study also contributes to the real options literature by developing a two-factor model with Brownian processes applied to asset replacement.     

NP-Hardness of checking the unichain condition in average cost MDPs

The unichain condition requires that every policy in an MDP result in a single ergodic class, and guarantees that the optimal average cost is independent of the initial state. We show that checking whether the unichain condition fails to hold is an NP-complete problem. We conclude with a brief discussion of the merits of the more general weak accessibility condition.     

A holding cost bound for the economic lot-sizing problem with time-invariant cost parameters

We show that in an optimal solution of the economic lot-sizing problem the total holding cost in an order interval is bounded from above by a quantity proportional to the setup cost and the logarithm of the number of periods in the interval. We present two applications of this result.     

Heavy traffic analysis of controlled multiplexing systems

The paper develops the mathematics of the heavy traffic approach to the control and optimal control problem for multiplexing systems, where there are many mutually independent sources which feed into a single channel via a multiplexer (or of networks composed of such subsystems). Due to the widely varying bit rates over all sources, control over admission, bandwidth, etc., is needed to assure good performance. Optimal control and heavy traffic analysis has been shown to yield systems with greatly improved performance. Indeed, the heavy traffic approach covers many cases of great current interest, and provides a useful and practical approach to problems of analysis and control arising in modern high speed telecommunications. Past works on the heavy traffic approach to the multiplexing problem concentrated on the uncontrolled system or on the use of the heavy traffic limit control problem for applications, and did not provide details of the proofs. This is done in the current paper. The basic control problem for the physical system is hard, and the heavy traffic approach provides much simplification. Owing to the presence of the control, as well as to the fact that the cost function of main interest is “ergodic”, the problem cannot be fully treated with “classical” methods of heavy traffic analysis for queueing networks. A basic result is that the optimal average costs per unit time for the physical problem converge to the optimal cost per unit time for the limit stationary process as the number of sources and the time interval goes to infinity. This convergence is both in the mean and pathwise senses. Furthermore, a “nice” nearly optimal control for the limit system provides nearly optimal values for the physical system, under heavy traffic, in both a mean and pathwise sense. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The opportunistic replacement problem: theoretical analyses and numerical tests

We consider a model for determining optimal opportunistic maintenance schedules w.r.t. a maximum replacement interval. This problem generalizes that of Dickman et?al. (J Oper Res Soc India 28:165?C175, 1991) and is a natural starting point for modelling replacement schedules of more complex systems. We show that this basic opportunistic replacement problem is NP-hard, that the convex hull of the set of feasible replacement schedules is full-dimensional, that all the inequalities of the model are facet-inducing, and present a new class of facets obtained through a ${\{0, \frac{1}{2}\}}$ -Chvátal?CGomory rounding. For costs monotone with time, a class of elimination constraints is introduced to reduce the computation time; it allows maintenance only when the replacement of at least one component is necessary. For costs decreasing with time, these constraints eliminate non-optimal solutions. When maintenance occasions are fixed, the remaining problem is stated as a linear program and solved by a greedy procedure. Results from a case study on aircraft engine maintenance illustrate the advantage of the optimization model over simpler policies. We include the new class of facets in a branch-and-cut framework and note a decrease in the number of branch-and-bound nodes and simplex iterations for most instance classes with time dependent costs. For instance classes with time independent costs and few components the elimination constraints are used favorably. For fixed maintenance occasions the greedy procedure reduces the computation time as compared with linear programming techniques for all instances tested.     

THE ROLE OF STOCHASTIC MONOTONICITY IN THE DECISION TO CONSERVE OR HARVEST OLD-GROWTH FOREST

The problem of when, if ever, a stand of old-growth forest should be harvested is formulated as an optimal stopping problem, and a decision rule to maximize the expected present value of amenity services plus timber benefits is found analytically. This solution can be thought of as providing the “correct” way in which cost-benefit analysis should be carried out. Future values of amenity services provided by the standing forest and or timber are considered to be uncertain and are modeled by Geometric Poisson Jump (GPJ) processes. This specification avoids the ambiguity which arises with Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) models, as to which form of stochastic integral (Itô or Stratonovich) should be employed, but more importantly allows for monotonic (yet stochastic) processes. It is shown that monotonicity (or lack of it) in the value of amenity services relative to timber values plays an important part in the solution. If amenity values never go down (or never go up) relative to timber values, then the certain-equivalence cost-benefit procedure provides the optimal solution, and there is no option value. It is only to the extent that the relative valuations can change direction that the certainty-equivalence procedure becomes sub-optimal and option value arises.     

Optimal periodic replacement policy for repairable products under free-repair warranty

This paper investigates the effects of a free-repair warranty on the periodic replacement policy for a repairable product. Cost models are developed for both a warranted and a non-warranted product, and the corresponding optimal periodic replacement policies are derived such that the long-run expected cost rate is minimized. For a product with an increasing failure rate function, structural properties of these optimal policies are obtained. By comparing these optimal policies, we show that the optimal replacement period for a warranted product should be adjusted toward the end of the warranty period. Finally, examples are given to numerically illustrate the impact of a product warranty on the optimal periodic replacement policy.