基于粒子群算法的捕食者-食饵模型的参数估计

针对捕食者-食饵模型参数估计问题,基于三次Hermite插值多项式,提出了一种基于粒子群优化算法的高精度参数估计方法.数值仿真实验表明,本文提出的参数估计方法可以更精确地计算出相关参数.     

系统动力学模型参数的统计估计问题

参数估计是建立系统动力学模型重要的一步。参数估计和建立方程、模型测试的过程紧密联系着。本文不对系统动力学模型参数估计方法作全面的阐述,只侧重对人们所关注的,如何用统计方法估计系统动力学模型参数的问题进行探讨。并对现有的统计估计方法的特点略作评价。本文包括:如何修改系统动力学模型使适用统计估计技术;如何把单方     

基于卫星无源探测的飞行器主动段轨道估计

首先提出了一种在双星无源飞行器主动段探测中,可同时估计双星测量的系统误差并给出目标预测轨道的方法.将卫星测量值误差在小角度条件下转化为卫星测量轴的偏转角,以双星逐点交汇定位法得出的轨道为基准估计系统误差,利用最小二乘思想将模型参数估计问题转化为优化问题,使用遗传算法对目标飞行器模型参数进行估计.而后讨论了一种通过加强模型约束,由单星无源探测估计目标轨道的方法.     

基于增广的广义卡尔曼滤波模型的高精度参数估计

针对捕食模型、利用已知观测数据、在非线性最小二乘准则下,建立了基于增广的广义卡尔曼滤波模型来解决噪声背景下的高精度参数估计问题,并予以了验证.提出以相平面方程为约束的初值搜索算法,利用Matlab优化工具箱、深度搜索和剪枝加速等技术来提高搜索速度.还建立了二重规划模型以解决观测时间有误差时的高精度估计问题,并对时间误差作了正态分布检验.     

基于EM算法隐Markov模型参数估计

描述最大似然参数估计问题,介绍如何用EM算法求解最大似然参数估计.首先给出EM算法的抽象形式,然后介绍EM算法的一个应用:求隐Markov模型中的参数估计.用EM算法推导出隐Markov模型中参数的迭代公式.     

几种参数估计方法的教学要点

对几种常用参数估计方法进行了归纳总结,特别对完全数据、分组数据、删失数据和截断数据的极大似然估计给予了详细介绍,用似然函数一般形式可方便处理各类数据的参数估计.     

一种基于EKF的弹丸最优速度预测算法

弹丸运动速度的高精度测量是测量弹丸膛内其他运行参数的基础.采用极值法测量弹丸运动速度时,传统的做法是直接对解算出的速度信息进行数据拟合,用拟合结果去描述弹丸速度信息,这样做在一些工程应用中虽然能达到技术指标,但误差还是较大.提出基于扩展卡尔曼滤波的预测算法,对极值法解算出的弹丸速度信息进行最优预测,进一步提高了弹丸速度的测量精度.通过实测信号进行验证分析,弹丸速度的测量值更加逼近理论值,误差更小,方法具有工程应用价值.     

多元广义泊松分布的参数估计与诊断

广义泊松分布是普通泊松分布的自然推广,克服均值与方差相等的局限性.在计数数据中,常常会有多变量的情形,比如保险保单定价.因此文章考虑多元广义泊松分布的参数估计和假设检验问题,针对共协方差多元广义泊松模型提出两种参数估计的方法,矩估计方法和极大似然估计方法,并比较两种方法的优劣性.文章就多元广义泊松分布的假设检验问题,主要探讨了其退化检验及独立性检验,由于参数及变量较多,运用似然比检验方法构造服从卡方分布的检验统计量.最后,运用多元广义泊松理论分析不同地区森林发生火灾的次数,首先用文中提到的检验方法诊断数据是否可以用多元广义泊松分布,其次进行参数估计及实际问题的分析解释.     

混合系数线性模型的几乎无偏岭估计

本文研究了连续测量数据情况下的混合系数线性模型的参数估计问题.利用岭估计方法得到了该模型的几乎无偏岭估计,并证明了在均方误差意义下,几乎无偏岭估计优于岭估计.最后讨论了有偏参数的选取问题.     

高精度参数估计问题

对高精度参数的估计问题进行了研究.在观测数据无误差的情况下,将微分方程组转化为线性方程组,利用矩阵的奇异值分解给出了参数的最优解.在有观测数据误差的情况下,采用高斯-牛顿迭代法进行求解,给出了改进的高斯-牛顿法和阻尼最小二乘算法;通过灰色估计法给出了模型的初始解,通过微分方程数值解法计算模型迭代过程中误差和偏导数.最后,通过对迭代过程中的状态变量引入误差项,导出了基于总体最小二乘的高斯-牛顿迭代法,从系统的角度解决了观测时间有误差下的参数估计问题.     

混合模拟退火-进化策略在非线性参数估计中的应用

提出了一种混合模拟退火-进化策略算法应用在非线性参数估计中,方法克服了传统优化方法估计参数精度不高且容易陷入局部极小值等缺点,并且将模拟退火算法和进化策略算法相结合,充分发挥各自算法优点.最后通过给出非线性参数估计算例,结果表明,算法具有参数估计精度较高,收敛速度快,自适应性强,在实际工程中有较大的应用价值.     

NONCONFORMING FINITE ELEMENT PENALTY METHOD FOR STOKES EQUATION

a special penalty method is presented to improve the accuracy of the standard penaltymethod (or solving Stokes equation with nonconforming finite element, It is shown that thismethod with a larger penalty parameter can achieve the same accuracy as the staodaxd methodwith a smaller penalty parameter. The convergence rate of the standard method is just hall order of this penalty method when using the same penalty parameter, while the extrapolationmethod proposed by Faik et al can not yield so high accuracy of convergence. At last, we alsoget the super-convergence estimates for total flux.     

基于贝叶斯推理的突发水污染事件水质预测模型参数估计

参数的精确性是准确构建突发水污染事件水质预测模型的前提与保障。论文首先根据有限差分法和贝叶斯推理构建水质预测模型参数估计模型,然后通过Metropolis-Hasting抽样方法得到较为合理的参数,最后以发生在某段明渠的突发水污染事件为例,讨论了恒定流与非恒定流两种情景下不同观测噪声对参数估计结果的影响,并与采用有限差分-单纯形法得到的结果进行对比。结果表明:有限差分-贝叶斯方法具有较强的适用性和良好的抗噪声能力,采用该方法能获得较高精度的参数值。该研究为突发污染事件预测模型的构建提供一条新途径。     

Fitting the three-parameter Weibull distribution with Cross Entropy

The Weibull distribution is widely used in applications such as reliability and lifetime studies. Although this distribution has three parameters, for simplicity, literature pertaining to Weibull parameter estimation relaxes one of its parameters in order to estimate the other two. When the three-parameter Weibull distribution is of interest, the estimation procedure is complicated. For example, the likelihood function for a three-parameter Weibull distribution is hard to maximize. In this paper, a Cross Entropy (CE) method is developed in the context of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Performing a simulation study, a comparative analysis between the newly developed method and two existing methods is conducted. The results show the proposed method has better performance in terms of accuracy, precision and run time for different parameter settings and sample sizes.     

基于黄金分割法的离散回归方程的变点估计及其应用

本文利用变点统计学和黄金分割法讨论有多个变点的离散回归方程的交点估计和参数估计，文中提出基于黄金分割法搜索最佳变点估计和同时得到参数估计的最小二乘算法，还讨论该算法在控制领域的应用，数值模拟结果显示本文算法能给出良好的变点及参数的估计值。     

A new method for parameter sensitivity estimation in structural reliability analysis

For the parameter sensitivity estimation with implicit limit state functions in the time-invariant reliability analysis, the common Monte Carlo simulation based approach involves multiple trials for each parameter being varied, which will increase associated computational cost and the cost may become inevitably high especially when many random variables are involved. Another effective approach for this problem is featured as constructing the equivalent limit state function (usually called response surface) and performing the estimation in FORM/SORM. However, as the equivalent limit state function is polynomial in the traditional response surface method, it is not a good approximation especially for some highly non-linear limit state functions. To solve the above two problems, a new method, support vector regression based response surface method, is therefore presented in this paper. The support vector regression algorithm is employed to construct the equivalent limit state function and FORM/SORM is used in the parameter sensitivity estimation, and then two illustrative examples are given. It is shown that the computational cost of the sensitivity estimation can be greatly reduced and the accuracy can be retained, and results of the sensitivity estimation obtained by the proposed method are in satisfactory agreement with those computed by the conventional Monte Carlo methods.     

An Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers for MCP-penalized Regression with High-dimensional Data

The minimax concave penalty (MCP) has been demonstrated theoretically and practically to be effective in nonconvex penalization for variable selection and parameter estimation. In this paper, we develop an efficient alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) with continuation algorithm for solving the MCP-penalized least squares problem in high dimensions. Under some mild conditions, we study the convergence properties and the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions of the proposed method. A high-dimensional BIC is developed to select the optimal tuning parameters. Simulations and a real data example are presented to illustrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.     

Robust Estimation of the Generalized Pareto Distribution

One approach used for analyzing extremes is to fit the excesses over a high threshold by a generalized Pareto distribution. For the estimation of the shape and scale parameters in the generalized Pareto distribution, under some restrictions on the value of the scale parameter, maximum likelihood, method of moments and probability weighted moments' estimators are available. However, these are not robust estimators. In this paper we implement a robust estimation procedure known as the method of medians (He and Fung, 1999) to estimate the parameters in the generalized Pareto distribution. The asymptotic distribution of our estimator is normal for any value of the shape parameter except –1.     

Finite difference spectral approximation for the time‐space fractional telegraph equation and its parameter estimation

The object of this paper is to present the numerical solution of the time‐space fractional telegraph equation. The proposed method is based on the finite difference scheme in temporal direction and Fourier spectral method in spatial direction. The fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique is applied to practical computation. The stability and convergence analysis are strictly proven, which shows that this method is stable and convergent with (2?α) order accuracy in time and spectral accuracy in space. Moreover, the Levenberg‐Marquardt (L‐M) iterative method is employed for the parameter estimation. Finally, some numerical examples are given to confirm the theoretical analysis.