基于前景云的不确定语言多准则国际股指投资群决策

针对投资决策过程中语言评价值具有随机性及模糊性,以及投资者的决策容易受到其情绪的影响且不同投资者受到的影响程度不同,本文提出基于前景云的不确定语言多准则投资群决策方法,并将其运用在国际股指投资中。其中,前景理论模型用来刻画投资者情绪对决策的影响,而云模型用来刻画语言评价值模糊性和随机性之间的关联。更具体来说,论文首先解决传统文献云生成方法中云期望值超过论域或者无法区分语言评价标度等级等问题,然后构建了前景云模型并将该模型应用于多个专家共同进行的国际股指投资群决策。实证结果显示,该模型得出的决策结果比传统决策方法下的结果更直观、可靠,表现为决策依据不仅考虑方案的期望值大小及变动风险,而且还考虑了投资者情绪对决策的影响。由此可得出,本文所提出的模型更符合现实情景,也更能有效实现对投资群决策。     

电力系统黑启动决策方法比较研究

黑启动作为电力体系安全防御和事故后快速恢复的措施之一,其路径的合理选择对电力系统快速恢复供电具有重要意义。近年来,学者们从不同角度提出了多种黑启动方案决策方法,然而并没有实现各决策方法间的优劣比较。本文引入平均绝对偏差公式,设计了一种黑启动决策方法比较策略,实现了黑启动决策方法的量化比较。在所提比较策略基础上,对常用的黑启动权重确定方法和排序方法进行了实验分析,广东电网上的实验结果表明基于标准差权重和TOPSIS排序的黑启动决策方法具有最高的准确性。本文的价值在于:(1)提出了一种新的比较策略,使黑启动决策方法的量化比较成为可能;(2)通过大量实验确定了一种优化的黑启动决策方法,为后续黑启动决策研究提供了比较基准。     

Comparison of some AI and statistical classification methods for a marketing case

Recent progress in data processing technology has made the accumulation and systematic organization of large volumes of data a routine activity. As a result of these developments, there is an increasing need for data-based or data-driven methods of model development. This paper describes data-driven classification methods and shows that the automatic development and refinement of decision support models is now possible when the machine is given a large (or sometimes even a small) amount of observations that express instances of a certain task domain. The classifier obtained may be used to build a decision support system, to refine or update an existing system and to understand or improve a decision-making process. The described AI classification methods are compared with statistical classification methods for a marketing application. They can act as a basis for data-driven decision support systems that have two basic components: an automated knowledge module and an advice module or, in different terms, an automated knowledge acquisition/retrieval module and a knowledge processing module. When these modules are integrated or linked, a decision support system can be created which enables an organization to make better-quality decisions, with reduced variance, probably using fewer people.     

Ranking efficient DMUs using the Tchebycheff norm

One problem that has been discussed frequently in data envelopment analysis (DEA) literature has been lack of discrimination in DEA applications, in particular when there are insufficient DMUs or the number of inputs and outputs is too high relative to the number of units. This is an additional reason for the growing interest in complete ranking techniques. In this paper a method for ranking extreme efficient decision making units (DMUs) is proposed. The method uses L_∞(or Tchebycheff) Norm, and it seems to have some superiority over other existing methods, because this method is able to remove the existing difficulties in some methods, such as Andersen and Petersen [2] (AP) that it is sometimes infeasible. The suggested model is always feasible.     

考虑决策者风险偏好的区间直觉模糊多属性群决策方法

提出了一种考虑决策者风险偏好且属性权重信息不完全的区间直觉模糊数多属性群决策方法。同时考虑相似度和接近度,确定每一属性的决策者权重。为了考虑决策者风险偏好对决策结果的影响和避免区间直觉模糊矩阵的渐进性,引入了决策者风险偏好系数,将集结后的综合决策矩阵转换成区间数矩阵。然后,为了客观地求出属性权重信息不完全环境下属性的权重,构建了基于区间直觉模糊交叉熵的属性权重目标规划模型,该模型不仅考虑了评价值的偏差,也强调了评价值自身的可信度。最后,通过研发项目选择问题的实例分析说明了所提方法的合理性和优越性。     

Multivariate Gaussian criteria in SMAA

We consider stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems with multiple decision makers. In such problems, the uncertainty or inaccuracy of the criteria measurements and the partial or missing preference information can be represented through probability distributions. In many real-life problems the uncertainties of criteria measurements may be dependent. However, it is often difficult to quantify these dependencies. Also, most of the existing methods are unable to handle such dependency information.In this paper, we develop a method for handling dependent uncertainties in stochastic multicriteria group decision-making problems. We measure the criteria, their uncertainties and dependencies using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. Based on the simulation results, we determine for the criteria measurements a joint probability distribution that quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We then use the SMAA-2 stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis method for comparing the alternatives based on the criteria distributions. We demonstrate the use of the method in the context of a strategic decision support model for a retailer operating in the liberated European electricity market.     

Graph-based multi-agent decision making

In lots of practical multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems, there exist various and changeable relations among the criteria which cannot be handled well by means of the existing methods. Considering that graphic or netlike structures can be used to describe the relationships among several individuals, we first introduce the graphic structure into MCDM and formalize the relations among criteria. Then, we develop a new tool, called graph-based multi-agent decision making (GMADM) model, to deal with a kind of MCDM problems with the interrelated criteria. In the model, the graphic structure is paid sufficient attention to in two main aspects: (1) how the graphic structure has influence on the benefits of agents (or the criteria values); and (2) the relation between the graphic structure and the importance weights of agents (criteria). In this case, we can select the best plan(s) (or alternative(s)) according to the overall benefits (the overall criteria values) resulting from the model. Moreover, a fuzzy graph-based multi-agent decision making (FGMADM) method is developed to solve a common kind of situations where the graphic structure of agents is uncertain (confidential or false). Three examples are used to illustrate the feasibility of these two developed methods.     

Applications of fuzzy linear programming with generalized LR flat fuzzy parameters

In this paper, the limitations of existing methods to solve the problems of fuzzy assignment, fuzzy travelling salesman and fuzzy generalized assignment are pointed out. All these problems can be formulated in linear programming problems wherein the decision variables are represented by real numbers and other parameters are represented by fuzzy numbers. To overcome the limitations of existing methods, a new method is proposed. The advantage of proposed method over existing methods is demonstrated by solving the problems mentioned above which can or cannot be solved by using the existing methods.     

Hybrid chaos optimization algorithm with artificial emotion

Much research on Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been focusing on exploring various potential applications of intelligent systems. In most cases, the researches attempt to model human intelligence by mimicking the brain structure and function, but they ignore an important aspect in human learning and decision making: the artificial emotion. In this paper, we present a new unconstrained global optimization method, hybrid chaos optimization algorithm with artificial emotion (HCOAAE), which avoids trapping to local minima, and improves convergence in large space and high-dimension optimization problems. The main purpose of artificial emotion is to mimic decision making behavior process of humans, to choose most suitable parameters of HCOAAE and decide whether to change current search strategy or not in the next iteration. Numerical simulations of 13 benchmark functions with different dimensions are used to test the performance of HCOAAE. Experimental results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms the existing methods in terms of convergence speed, computational effectiveness, and numerical stability.     

An approach to generate comprehensive piecewise linear interpolation of pareto outcomes to aid decision making

Multiple criteria decision making is a well established field encompassing aspects of search for solutions and selection of solutions in presence of more than one conflicting objectives. In this paper, we discuss an approach aimed towards the latter. The decision maker is presented with a limited number of Pareto optimal outcomes and is required to identify regions of interest for further investigation. The inherent sparsity of the given Pareto optimal outcomes in high dimensional space makes it an arduous task for the decision maker. To address this problem, an existing line of thought in literature is to generate a set of approximated Pareto optimal outcomes using piecewise linear interpolation. We present an approach within this paradigm, but one that delivers a comprehensive linearly interpolated set as opposed to its subset delivered by existing methods. We illustrate the advantage in doing so in comparison to stricter non-dominance conditions imposed in existing PAreto INTerpolation method. The interpolated set of outcomes delivered by the proposed approach are non-dominated with respect to the given Pareto optimal outcomes, and additionally the interpolated outcomes along uniformly distributed reference directions are presented to the decision maker. The errors in the given interpolations are also estimated in order to further aid decision making by establishing confidence in achieving true Pareto outcomes in their vicinity. The proposed approach for interpolation is computationally less demanding (for higher number of objectives) and also further amenable to parallelization. We illustrate the performance of the approach using six well established tri-objective test problems and two real-life examples. The problems span different types of fronts, such as convex, concave, mixed, degenerate, highlighting the wide applicability of the approach.     

基于分段策略评分的冲突主体偏好排序方法及其应用

冲突中各利益主体的偏好信息对冲突局势的演变和纠纷调解具有重要影响。现有的冲突偏好排序方法主要基于决策者对冲突局势或状态、策略权重和声明信息的主观判断和理解,缺乏科学的数据来源支撑。为准确获取冲突主体的偏好信息,本文提出了一种基于调查法的分段策略冲突偏好排序方法。首先,根据决策者类别将冲突策略集合进行分段,并通过问卷、调研等方法获取每个冲突主体对所有分段策略的重要度评分信息。在此基础上,计算决策者对各个冲突状态的综合偏好评分,进而得到状态偏好的排序结果。最后以医患纠纷为例,对比分析了传统策略权重法和分段策略评分法的偏好排序和稳定性分析结果,进一步验证了所提方法的有效性。     

Group decision making with simplified neutrosophic ordered weighted distance operator

Simplified neutrosophic set is a convenient tool proposed for dealing with complex problems; it is effective in providing more data for decision‐making process. In this study, we develop a simplified neutrosophic ordered weighted distance operator which combines the neutrosophic distance measures and the ordered weighted average distance in the same formulation. It is a new handy aggregation operator that considers the situations where the input data are represented in simplified neutrosophic numbers, and it also contains diverse distance aggregation operators. Parameterized families of simplified neutrosophic ordered weighted distance operator are handled. Moreover, we establish a new neutrosophic group decision‐making method based on the simplified neutrosophic ordered weighted distance operator, which has 2 extended approaches for determining the weights of decision makers and decision attributes in decision‐making process, respectively. Finally, an illustrative example demonstrates the application of the proposed method. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are shown by the comparative analysis with existing relative methods.     

An improved method on group decision making based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy prioritized operators

Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy prioritized operators are widely used in group decision making under uncertain environment due to its flexibility to model uncertain information. However, there is a shortcoming in the existing aggregation operators (interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy prioritized weighted average (IVIFPWA)) to deal with group decision making in some extreme situations. For example, when an expert gives an absolute negative evaluation, the operators could lead to irrational results, so that they are not effectively enough to handle group decision making. In this paper, several examples are illustrated to show the unreasonable results in some of these situations. Actually, these unreasonable cases are common for operators in dealing with product averaging, not only emerging in IVIFPWA operators. To overcome the shortcoming of these kinds of operators, an improvement of making slight adjustment on initial evaluations is provided. Numerical examples are used to show the efficiency of the improvement.     

Baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection

A key issue in applying multi-attribute project portfolio models is specifying the baseline value – a parameter which defines how valuable not implementing a project is relative to the range of possible project values. In this paper we present novel baseline value specification techniques which admit incomplete preference statements and, unlike existing techniques, make it possible to model problems where the decision maker would prefer to implement a project with the least preferred performance level in each attribute. Furthermore, we develop computational methods for identifying the optimal portfolios and the value-to-cost -based project rankings for all baseline values. We also show how these results can be used to (i) analyze how sensitive project and portfolio decision recommendations are to variations in the baseline value and (ii) provide project decision recommendations in a situation where only incomplete information about the baseline value is available.     

Effects of resource availability on consensus decision making in primates

There has recently been increasing interest in group decision making, and in particular the mechanisms through which a group of individuals can arrive at a consensus decision. In this paper we investigate the effects of resource availability upon consensus decision making in a primate group. We extend an existing agent-based model of primate decision making to incorporate a model of diminishing foraging returns, and show that the difficulty of obtaining energy from the environment has an impact on successful strategies for consensus decision making in such groups. Moreover, the introduction of diminishing returns also results in better agreement between the predictions of the model and field studies of a naturally occurring primate group.     

Portfolio selection in the Spanish stock market by interactive multiobjective programming

This study examines new versions of two interactive methods to address multiobjective problems, the aim of which is to enable the decision maker to reach a solution within the range of those considered efficient in a portfolio selection model, in which several objectives are pursued concerning risk and return and given that these are clearly conflicting objectives, the profile of the model proposed is multicriteria. Normally the range of efficient portfolios is fairly extensive thus making the selection of a single one an onerous task. In order to facilitate this process, interactive methods are used aimed at guiding the decision maker towards the optimal solution based on his preferences. Several adaptations were carried out on the original methods in order to facilitate the interactive process, improving the quality of the obtained portfolios, and these were applied to data obtained from the Madrid Stock Market, interaction taking place with two decision makers, one of whom was more aggressive than the other in their selections made.     

Enhancing data consistency in decision matrix: Adapting Hadamard model to mitigate judgment contradiction

Cardinal and ordinal inconsistencies are important and popular research topics in the study of decision making with pair-wise comparison matrices (PCMs). Few of the currently-employed tactics are capable of simultaneously dealing with both cardinal and ordinal inconsistency issues in one model, and most are heavily dependent on the method chosen for weight (priorities) derivation or the obtained closest matrix by optimization method that may change many of the original values. In this paper, we propose a Hadamard product induced bias matrix model, which only requires the use of the data in the original matrix to identify and adjust the cardinally inconsistent element(s) in a PCM. Through graph theory and numerical examples, we show that the adapted Hadamard model is effective in identifying and eliminating the ordinal inconsistencies. Also, for the most inconsistent element identified in the matrix, we develop innovative methods to improve the consistency of a PCM. The proposed model is only dependent on the original matrix, is independent of the methods chosen to derive the priority vectors, and preserves most of the original information in matrix A since only the most inconsistent element(s) need(s) to be modified. Our method is much easier to implement than any of the existing models, and the values it recommends for replacement outperform those derived from the literature. It significantly enhances matrix consistency and improves the reliability of PCM decision making.     

考虑占位决策的围堵嫌犯模型

研究了2011年中国大学生数学建模竞赛B题的突发事件中交巡警对在逃嫌犯的围堵问题。不同于对该问题的以往的研究,本文考虑了交巡警在包围圈中可以占据某些路口,使得嫌犯不能通过这些被交巡警占据的路口,从而为形成包围圈的交巡警赢得更多时间。利用两篇相关文献的关于点截集判断的结论和考虑占位决策的建模方法,以不同的目标函数建立了考虑占位决策的围堵嫌犯问题的三个混合0-1非线性整数规划模型。通过选取部分线性约束和目标函数一起组合成混合0-1线性整数规划模型,设计了基于混合0-1线性整数规划方法的算法,并给出了算例。     

Approaches to multistage one-shot decision making

In this research, multistage one-shot decision making under uncertainty is studied. In such a decision problem, a decision maker has one and only one chance to make a decision at each stage with possibilistic information. Based on the one-shot decision theory, approaches to multistage one-shot decision making are proposed. In the proposed approach, a decision maker chooses one state amongst all the states according to his/her attitude about satisfaction and possibility at each stage. The payoff at each stage is associated with the focus points at the succeeding stages. Based on the selected states (focus points), the sequence of optimal decisions is determined by dynamic programming. The proposed method is a fundamental alternative for multistage decision making under uncertainty because it is scenario-based instead of lottery-based as in the other existing methods. The one-shot optimal stopping problem is analyzed where a decision maker has only one chance to determine stopping or continuing at each stage. The theoretical results have been obtained.     

Estimation of missing judgments in AHP pairwise matrices using a neural network-based model

Selecting relevant features to make a decision and expressing the relationships between these features is not a simple task. The decision maker must precisely define the alternatives and criteria which are more important for the decision making process. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) uses hierarchical structures to facilitate this process. The comparison is realized using pairwise matrices, which are filled in according to the decision maker judgments. Subsequently, matrix consistency is tested and priorities are obtained by calculating the matrix principal eigenvector. Given an incomplete pairwise matrix, two procedures must be performed: first, it must be completed with suitable values for the missing entries and, second, the matrix must be improved until a satisfactory level of consistency is reached. Several methods are used to fill in missing entries for incomplete pairwise matrices with correct comparison values. Additionally, once pairwise matrices are complete and if comparison judgments between pairs are not consistent, some methods must be used to improve the matrix consistency and, therefore, to obtain coherent results. In this paper a model based on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network is presented. Given an AHP pairwise matrix, this model is capable of completing missing values and improving the matrix consistency at the same time.