Strong guidance on mitigating the effects of uncertainties in the brass casting blending problem: a hybrid optimization approach

The scrap charge optimization problem in the brass casting process is a critical management concern that aims to reduce the charge while preventing specification violations. Uncertainties in scrap material compositions often cause violations in product standards. In this study, we have discussed the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and modelled them by using probability and possibility distributions, respectively. Mathematical models including probabilistic and possibilistic parameters are generally solved by transforming one type of parameter into the other. However, the transformation processes have some handicaps such as knowledge losses or virtual information production. In this paper, we have proposed a new solution approach that needs no transformation process and so eliminates these handicaps. The proposed approach combines both chance-constrained stochastic programming and possibilistic programming. The solution of the numerical example has shown that the blending problem including probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainties can be successfully handled and solved by the proposed approach.     

Integrated inventory management and supplier base reduction in a supply chain with multiple uncertainties

This paper considers a manufacturing supply chain with multiple suppliers in the presence of multiple uncertainties such as uncertain material supplies, stochastic production times, and random customer demands. The system is subject to supply and production capacity constraints. We formulate the integrated inventory management policy for raw material procurement and production control using the stochastic dynamic programming approach. We then investigate the supplier base reduction strategies and the supplier differentiation issue under the integrated inventory management policy. The qualitative relationships between the supplier base size, the supplier capabilities and the total expected cost are established. Insights into differentiating the procurement decisions to different suppliers are provided. The model further enables us to quantitatively achieve the trade-off between the supplier base reduction and the supplier capability improvement, and quantify the supplier differentiation in terms of procurement decisions. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.     

Scheduling at coal handling facilities using Simulated Annealing

The main thrust of this study is the operational scheduling of the continuous coal handling and blending processes when considering multiple, and sometimes conflicting, objectives. A widely applicable generic goal programming model is proposed. Furthermore, assumptions regarding the certainty of demand during different periods are challenged, endeavoring to provide more robust schedules in a largely stochastic environment. As the study aims to provide scheduling solutions to any coal handling facility, the Simulated Annealing metaheuristic is proposed to ensure that acceptably good solutions for large instances of the generic model can be found in reasonable computational time. The generic approach and its suggested application will be valuable not only in the coal handling environment, but also in the continuous product manufacturing/blending or continuous material handling environment.     

An Approach for Strategic Supply Chain Planning under Uncertainty based on Stochastic 0-1 Programming

We present a two-stage stochastic 0-1 modeling and a related algorithmic approach for Supply Chain Management under uncertainty, whose goal consists of determining the production topology, plant sizing, product selection, product allocation among plants and vendor selection for raw materials. The objective is the maximization of the expected benefit given by the product net profit over the time horizon minus the investment depreciation and operations costs. The main uncertain parameters are the product net price and demand, the raw material supply cost and the production cost. The first stage is included by the strategic decisions. The second stage is included by the tactical decisions. A tight 0-1 model for the deterministic version is presented. A splitting variable mathematical representation via scenario is presented for the stochastic version of the model. A two-stage version of a Branch and Fix Coordination (BFC) algorithmic approach is proposed for stochastic 0-1 program solving, and some computational experience is reported for cases with dozens of thousands of constraints and continuous variables and hundreds of 0-1 variables.     

Process mean determination under constant raw material supply

Setting the mean (target value) for a production process is an important decision for a producer when material cost is a significant portion of production cost. Because the process mean determines the process conforming rate, it affects other production decisions, including, in particular, production setup and raw material procurement policies. In this paper, we consider the situation in which the product of interest is assumed to have a lower specification limit, and the items that do not conform to the specification limit are scrapped with no salvage value. The production cost of an item is a linear function of the amount of the raw material used in producing the item, and the supply rate of the raw material is finite and constant. Furthermore, it is assumed that quantity discounts are available in the raw material cost and that the discounts are determined by the supply rate. Two types of discounts are considered in this paper: incremental quantity discounts and all-unit quantity discounts. A two-echelon model is formulated for a single-product production process to incorporate the issues associated with production setup and raw material procurement into the classical process mean problem. Efficient solution algorithms are developed for finding the optimal solutions of the model.     

A model for strategic planning under uncertainty

Summary In this paper the multi-period strategic planning problem for a consumer sumer product manufacturing chain is considered. Our discussion is focused on investment decisions which, are economically optimal over the whole planning horizonT, while meeting customer demands and conforming to technological requirements. In strategic planning, time and uncertainty play important roles. The uncertainties in the model are due to different levels of forecast demands, cost estimates and equipment behaviour. The main aim of this paper is to develop and analyse a multiperiod stochastic model representing the entire manufacturing chain, from the acquisitions of raw material to the delivering of final products. The resulting optimization problem is computationally intractable because of the enormous, and sometimes unrealistic, number of scenarios that must be considered in order to identify the optimal planning strategy. We propose two different solution approaches; firstly, we apply a scenario risk analysis giving the related results of experiments on a particular real data set. We then describe and investigate an Integer Stochastic Programming formulation of the problem and propose, as a solution technique, a variation of Benders decomposition method, namely theL-shaped method.     

Optimal Guaranteed Cost Control of Stochastic Discrete-Time Systems with States and Input Dependent Noise Under Markovian Switching

A problem of robust guaranteed cost control of stochastic discrete-time systems with parametric uncertainties under Markovian switching is considered. The control is simultaneously applied to both the random and the deterministic components of the system. The noise (the random) term depends on both the states and the control input. The jump Markovian switching is modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain and the noise or stochastic environmental disturbance is modeled by a sequence of identically independently normally distributed random variables. Using linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) approach, the robust quadratic stochastic stability is obtained. The proposed control law for this quadratic stochastic stabilization result depended on the mode of the system. This control law is developed such that the closed-loop system with a cost function has an upper bound under all admissible parameter uncertainties. The upper bound for the cost function is obtained as a minimization problem. Two numerical examples are given to demonstrate the potential of the proposed techniques and obtained results.     

Stochastic multi-site capacity planning of TFT-LCD manufacturing using expected shadow-price based decomposition

This paper presents a stochastic optimization model and efficient decomposition algorithm for multi-site capacity planning under the uncertainty of the TFT-LCD industry. The objective of the stochastic capacity planning is to determine a robust capacity allocation and expansion policy hedged against demand uncertainties because the demand forecasts faced by TFT-LCD manufacturers are usually inaccurate and vary rapidly over time. A two-stage scenario-based stochastic mixed integer programming model that extends the deterministic multi-site capacity planning model proposed by Chen et al. (2010) [1] is developed to discuss the multi-site capacity planning problem in the face of uncertain demands. In addition a three-step methodology is proposed to generate discrete demand scenarios within the stochastic optimization model by approximating the stochastic continuous demand process fitted from the historical data. An expected shadow-price based decomposition, a novel algorithm for the stage decomposition approach, is developed to obtain a near-optimal solution efficiently through iterative procedures and parallel computing. Preliminary computational study shows that the proposed decomposition algorithm successfully addresses the large-scale stochastic capacity planning model in terms of solution quality and computation time. The proposed algorithm also outperforms the plain use of the CPLEX MIP solver as the problem size becomes larger and the number of demand scenarios increases.     

Two storage inventory model in a mixed environment

Multi-item inventory models with two storage facility and bulk release pattern are developed with linearly time dependent demand in a finite time horizon under crisp, stochastic and fuzzy-stochastic environments. Here different inventory parameters—holding costs, ordering costs, purchase costs, etc.—are assumed as probabilistic or fuzzy in nature. In particular cases stochastic and crisp models are derived. Models are formulated as profit maximization principle and three different approaches are proposed for solution. In the first approach, fuzzy extension principle is used to find membership function of the objective function and then it’s Graded Mean Integration Value (GMIV) for different optimistic levels are taken as equivalent stochastic objectives. Then the stochastic model is transformed to a constraint multi-objective programming problem using Stochastic Non-linear Programming (SNLP) technique. The multi-objective problems are transferred to single objective problems using Interactive Fuzzy Satisfising (IFS) technique. Finally, a Region Reducing Genetic Algorithm (RRGA) based on entropy has been developed and implemented to solve the single objective problems. In the second approach, the above GMIV (which is stochastic in nature) is optimized with some degree of probability and using SNLP technique model is transferred to an equivalent single objective crisp problem and solved using RRGA. In the third approach, objective function is optimized with some degree of possibility/necessity and following this approach model is transformed to an equivalent constrained stochastic programming problem. Then it is transformed to an equivalent single objective crisp problem using SNLP technique and solved via RRGA. The models are illustrated with some numerical examples and some sensitivity analyses have been presented.     

Integrated supply chain planning under uncertainty using an improved stochastic approach

This paper proposes an integrated model and a modified solution method for solving supply chain network design problems under uncertainty. The stochastic supply chain network design model is provided as a two-stage stochastic program where the two stages in the decision-making process correspond to the strategic and tactical decisions. The uncertainties are mostly found in the tactical stage because most tactical parameters are not fully known when the strategic decisions have to be made. The main uncertain parameters are the operational costs, the customer demand and capacity of the facilities. In the improved solution method, the sample average approximation technique is integrated with the accelerated Benders’ decomposition approach to improvement of the mixed integer linear programming solution phase. The surrogate constraints method will be utilized to acceleration of the decomposition algorithm. A computational study on randomly generated data sets is presented to highlight the efficiency of the proposed solution method. The computational results show that the modified sample average approximation method effectively expedites the computational procedure in comparison with the original approach.     

Guaranteed Cost Control for Uncertain Neutral Stochastic Systems via Dynamic Output Feedback Controllers

This paper deals with the problem of guaranteed cost control for uncertain neutral stochastic systems. The parameter uncertainties are assumed to be time-varying but norm-bounded. Dynamic output feedback controllers are designed such that, for all admissible uncertainties, the resulting closed-loop system is mean-square asymptotically stable and an upper bound on the closed-loop value of the cost function is guaranteed. By employing a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, a sufficient condition for the solvability of the underlying problem is obtained. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed techniques.     

Stochastic model order reduction in randomly parametered linear dynamical systems

This study focuses on the development of reduced order models for stochastic analysis of complex large ordered linear dynamical systems with parametric uncertainties, with an aim to reduce the computational costs without compromising on the accuracy of the solution. Here, a twin approach to model order reduction is adopted. A reduction in the state space dimension is first achieved through system equivalent reduction expansion process which involves linear transformations that couple the effects of state space truncation in conjunction with normal mode approximations. These developments are subsequently extended to the stochastic case by projecting the uncertain parameters into the Hilbert subspace and obtaining a solution of the random eigenvalue problem using polynomial chaos expansion. Reduction in the stochastic dimension is achieved by retaining only the dominant stochastic modes in the basis space. The proposed developments enable building surrogate models for complex large ordered stochastically parametered dynamical systems which lead to accurate predictions at significantly reduced computational costs.     

Model for cost estimation in a finite-capacity stochastic environment based on shop floor optimization combined with simulation

In recent years several researchers suggested cost estimation models that consider limited capacity. These researchers ignored the stochastic nature of the shop floor. This paper presents a cost estimation model that takes into account the stochastic environment. It is based on marginal analysis – the difference between the total cost without the new order and the total cost with the new order. The proposed model is based on the integration of simulation and optimization. Data generated by the simulation is inserted into the optimization procedure that finds good feasible solutions quickly. A significant advantage of the proposed stochastic cost estimation over an existing deterministic approach is shown. A computational study is performed to test different factors affecting the proposed model.     

Stochastic optimization of an urban rail timetable under time‐dependent and uncertain demand

Urban rail planning is extremely complex, mainly because it is a decision problem under different uncertainties. In practice, travel demand is generally uncertain, and therefore, the timetabling decisions must be based on accurate estimation. This research addresses the optimization of train timetable at public transit terminals of an urban rail in a stochastic setting. To cope with stochastic fluctuation of arrival rates, a two‐stage stochastic programming model is developed. The objective is to construct a daily train schedule that minimizes the expected waiting time of passengers. Due to the high computational cost of evaluating the expected value objective, the sample average approximation method is applied. The method provided statistical estimations of the optimality gap as well as lower and upper bounds and the associated confidence intervals. Numerical experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the solution method.     

Integer Programming to Minimize Labour Costs

The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a real-world application of pure integer programming to find the optimum solution to a labour cost problem. The length of a daily working shift is defined as an integer variable and several shift strategies are analysed to determine the optimum length and shift combinations that satisfy a predicted demand at minimum cost. The state-space model has been used to predict the stochastic behaviour of monthly demands for beer and soft drink. Savings of about 7% of the annual sales have been obtained as a result of implementing the integer programming approach. A numerical example shows that the solution obtained by rounding off the continuous optimal solution does not match with the integer optimal solution. It was also noted that if a rounded-off solution is feasible, then it provides an initial integer solution for the branch-and-bound algorithm that may reduce the computational time.     

A decomposition approach to the two-stage stochastic unit commitment problem

The unit commitment problem has been a very important problem in the power system operations, because it is aimed at reducing the power production cost by optimally scheduling the commitments of generation units. Meanwhile, it is a challenging problem because it involves a large amount of integer variables. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources in power systems, power system operations and control have been more affected by uncertainties than before. This paper discusses a stochastic unit commitment model which takes into account various uncertainties affecting thermal energy demand and two types of power generators, i.e., quick-start and non-quick-start generators. This problem is a stochastic mixed integer program with discrete decision variables in both first and second stages. In order to solve this difficult problem, a method based on Benders decomposition is applied. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm can solve the stochastic unit commitment problem efficiently, especially those with large numbers of scenarios.     

Symbolic and numeric scheme for solution of linear integro-differential equations with random parameter uncertainties and Gaussian stochastic process input

The paper describes a theoretical apparatus and an algorithmic part of application of the Green matrix-valued functions for time-domain analysis of systems of linear stochastic integro-differential equations. It is suggested that these systems are subjected to Gaussian nonstationary stochastic noises in the presence of model parameter uncertainties that are described in the framework of the probability theory. If the uncertain model parameter is fixed to a given value, then a time-history of the system will be fully represented by a second-order Gaussian vector stochastic process whose properties are completely defined by its conditional vector-valued mean function and matrix-valued covariance function. The scheme that is proposed is constituted of a combination of two subschemes. The first one explicitly defines closed relations for symbolic and numeric computations of the conditional mean and covariance functions, and the second one calculates unconditional characteristics by the Monte Carlo method. A full scheme realized on the base of Wolfram Mathematica and Intel Fortran software programs, is demonstrated by an example devoted to an estimation of a nonstationary stochastic response of a mechanical system with a thermoviscoelastic component. Results obtained by using the proposed scheme are compared with a reference solution constructed by using a direct Monte Carlo simulation.