基于多目标优化的改航策略研究

随着我国航空运输的快速发展,由恶劣天气等原因导致的航班延误日益增多.传统的改航策略选取总延误损失最小为单一目标,不仅难以满足流量管理不同对象、不同阶段的需求,而且易造成空域利用率偏低.首先将改航策略与地面等待和空中等待相结合,然后综合考虑航空公司的利益,建立多目标优化模型,并采用稳定性和健壮性较强的多目标进化算法求解.最后选取全国典型繁忙日的实际飞行计划,进行了仿真验证.仿真结果表明,策略不仅可为航班动态地选择航路以避开容量限制区域,还可供流量管理部门参考不同目标来确定改航方案.     

危险天气下航路改航策略

目前危险天气对航班正常运行影响很大,改航策略可以减少损失.主要研究块状分布危险天气下的改航.首先对块状分布危险天气区域进行描述,同时对危险天气模型进行简化并对其移动曲线拟合,实时精确地确定受限制的区域范围及其移动方向.在考虑飞机性能和飞行员操作负荷的基础上,确定改航点.然后利用机载雷达设备,以最小改航航段的距离为目标,选择改航路径.使用航段距离、转弯角度、转弯点个数、平均侧向偏离距离为指标进行评估,以南京北京航线为例,研究了块状分布危险天气区域下的改航,并进行仿真,验证此方法的有效性.     

基于最小延误时间和经济成本的空中高速路匝口排序研究

空中高速路是解决空域资源紧缺问题的一种新途径.在建立延误时间成本最小的空中高速路匝口航班排序模型的基础上,分析并得出了航班延误经济成本函数,建立了基于最小延误时间和经济成本的空中高速路匝口航班排序模型,并利用NSGAII算法进行求解.最后利用不同时段的航班数据进行算例仿真,计算航空器进入空中高速路的时刻及其延误成本.结果表明,与先到先服务策略相比,提出的优化模型对于单个航班的延误时间成本、经济成本和累积经济成本分别降低47.2%,51.3%和54.4%,模型与解法可行.     

应用遗传算法求解航班恢复问题

航班调度系统易受天气等因素的影响,导致航班延误甚至取消,给航空公司和旅客带来巨大损失.针对某机场由于天气原因需要临时关闭这一问题,,综合考虑航班延误,飞机置换和旅客的行程信息,以旅客的总体延误时间最短为目标函数,建立了旅客滞留航班恢复模型.根据面向对象的编程思想设计了航班调度算法并耦合遗传算法对模型进行求解.基于较大规模的航班和旅客数据对模型和算法进行了验证,得到了合理的航班恢复方案.     

基于替代航路的进场航班排序优化方法

针对机场终端区航班延误日益严重的现状,为减轻空中交通管制员工作负荷,缓解航班延误,研究了进场航班排序优化问题.通过引入替代进近航路和时间偏差成本的概念,建立了进场航班排序模型;基于调度窗口和冻结范围概念,提出了动态优化方法;结合进场航班排序模型与动态优化方法,以国内某机场的运行数据进行了仿真验证.仿真结果表明:与实际运行相比,基于替代航路的进场航班排序优化方法优化效果显著,减少了约25%的进场航班延误,提高了机场终端区航空器的运行效率.优化方法可以即时获得最优方案,辅助空中交通管制员做出决策.     

基于期权的树形供应链应急模型与仿真

在多级树形供应链网络环境下,基于实物期权策略并引入中断风险成本,建立了树形供应链应对中断风险的保护与应急模型,通过求解模型得到最优策略并进行了数值仿真分析.仿真结果表明该模型能够显著降低树形供应链系统的中断风险成本与系统中断时间,从而提高供应网络的鲁棒性.     

基于航班时空网络模型的网络型机队随机规划方法

为了解决传统基于航班机型分配机队规划法无法准确反映枢纽航线网络下网络效应随机特性问题,将旅客收益网络优化模型合并入航班时空网络数学模型中构建航空公司网络型机队规划方法.在模拟航空公司枢纽网络运营环境(航线网络、航班计划、旅客需求与平均票价水平等)基础上,构建航班时空网络模型并划分行程结构需求情景集,以各机型飞机数为自由变量,将任一需求情景下机型飞机数等于相应自由变量视为非预期约束,构建以机队期望运营利润最大化为目标函数的网络型机队规划随机情景模型,并设计以"完成所需飞机数最少"为第一阶段,以"情景汇聚算法优化机队结构"为第二阶段的两阶段算法求解该模型.算例仿真结果表明,与基于航班机型分配的收益摊销型机队规划法相比较,网络型机队规划法的机队期望运营利润增加了17.1%;与"确定性"需求下的机队规划法相比较,网络型机队规划法的机队期望运营利润增加了1.7%.结果表明,设计的机队规划法能够更好的适应枢纽航线网络运营环境,且结果稳定性更高.     

基于粒子群算法的航班舱位控制研究

首先介绍了收益管理提出的背景思想,在对航班收益管理基本概念作简要阐述的情况下,给出了期望边际座位收入理论.提出了在北京到上海的单航程航段下,航空公司会提供出发时间不同但航程相同的连续两个航班.旅客在没能购买到期望的航班舱位时,会以一定的概率选择购买下一航班的机票或者取消订票,改乘其他交通运输工具.旅客对于某一航班的座位需求主要由固有需求和上一航班需求的转移两部分构成.基于这样的角度建立了两航班机票预售模型,不考虑动态订座,no-show和超售等情况,并利用算法对模型进行了求解和分析.最后得出结论当航班票价等级数量较少时,为高票价等级安排较多数量座位可提高航班收入.而当航班票价等级数量比较多时,为低票价等级多安排一些座位可为航班提高收入.     

多机型航班恢复问题研究

主要研究了基于航班延误时间最短的航班行程规划问题,分别建立了最基本的多机型航班恢复问题模型、考虑旅客行程重新规划的航班恢复问题模型.在约束条件下,先在单机型航班恢复的基础上考虑多机型航班恢复,最后考虑基于飞机载客量的多机型航班恢复.构建时空网络模型,结合改进的分支定界法和启发式算法,确定筛选范围,调整不同的影响范围,达到较优的结果.对于多机型航班恢复问题,得到航班总延误时间为12850分钟.接着分析考虑飞机载客量的多机型航班恢复问题,分析建立的模型得到航班总延误时间为约1886650分钟.建立的模型有较好的鲁棒性,且具有较好的实用性.     

棚户区改造的PPP模式研究:基于演化博弈视角

随着棚户区改造工作的大规模推进,传统棚改模式面临着融资困难等问题.在现有研究基础上,提出棚户区改造的PPP模式,该模式有助于解决传统模式的资金问题,提高棚户区改造的质量,同时在有限理性基础上构建以政府和企业为主体的演化博弈模型,分析在PPP模式下双方的稳定均衡策略.运用MATLAB仿真分析,通过改变参数模拟不同因素变化,探讨不同条件下的稳定演化均衡.根据稳定演化均衡结果提出改进棚户区改造PPP模式的对策建议.     

On air traffic flow management with rerouting. Part II: Stochastic case

We present a framework for modeling multistage mixed 0-1 problems for the air traffic flow management problem with rerouting (ATFMRP) under uncertainty in the airport arrival and departure capacity, the air sector capacity and the flight demand. The model allows for flight cancelation, if necessary. It considers several types of objective functions to minimize, namely, total ground and air holding cost, penalization of the alternative routes to the scheduled one for each flight, delay cost for the flights to arrive to the airports and the air sector nodes, and penalization for advancing the arrival of the flights to the airport over the scheduled period. A scenario tree based scheme is used to represent the Deterministic Equivalent Model (DEM) of the stochastic mixed 0-1 program with full recourse. The nonanticipativity constraints that equate the so named common 0-1 and continuous variables from the same group of scenarios in each period are implicitly satisfied in the compact representation of DEM. Some computational experience is reported for medium-scale instances. The model is so tight that none of the instances of the testbed but two of them requires to execute the branch-and-cut phase of the MIP optimization engine of choice.     

单架飞机受干扰后飞机路径恢复多项式算法研究

飞机路径恢复是航班调整中保证航班能够运行的必要条件之一,而传统目标下的飞机路径优化问题是NP-hard的。本文针对单架飞机受到干扰后,基于最小最大目标的同机型飞机路径最优化问题,给出了一个新的多项式时间算法。首先基于航空公司调整航班的常用原则,提出把最大航班延误时间最小化作为问题的目标。然后根据问题的一些特点和目标形式,设计出解构造算法,得到飞机路径恢复问题的最优解,并分析出算法的复杂度为O(n²)。相对于一般的最小最大二分图匹配算法(复杂度为O(n³log(n))),该算法具有较小的时间复杂度。最后用实例验证了解构造算法的有效性。该研究结果将为航空公司减少航班延误提供理论和方法支持。     

On air traffic flow management with rerouting. Part I: Deterministic case

In this paper a deterministic mixed 0-1 model for the air traffic flow management problem is presented. The model allows for flight cancelation and rerouting, if necessary. It considers several types of objective functions to minimize, namely, the number of flights exceeding a given time delay (that can be zero), separable and non-separable ground holding and air delay costs, penalization of alternative routes to the scheduled one for each flight, time unit delay cost to arrive to the nodes (i.e., air sectors and airports) and penalization for advancing arrival to the nodes over the schedule. The arrival and departure capacity at the airports is obviously considered, as well as the capacity of the different sectors in the airspace, being allowed to vary along the time horizon. So, the model is aimed to help for better decision-making regarding the ground holding and air delays imposed on flights in an air network, on a short term policy for a given time horizon. It is so strong that there is no additional cut appending, nor does it require the execution of the branch-and-bound phase to obtain the optimal solution for the problem in many cases of the testbeds with which we have experimented. In the other cases, the help of the cut identifying and heuristic schemes of the state-of-the art optimization engine of choice is required in order to obtain the solution of the problem, and the branch-and-bound phase is not required either. An extensive computational experience is reported for large-scale instances, some of which have been taken from the literature and some others were coming from industry.     

An integrated decision support tool for airlines schedule recovery during irregular operations

This paper presents a decision support tool for airlines schedule recovery during irregular operations. The tool provides airlines control centers with the capability to develop a proactive schedule recovery plan that integrates all flight resources. A rolling horizon modeling framework, which integrates a schedule simulation model and a resource assignment optimization model, is adopted for this tool. The schedule simulation model projects the list of disrupted flights in the system as function of the severity of anticipated disruptions. The optimization model examines possible resource swapping and flight re-quoting to generate an efficient schedule recovery plan that minimizes flight delays and cancellations. A detailed example that illustrates the application of the tool to recover the schedule of a major US air-carrier during a hypothetical ground delay program scenario is presented. The results of several experiments that illustrates overall model performance in terms of solution quality and computation experience are also given.     

Nodal distance distributions in cluster flight spacecraft network

The high-speed flight of cluster flight spacecraft modules increases the uncertainty of network topology. In order to better design the orbital of the cluster flight spacecraft and improve the performance of cluster flight spacecraft network (CFSN), this paper studies the nodal distance distributions (NDDs). First, based on twin-satellites mode, the mobility model of nodes is established. And then by adopting empirical statistical method and curve fitting method, the solution of the nodal distance density function in the CFSN is obtained. Second, the probability density function is applied to the model distance-dependent path loss, and the probability density of path loss under the model is analyzed. Finally, the distributions of maximum and minimum distance among multiple nodes and the threshold range of nodal connection distance are derived, and the probabilistic connectivity matrix of any time slot in the orbital hyper-period and spatial–temporal evolution graphs under different thresholds is obtained. The analytical results verify the feasibility of the model and the approximate solution of the NDDs in this paper. This method also provides a theoretical reference for the nodal connection in irregular wireless networks.     

Discrete and continuous methods in ballistics

The kinematics of a projectile in flight provides an ideal opportunity for an introduction to (and a comparison between) discrete and continuous methods in applied mathematics. We use a graphical method in the discrete approach, which provides good physical insight and serves as an introduction to finite difference methods. The continuous approach is better in the no‐drag case, but the discrete approach is foundto be more effective when a nonlinear drag effect is included in the model.     

Prediction of swerving motion of a dual-spin projectile with lateral pulse jets in atmospheric flight

Using the linear theory for a dual-spin projectile in atmospheric flight, closed form expressions are obtained for swerving motion under the action of lateral pulse jets. Trajectory results generated by the linear theory equations and a fully nonlinear seven degree-of-freedom dual spin projectile model agree favorably. The analytic solution provides a relatively straightforward and computationally efficient means of trajectory estimation which is useful within smart weapon flight control systems. In order to accurately predict the impact point using the analytic solution, the dual-spin projectile linear model must be updated periodically. Terminal impact point prediction degrades rapidly as the linear model update interval is increased beyond a critical value. Control authority, as defined by the change in impact location due to a pulse jet firing, steadily decreases as a function of projectile down range position.     

不正常航班管理的可拓预警模型

本文从危机管理的角度。采用可拓学的思想和方法，分析导致航班计划运行发生不正常的危机信号的发散性、可扩性、相关性及蕴含性，建立预警模型对相关信息进行收集、监控和分析，为防范危机发生和减少危机损失提供形式化的可拓处理方法。     

Ergodicity properties of rerouting strategies in queueing networks

In this paper we study ergodicity properties for simple Markovian models describing different rerouting policies for queueing systems with two Poisson arrival streams and two exponential servers. On their arrival, customers are either routed to their normal server or are rerouted to the alternate server. We model the extra work for rerouted customers by assuming that each rerouted customer generates several tasks for the alternate server. This model can become non-ergodic even when the total arrival rate is smaller than the total service rate in the system. We compare different strategies for rerouting customers on the basis of necessary and sufficient conditions for ergodicity. For this purpose we make use of Lyapunov functions.Senior Research Associate N.F.W.O. (Belgian National Foundation for Scientific Research). Part of the research leading to this paper was carried out within the Belgian Programme on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction, initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Minister's Office of Science, Technology and Culture. The scientific responsibility rests with the authors.This author was partly supported by a Cátedra Patrimonial of the Mexican Council of Science and Technology.