Optimal replacement model with age-dependent failure type based on a cumulative repair-cost limit policy

This paper presents a replacement model with age-dependent failure type based on a cumulative repair-cost limit policy, whose concept uses the information of all repair costs to decide whether the system is repaired or replaced. As failures occur, the system experiences one of the two types of failures: a type-I failure (minor), rectified by a minimal repair; or a type-II failure (catastrophic) that calls for a replacement. A critical type-I failure means a minor failure at which the accumulated repair cost exceeds the pre-determined limit for the first time. The system is replaced at the nth type-I failure, or at a critical type-I failure, or at first type-II failure, whichever occurs first. The optimal number of minimal repairs before replacement which minimizes the mean cost rate is derived and studied in terms of its existence and uniqueness. Several classical models in maintenance literature are special cases of our model.     

Optimal Replacement Policy for a General Model with Imperfect Repair

A general model is considered which incorporates imperfect repair and repair cost which depends on time and on the number of repairs in the cycle. This model is an extension of models examined previously in the literature. The objective of this paper is to find the optimal replacement policy and compare it with the replacement policies considered earlier for some variants of this model. The form of the optimal replacement policy is found in the general case and the expected average cost per unit time is derived in two special cases. Numerical examples show that the optimal policy is considerably better than the optimal periodic policy. This paper generalizes and unifies previous research in the area.     

Experience with a Stochastic Replacement Model

This paper reports on a study initiated to check the validity of an existing six-monthly block replacement policy for a set of filling valves in a canning line. After dealing with inadequacies in the data and changing to a production-based time measure, the paper shows how a renewal function measure of the expected number of valve replacements was obtained and led to the conclusion that the current block replacement policy could not be justified.The possibility of an age-based replacement policy being of value remained. In order to model such a policy, it was necessary to reverse the usual analysis of renewal-type processes in that an estimate was required of the distribution function of time between renewals, given the renewal function.A finite optimal replacement age was found which depended upon the objective being to minimize a measure of downtime due to replacements, or operating costs attributable to replacements. Calculations were further complicated by part of the plant having a finite remaining life before being upgraded.     

Hybrid block replacement and inspection policies for a multi-component system with heterogeneous component lives

Novel replacement policies that are hybrids of inspection maintenance and block replacement are developed for an n identical component series system in which the component parts used at successive replacements arise from a heterogeneous population. The heterogeneous nature of components implies a mixed distribution for time to failure. In these circumstances, a hybrid policy comprising two phases, an early inspection phase and a later wear-out replacement phase, may be appropriate. The policy has some similarity to burn-in maintenance. The simplest policy described is such a hybrid and comprises a block-type or periodic replacement policy with an embedded block or periodic inspection policy. We use a three state failure model, in which a component may be good, defective or failed, in order to consider inspection maintenance. Hybrid block replacement and age-based inspection, and opportunistic hybrid policies will also arise naturally in these circumstances and these are briefly investigated. For the simplest policy, an approximation is used to determine the long-run cost and the system reliability. The policies have the interesting property that the system reliability may be a maximum when the long-run cost is close to its minimum. The failure model implies that the effect of maintenance is heterogeneous. The policies themselves imply that maintenance is carried out more prudently to newer than to older systems. The maintenance of traction motor bearings on underground trains is used to illustrate the ideas in the paper.     

A Proposed Improved Replacement Policy for Army Vehicles

The British Army currently uses a replacement policy for non-armoured vehicles which employs age-based repair limits derived by a sensible but rather arbitrary method. The paper describes how a proposed improved replacement policy was devised: one which uses extensive data to compute optimum age-based repair limits and allows these limits to be adjusted for vehicles having exceptionally high and low mileages. The feasibility of a resale type of policy for some vehicles is examined.After a general introduction, the model is described in detail. There follows an account of how the assumptions of the model were tested. Then the results are presented and discussed, in particular the savings to be expected from implementing the improved policy. Finally, the proposals are described which have now been approved by Army staff and are to be submitted to the Treasury.     

A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a system subject to a generalized failure and repair process

Traditionally, in the studies of the optimal maintenance policies for repairable systems, the nonhomogeneous Poisson process model, which corresponds to the minimal repair process, has been intensively applied. However, in many practical situations, the repair type is not necessarily minimal. In this article, a new repair process based on a new counting process model (so‐called the generalized Polya process) is introduced. Then, the issue of the optimal replacement problem is discussed. A bivariate preventive replacement policy is developed and the properties of the optimal policy are studied. Illustrative examples are also presented. In addition, a comparison with a conventional replacement policy is performed.     

A continuous time markov-renewal replacement model for manpower systems

A continuous time Markov-renewal model is presented that generalizes the classical Young and Almond model for manpower systems with given size. The construction is based on the associated Markov-renewal replacement process and exploits the properties of the embedded replacement chain. The joint cumulant generating function of the grade sizes is derived and an asymptotic analysis provides conditions for these to converge in distribution to a multinominal random vector exponentially fast independently of the initial distribution, both for aperiodic and periodic embedded replacement chains. A regenerative approach to the wastage process is outlined and two numerical examples from the literature on manpower planning illustrate the theory.     

A general age-replacement model with minimal repair under renewing free-replacement warranty

A general age-replacement model in which incorporates minimal repair, planned and unplanned replacement, is considered in this paper for products under a renewing free-replacement warranty policy. For both warranted and non-warranted products, cost models from the user’s perspective are developed, and the corresponding optimal replacement ages are derived such that the long-run expected cost rate is minimized. The impacts of a product warranty on the optimal replacement model are investigated analytically. Furthermore, we show that the optimal replacement age for a warranted product is closer to the end of the warranty period than for a non-warranted product. Finally, numerical examples are given for illustration.     

A note on replacement policy for a system subject to non-homogeneous pure birth shocks

A system is subject to shocks that arrive according to a non-homogeneous pure birth process. As shocks occur, the system has two types of failures. Type-I failure (minor failure) is removed by a general repair, whereas type-II failure (catastrophic failure) is removed by an unplanned replacement. The occurrence of the failure type is based on some random mechanism which depends on the number of shocks occurred since the last replacement. Under an age replacement policy, a planned (or scheduled) replacement happens whenever an operating system reaches age T. The aim of this note is to derive the expected cost functions and characterize the structure of the optimal replacement policy for such a general setting. We show that many previous models are special cases of our general model. A numerical example is presented to show the application of the algorithm and several useful insights.     

Hierarchical decision making in production and repair/replacement planning with imperfect repairs under uncertainties

In this paper, we analyse an optimal production, repair and replacement problem for a manufacturing system subject to random machine breakdowns. The system produces parts, and upon machine breakdown, either an imperfect repair is undertaken or the machine is replaced with a new identical one. The decision variables of the system are the production rate and the repair/replacement policy. The objective of the control problem is to find decision variables that minimize total incurred costs over an infinite planning horizon. Firstly, a hierarchical decision making approach, based on a semi-Markov decision model (SMDM), is used to determine the optimal repair and replacement policy. Secondly, the production rate is determined, given the obtained repair and replacement policy. Optimality conditions are given and numerical methods are used to solve them and to determine the control policy. We show that the number of parts to hold in inventory in order to hedge against breakdowns must be readjusted to a higher level as the number of breakdowns increases or as the machine ages. We go from the traditional policy with only one high threshold level to a policy with several threshold levels, which depend on the number of breakdowns. Numerical examples and sensitivity analyses are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.     

Optimal policies for a delay time model with postponed replacement

We develop a delay time model (DTM) to determine the optimal maintenance policy under a novel assumption: postponed replacement. Delay time is defined as the time lapse from the occurrence of a defect up until failure. Inspections can be performed to monitor the system state at non-negligible cost. Most works in the literature assume that instantaneous replacement is enforced as soon as a defect is detected at an inspection. In contrast, we relax this assumption and allow replacement to be postponed for an additional time period. The key motivation is to achieve better utilization of the system’s useful life, and reduce replacement costs by providing a sufficient time window to prepare maintenance resources. We model the preventive replacement cost as a non-increasing function of the postponement interval. We then derive the optimal policy under the modified assumption for a system with exponentially distributed defect arrival time, both for a deterministic delay time and for a more general random delay time. For the settings with a deterministic delay time, we also establish an upper bound on the cost savings that can be attained. A numerical case study is presented to benchmark the benefits of our modified assumption against conventional instantaneous replacement discussed in the literature.     

A number-dependent replacement policy for a system with continuous preventive maintenance and random lead times

This paper considers a number-dependent replacement policy for a system with two failure types that is replaced at the nth type I (minor) failure or the first type II (catastrophic) failure, whichever occurs first. Repair or replacement times are instantaneous but spare/replacement unit delivery lead times are random. Type I failures are repaired at zero cost since preventive maintenance is performed continuously. Type II failures, however, require costly system replacement. A model is developed for the average cost per unit time based on the stochastic behavior of the system and replacement, storage, and downtime costs. The cost-minimizing policy is derived and discussed. We show that the optimal number of type I failures triggering replacement is unique under certain conditions. A numerical example is presented and a sensitivity analysis is performed.     

Optimal maintenance scheduling for a complex manufacturing system subject to deterioration

We address the problem of determining inspection strategy and replacement policy for a deteriorating complex multi-component manufacturing system whose state is partially observable. We develop inspection and replacement scheduling models and other simple maintenance scheduling models via employing an imperfect repair model coupled with a damage process induced by operational conditions. The system state in performance of the imperfectly repaired system is modelled using a proportional intensity model incorporating a damage process and a virtual age process caused by repair. The system is monitored at periodic times and maintenance actions are carried out in response to the observed system state. Decisions to perform imperfect repair and replacement are based on the system state and crossing of a replacement threshold. The model proposed here aims at joint determination of a cost-optimal inspection and replacement policy along with an optimal level of maintenance which result in low maintenance cost and high operational performance and reliability of the system. To demonstrate the use of the model in practical applications a numerical example is provided. Solutions to optimal system parameters are obtained and the response of the model to these parameters is examined. Finally some features of the model are demonstrated. The approach presented provides a framework so that different scenario can be explored.     

On the Optimality of an Equal Life Policy for Equipment Subject to Technological Improvement

The equipment replacement model with equal replacement intervals has been studied by a number of authors. When new equipment is identical to old equipment, it has been proved that an optimum policy involves replacement at equal intervals (the equal life assumption). However, when equipment is subject to technological change, no such proof exists.Since almost all equipment is subject to technological improvement over time, and since the assumption of equal lives vastly simplifies the analysis, such a proof is highly desirable. In the absence of a proof, authors have attempted to justify the equal life assumption as a good approximation to a correct solution. For example, Smith argues that the process of discounting makes future replacements less important and with gradual technological improvement an equal life policy is close to optimum. This paper shows that under the definition of technological change employed by most authors working on equipment replacement problems, it is unnecessary to assume that an equal life policy is optimum, rather the optimality of such a policy can be proven.     

A discussion on “A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a repairable system”

In this short paper, a bivariate optimal replacement policy for a repairable system with a geometric process maintenance model is discussed. Zhang [Zhang, Y.L., 1994. A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a repairable system. Journal of Applied Probability 31, 1123–1127] and Sheu [Sheu, S.H., 1999. Extended optimal replacement model for deteriorating systems. European Journal of Operational Research 112, 503–516] obtained different expression of the long-run average cost per unit time (i.e. average cost rate) of the system respectively. We show that both of their results are correct, therefore, Sheu’s comment (1999) on the result of Zhang (1994) is wrong.     

An optimal replacement policy for a multistate degenerative simple system

In this paper, a degenerative simple system (i.e. a degenerative one-component system with one repairman) with k + 1 states, including k failure states and one working state, is studied. Assume that the system after repair is not “as good as new”, and the degeneration of the system is stochastic. Under these assumptions, we consider a new replacement policy T based on the system age. Our problem is to determine an optimal replacement policy T^∗ such that the average cost rate (i.e. the long-run average cost per unit time) of the system is minimized. The explicit expression of the average cost rate is derived, the corresponding optimal replacement policy can be determined, the explicit expression of the minimum of the average cost rate can be found and under some mild conditions the existence and uniqueness of the optimal policy T^∗ can be proved, too. Further, we can show that the repair model for the multistate system in this paper forms a general monotone process repair model which includes the geometric process repair model as a special case. We can also show that the repair model in the paper is equivalent to a geometric process repair model for a two-state degenerative simple system in the sense that they have the same average cost rate and the same optimal policy. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the theoretical results of this model.     

Efficiency consideration of generalized age replacement policy

Under the generalized age replacement policy, the system is replaced either at the predetermined age or upon failure if its corresponding repair time exceeds the threshold, whichever comes first. In this paper, we investigate the optimal choice of the pre‐determined preventive replacement age for a nonwarranted system, which minimizes the expected cost rate during the life cycle of the system from the customer's perspective under certain cost structures. Furthermore, we discuss several properties of such a generalized age replacement policy in comparison with the traditional age replacement policy. An efficiency, which represents the fractional time that the system is on, is defined under the proposed generalized age replacement policy and its monotonicity properties are investigated as well. The main objective of this study is to investigate the advantageous features of the generalized age replacement policy over the traditional age replacement policy with regard to the availability of the repairable system. Assuming that the system deteriorates with age, we illustrate our proposed optimal policies numerically and observe the impact of relevant parameters on the optimal preventive replacement age.     

基于两类失效的产品保修策略与出保维修优化

基于消费者对保修的需求,设计消费者偏爱的保修策略是制造商巩固市场地位、提升市场竞争力的一种战略决策。与此同时,以较低费用制定较长出保服役时间的出保维修策略也是消费者一直追求的目标。本文以两类失效产品为研究对象,首先从制造商角度将消费者偏爱的更新免费更换保修策略与产品定价相融合,开展了产品保修策略设计。其次,从消费者角度将预防维修与经典周期更换策略相融合,提出了维修—周期更换策略,且将其作为出保维修策略并对相应的性能进行了说明。通过数值实验发现,利润模型可对保修开展设计;与总费用模型作为目标函数相比,费用率模型作为目标函数可降低寿命周期费用;与经典周期更换策略相比,提出的维修—周期更换策略能使出保服役时间更长、费用率更低。     

Optimal replacement policy for a deteriorating system with increasing repair times

This paper considers an optimal maintenance policy for a practical and reparable deteriorating system subject to random shocks. Modeling the repair time by a geometric process and the failure mechanism by a generalized δ-shock process, we develop an explicit expression of the long-term average cost per time unit for the system under a threshold-type replacement policy. Based on this average cost function, we propose a finite search algorithm to locate the optimal replacement policy N^∗ to minimize the average cost rate. We further prove that the optimal policy N^∗ is unique and present some numerical examples. Many practical systems fit the model developed in this paper.     

有限可修备件条件下系统计划更换策略

在现有的计划更换模型的基础上 ,研究了一种备件有限及部件可修的更换策略问题。利用在更换周期点上具有的马尔可夫性质 ,以系统首次故障前平均工作时间最大为目标建立了确定最佳更换周期的模型。