Systemic risk and optimal fee for central clearing counterparty under partial netting

We propose a novel central clearing counterparty (CCP) design for a financial network, in which the participation of banks in the CCP depends on the proportional clearing fee. We obtain the optimal fee that maximizes the CCP’s net worth. We show that partial participation of banks in the CCP at the optimal fee rate reduces banks’ aggregate shortfall and also reduces the overall systemic risk. We also carry out numerical examples to verify the theoretical results.     

Worst-case optimal investment with a random number of crashes

We study a portfolio optimization problem in a market which is under the threat of crashes. At random times, the investor receives a warning that a crash in the risky asset might occur. We construct a strategy which renders the investor indifferent about an immediate crash of maximum size and no crash at all. We then verify that this strategy outperforms every other trading strategy using a direct comparison approach. We conclude with numerical examples and calculating the costs of hedging against crashes.     

Control of ruin probabilities by discrete-time investments

The control problem of controlling ruin probabilities by investments in a financial market is studied. The insurance business is described by the usual Cramer-Lundberg-type model and the risk driver of the financial market is a compound Poisson process. Conditions for investments to be profitable are derived by means of discrete-time dynamic programming. Moreover Lundberg bounds are established for the controlled model.     

On convex risk measures on <Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis><Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis></Superscript>-spaces

Much of the recent literature on risk measures is concerned with essentially bounded risks in L ^∞. In this paper we investigate in detail continuity and representation properties of convex risk measures on L ^p spaces. This frame for risks is natural from the point of view of applications since risks are typically modelled by unbounded random variables. The various continuity properties of risk measures can be interpreted as robustness properties and are useful tools for approximations. As particular examples of risk measures on L ^p we discuss the expected shortfall and the shortfall risk. In the final part of the paper we consider the optimal risk allocation problem for L ^p risks.     

OPTIMAL CONTROL OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS WIITH DELAY

Recentlymoderncontroltheoryhasbeenwidelyusedineconomymanagementsystems.Particularlythetheoryofoptimalcontrolisusedinfinancialmanagementsystemswithgreatsuccess.Butwenoticethatfinancialmanagementsystemsaregenerallycontrolsystemswithdelay.Theoptimizationofth…     

The early exercise region for Bermudan options on two underlyings

This paper investigates the early exercise region for Bermudan options on two underlying assets. We present a set of analytical validation results for the early exercise region which can be used as a means of validating pricing techniques. When all strike prices are identical we show the existence of an intersection point such that for any asset price pair below this point early exercise is always optimal. We develop an approximation to this point in the two asset put case. When the strike prices are not all equal, we show that three separate cases exist for the early exercise region. For a Bermudan put on two assets we present these cases and show that there exists a critical point in which the boundaries of the two asset early exercise region bifurcate. Comparisons are drawn between the Bermudan results presented and the corresponding American option results.     

企业诚信度的贝叶斯估计研究

本文利用贝叶斯分析方法建立了评估企业诚信度的概率估计模型,并选取了一些有代表性的企业进行实证分析。与现有的同类问题研究相比,本模型的特点是将决策者个人经验和主观判断作为先验信息与样本信息相结合、将财务数据与诚信表现相结合,从而提高了估计的可靠性和准确性。     

Solvency II,regulatory capital,and optimal reinsurance: How good are Conditional Value-at-Risk and spectral risk measures?

We study the problem of optimal reinsurance as a means of risk management in the regulatory framework of Solvency II under Conditional Value-at-Risk and, as its natural extension, spectral risk measures. First, we show that stop-loss reinsurance is optimal under both Conditional Value-at-Risk and spectral risk measures. Spectral risk measures thus constitute a more general class of suitable regulatory risk measures than specific Conditional Value-at-Risk. At the same time, the established type of stop-loss reinsurance can be maintained as the optimal risk management strategy that minimizes regulatory capital. Second, we derive the optimal deductibles for stop-loss reinsurance. We show that under Conditional Value-at-Risk, the optimal deductible tends towards restrictive and counter-intuitive corner solutions or “plunging”, which is a serious objection against its use in regulatory risk management. By means of the broader class of spectral risk measures, we are able to overcome this shortcoming as optimal deductibles are now interior solutions. Especially, the recently discussed power spectral risk measures and the Wang risk measure are shown to avoid any plunging. They yield a one-to-one correspondence between the risk parameter and the optimal deductible and, thus, provide economically plausible risk management strategies.     

A Coherent Aggregation Framework for Stress Testing and Scenario Analysis

Abstract

We present a methodology to aggregate in a coherent manner conditional stress losses in a trading or banking book. The approach bypasses the specification of unconditional probabilities of the individual stress events and ensures by a linear programming approach so that the (subjective or frequentist) conditional probabilities chosen by the risk manager are internally consistent. The admissibility requirement greatly reduces the degree of arbitrariness in the conditional probability matrix if this is assigned subjectively. The approach can be used to address the requirements of the regulators on the Instantaneous Risk Charge.     

Selection of certain dichotomous experiments

Summary The problem of allocating a single observation to one of the two available populations is considered. Suppose that a certain characteristic has densityf in one population, and has densityg in the other. On the basis of the value observed, one must specify which population has densityf. It is assumed that when a wrong population is chosen, a certain known loss is incurred. The problem is to allocate the observation so as to minimize the expected loss. General conditions onf andg are derived to decide which population should be selected for taking the observation. Research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grant No. SOC79-06386. Work done while on sabbatical leave at Carnegie-Mellon University.     

最优消费条件下的动态风险投资组合决策模型

本文给出了一个考虑最优消费的动态风险投资组合数学模型 ,通过该模型投资者能合理确定投资、储蓄和消费的最佳比例。同时本文也指出了该模型所隐含的一些政策涵义     

带风险指数的金融均衡的存在性定理及其结构特征(下)

本文主要论证了在不完全市场条件下带风险指数的金融均衡的存在性，并揭示其均衡结构的特征．本文中建立的模型是一、二期货币投入产出金融经济且具有可微的资产结构，这一模型包括了许多具有特殊资产结构的均衡模型，如实资产结构、虚资产结构、恒秩资产结构的均衡模型．因此本文的这一模型具有广泛的应用前景和实用价值．接着给出了本文的金融均衡的存在性定理，再借助微分拓扑给出它的证明过程，这一证明过程较之以前证明均衡存在性的经典方法（如Duffie，D＆W．Shfer（1985）的方法）要简便得多．同时也应注意到本文的这一结论既适用于资产市场下会随机风险因素的情形，也适用于商品空间为无限维的情形，除此之外，还给出了怎样判别资产结构是否属于T类的判别法，为检验均衡存在性提供了更为便利的途径．最后，本文论证了在金融市场里，尽管由于稀缺性的存在，从而导致均衡分配的多样化，然而均衡分配集却形成了一光滑子流，但该流形的维数与稀缺性有关．换句话说，尽管市场是不完全的，但均市分配不确定性的反却是可比的．如此使得人们对均衡资产结构的认识更进一步．     

带风险指数的金融均衡的存在性定理及其结构特征（上）

本文主要论证了在不完全市场条件下带风险指数的金融均衡的存在性，并揭示其均衡结构的特征．本文中建立的模型是一、二期货币投入产出金融经济且具有可微的资产结构，这一模型包括了许多具有特殊资产结构的均衡模型，如实资产结构、应资产结构、恒秩资产结构的均衡模型．因此本文的这一模型具有广泛的应用前景和实用价值．接着给出了本文的金融均衡的存在性定理，再借助微分拓扑给出它的证明过程，这一证明过程较之以前证明均衡存在性的经典方法（如Ｄｕｆｆｉｅ，Ｄ＆Ｗ．Ｓｈｆｅｒ（１９８５）的方法）要简便得多．同时也应注意到本文的这一结论既适用于资产市场下含随机风险因素的情形，也适用于商品空间为无限维的情形．除此之外，还给出了怎样判别资产结构是否属于Ｔ类的判别法，为检验均衡存在性提供了更为便利的途径．最后，本文论证了在金融市场里，尽管由于稀缺性的存在，从而导致均衡分配的多样化，然而均衡分配集却形成了一光滑子流，但该流形的维数与稀缺性有关．换句话说，尽管市场是不完全的，但均衡分配不确定性的度却是可比的．如此使得人们对均衡资产结构的认识更进一步．     

关于两个伪硬币问题的一些新结果

下面的问题被称为n个外观不可区分硬币的分组测试问题,每个硬币可以是伪硬币或是标准硬币.本文所涉及的问题是:已知一个由n个硬币组成的集合中有两个伪(较重的)硬币,用一台天平以最小的称重次数,从这n个硬币组成的集合中探测出两个伪(较重的)硬币. 我们构造了找出两个伪(较重的)硬币的两个算法,并且这两个算法是最优的.     

关于三个相同伪硬币问题的一些新结果

本文中,给定一台比较型测试装置和确切的三个相同伪硬币出现的信息,作者研究最小测试数的探求问题,这个最小测试数能从λ个有同样外观的硬币组成的集合中鉴别出三个相同的伪硬币,这里λ≥4.作者构造了对于无限多个λ值的一个最优鉴别分组测试算法,这个最优鉴别分组测试算法改进了To（s）ic的对于无限多个λ值的一个最优鉴别分组测试算法,也改进了Bo（s）njak的对于无限多个λ值的一个最优鉴别分组测试算法.作者还提出另一个鉴别分组测试算法,并且猜想这个算法是最优的.     

Prediction of financial distress: An empirical study of listed Chinese companies using data mining

The deterioration in profitability of listed companies not only threatens the interests of the enterprise and internal staff, but also makes investors face significant financial loss. It is important to establish an effective early warning system for prediction of financial crisis for better corporate governance. This paper studies the phenomenon of financial distress for 107 Chinese companies that received the label ‘special treatment’ from 2001 to 2008 by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We use data mining techniques to build financial distress warning models based on 31 financial indicators and three different time windows by comparing these 107 firms to a control group of firms. We observe that the performance of neural networks is more accurate than other classifiers, such as decision trees and support vector machines, as well as an ensemble of multiple classifiers combined using majority voting. An important contribution of the paper is to discover that financial indicators, such as net profit margin of total assets, return on total assets, earnings per share, and cash flow per share, play an important role in prediction of deterioration in profitability. This paper provides a suitable method for prediction of financial distress for listed companies in China.     

Contagion-based distortion risk measures

We propose a class of distortion measures based on contagion from an external “scenario” variable. The dependence between the scenario and the variable whose risk is measured is modeled with a copula function with horizontal concave sections. Special cases are the perfect dependence copula, which generates expected shortfall, the Marshall–Olkin family and the Placket family. As an application, we evaluate distortion measures bank liabilities with respect to a country risk scenario in the current European debt crisis.     

Sensitivity analysis of the Eisenberg-Noe model of contagion

We use linear programming to provide a sensitivity analysis of Eisenberg and Noe’s one-period model of contagion via direct bilateral links. We provide a formula for the sensitivities of clearing payments and the terminal wealth of each node to initial wealth of each node.