尾部风险网络视角下的金融机构系统性风险贡献研究

金融机构的尾部风险关联模式及结构在金融系统性风险的形成演化中发挥重要作用。利用CoVaR指标及分位数回归方法,衡量金融机构之间的尾部风险传染强度,进而建立金融机构尾部风险动态网络。分析全连接网络及阈值法下过滤网络的全局和局部拓扑结构特征及其动态演化规律。建立面板数据回归模型,研究网络拓扑结构特征对金融机构系统性风险贡献的影响。实证研究发现,全连接网络的节点强度,能有效地衡量金融机构尾部风险传染强度及承受强度,并揭示其动态变化规律;各机构的尾部风险传染强度及承受强度排序匹配性存在差异;随着时间推进,各金融机构间的平均尾部风险传染路径缩短、系统性风险更易迅速累积和爆发;滞后一期的节点出度、节点入度及聚集系数越大,相应金融机构的系统性风险贡献越小;滞后一期的节点介数和节点接近中心度越大,相应金融机构的系统性风险贡献越大。研究结果对于金融机构的宏观审慎监管及系统性风险管理,提供了一个全新的基于金融机构尾部风险网络的视角。     

Large exposure estimation through automatic business group identification

Large exposure rules are considered critical for financial institutions, as they directly restrict the lending activity of banks to clients. However, empirical evidence suggests that those rules are difficult both for regulators to enforce and for financial institutions to implement. We present a data-driven analytical model that automatically and algorithmically creates groups of related parties based on ownership information, financial dependencies, business associations, and family ties. We develop a methodology based on linear algebra and networks to group clients, highlight missing critical information, and identify unreported business partners. The approach can be used both prospectively by banking institutions analyzing credit risk and by regulators. We include a case study, applying the methodology retrospectively to highlight large exposure violations and systemic risk leading up to the 2008 banking crises in Iceland.     

广义双曲线分布模型在我国证券市场风险度量中的应用研究

经济的全球化、衍生产品的大量出现以及因此导致的金融市场的动荡使得金融机构越来越需要更有效的风险管理方法。而如何精确度量风险是风险管理的关键问题。本文试图从金融收益分布假设着手改善风险度量的精度。国外学者研究发现广义双曲线分布比其它分布形式可以更好地拟合实际收益分布特征。本文首次把广义双曲线分布应用到VaR的分析方法中计算我国股票指数的VaR。实证结果表明，基于广义双曲线分布的方法得到了较好的预测结果。     

Diversification,protection of liability holders and regulatory arbitrage

Any solvency regime for financial institutions should be aligned with the fundamental objectives of regulation: protecting liability holders and securing the stability of the financial system. The first objective leads to consider surplus-invariant capital adequacy tests, i.e. tests that do not depend on the surplus of a financial institution. We provide a complete characterization of closed, convex, surplus-invariant capital adequacy tests that highlights an inherent tension between surplus-invariance and the desire to give credit for diversification. The second objective leads to requiring consistency of capital adequacy tests across jurisdictions. Of particular importance in this respect are capital adequacy tests that remain invariant under a change of numéraire. We establish an intimate link between surplus- and numéraire invariant tests.     

Social efficiency in microfinance institutions

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are a special case in the financial world. They have a double financial and social role and need to be efficient at both. In this paper, we try to measure the efficiency of MFIs in relation to financial and social outputs using data envelopment analysis. For the analysis of financial efficiency, we rely on existing literature for traditional financial institutions. To this we have added two indicators of social performance: impact on women and a poverty reach index. We have studied the relationship between social and financial efficiency, and the relationship between efficiency and other indicators, such as profitability. Other aspects studied are the relation between social efficiency and type of institution—Non-Governmental Organization (NGO)—, non-NGO, and the importance of geographical region of activity. The results reveal the importance of social efficiency assessment.     

突发公共卫生事件对系统性金融风险的冲击及传染效应研究

首先基于面板向量自回归模型考察了突发公共卫生事件对系统性金融风险的冲击影响,接着综合考虑突发公共卫生事件的影响及其所导致的收益率的非对称性构建单指标非对称CoVaR模型,最后借助LASSO惩罚函数与局部估计法进行求解,以此构建有向网络分析金融机构间的传染效应.研究发现:(1)突发公共卫生事件冲击会使系统性金融风险水平短...     

低碳环境友好技术政产学研金协同创新演化博弈研究

在气候变化应对日益紧迫的背景下,研究了政府、企业、研发机构和金融机构(政产学研金)参与低碳环境友好技术(LCEFT)创新的条件和策略。以企业合作关系为假设条件,引入金融主体和科研机构,构建了LCEFT的政产学研金协调创新博弈模型,深入分析了碳权质押、信用等级、投资回报等因素对博弈系统群体协调创新策略的影响。研究表明,金融机构参与协同创新的决策受到政府奖惩机制、绿色信贷项目盈利和风险等因素的影响;多主体在资源和能力上的互补性正是LCEFT协同创新联盟形成的关键;政府部门的奖惩机制能够促进多主体合作,但难以使得整体获得最优,达到整体最优的关键是有效地发挥政府部门的引导作用和金融机构的杠杆作用。本文为政府部门制定绿色金融、产学研协同创新及产业化管理机制提供了新思路和一定的决策参考。     

A multicriteria approach for rating the credit risk of financial institutions

Within the new bank regulatory context, the assessment of the credit risk of financial institutions is an important issue for supervising authorities and investors. This study explores the possibility of a developing risk assessment model for financial institutions using a multicriteria classification method. The analysis is based on publicly available financial data for UK firms. The results indicate that the proposed multicriteria methodology provides promising results compared to well known statistical methods.     

Assessing the asymmetric effects on branch rivalry of Spanish financial sector restructuring

Spanish financial institutions have been heavily affected by the banking crisis that began in 2008. Many of them, especially Spanish savings banks (or Cajas), had to merge with other institutions or had to be rescued. We address the question of up to what point the nature of competition in this sector has changed as a result of the crisis. Although institutions compete in many ways, we concentrate on their presence in the main street through bank branches open to the public (i.e., retail banking competition). Our measure of inter-firm rivalry is based on a geographical proximity measure that we calculate for the years 2008 (before the crisis) and 2012 (the last available data set). The technical approach is based on multidimensional unfolding, a methodology which allows us to graphically represent the asymmetric nature of such rivalry. These maps visualise the salient aspects of the system during the two dates analysed, and can be understood without a detailed technical knowledge.

     

Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks’ coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company’s stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.     

The efficiency effects of a single market for financial services in Europe

This paper examines the potential efficiency effects of a single market for financial services in Europe. The topics covered include universal banking, the merger and acquisition process itself, cross-border ownership and management of financial institutions, and the effects of consolidation of financial institutions on the supply of relationship lending services to informationally opaque small businesses. The research reviewed here suggests that the creation of a single market for the European financial services industry is not likely to bring about strong efficiency gains and that cross-border efficiency barriers may prevent the single market from becoming a reality.     

Financial networks with socially responsible investing

In this paper, we develop a framework for the modeling, analysis, and computation of solutions to multitiered financial network problems with socially responsible investment in which both the sources of financial funds as well as the intermediaries are multicriteria decision-makers. We assume that these decision-makers seek not only to maximize their net revenues but also minimize risk with the risk being penalized by a variable weight. Furthermore, we assume that the intermediaries are socially responsible companies, who want to maximize their social responsibility levels. We make explicit the behavior of the various decision-makers, including the consumers at the demand markets for the financial products. We derive the optimality conditions, and demonstrate that the governing equilibrium conditions of the financial network economy can be formulated as a finite-dimensional variational inequality problem. Qualitative properties of the equilibrium financial flow and price pattern are provided. A numerical example is used to illustrate the model.     

Corruption and its detection: a graph-theoretic approach

We consider a corruption network where agents, both internal or external to the network, use connections and bribes to obtain goods or services outside the formal procedures. We develop a graph-theoretic model for the system and present sufficient conditions for detectability of the corruption status of at least one agent. Where detectability is not possible, we determine the topology of the network and all the possible corruption statuses of the agents. Further we provide, if we have information on the corruption status of a single agent, an algorithm that identifies the corruption status of every other agent in the network. Our results provide tools for detecting corrupt agents in organizations such as revenue authorities, municipalities, police, vehicle inspection departments, financial institutions and firms, while allowing the system to operate in normal mode.     

Financial networks with intermediation: Risk management with variable weights

In this paper, we develop a framework for the modeling, analysis, and computation of solutions to multitiered financial network problems with intermediaries in which both the sources of financial funds as well as the intermediaries are multicriteria decision-makers. In particular, we assume that these decision-makers seek not only to maximize their net revenues but also to minimize risk with the risk being penalized by a variable weight. We make explicit the behavior of the various decision-makers, including the consumers at the demand markets for the financial products. We derive the optimality conditions, and demonstrate that the governing equilibrium conditions of the financial network economy can be formulated as a finite-dimensional variational inequality problem. Qualitative properties of the equilibrium financial flow and price pattern are provided. A computational procedure that exploits the network structure of the problem is proposed and then applied to several numerical examples.     

Systemic risk and copula models

Central European Journal of Operations Research - Systemic risk describes the phenomenon that dependency adds a specific component of risk to a system or network of (financial) institutions as a...     

Financial sustainability and poverty outreach within a network of village banks in Cameroon: A multi-DEA approach

Microfinance institutions face a double bottom-line. They perform financial tasks by giving microcredits to their customers and support projects aiming at reducing poverty. In doing so, they have to be financially self-sufficient and to target poor people excluded from the traditional financial systems. However, a trade-off may exist between financial sustainability and poverty outreach for these institutions. By using a multi-DEA approach, this paper shows that even if a trade-off exists for 15% of the MC² (Mutuelles Communautaires de Croissance) in Cameroon, there is no trade-off for 46% of them. In order to increase, without trade-off, financial and social performance of inefficient MC², a benchmarking approach combing DEA and performance indicators has been developed. DEA is used for identifying best-practices and setting benchmarking goals. Performance indicators are used for characterizing areas needing improvements and following the evolution of MC² toward their goals, i.e., for implementing benchmarking. Complementarity of both approaches provides a tool box for improving financial and social efficiency and reducing the trade-off between financial sustainability and poverty outreach of microfinance institutions.     

Financial contagion: extending the exposures network of the Mexican financial system

Direct contagion has been widely studied in recent years and little evidence has been found to be relevant to the study of systemic risk. However, we argue that this limited contagion effect might be associated with a lack of relevant data. A common assumption for the estimation of the matrices of exposures is to apply the maximum entropy principle to deal with data gaps; such an assumption might lead to an underestimation of contagion risk. In this paper, there are no data gaps and the information set is extended from interbank exposures alone to exposures among most of the financial intermediaries in the Mexican financial system (we even include exposures to some international foreign banks). Naturally, the contagion risk of an extended network of exposures changes with respect to the interbank exposures network, as there are many more institutions which can be the source of contagion and there are more institutions which can fail due to contagion. The most important contribution of this paper is that it provides evidence on financial contagion with an extended exposures network under stressful conditions. The results presented here support the international efforts by the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board to increase the amount of information available which can be used to assess systemic risk and contagion based on exposures and funding data.     

Numerically intensive computing in Japanese financial institutions

Two major sophisticated services are needed by Japanese financial institutions. They are fund management and the development of new financial products. These are needed because of the increase of fund to be managed and deregulation. This paper will first, explain the current situation in Japanese financial institutions and, second, introduce the use of numerically intensive computing to provide these new services.     

基于政府补贴的养老服务市场供给研究

随着我国老龄化速度加快,养老服务的有效供给问题是政府和学者关注的焦点。考虑政府财政补贴下,引入民办与公办养老服务的替代因子,构建民办养老机构与公办养老机构的服务动态供给模型,分析不同补贴方式和补贴力度对服务均衡供给量的影响,并进一步通过补贴乘数分析政府补贴对养老服务机构最优供给决策的影响程度。结果表明:政府对民办养老机构的财政补贴可以增加养老服务市场供给量,相较于运营补贴,政府建设补贴的政策效应更加明显;财政补贴降低了民办养老机构的建设成本和投资风险,刺激社会资本投入的积极性,民办养老服务供给增加幅度大于公办养老服务供给减少幅度,养老服务市场有效供给增加。在财政预算约束下,选择恰当的财政补贴方式,可以提高财政资源的配置效率,增加养老服务市场的有效供给,缓解养老服务财政压力。     

MTS法用于上市公司财务质量评估初探

本文应用MTS法(MahananobisTaguchiSystem)于我国股票市场,以评估上市公司的财务质量。通过综合分析深圳和上海1000余家上市公司2000年年度财务报表的15项财务比率发现,利用MTS法提供的技术可以较有效识别存在财务质量以及财务造假问题的公司。