考虑碳减排成本的内生经济增长路径研究

为了分析碳减排对内生经济增长的影响,将碳减排比例引入生产函数,将对气候变化的警惕意识引入效用函数,建立了考虑碳减排成本的内生经济增长模型,比较分析了各参数对经济增长路径的影响.长期来看,碳强度、碳减排比例与经济增长之间呈负向关系.低碳技术应用越广泛,研发成果对技术积累贡献率越大,消费者对当前消费的偏好程度越小,人们对气候变化的警惕意识越强,越有利于经济可持续发展.     

能耗强度与能源结构优化对内生经济增长影响研究

本文在垂直创新模型框架下,将能耗强度和碳减排比例引入生产函数,将人们对气候变化的警惕意识引入效用函数,建立了一个动态的内生低碳经济增长模型。通过求解所建动态优化模型,找到了经济长期均衡增长的最优路径,讨论了能源强度和能源消费结构变化与经济均衡增长的相互关系,分析了各参数对经济最优增长路径的影响,比较了化石能源内部消费结构不变和逐年清洁两种情景下的经济最优增长路径的异同。长期来看,能源强度、二氧化碳减排速率与经济增长率有相互的负向线性关系,缩小反映化石能源内部消费结构的综合碳排放系数对经济增长有促进作用。非化石能源比例越高,低碳技术应用越广泛,研发成果对技术积累的贡献率越大,消费者对当前消费的偏好程度越小,人们对气候变化的警惕意识越强,则越有利于经济的低碳发展。     

基于组合赋权法的我国CO2排放量影响因素的评价研究

为客观和准确地挖掘和评价我国CO₂排放量影响因素,选取技术投入、对外贸易开放程度、产业结构、能源消费结构、经济增长水平、人口规模和绿色植被用地面积等因素作为评价依据,构建我国CO₂排放量影响因素指标体系。在此基础上,基于组合赋权法构建我国CO₂排放量影响因素评价模型,实证分析2000~2011年我国CO₂排放量影响因素。组合赋权法结果显示:技术投入、产业结构、能源消费结构、经济增长和绿色植被用地面积是影响我国CO₂排放量的主要因素。组合赋权法在我国CO₂排放量影响因素评价分析的运用,提高了评价的客观性和科学性,为进一步确定CO₂排放量影响因素提供有价值的参考。     

Estimation of the atmospheric greenhouse gas spatial distribution in the Arctic using a back trajectory model

We present a method and results of the retrieval of average effective fields of atmospheric impurity concentration using a passive wind sensing (remote sensing) numeric technology referred to as Fluid Location of the Atmosphere (FLA). The quasi-two-dimensional problem of reconstruction of the spatial distribution of the greenhouse gases assuming the diffusion Peclet number infinitely large was solved numerically. The study is based on in-situ measurements of the atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide during the expeditions to Belyy Island in the Kara Sea in July and August of 2016 to 2017. The differences and common features of CH₄ and CO₂ spatial distribution in this region of the Arctic during specified periods were analyzed. CH₄ concentrations tended to decrease with moving from the continent to the remote sea areas. For CO₂ on the contrary, lower values were observed over the continent, and they increased with a distance from the coastline. For both greenhouse gases, average atmospheric concentrations increased in 2017 relative to 2016.     

A coupled multi-component approach for bacterial methane oxidation in landfill cover layers

Methane (CH₄), which has a 25 times higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide (CO₂), can be oxidated by methanotrophic bacteria into carbon dioxide and water. The biological oxidation of methane can be considered in the passive aftercare phase of landfills in order to reduce climate-damaging methane emissions. Methanotrophic bacteria are situated within the landfill cover layer and convert the harmful methane emissions arising from the degradation of organic waste to the less harmful carbon dioxide. Hence, the passive aftercare of landfills in terms of methane oxidation layers is an efficient method to reduce contributions to the greenhouse effect. To model the coupled processes during phase transition from methane to carbon dioxide, the well-known Theory of Porous Media (TPM) combined with the Mixture Theory has been used in order to develop a multi-component Finite Element calculation concept, see [1, 3]. The thermodynamic consistent model analyzes the relevant gas productions of methane, carbon dioxide and oxygen. The model also accounts for the driving phenomena of production, diffusion and advection. (© 2014 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

基于分位数回归的二氧化碳排放与经济增长

选取我国1960～2009年的年度数据,建立了二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系模型,并利用分位数回归方法对我国二氧化碳排放与经济增长倒U假说进行实证研究.研究结果表明,Kuznets的假说在我国二氧化碳与经济增长之间并不稳定,随着碳排放量的增加,我国二氧化碳与经济增长之间先呈现"N型",之后呈现Kuznets的"倒U型",最后演变成一条水平的直线.     

Dynamics of a coupled atmosphere–ocean model

We consider a coupled atmosphere–ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics and nonautonomous interaction at the air–sea interface. First, we show that the coupled atmosphere–ocean system is stable under the external fluctuation in the atmospheric energy balance relation. Then, we estimate the atmospheric temperature feedback in terms of the freshwater flux, heat flux and the external fluctuation at the air–sea interface, as well as the earth's longwave radiation coefficient and the shortwave solar radiation profile. Finally, we prove that the coupled atmosphere–ocean system has time-periodic, quasiperiodic and almost periodic motions, whenever the external fluctuation in the atmospheric energy balance relation is time-periodic, quasiperiodic and almost periodic, respectively.     

Well-posedness of a moving-boundary problem with two moving reaction strips

We deal with a one-dimensional coupled system of semi-linear reaction-diffusion equations in two a priori unknown moving phases driven by a non-local kinetic condition. The PDEs system models the penetration of gaseous carbon dioxide in unsaturated porous materials (like concrete). The main issue is that the strong competition between carbon dioxide diffusion and the fast reaction of carbon dioxide with calcium hydroxide–which are the main active reactants–leads to a sudden drop in the alkalinity of concrete near the steel reinforcement. This process–called concrete carbonation–facilitates chemical corrosion and drastically influences the lifetime of the material. We present details of a class of moving-boundary models with kinetic condition at the moving boundary and address the local existence, uniqueness and stability of positive weak solutions. We also point out our concept of global solvability. The application of such moving-boundary systems to the prediction of carbonation penetration into ordinary concrete samples is illustrated numerically.     

Symbolic computation of conservation laws and exact solutions of a coupled variable-coefficient modified Korteweg–de Vries system

In this paper we study a generalized coupled variable-coefficient modified Korteweg–de Vries (CVCmKdV) system that models a two-layer fluid, which is applied to investigate the atmospheric and oceanic phenomena such as the atmospheric blockings, interactions between the atmosphere and ocean, oceanic circulations and hurricanes. The conservation laws of the CVCmKdV system are derived using the multiplier approach and a new conservation theorem. In addition to this, a similarity reduction and exact solutions with the aid of symbolic computation are computed.     

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in the Lifecycle of ENSO： The Coupled Wave Oscillator

To explain the oscillatory nature of E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, many ENSO theories emphasize the free oceanic equatorial waves propagating/reflecting within the Pacific Ocean, or the discharge/recharge of Pacific-basin-averaged ocean heat content. ENSO signals in the Indian and Atlantic oceans are often considered as remote response to the Pacific SST anomaly through atmospheric teleconnections. This study investigates the ENSO life cycle near the equator using long-term observational datasets. Space-time spectral analysis is used to identify and isolate the dominant interannual oceanic and atmospheric wave modes associated with ENSO. Nino3 SST anomaly is utilized as the ENSO index, and lag-correlation/regression are used to construct the composite ENSO life cycle. The propagation, structure and feedback mechanisms of the dominant wave modes are studied in detail. The results show that the dominant oceanic equatorial wave modes associated with ENSO are not free waves, but are two ocean-atmosphere coupled waves including a coupled Kelvin wave and waves are not confined only to the Pacific a coupled equatorial Rossby （ER） wave. These Ocean, but are of planetary scale with zonal wavenumbers 1-2, and propagate all the way around the equator in more than three years, leading to the longer than 3-year period of ENSO. When passing the continents, they become uncoupled atmospheric waves. The coupled Kelvin wave has larger variance than the coupled ER wave, making the total signals dominated by eastward propagation. Surface zonal wind stress （x） acts to slow down the waves. The two coupled waves interact with each other through boundary reflection and superposition, and they also interact with an off-equatorial Rossby wave in north Pacific along 15N through boundary reflection and wind stress forcing. The precipitation anomalies of the two coupled waves meet in the eastern Pacific shortly after the SST maximum of ENSO and excite a dry atmospheric Kelvin wave which quickly circles the whole equator and leads to a zonally symmetric signal of troposphere temperature. ENSO signals in the Indian and Atlantic oceans are associated with the two coupled waves as well as the fast atmospheric Kelvin wave. The discharge/recharge of Pacific-basin-averaged ocean heat content is also contributed by the two coupled waves. The above results suggest the presence of an alternative coupled wave oscillator mechanism for the oscillatory nature of ENSO.     

中国碳排放的省域差异及影响因素的实证研究

参照IPCC(2006)以及国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室和国家发改委能源研究所)的方法,估算了我国30个省(直辖市、自治区)的1997—2011年期间的二氧化碳排放量.数据显示,我国各省(直辖市、自治区)的二氧化碳排放量从整体上基本都呈现出上升趋势,地区差异比较显著.总体上来讲,我国的二氧化碳排放量呈现出由东到西依次递减的规律特征,东部地区的二氧化碳排放量最多,中部地区次之,西部地区二氧化碳排放量最少,而且东部地区的二氧化碳排放在绝对量上大大超过中西两大区域.产业结构和经济发展是影响各地区二氧化碳排放量的主要因素,能源消费结构和出口贸易对各地区碳排放量的影响不显著.     

Asymptotic stability of the human respiratory system with multiple state‐dependent delays

We extend the Grodins model of human cardiovascular‐respiratory system with multiple blood transport time delays into a model with four threshold type state‐dependent delays, in order to investigate the asymptotic stability of carbon dioxide concentrations in the lung, brain, cerebrospinal fluid, and tissue compartments. We show that the extended model can be transformed into a model with four discrete time delays and obtain sufficient conditions for local and global asymptotic stabilities of the extended model by constructing Lyapunov functionals. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the general results.     

A sequential data assimilation method based on the properties of a diffusion-type process

Data assimilation method, as commonly used in numerical ocean and atmospheric circulation models, produces an estimation of state variables in terms of stochastic processes. This estimation is based on limit properties of a diffusion-type process which follows from the convergence of a sequence of Markov chains with jumps. The conditions for this convergence are investigated. The optimisation problem and the optimal filtering problem associated with the search of the best possible approximation of the true state variable are posed and solved. The results of a simple numerical experiment are discussed. It is shown that the proposed data assimilation method works properly and can be used in practical applications, particularly in meteorology and oceanography.     

Adaptive management of energy transitions in long-term climate change

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) demands stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. This requires an unprecedented degree of international action for emission reductions and technological change in the energy sector. Extending the established optimal control approach, the paper combines the concepts of adaptive control, inverse modeling and local optimization to climate change decision-making and management. An alternative decision model is described where controls are adjusted towards a moving target under changing conditions. A framework for integrated assessment is introduced, where a basic climate model is coupled to an economic production function with energy as a production factor, which is controlled by the allocation of investments to alternative energy technologies. Investment strategies are shaped by value functions, including utility, costs and climate damages for a given future time horizon, which are translated into admissible emission limits to keep atmospheric carbon concentrations and global mean temperature asymptotically below a given threshold. Conditions for switching between management and technology paths with different costs and carbon intensities are identified. To take account of the substantial uncertainties, an exemplary case discusses the sensitivity of the results to variation of crucial parameters, in particular time discounting, climate damage, taxes and time horizon for decision-making.     

A review of recent research on green road freight transportation

Road freight transportation is a major contributor to carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. Reducing these emissions in transportation route planning requires an understanding of vehicle emission models and their inclusion into the existing optimization methods. This paper provides a review of recent research on green road freight transportation.     

Studying the role of temperature and salinity anomalies in the formation of world ocean meridional circulation modes

A numerical model of the ocean circulation is considered for using in a coupled oceanice-atmosphere climatic model. Preliminary experiments conducted on a numerical grid with a coarse spatial resolution over a period of one thousand years reproduce the World ocean dynamics under climatic surface forcing. By introducing anomalies into the surface sources, the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to thermohaline variability in the northern regions of the Atlantic Ocean is investigated.     

碳交易驱动下建筑业主最优碳减排决策研究

对碳排放总量和强度都持续刚性增长的建筑领域,利用市场机制,借助碳交易来控制和减少其碳排放是一项重大的制度创新。本文通过构建多目标决策优化模型,探讨建筑业主在碳交易驱动形成的复杂动态环境下的最优碳减排策略;并基于实证数据进行情景耕耘,模拟和预测业主减排策略的动态适应性调整。研究发现:①业主碳减排决策受政府补贴强度和违规惩罚倍率调整的冲击更为显著;②目前碳市场“一刀切”的惩罚倍率极易使建筑业主陷入“明罚实奖”的惩罚悖论;③政府应采用“补贴退坡”政策并对不同类型的建筑业主进行精准补贴。     

基于最小碳排放的广义TSP模型研究

以货车由公司仓库向各个销售节点送货这一典型的物流过程为研究对象.建立基于最小碳排放的广义TSP模型,并利用动态规划求解.模型综合考虑了货车行驶路程、运输途中载货量及CO_2排放量,并将货车装载量与CO_2排放量的函数关系体现在目标函数中,与只考虑行驶路程的传统模型相比更具实用性.最后用算例进行了验证,并与传统方法作了比较.