Information Theoretic Causality Detection between Financial and Sentiment Data

The interaction between the flow of sentiment expressed on blogs and media and the dynamics of the stock market prices are analyzed through an information-theoretic measure, the transfer entropy, to quantify causality relations. We analyzed daily stock price and daily social media sentiment for the top 50 companies in the Standard & Poor (S&P) index during the period from November 2018 to November 2020. We also analyzed news mentioning these companies during the same period. We found that there is a causal flux of information that links those companies. The largest fraction of significant causal links is between prices and between sentiments, but there is also significant causal information which goes both ways from sentiment to prices and from prices to sentiment. We observe that the strongest causal signal between sentiment and prices is associated with the Tech sector.     

Change Point Test for the Conditional Mean of Time Series of Counts Based on Support Vector Regression

This study considers support vector regression (SVR) and twin SVR (TSVR) for the time series of counts, wherein the hyper parameters are tuned using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. For prediction, we employ the framework of integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH) models. As an application, we consider change point problems, using the cumulative sum (CUSUM) test based on the residuals obtained from the PSO-SVR and PSO-TSVR methods. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation experiments to illustrate the methods’ validity with various linear and nonlinear INGARCH models. Subsequently, a real data analysis, with the return times of extreme events constructed based on the daily log-returns of Goldman Sachs stock prices, is conducted to exhibit its scope of application.     

Distinguishing manipulated stocks via trading network analysis

Manipulation is an important issue for both developed and emerging stock markets. For the study of manipulation, it is critical to analyze investor behavior in the stock market. In this paper, an analysis of the full transaction records of over a hundred stocks in a one-year period is conducted. For each stock, a trading network is constructed to characterize the relations among its investors. In trading networks, nodes represent investors and a directed link connects a stock seller to a buyer with the total trade size as the weight of the link, and the node strength is the sum of all edge weights of a node. For all these trading networks, we find that the node degree and node strength both have tails following a power-law distribution. Compared with non-manipulated stocks, manipulated stocks have a high lower bound of the power-law tail, a high average degree of the trading network and a low correlation between the price return and the seller-buyer ratio. These findings may help us to detect manipulated stocks.     

A Network Approach to the Study of the Dynamics of Risk Spillover in China’s Bond Market

Since 2018, the bond market has surpassed the stock market, becoming the biggest investment area in China’s security market, and the systemic risks of China’s bond market are of non-negligible importance. Based on daily interest rate data of representative bond categories, this study conducted a dynamic analysis based on generalized vector autoregressive volatility spillover variance decomposition, constructed a complex network, and adopted the minimum spanning tree method to clarify and analyze the risk propagation path between different bond types. It is found that the importance of each bond type is positively correlated with liquidity, transaction volume, and credit rating, and the inter-bank market is the most important market in the entire bond market, while interest rate bonds, bank bonds and urban investment bonds are important varieties with great systemic importance. In addition, the long-term trend of the dynamic spillover index of China’s bond market falls in line with the pace of the interest rate adjustments. To hold the bottom line of preventing financial systemic risks of China’s bond market, standard management, strict supervision, and timely regulation of the bond markets are required, and the structural entropy, as a useful indicator, also should be used in the risk management and monitoring.     

Distributed Deep Fusion Predictor for a Multi-Sensor System Based on Causality Entropy

Trend prediction based on sensor data in a multi-sensor system is an important topic. As the number of sensors increases, we can measure and store more and more data. However, the increase in data has not effectively improved prediction performance. This paper focuses on this problem and presents a distributed predictor that can overcome unrelated data and sensor noise: First, we define the causality entropy to calculate the measurement’s causality. Then, the series causality coefficient (SCC) is proposed to select the high causal measurement as the input data. To overcome the traditional deep learning network’s over-fitting to the sensor noise, the Bayesian method is used to obtain the weight distribution characteristics of the sub-predictor network. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) is constructed as the fusion layer to fuse the results from different sub-predictors. The experiments were implemented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method by meteorological data from Beijing. The results show that the proposed predictor can effectively model the multi-sensor system’s big measurement data to improve prediction performance.     

Application of Euler Neural Networks with Soft Computing Paradigm to Solve Nonlinear Problems Arising in Heat Transfer

In this study, a novel application of neurocomputing technique is presented for solving nonlinear heat transfer and natural convection porous fin problems arising in almost all areas of engineering and technology, especially in mechanical engineering. The mathematical models of the problems are exploited by the intelligent strength of Euler polynomials based Euler neural networks (ENN’s), optimized with a generalized normal distribution optimization (GNDO) algorithm and Interior point algorithm (IPA). In this scheme, ENN’s based differential equation models are constructed in an unsupervised manner, in which the neurons are trained by GNDO as an effective global search technique and IPA, which enhances the local search convergence. Moreover, a temperature distribution of heat transfer and natural convection porous fin are investigated by using an ENN-GNDO-IPA algorithm under the influence of variations in specific heat, thermal conductivity, internal heat generation, and heat transfer rate, respectively. A large number of executions are performed on the proposed technique for different cases to determine the reliability and effectiveness through various performance indicators including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), error in Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Thiel’s inequality coefficient (TIC). Extensive graphical and statistical analysis shows the dominance of the proposed algorithm with state-of-the-art algorithms and numerical solver RK-4.     

Spectral Ranking of Causal Influence in Complex Systems

Similar to natural complex systems, such as the Earth’s climate or a living cell, semiconductor lithography systems are characterized by nonlinear dynamics across more than a dozen orders of magnitude in space and time. Thousands of sensors measure relevant process variables at appropriate sampling rates, to provide time series as primary sources for system diagnostics. However, high-dimensionality, non-linearity and non-stationarity of the data are major challenges to efficiently, yet accurately, diagnose rare or new system issues by merely using model-based approaches. To reliably narrow down the causal search space, we validate a ranking algorithm that applies transfer entropy for bivariate interaction analysis of a system’s multivariate time series to obtain a weighted directed graph, and graph eigenvector centrality to identify the system’s most important sources of original information or causal influence. The results suggest that this approach robustly identifies the true drivers or causes of a complex system’s deviant behavior, even when its reconstructed information transfer network includes redundant edges.     

Deterministic factors of stock networks based on cross-correlation in financial market

The stock market has been known to form homogeneous stock groups with a higher correlation among different stocks according to common economic factors that influence individual stocks. We investigate the role of common economic factors in the market in the formation of stock networks, using the arbitrage pricing model reflecting essential properties of common economic factors. We find that the degree of consistency between real and model stock networks increases as additional common economic factors are incorporated into our model. Furthermore, we find that individual stocks with a large number of links to other stocks in a network are more highly correlated with common economic factors than those with a small number of links. This suggests that common economic factors in the stock market can be understood in terms of deterministic factors.     

Inferring Users’ Social Roles with a Multi-Level Graph Neural Network Model

Users of social networks have a variety of social statuses and roles. For example, the users of Weibo include celebrities, government officials, and social organizations. At the same time, these users may be senior managers, middle managers, or workers in companies. Previous studies on this topic have mainly focused on using the categorical, textual and topological data of a social network to predict users’ social statuses and roles. However, this cannot fully reflect the overall characteristics of users’ social statuses and roles in a social network. In this paper, we consider what social network structures reflect users’ social statuses and roles since social networks are designed to connect people. Taking an Enron email dataset as an example, we analyzed a preprocessing mechanism used for social network datasets that can extract users’ dynamic behavior features. We further designed a novel social network representation learning algorithm in order to infer users’ social statuses and roles in social networks through the use of an attention and gate mechanism on users’ neighbors. The extensive experimental results gained from four publicly available datasets indicate that our solution achieves an average accuracy improvement of 2% compared with GraphSAGE-Mean, which is the best applicable inductive representation learning method.     

A Novel Time-Sensitive Composite Similarity Model for Multivariate Time-Series Correlation Analysis

Finding the correlation between stocks is an effective method for screening and adjusting investment portfolios for investors. One single temporal feature or static nontemporal features are generally used in most studies to measure the similarity between stocks. However, these features are not sufficient to explore phenomena such as price fluctuations similar in shape but unequal in length which may be caused by multiple temporal features. To research stock price volatilities entirely, mining the correlation between stocks should be considered from the point view of multiple features described as time series, including closing price, etc. In this paper, a time-sensitive composite similarity model designed for multivariate time-series correlation analysis based on dynamic time warping is proposed. First, a stock is chosen as the benchmark, and the multivariate time series are segmented by the peaks and troughs time-series segmentation (PTS) algorithm. Second, similar stocks are screened out by similarity. Finally, the rate of rising or falling together between stock pairs is used to verify the proposed model’s effectiveness. Compared with other models, the composite similarity model brings in multiple temporal features and is generalizable for numerical multivariate time series in different fields. The results show that the proposed model is very promising.     

The Information Conveyed in a SPAC′s Offering

The popularity of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) has grown dramatically in recent years as a substitute for the traditional IPO (Initial Public Offer). We modeled the average annual return for SPAC investors and found that this financial tool produced an annual return of 17.3%. We then constructed an information model that examined a SPAC′s excess returns during the 60 days after a potential merger or acquisition had been announced. We found that the announcement had a major impact on the SPAC’s share price over the 60 days, delivering on average 0.69% daily excess returns over the IPO portfolio and 31.6% cumulative excess returns for the entire period. Relative to IPOs, the cumulative excess returns of SPACs rose dramatically in the next few days after the potential merger or acquisition announcement until the 26th day. They then declined but rose again until the 48th day after the announcement. Finally, the SPAC’s structure reduced the investors’ risk. Thus, if investors buy a SPAC stock immediately after a potential merger or acquisition has been announced and hold it for 48 days, they can reap substantial short-term returns.     

Joint UAVs’ Load Balancing and UEs’ Data Rate Fairness Optimization by Diffusion UAV Deployment Algorithm in Multi-UAV Networks

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be deployed as base stations (BSs) for emergency communications of user equipments (UEs) in 5G/6G networks. In multi-UAV communication networks, UAVs’ load balancing and UEs’ data rate fairness are two challenging problems and can be optimized by UAV deployment strategies. In this work, we found that these two problems are related by the same performance metric, which makes it possible to optimize the two problems simultaneously. To solve this joint optimization problem, we propose a UAV diffusion deployment algorithm based on the virtual force field method. Firstly, according to the unique performance metric, we define two new virtual forces, which are the UAV-UAV force and UE-UAV force defined by FU and FV, respectively. FV is the main contributor to load balancing and UEs’ data rate fairness, and FU contributes to fine tuning the UEs’ data rate fairness performance. Secondly, we propose a diffusion control stratedy to the update UAV-UAV force, which optimizes FV in a distributed manner. In this diffusion strategy, each UAV optimizes the local parameter by exchanging information with neighbor UAVs, which achieve global load balancing in a distributed manner. Thirdly, we adopt the successive convex optimization method to update FU, which is a non-convex problem. The resultant force of FV and FU is used to control the UAVs’ motion. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the baseline algorithm on UAVs’ load balancing and UEs’ data rate fairness.     

Crowded Trades,Market Clustering,and Price Instability

Crowded trades by similarly trading peers influence the dynamics of asset prices, possibly creating systemic risk. We propose a market clustering measure using granular trading data. For each stock, the clustering measure captures the degree of trading overlap among any two investors in that stock, based on a comparison with the expected crowding in a null model where trades are maximally random while still respecting the empirical heterogeneity of both stocks and investors. We investigate the effect of crowded trades on stock price stability and present evidence that market clustering has a causal effect on the properties of the tails of the stock return distribution, particularly the positive tail, even after controlling for commonly considered risk drivers. Reduced investor pool diversity could thus negatively affect stock price stability.     

Characterizing and modeling an electoral campaign in the context of Twitter: 2011 Spanish Presidential election as a case study

Transmitting messages in the most efficient way as possible has always been one of politicians' main concerns during electoral processes. Due to the rapidly growing number of users, online social networks have become ideal platforms for politicians to interact with their potential voters. Exploiting the available potential of these tools to maximize their influence over voters is one of politicians' actual challenges. To step in this direction, we have analyzed the user activity in the online social network Twitter, during the 2011 Spanish Presidential electoral process, and found that such activity is correlated with the election results. We introduce a new measure to study political sentiment in Twitter, which we call the relative support. We have also characterized user behavior by analyzing the structural and dynamical patterns of the complex networks emergent from the mention and retweet networks. Our results suggest that the collective attention is driven by a very small fraction of users. Furthermore, we have analyzed the interactions taking place among politicians, observing a lack of debate. Finally, we develop a network growth model to reproduce the interactions taking place among politicians.     

The structure and resilience of financial market networks

Financial markets can be viewed as a highly complex evolving system that is very sensitive to economic instabilities. The complex organization of the market can be represented in a suitable fashion in terms of complex networks, which can be constructed from stock prices such that each pair of stocks is connected by a weighted edge that encodes the distance between them. In this work, we propose an approach to analyze the topological and dynamic evolution of financial networks based on the stock correlation matrices. An entropy-related measurement is adopted to quantify the robustness of the evolving financial market organization. It is verified that the network topological organization suffers strong variation during financial instabilities and the networks in such periods become less robust. A statistical robust regression model is proposed to quantity the relationship between the network structure and resilience. The obtained coefficients of such model indicate that the average shortest path length is the measurement most related to network resilience coefficient. This result indicates that a collective behavior is observed between stocks during financial crisis. More specifically, stocks tend to synchronize their price evolution, leading to a high correlation between pair of stock prices, which contributes to the increase in distance between them and, consequently, decrease the network resilience.     

Getting Ahead of the Arms Race: Hothousing the Coevolution of VirusTotal with a Packer

Malware detection is in a coevolutionary arms race where the attackers and defenders are constantly seeking advantage. This arms race is asymmetric: detection is harder and more expensive than evasion. White hats must be conservative to avoid false positives when searching for malicious behaviour. We seek to redress this imbalance. Most of the time, black hats need only make incremental changes to evade them. On occasion, white hats make a disruptive move and find a new technique that forces black hats to work harder. Examples include system calls, signatures and machine learning. We present a method, called Hothouse, that combines simulation and search to accelerate the white hat’s ability to counter the black hat’s incremental moves, thereby forcing black hats to perform disruptive moves more often. To realise Hothouse, we evolve EEE, an entropy-based polymorphic packer for Windows executables. Playing the role of a black hat, EEE uses evolutionary computation to disrupt the creation of malware signatures. We enter EEE into the detection arms race with VirusTotal, the most prominent cloud service for running anti-virus tools on software. During our 6 month study, we continually improved EEE in response to VirusTotal, eventually learning a packer that produces packed malware whose evasiveness goes from an initial 51.8% median to 19.6%. We report both how well VirusTotal learns to detect EEE-packed binaries and how well VirusTotal forgets in order to reduce false positives. VirusTotal’s tools learn and forget fast, actually in about 3 days. We also show where VirusTotal focuses its detection efforts, by analysing EEE’s variants.     

Random matrix theory analysis of cross-correlations in the US stock market: Evidence from Pearson’s correlation coefficient and detrended cross-correlation coefficient

In this study, we first build two empirical cross-correlation matrices in the US stock market by two different methods, namely the Pearson’s correlation coefficient and the detrended cross-correlation coefficient (DCCA coefficient). Then, combining the two matrices with the method of random matrix theory (RMT), we mainly investigate the statistical properties of cross-correlations in the US stock market. We choose the daily closing prices of 462 constituent stocks of S&P 500 index as the research objects and select the sample data from January 3, 2005 to August 31, 2012. In the empirical analysis, we examine the statistical properties of cross-correlation coefficients, the distribution of eigenvalues, the distribution of eigenvector components, and the inverse participation ratio. From the two methods, we find some new results of the cross-correlations in the US stock market in our study, which are different from the conclusions reached by previous studies. The empirical cross-correlation matrices constructed by the DCCA coefficient show several interesting properties at different time scales in the US stock market, which are useful to the risk management and optimal portfolio selection, especially to the diversity of the asset portfolio. It will be an interesting and meaningful work to find the theoretical eigenvalue distribution of a completely random matrix R for the DCCA coefficient because it does not obey the Mar?enko–Pastur distribution.     

Sentiment Analysis of Persian Movie Reviews Using Deep Learning

Sentiment analysis aims to automatically classify the subject’s sentiment (e.g., positive, negative, or neutral) towards a particular aspect such as a topic, product, movie, news, etc. Deep learning has recently emerged as a powerful machine learning technique to tackle the growing demand for accurate sentiment analysis. However, the majority of research efforts are devoted to English-language only, while information of great importance is also available in other languages. This paper presents a novel, context-aware, deep-learning-driven, Persian sentiment analysis approach. Specifically, the proposed deep-learning-driven automated feature-engineering approach classifies Persian movie reviews as having positive or negative sentiments. Two deep learning algorithms, convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long-short-term memory (LSTM), are applied and compared with our previously proposed manual-feature-engineering-driven, SVM-based approach. Simulation results demonstrate that LSTM obtained a better performance as compared to multilayer perceptron (MLP), autoencoder, support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression and CNN algorithms.     

The Stock Market Model with Delayed Information Impact from a Socioeconomic View

Finding the critical factor and possible “Newton’s laws” in financial markets has been an important issue. However, with the development of information and communication technologies, financial models are becoming more realistic but complex, contradicting the objective law “Greatest truths are the simplest.” Therefore, this paper presents an evolutionary model independent of micro features and attempts to discover the most critical factor. In the model, information is the only critical factor, and stock price is the emergence of collective behavior. The statistical properties of the model are significantly similar to the real market. It also explains the correlations of stocks within an industry, which provides a new idea for studying critical factors and core structures in the financial markets.     

Large-scale data analysis using the Wigner function

Large-scale data are analysed using the Wigner function. It is shown that the ‘frequency variable’ provides important information, which is lost with other techniques. The method is applied to ‘sentiment analysis’ in data from social networks and also to financial data.