线性模型中的一类随机约束$s$--$K$估计

In this paper, we propose a stochastic restricted s–K estimator in the linear model with additional stochastic linear restrictions by combining the ordinary mixed estimator(OME) with the s–K estimator. It is shown that the proposed estimator is superior to the OME and the s–K estimator under the mean squared error matrix criterion under some conditions. Finally, a numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are given to verify the theoretical results.     

Jump-preserving surface reconstruction from noisy data

A new local smoothing procedure is suggested for jump-preserving surface reconstruction from noisy data. In a neighborhood of a given point in the design space, a plane is fitted by local linear kernel smoothing, giving the conventional local linear kernel estimator of the surface at the point. The neighborhood is then divided into two parts by a line passing through the given point and perpendicular to the gradient direction of the fitted plane. In the two parts, two half planes are fitted, respectively, by local linear kernel smoothing, providing two one-sided estimators of the surface at the given point. Our surface reconstruction procedure then proceeds in the following two steps. First, the fitted surface is defined by one of the three estimators, i.e., the conventional estimator and the two one-sided estimators, depending on the weighted residual means of squares of the fitted planes. The fitted surface of this step preserves the jumps well, but it is a bit noisy, compared to the conventional local linear kernel estimator. Second, the estimated surface values at the original design points obtained in the first step are used as new data, and the above procedure is applied to this data in the same way except that one of the three estimators is selected based on their estimated variances. Theoretical justification and numerical examples show that the fitted surface of the second step preserves jumps well and also removes noise efficiently. Besides two window widths, this procedure does not introduce other parameters. Its surface estimator has an explicit formula. All these features make it convenient to use and simple to compute.     

Asymptotic Expansion of M ‐Estimator Over Wiener Space

In this paper we consider an Mestimator defined as a solution of a given estimating function. Sufficient conditions of existence of an Mestimator and its stochastic expansion are presented. In the case where the underlying probability space is a Wiener space and the leading term of the stochastic expansion is a martingale, asymptotic expansions of its distribution function are obtained with the aid of Malliavin calculus. Applications to a stationary ergodic diffusion model are also discussed.     

Robust distributed state estimation for genetic regulatory networks with markovian jumping parameters

In this paper, the robust distributed state estimation problem is dealt with for the delayed genetic regulatory networks (GRNs) with SUM logic and multiple sensors. The system parameters are time-varying, norm-bounded, and controlled by a Markov Chain. Time delays here are assumed to be time-varying and belong to the given intervals. The genetic regulatory functions are supposed to satisfy the sector-like condition. We aim to design a distributed state estimator which approximates the genetic states through the measurements of the sensors, i.e., the estimation error system is robustly asymptotically stable in the mean square. Based on the Lyapunov functional method and the stochastic analysis technique, it is shown that if a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) are feasible, the desired distributed state estimator does exist. A numerical example is constructed in the end of the paper to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained criteria.     

配对数据条件得分函数:Mantel-Haenszel估计量推广

提出配对数据条件得分函数,用其推广Mantel-Haenszel估计量;给出指数分布族模型下推广的Mantel-Haenszel型估计量表达式或估计方程,解释估计量具有稳健性的原因,并给出应用实例。     

State estimation for Markovian jumping genetic regulatory networks with random delays

In this paper, the state estimation problem is investigated for stochastic genetic regulatory networks (GRNs) with random delays and Markovian jumping parameters. The delay considered is assumed to be satisfying a certain stochastic characteristic. Meantime, the delays of GRNs are described by a binary switching sequence satisfying a conditional probability distribution. The aim of this paper is to design a state estimator to estimate the true states of the considered GRNs through the available output measurements. By using Lyapunov functional and some stochastic analysis techniques, the stability criteria of the estimation error systems are obtained in the form of linear matrix inequalities under which the estimation error dynamics is globally asymptotically stable. Then, the explicit expression of the desired estimator is shown. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.     

An adaptive discretization algorithm for the weak approximation of stochastic differential equations

Numerical methods with fixed step size have limitations if they are applied for example to stiff stochastic differential equations where the step size is forced to be very small. In this paper, an adaptive step size control algorithm for the weak approximation of stochastic differential equations is introduced. The proposed algorithm calculates an estimation of the local error in order to determine the optimal step size such that the local error is bounded by some given tolerances. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Estimation of intrinsic growth factors in a class of stochastic population model

This article discusses the problem of parameter estimation with nonlinear mean-reversion type stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Brownian motion for population growth model. The estimator in the population model is the climate effects, population policy and environmental circumstances which affect the intrinsic rate of growth r. The consistency and asymptotic distribution of the estimator θ is studied in our general setting. In the calculation method, unlike previous study, since the nonlinear feature of the model, it is difficult to obtain an explicit formula for the estimator. To solve this, some criteria are used to derive an asymptotically consistent estimator. Furthermore Girsanov transformation is used to simplify the equations, which then gives rise to the corresponding convergence of the estimator being with respect to a family of probability measures indexed by the dispersion parameter, while in the literature the existing results have dealt with convergence with respect to a given probability measure.     

随机结构系统基于可靠性的优化设计

提出了以梁板（薄板）为基体的随机结构系统（即结构元件的面积、长度、弹性模量和强度等均为随机变量）在随机载荷作用下,基于可靠性的优化设计方法．给出了随机结构系统安全余量和系统可靠性指标的敏度表达式;给出最佳矢量型算法．首先是用改进的一次二阶矩和随机有限元法求出安全余量的可靠性指标的表达式,然后用概率网络估算(PNET)法求出系统失效概率的公式,对该式两边求导得出了系统可靠性指标的敏度表达式,进而用最佳矢量型算法进行优化设计．在优化迭代过程中,采用梯度步和最佳矢量步相结合的方法进行计算．最后给出了一个算例,说明该方法计算效率高,收敛稳定,适合工程应用．     

变系数部分线性模型的加权随机约束s-K估计

研究随机约束条件下半参数变系数部分线性模型的参数估计问题,当回归模型线性部分变量存在多重共线性时,基于Profile最小二乘方法、s-K估计和加权混合估计构造参数向量的加权随机约束s-K估计,并在均方误差矩阵准则下给出新估计量优于s-K估计和加权混合估计的充要条件,最后通过蒙特卡洛数值模拟验证所提出估计量的有限样本性质.     

On the Gerber-Shiu Function and Optimal Dividend Strategy for a Thinning Risk Model

In this paper, the risk model under constant dividend barrier strategy is studied, in which the premium income follows a compound Poisson process and the arrival of the claims is a p-thinning process of the premium arrival process. The integral equations with boundary conditions for the expected discounted aggregate dividend payments and the expected discounted penalty function until ruin are derived. In addition, the explicit expressions for the Laplace transform of the ruin time and the expected aggregate discounted dividend payments until ruin are given when the individual stochastic premium amount and claim amount are exponentially distributed. Finally, the optimal barrier is presented under the condition of maximizing the expectation of the difference between discounted aggregate dividends until ruin and the deficit at ruin.     

Estimating parameters in diffusion processes using an approximate maximum likelihood approach

We present an approximate Maximum Likelihood estimator for univariate Itô stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion, based on numerical calculation of the likelihood function. The transition probability density of a stochastic differential equation is given by the Kolmogorov forward equation, known as the Fokker-Planck equation. This partial differential equation can only be solved analytically for a limited number of models, which is the reason for applying numerical methods based on higher order finite differences.The approximate likelihood converges to the true likelihood, both theoretically and in our simulations, implying that the estimator has many nice properties. The estimator is evaluated on simulated data from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model and a non-linear extension of the Chan-Karolyi-Longstaff-Sanders model. The estimates are similar to the Maximum Likelihood estimates when these can be calculated and converge to the true Maximum Likelihood estimates as the accuracy of the numerical scheme is increased. The estimator is also compared to two benchmarks; a simulation-based estimator and a Crank-Nicholson scheme applied to the Fokker-Planck equation, and the proposed estimator is still competitive.     

Robust to noise and outliers estimator of correlation dimension

The estimation of correlation dimension of continuous and discreet deterministic chaotic processes corrupted by an additive noise and outliers observations is investigated. In this paper we propose a new estimator of correlation dimension based on similarity between the evolution of Gaussian kernel correlation sum (Gkcs) and that of modified Boltzmann sigmoidal function (mBsf), this estimator is given by the maximum value of the first derivative of logarithmic transform of Gkcs against logarithmic transform of bandwidth, so the proposed estimator is independent of the choice of regression region like other regression estimators of correlation dimension. Simulation study indicates the robustness of proposed estimator to the presence of different types of noise such us independent Gaussian noise, non independent Gaussian noise and uniform noise for high noise level, moreover, this estimator is also robust to presence of 60% of outliers observations. Application of this new estimator with determination of their confidence interval using the moving block bootstrap method to adjusted closed price of S&P500 index daily time series revels the stochastic behavior of such financial time series.     

一般半相依回归系统的协方差改进估计

本文讨论了由两个等阶的回归方程组成的半相依系统,运用协方差改进法获得了参数的一个迭代估计序列,并证明了它的协方差阵已知时,处处收敛到最佳线性无偏估计,同时其协方差阵在矩阵偏序意义下单调性,并且给出了当迭代次数亦趋于无穷时,保证其具有相合性的一个条件。     

An L(a)-stable fourth order Rosenbrock method with error estimator

The computation of stiff systems of ordinary differential equations requires highly stable processes, and this led to the development of L-stable Rosenbrock methods, sometimes called generalized Runge-Kutta or semi-implicit Runge-Kutta methods. They are linearly implicit, and require one Jacobian evaluation and at least one matrix factorization per step. In this paper we develop some results regarding minimum process configuration (i.e. minimum work per step for a given order). As a consequence we then develop an efficient L(a)-stable (a = 89°) fourth order process (fifth order locally), with a reference formula error estimator similar to that of Fehlberg and England.     

Lundberg’s risk process with tax

In this paper we extend the classical Cramér–Lundberg risk model by including tax payments. The considered tax rule is to pay a certain proportion of the premium income, whenever the portfolio is in a profitable situation. It is shown that the resulting survival probability is a power of the survival probability without tax. Furthermore, an explicit expression for the expected discounted total sum of tax payments until ruin according to this taxation rule is derived and the optimal starting level for taxation is determined. Finally, numerical illustrations of the results are given for the case of exponential claim amounts.     

A note on wavelet density deconvolution for weakly dependent data

In this paper we investigate the performance of a linear wavelet-type deconvolution estimator for weakly dependent data. We show that the rates of convergence which are optimal in the case of i.i.d. data are also (almost) attained for strongly mixing observations, provided the mixing coefficients decay fast enough. The results are applied to a discretely observed continuous-time stochastic volatility model.     

Reliable and efficient error control for an adaptive Galerkin-characteristic method for convection-dominated diffusion problems

An efficient and reliable a-posteriori error estimator is developed for a characteristic-Galerkin finite element method for time-dependent convection-dominated problems. An adaptive algorithm with variable time and space steps is proposed and studied. At each time step in this algorithm grid coarsening occurs solely at the final iteration of the adaptive procedure, meaning that only time and space refinement is allowed before the final iteration. It is proved that at each time step this adaptive algorithm is capable of reducing errors below a given tolerance in a finite number of iteration steps. Numerical results are presented to check the theoretical analysis.     

A step size control algorithm for the weak approximation of stochastic differential equations

A vriable step size control algorithm for the weak approximation of stochastic differential equations is introduced. The algorithm is based on embedded Runge–Kutta methods which yield two approximations of different orders with a negligible additional computational effort. The difference of these two approximations is used as an estimator for the local error of the less precise approximation. Some numerical results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the introduced step size control method.      

奇异随机偏微分方程中参数MLE的渐近性质

对一类带有未知参数和小干扰项的奇异随机偏微分方程,基于连续样本轨道,给出了参数的极大似然估计,证明了当干扰项趋于0时,参数估计量的强相合性和渐近正态性.