战略性新兴产业发展的金融支持研究

处于产业发展初期的战略性新兴产业,融资能力有限,如何融资成为影响其发展的关键性问题.战略性新兴产业的快速发展需要金融支持,银行贷款和证券融资是支持战略性新兴产业资金需求的主要方面.为此选取股票融资指标和银行贷款指标,借助面板数据模型,对金融支持我国七个战略性新兴产业的融资机制以及融资效率进行分析.     

基于灰色模型的河北省战略性新兴产业产值预测研究

战略性新兴产业已成为我国提升经济质量的重要力量,河北省高度重视战略性新兴产业的发展工作.本文采用GM(1,1)模型对河北省未来五年战略性新兴产业的产值进行预测,预测结果整体呈现逐年上涨趋势,但新能源产业中的通用设备制造业及节能环保产业中的废弃资源综合利用业增长速度缓慢,新材料产业中的有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、高端装备制造产业中的专用设备制造业、节能环保产业中的电力、热力的生产和供应业三个行业产值出现下降趋势.可见,个别行业存在成长动力不足的问题,会阻碍河北省战略性新兴产业整体的健康成长.依据预测结果,从政府、人才、创新角度分析动力因素推动战略新兴产业的高质量发展.     

政府干预与资源配置:传统产业和战略性新兴产业的对比

鉴于传统产业和战略性新兴产业所受政府干预程度不同,本文对比分析了政府干预导致两个产业资源配置扭曲的作用机理.实证分析以钢铁产业(传统产业)和光伏产业(战略性新兴产业)为例,利用2007-2015年沪深两市上市公司数据,量化测算了土地供给价格扭曲、财政补贴和预算软约束这三个因素对资源配置效率的影响程度.结果表明:钢铁产业和光伏产业均受到政府不同程度的干预,光伏产业中土地供给价格扭曲和财政补贴程度明显高于钢铁产业;土地供给价格扭曲、财政补贴、预算软约束显著降低了钢铁产业和光伏产业的资源配置效率;政府干预程度越大资源配置效率越低,因此光伏产业的资源配置扭曲现象比钢铁产业更严重.     

战略性新兴产业创新金融支持机理及两阶段演化博弈分析

为了研究金融支持如何影响战略性新兴产业创新主体培育的问题,在剖析金融支持主体间双螺旋耦合机理基础上,构建了战略性新兴产业金融支持两阶段演化博弈模型,运用动态系统的相平面理论求取两阶段ESS近似解析解,并借助MATLAB实现两阶段演化博弈模型的数值仿真,分析不同参数赋值对两阶段ESS演进的影响。研究发现:(1)存在机会主义(补贴创新利润率T₁<创新外活动利润率T₂)和非机会主义行为(k>T₂)两种对立占优情境;(2)机会主义行为(或非机会主义)占优情境下,金融支持主体的期望社会效用越小(或越大)、适度减小(或增加)补贴金额,越有利于提升战略性新兴产业创新主体接受补贴的积极性;(3)战略性新兴产业创新主体的自有资金R对其积极性影响不大,而补贴资金利率a越稳定越有利于提高其积极性。基于上述结论,本文最后构建了战略性新兴产业金融支持两阶段ESS演进实现框架,并探究其“累积式”、“悖论式”、“累积—悖论式”递进功能路径,为政府制定提升创新主体培育金融支持效率的相关政策提供了理论支持。     

基于灰色关联分析的战略性新兴产业评价——以生物医药为例

以灰色理论分析为基础,建立了符合我国生物医药这一战略性新兴产业特点的评价指标体系和评价模型,并以吉林通化医药城、上海张江“药谷”、湖南浏阳生物医药园产业群为研究对象,作了实证分析．     

基于相对熵和可变模糊集理论的战略性新兴产业企业信用评价

针对现有模糊评价方法缺乏动态可变性的不足,将可变模糊集理论引入到战略性新兴产业企业信用评价中;同时,考虑到主观赋权法与客观赋权法各有优缺点,采用基于相对熵的组合赋权法确定指标权重,从而构建了基于相对熵和可变模糊集理论的战略性新兴产业企业信用评价模型.模型克服了现有模糊评价方法的不足,较好的兼顾了赋权的主观偏好和客观信息,提高了信用评价结果的可信度、可靠性与稳健性.以20家战略性新兴产业上市公司为样本,实证分析结果说明了模型的可行性和适用性.     

战略性新兴产业创新效率实证研究——基于DEA方法的分析

采用DEA方法,以辽宁省数据为切入点,以新产品销售收入度量短期创新产出,专利申请数度量长期创新产出,首先测算辽宁省2000-2011年战略新兴产业五个细分行业短期与长期创新效率;然后采用一元线性回归分析,研究模仿创新和自主创新方式对创新效率的影响.结果显示五个行业长期和短期的创新效率均呈现逐步上升趋势,发展态势良好,且仍有上升空间;模仿创新和自主创新方式对创新效率均有不同程度的显著影响,坚持模仿创新和自主创新相结合的方式,能有效提高产业创新效率.     

中国汽车制造业的整体发展状况及主要省市的产业发展态势

汽车制造业逐渐发展成为中国经济的支柱产业,成为中国不少地区最具活力的区域产业经济增长点.以"中国汽车制造业的整体发展状况"和"国内主要省市汽车制造业的产业发展态势"为研究内容,概括和综述中国汽车制造业的发展动态,并以此为基础观察和分析中国汽车制造业的产业发展,包括中国汽车制造业产业总体发展状况、汽车产业的区域产能分布、汽车产业区域布局的演化格局、主要省市的汽车制造业发展状况.     

基于VAR模型的山东省产业发展系统评价

以山东省为例,以创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展理念为指导,构建产业发展多指标评价体系,测算改革开放以来山东省产业发展演变情况,运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应及方差分解分析产业发展的内在机制,结果表明:(1)山东省产业发展水平不断提高,经历了初期震荡缓慢增长、中期高速增长和后期持续增长.(2)产业发展系统结构逐渐优化,呈现出产业规模、结构、效益、创新、协调及绿色为一体的产业综合发展态势,目前主要面临提升效益和发展外向型产业的双重压力.(3)从冲击响应结果来看,产业规模及外向型产业对产业综合发展表现为正向效应;产业和谐程度对产业综合发展表现为负向效应;产业效益及产业绿色化对产业综合发展起初表现为正向效应,之后作用不稳定;产业结构和产业科技创新能力对产业综合发展的正向效应存在一定滞后期.(4)预测方差结果表明,子系统对产业综合发展的影响从高到低分别为:产业发展和谐程度,产业发展外向度,产业规模,产业科技创新能力,产业结构,产业绿色发展,产业效益.     

国内外典型计算方法教材的对比分析

计算方法是理工科本科生十分重要的一门专业课程,其教材建设受到普遍关注.本文调研了国内计算方法课程教材的发展和建设现状,并以两本国外经典计算方法教材作为比较对象,从教学内容、教学理念和配套资源建设等方面分析国外教材的成功经验,对自编教材的建设提供了指导意见.     

Productivity breakdown of the information and computing technology industries across countries

In this paper, we measure productivity growth of the information and computing technology (ICT) industries in 14 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries over the 13-year period of 1978–1990. The ICT industries are the providers of essential information technology (IT) capital goods. This macro-level analysis seeks to find out how productively such IT capital goods are provided. The basic unit of analysis employed is the Malmquist Total Factor Productivity (TFP) index. The Malmquist TFP index is then decomposed into three constituent elements accounting for different sources of productivity growth: technological progress, efficiency change, and change in economies of scale. The approach of measurement is based on the concept of distance functions and employs the non-parametric frontier method of data envelopment analysis. Our results indicate that each country's ICT industry manifests its own particular patterns in various performance measures. Among the 14 countries examined, 10 had witnessed productivity growth in their ICT industries. Overall, these ICT industries are found more productive than other industries when compared with previous research. Further analyses reveal that (1) most of the productivity growth measured is due to technological progress; (2) efficiency change exerts a relatively small positive effect on productivity growth; and (3) the change in scale economies unfavourably affects productivity for most countries. Finally, practical implications for formulating IT policy are drawn from our results, and topics are identified for future research.     

Improving port performance in developing countries—A case study

Exchange algorithms are an important class of heuristics for hard combinatorial optimization problems as, e.g., salesman problems or quadratic assignment problems. In Kirkpatrick's and Cerny's exchange algorithms for the travelling salesman problem and placement problem they propose to perform an exchange not only if the objective function value decreases by this exchange, but also in certain cases if the objective function value increases. An exchange increasing the objective function value is performed stochastically depending on the size of the increment.Computational tests with quadratic assignment problems revealed an excellent behaviour in such an approach. Suboptimal solutions differing 1–2% from the best known solutions are obtained by a simple program in short time. By starting this program several times with different starting values all known minimal objective function values were reached. Thus this approach is well suited also for smaller computers and leads in short time to acceptable solutions.     

Predicting the dynamics of prices on the world market

In the article it is proposed to utilize an optimal filtering algorithm with respect to a generalized quadratic quality criterion for evaluating and predicting the dynamics of prices on the world market. A very simple model of a stable market is used as an example.Translated from Dinamicheskie Sistemy, No. 4, pp. 15–20, 1985.     

Oil producing countries and development problems: A case study of the Iranian economy

This paper focuses on the long-run problem facing economies based on exhaustible resources. A planning model is built to examine the intertemporal investment strategies of a typical oil-based economy. The model is applied to Iran as an example of an oil-producing country. The results show clearly that the expansion pressures imposed on Iran during the mid 1970's overheated the economy to the extent that was beyond the control of the economic planners.     

Managing risk in the real world

Exploitation by corporate management of what we know about decision analysis and simulation techniques is not limited by an understanding of the relevant analytical frameworks or the availability of the computer programs necessary for data manipulations. Rather, effectively utilizing the power of these concepts is inhibited by our inability to weave them into the fabric of the real management systems and decision-making processes of the firm.Texts on decision analysis often belabor the unwillingness on the part of management to employ these sophisticated tools. Management, on the other hand, is neither enchanted nor convinced by the ‘black boxes’ (which are perceived as black magic) of the decision analyst. This paper will not argue the merits of where the responsibility lies. Rather, it will present a method for effectively integrating decision and simulation analysis into the real strategic decision-making process that actually exists within the firm. At least, the capability of employing such a method is now under our control; the author argues that if it is effected, then exploitation of these powerful analytical approaches by management can follow.Specifically, we will deal here with the application of decision analysis to the management of risk and return in petroleum exploration. This is in itself an important application of great practical significance. However, the principles illustrated through this example are widely applicable to many other areas. It is especially applicable to areas where risks are great and uncertainties are large. Such areas would include research, the marketing of new products, and proposed large capital projects. Therefore, careful attention will be given to the underlying principles involved, and to the implications of applying these principles in other areas.     

Scheduling of production and logistics operations of steam production systems in food industries: a case study of the tomato processing industry

This study presents an optimization approach by mathematical modelling to support some of the main operational decisions in steam production systems with multiple industrial boilers. Decisions are related to boiler operations scheduling (start-up, warm-up and shutdown time), fuel replenishment (transportation and inventory management) and fuel composition consumed by each piece of equipment. These decisions are often taken based on practical experience of people involved, instead of any decision support tool using optimization techniques; as a consequence, unnecessary costs are likely to be incurred. The optimization approach is based on mixed integer programming and parameters experimental adjustment procedures. A case study of a large tomato processing plant in Brazil was carried out along 1 year using a 3-year database. Owing to the reasonably good outcomes achieved (annually potential savings around 10%), we consider the proposed approach as a suitable tool to support some of the key decisions in boiler scheduling and fuel logistics in steam production systems for tomato processing and other similar industries.