Importance of system components and fault tree events

A new measure of the importance of the components in a coherent system and of the basic events in a fault tree is defined and its properties derived. The importance measure is a useful guide during the system development phase as to which components (or alternatively, which basic events) should receive more urgent attention in achieving system reliability growth. The new measure of component importance has certain desirable properties not possessed by the previous measure of component importance proposed by Birnbaum [6]. The measure is extended to minimal cut sets and to systems of components undergoing repair. A number of commonly occurring systems are treated in detail for illustrative purposes.     

Some properties and applications of cumulative Kullback–Leibler information

The cumulative Kullback–Leibler information has been proposed recently as a suitable extension of Kullback–Leibler information to the cumulative distribution function. In this paper, we obtain various results on such a measure, with reference to its relation with other information measures and notions of reliability theory. We also provide some lower and upper bounds. A dynamic version of the cumulative Kullback–Leibler information is then proposed for past lifetimes. Furthermore, we investigate its monotonicity property, which is related to some new concepts of relative aging. Moreover, we propose an application to the failure of nanocomponents. Finally, in order to provide an application in image analysis, we introduce the empirical cumulative Kullback–Leibler information and prove an asymptotic result. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

蒙特卡罗仿真在船用核动力装置可靠性分析中的应用

如何推断系统的故障概率,是目前可靠性工程领域的一个重要问题.而对具有动态随机性故障的可修系统采用静态近似处理,经常导致计算的可靠性指标与实际情况相差甚远,采用蒙特卡罗方法产生等价于船用核动力系统基本部件故障率的随机数,代入到仿真模型中,经过逻辑运算得到等价于系统故障概率的随机数,对多次仿真得到的数据进行统计推断,便得到系统故障的概率分布及相应的置信区间.此方法计算结果精度高,对船用核动力装置的可靠性分析有重要意义.     

Composite multilinearity,epistemic uncertainty and risk achievement worth

Risk achievement worth is one of the most widely utilized importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the risk metric value attained when a component has failed over the base case value of the risk metric. Traditionally, both the numerator and denominator are point estimates. Relevant literature has shown that inclusion of epistemic uncertainty (i) induces notable variability in the point estimate ranking and (ii) causes the expected value of the risk metric to differ from its nominal value. We investigate the conditions under which the equality of the nominal and expected values of a reliability risk metric holds. We then study how the presence of epistemic uncertainty affects RAW and the associated ranking. We propose an extension of RAW (called ERAW) which allows one to obtain a ranking robust to epistemic uncertainty. We discuss the properties of ERAW and the conditions under which it coincides with RAW. We apply our findings to a probabilistic risk assessment model developed for the safety analysis of NASA lunar space missions.     

A cost-based importance measure for system components: An extension of the Birnbaum importance

In reliability engineering, component importance measures are used to prioritise components in a system for purposes such as reliability improvement and maintenance planning. Existing importance measures have paid little attention to the costs incurred by maintaining a system and its components within a given time period. Cost-effectiveness analysis, however, is critically important in increasingly competitive markets. This paper proposes a new cost-based importance measure which considers costs incurred by maintaining a system and its components within a finite time horizon. Possible extensions are discussed and examples are given to show the use of the new measure.     

A Wiener process model with truncated normal distribution for reliability analysis

The use of degradation model to perform the reliability analysis has drawn much attention due to the fact that the performance of numerous highly reliable systems degrades over time. To describe the unit-to-unit variability for a population of systems, the random effect has been incorporated into the degradation model that plays an important part in assessing the reliability of deteriorating systems. In the existing literature, the normal distribution is commonly adopted to represent the random effect, but the assumption can be unsuitable for some practical applications, such as the degradation process of train wheels. In this paper, we present a degradation modeling and reliability estimation approach by using truncated normal distribution to characterize the unit-to-unit variability. A Wiener process with truncated normal distribution is firstly applied to model the degradation process of the deteriorating system, and the analytical expressions of probability density function and reliability function are derived. Expectation maximization algorithm is then used to estimate the model parameters. The effectiveness and feasibility of the presented approach are illustrated through a numerical example and practical case studies for laser devices and train wheels. The results indicate that the presented approach can obtain better reliability estimation results by considering the truncated normal distribution when the unit-to-unit variability has significant difference.     

Modeling and analysis of system reliability using phase‐type distribution closure properties

Phase‐type distribution closure properties are utilized to devise algorithms for generating reliability functions of systems with basic structures. These structures include series, parallel, K‐out‐of‐N, and standby structures with perfect/imperfect switch. The algorithms form a method for system reliability modeling and analysis based on the relationship between the system lifetime and component lifetimes for general structures. The proposed method is suitable for functional system reliability analysis, which can produce reliability functions of systems with independent components instead of only system reliability values. Once the system reliability function is obtained, other reliability measures such as the system's hazard function and mean time to failure can be obtained efficiently using only matrix algebra. Dimensional and numerical comparisons with computerized symbolic processing are also presented to show the superiority of the proposed method.     

A generalized JM model with applications to imperfect debugging in software reliability

For their nice mathematical properties, state space models have been widely used, especially for forecasting. Over the last decades, the study of tracking software reliability by statistical models has attracted scientists’ attention. However, most of models focus on perfect debugging although practically imperfect debugging arises everywhere. In this paper, a non-Gaussian state space model is modified to predict software failure time with imperfect debugging. In fact, this model is very flexible so that we can modify the system equation in this model to satisfy the various situations. Besides, this model is suitable for tracking software reliability, and applied to two well known datasets on software failures.     

Análise da confiabilidade de estruturas de concreto armado com uma metodologia para inclusão de efeitos estocásticos de propriedades dos materiais

In this paper, special emphasis is given to the inclusion of uncertainties in the evaluation of structural behaviour aiming at a better representation of the system characteristics and the quantification of the importance of these uncertainties in the project. It deals with the structural reliability analysis problem accounting the effect of spatial variability of material properties. To this end it is proposed a finite element model to represent the behaviour of reinforced concrete for short and long-term loads, which includes the main features observed in this material. It was developed a model for the generation of multidimensional non-Gaussian stochastic fields for the material properties that is independent of the finite element mesh. First, an example of a two-dimensional non-Gaussian stochastic field generation in a square steel plate is presented. Latter, the reliability analysis is performed to a limit state function based on prescribed values of mid-span displacements on a simply-supported reinforced beam. Finally, the influence of long-term effects on the reliability of a reinforced concrete beam is studied considering the effect of steel reinforcement corrosion.     

A value-adding approach to reliability under preventive maintenance costs and its applications

No equipment (system) can be perfectly reliable in spite of the utmost care and best efforts on the part of the designer, decision-maker and manufacturer. The two sides of maintenance are corrective and preventive maintenance. It is generally assumed that a preventive maintenance action is less costly than a repair maintenance action. We examine this proposition in detail on the basis of a failure-time model that relates conformance quality to reliability. Illustratively, we present reliability in the context of contracts with asymmetric information. The model shows how to overcome information rents through price distortions and quantity rationing. The paper ends with a conclusion and an outlook to future studies.     

Multiobjective stochastic programming for feed formulation

The minimum cost linear programming model used traditionally for feed formulation does not take account of variability of nutrients in feed ingredients. Therefore, it may be that the nutrient requirements of the animal are not adequately met. In this paper, we show how a multiobjective stochastic model that permits confronting the cost of the ration with the probabilities of meeting the nutrient requirements of the animal can enhance the process of animal diet formulation. The model presented here does not require any a priori information from the decision maker, eliciting his preferences through an interactive process. This is the main advantage in relation to other models found in the literature for treating the problem of nutrient variability, which introduce stochastic constraints in the single objective minimum cost model requiring fixing the level of probability desired for each one of the nutrients in advance.     

Cost–benefit modelling for reliability growth

Decisions during the reliability growth development process of engineering equipment involve trade-offs between cost and risk. However slight, there exists a chance an item of equipment will not function as planned during its specified life. Consequently the producer can incur a financial penalty. To date, reliability growth research has focussed on the development of models to estimate the rate of failure from test data. Such models are used to support decisions about the effectiveness of options to improve reliability. The extension of reliability growth models to incorporate financial costs associated with ‘unreliability’ is much neglected. In this paper, we extend a Bayesian reliability growth model to include cost analysis. The rationale of the stochastic process underpinning the growth model and the cost structures are described. The ways in which this model can be used to support cost–benefit analysis during product development are discussed and illustrated through a simple case.     

A general model for consecutive-k-out-of-n: F repairable system with exponential distribution and (k−1)-step Markov dependence

In this paper, a general model for consecutive-k-out-of-n: F repairable system with exponential distribution and (k−1)-step Markov dependence is introduced. The lifetime of a component is an exponential random variable, its parameter depends on the number of consecutive failed components that precede the component. The repair time is also an exponential random variable. A priority repair rule on the basis of the system failure risk is adopted. Then the transition density matrix of the system is determined. Some reliability indices, including the system availability, rate of occurrence of failures and reliability are evaluated accordingly. For the demonstration of the model and methodology, a linear system example and a circular system example are investigated.     

Statistical software reliability prediction and its applicability based on mean time between failures

One of the most important issues for a development manager may be how to predict the reliability of a software system at an arbitrary testing time. In this paper, using the software failure-occurrence time data, we discuss a method of software reliability prediction based on software reliability growth models described by an NHPP (nonhomogeneous Poisson process). From the applied software reliability growth models, the conditional probability distribution of the time between software failures is derived, and its mean and median are obtained as reliability prediction measures. Finally, based on several numerical examples, we compare the performance between these measures from the view point of software reliability prediction in the testing phase.     

Reliability and covariance estimation of weighted k-out-of-n multi-state systems

In the literature of reliability engineering, reliability of the weighted k-out-of-n system can be calculated using component reliability based on the structure function. The calculation usually assumes that the true component reliability is completely known. However, this is not the case in practical applications. Instead, component reliability has to be estimated using empirical sample data. Uncertainty arises during this estimation process and propagates to the system level. This paper studies the propagation mechanism of estimation uncertainty through the universal generating function method. Equations of the complete solution including the unbiased system reliability estimator and the corresponding unbiased covariance estimator are derived. This is a unified approach. It can be applied to weighted k-out-of-n systems with multi-state components, to weighted k-out-of-n systems with binary components, and to simple series and parallel systems. It may also serve as building blocks to derive estimators of system reliability and uncertainty measures for more complicated systems.     

Stochastic ordering properties for systems with dependent identically distributed components

In this paper, we obtain ordering properties for coherent systems with possibly dependent identically distributed components. These results are based on a representation of the system reliability function as a distorted function of the common component reliability function. So, the results included in this paper can also be applied to general distorted distributions. The main advantage of these results is that they are distribution‐free with respect to the common component distribution. Moreover, they can be applied to systems with component lifetimes having a non‐exchangeable joint distribution. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reliability-based measures and prognostic analysis of a K-out-of-N system in a random environment

In this paper, we study reliability based measures and prognostic problems of a K-out-of-N system in which the failure process of each component depends not only on its intrinsic characteristic but also on its operating environment conditions. The system reliability and the expected remaining useful lifetime are calculated. Under the periodic inspection policy, the system asymptotic availability is derived. We aim at providing explicit expressions for these quantities. The model allows us to incorporate the observation information of the environment in the evaluation of the system performances. Numerical examples show the efficiency and accuracy of our method by comparing with the Monte-Carlo simulations. It is pointed out that the environment condition has significant effect on the system reliability based measures and the system prognostic analysis.     

Nonparametric inference for sequential <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>-out-of-<Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis> systems

The k-out-of-n model is commonly used in reliability theory. In this model the failure of any component of the system does not influence the components still at work. Sequential k-out-of-n systems have been introduced as an extension of k-out-of-n systems where the failure of some component of the system may influence the remaining ones. We consider nonparametric estimation of the cumulative hazard function, the reliability function and the quantile function of sequential k-out-of-n systems. Furthermore, nonparametric hypothesis testing for sequential k-out-of-n-systems is examined. We make use of counting processes to show strong consistency and weak convergence of the estimators and to derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics.     

Diagnostic Plots for Robust Multivariate Methods

Robust techniques for multivariate statistical methods—such as principal component analysis, canonical correlation analysis, and factor analysis—have been recently constructed. In contrast to the classical approach, these robust techniques are able to resist the effect of outliers. However, there does not yet exist a graphical tool to identify in a comprehensive way the data points that do not obey the model assumptions. Our goal is to construct such graphics based on empirical influence functions. These graphics not only detect the influential points but also classify the observations according to their robust distances. In this way the observations are divided into four different classes which are regular points, nonoutlying influential points, influential outliers, and noninfluential outliers. We thus gain additional insight in the data by detecting different types of deviating observations. Some real data examples will be given to show how these plots can be used in practice.     

Homogeneous Customers Renege from Invisible Queues at Random Times under Deteriorating Waiting Conditions

We consider a memoryless first-come first-served queue in which customers' waiting costs are increasing and convex with time. Hence, customers may opt to renege if service has not commenced after waiting for some time. We assume a homogeneous population of customers and we look for their symmetric Nash equilibrium reneging strategy. Besides the model parameters, customers are aware only, if they are in service or not, and they recall for how long they are have been waiting. They are informed of nothing else. We show that under some assumptions on customers' utility function, Nash equilibrium prescribes reneging after random times. We give a closed form expression for the resulting distribution. In particular, its support is an interval (in which it has a density) and it has at most two atoms (at the edges of the interval). Moreover, this equilibrium is unique. Finally, we indicate a case in which Nash equilibrium prescribes a deterministic reneging time.