A state‐dependent Markov‐modulated mechanism for generating events and stochastic models

In this paper, we introduce a versatile block‐structured state‐dependent event (BSDE) approach that provides a methodological tool to construct non‐homogeneous Markov‐modulated stochastic models. Alternatively, the BSDE approach can be used to construct even a part (e.g. the arrival process) of the model. To illustrate the usefulness of the BSDE approach, several arrival patterns as well as queueing and epidemic models are considered. In particular, we deal with a state‐dependent quasi‐birth‐and‐death process that gives a constructive generalization of the scalar birth‐and‐death process and the homogeneous quasi‐birth‐and‐death process. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficient Data Augmentation for Fitting Stochastic Epidemic Models to Prevalence Data

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time evolution of an epidemic gives rise to a complicated latent variable problem in which the state space size of the epidemic grows large as the population size increases. This makes analytically integrating over the missing data infeasible for populations of even moderate size. We present a data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework for Bayesian estimation of stochastic epidemic model parameters, in which measurements are augmented with subject-level disease histories. In our MCMC algorithm, we propose each new subject-level path, conditional on the data, using a time-inhomogenous continuous-time Markov process with rates determined by the infection histories of other individuals. The method is general, and may be applied to a broad class of epidemic models with only minimal modifications to the model dynamics and/or emission distribution. We present our algorithm in the context of multiple stochastic epidemic models in which the data are binomially sampled prevalence counts, and apply our method to data from an outbreak of influenza in a British boarding school. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Stochastic models of HIV epidemic in homosexual populations—the effects of mixing patterns

Extending my previous work [1–3], in this paper I proceed to develop a stochastic model for HIV epidemic in a homosexual population under general conditions. Through computer generated data, I assess various deterministic models as compared with the expected numbers of the stochastic models. It is shown that different mixing patterns have significant impacts on the HIV epidemic except possibly restricted mixing. Thus, in populations with preferred mixing (mixing proportion less than 1) and with proportional mixing, the numbers of S people, L people, I people and A people differ significantly from the corresponding expected numbers of the stochastic models. For the L people, I people and A people, the numbers of the deterministic models first appear to be smaller and later appear to be larger than the corresponding mean numbers of the stochastic models, indicating that while in the short run the deterministic models would underestimate the true numbers, in the long run the deterministic models would overestimate the true numbers.     

Measuring ecological efficiency with data envelopment analysis (DEA)

The measurement of ecological efficiency provides some important information for the companies’ environmental management. Ecological efficiency is usually measured by comparing environmental performance indicators. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) shows a high potential to support such comparisons, as no explicit weights are needed to aggregate the indicators. In general, DEA assumes that inputs and outputs are ‘goods’, but from an ecological perspective also ‘bads’ have to be considered. In the literature, ‘bads’ are treated in different and sometimes arbitrarily chosen ways. This article aims at the systematic derivation of ecologically extended DEA models. Starting from the assumptions of DEA in production theory and activity analysis, a generalisation of basic DEA models is derived by incorporating a multi-dimensional value function f. Extended preference structures can be considered by different specifications of f, e.g. specifications for ecologically motivated applications of DEA.     

随机波动率模型下技术分析指标的一些性质(英文)

一些流行的技术指标(例如布林带,RSI,ROC等)被股市交易者广为使用.交易者将每日(小时,周,……)的实际股价作为计算某个技术指标的样本,通过观察相关频率来指导投资.技术指标的有效性已在广泛的应用中得到了验证.我们已经证明在Black-Scholes模型下,某些技术指标有许多有用的统计性质.作为更一般的情况,随机波动率模型在金融数学中得到了广泛的讨论.本文基于随机波动率模型对技术指标的统计性质进行了研究.研究结果表明,如果股票价格服从随机波动率模型,则技术指标的合理性可以得到有力的证明,从这个角度我们为技术分析奠定理论基础.     

Stochastic nonlinear dynamics of interpersonal and romantic relationships

Current theories from biosocial (e.g., the role of neurotransmitters in behavioral features), ecological (e.g., cultural, political, and institutional conditions), and interpersonal (e.g., attachment) perspectives have grounded interpersonal and romantic relationships in normative social experiences. However, these theories have not been developed to the point of providing a solid theoretical understanding of the dynamics present in interpersonal and romantic relationships, and integrative theories are still lacking. In this paper, mathematical models are used to investigate the dynamics of interpersonal and romantic relationships, via ordinary and stochastic differential equations, in order to provide insight into the behaviors of love. The analysis starts with a deterministic model and progresses to nonlinear stochastic models capturing the stochastic rates and factors (e.g., ecological factors, such as historical, cultural and community conditions) that affect proximal experiences and shape the patterns of relationship. Numerical examples are given to illustrate various dynamics of interpersonal and romantic behaviors with particular emphases placed on sustained oscillations and transitions between locally stable equilibria that are observable in stochastic models (closely related to real interpersonal dynamics), but absent in deterministic models.     

Threshold dynamics of the stochastic epidemic model with jump-diffusion infection force

This paper formulates a stochastic SIR epidemic model by supposing that the infection force is perturbed by Brown motion and L\''{e}vy jumps. The globally positive and bounded solution is proved firstly by constructing the suitable Lyapunov function. Then, a stochastic basic reproduction number $R_0^{L}$ is derived, which is less than that for the deterministic model and the stochastic model driven by Brown motion. Analytical results show that the disease will die out if $R_0^{L}<1$, and $R_0^{L}>1$ is the necessary and sufficient condition for persistence of the disease. Theoretical results and numerical simulations indicate that the effects of L\''{e}vy jumps may lead to extinction of the disease while the deterministic model and the stochastic model driven by Brown motion both predict persistence. Additionally, the method developed in this paper can be used to investigate a class of related stochastic models driven by L\''{e}vy noise.     

Existence of an infinite particle limit of stochastic ranking process

We study a stochastic particle system which models the time evolution of the ranking of books by online bookstores (e.g., Amazon.co.jp). In this system, particles are lined in a queue. Each particle jumps at random jump times to the top of the queue, and otherwise stays in the queue, being pushed toward the tail every time another particle jumps to the top. In an infinite particle limit, the random motion of each particle between its jumps converges to a deterministic trajectory. (This trajectory is actually observed in the ranking data on web sites.) We prove that the (random) empirical distribution of this particle system converges to a deterministic space–time-dependent distribution. A core of the proof is the law of large numbers for dependent random variables.     

Dynamics of positive solutions to SIR and SEIR epidemic models with saturated incidence rates

In this paper, we obtain sufficient criteria for the existence of periodic solutions to deterministic SIR and SEIR epidemic models with modified saturation incidence rates by means of using the continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory, and we show that the solution is unique and globally stable. Second, we discuss their corresponding stochastic epidemic models with random perturbation have a unique global positive solution respectively, and we utilize stochastic Lyapunov functions to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the solution.     

A generic framework for stochastic Loss-Given-Default

In this document a method is discussed to incorporate stochastic Loss-Given-Default (LGD) in factor models, i.e. structural models for credit risk. The general idea exhibited in this text is to introduce a common dependence of the LGD and the probability of default (PD) on a latent variable, representing the systemic risk. Though our theory can be applied to any arbitrary firm-value model and any underlying distribution for the LGD, provided its support is a compact subset of [0,1], special attention is given to the extension of the well-known cases of the Gaussian copula framework and the shifted Gamma one-factor model (a particular case of the generic one-factor Lévy model), and the LGD is modeled by a Beta distribution, in accordance with rating agency models and the Credit Metrics model.In order to introduce stochastic LGD, a monotonically decreasing relation is derived between the loss rate L, i.e. the loss as a percentage of the total exposure, and the standardized log-return R of the obligor’s asset value, which is assumed to be a function of one or more systematic and idiosyncratic risk factors. The property that the relation is decreasing guarantees that the LGD is negatively correlated to R and hence positively correlated to the default rate. From this relation, expressions are then derived for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and the expected value of the loss rate and the LGD, conditionally on a realization of the systematic risk factor(s). It is important to remark that all our results are derived under the large homogeneous portfolio (LHP) assumption and that they are fully consistent with the IRB approach outlined by the Basel II Capital Accord.We will demonstrate the impact of incorporating stochastic LGD and using models based on skew and fat-tailed distributions in determining adequate capital requirements. Furthermore, we also skim the potential application of the proposed framework in a credit risk environment. It will turn out that both building blocks, i.e. stochastic LGD and fat-tailed distributions, separately, increase the projected loss and thus the required capital charge. Hence, the aggregation of a model based on a fat-tailed underlying distribution that accounts for stochastic LGD will lead to sound capital requirements.     

Stochastic dominance based comparison for system selection

We present two complementing selection procedures for comparing simulated systems based on the stochastic dominance relationship of a performance metric of interest. The decision maker specifies an output quantile set representing a section of the distribution of the metric, e.g., downside or upside risks or central tendencies, as the basis for comparison. The first procedure compares systems over the quantile set of interest by a first-order stochastic dominance criterion. The systems that are deemed nondominant in the first procedure could be compared by a weaker almost first-order stochastic dominance criterion in the second procedure. Numerical examples illustrate the capabilities of the proposed procedures.     

The pricing of Asian options under stochastic interest rates

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of stochastic interest rates on the pricing of Asian options. It is shown that a stochastic, in contrast to a deterministic, development of the term structure of interest rates has a significant influence. The price of the underlying asset, e.g. a stock or oil, and the prices of bonds are assumed to follow correlated two-dimensional Itô processes. The averages considered in the Asian options are calculated on a discrete time grid, e.g. all closing prices on Wednesdays during the lifetime of the contract. The value of an Asian option will be obtained through the application of Monte Carlo simulation, and for this purpose the stochastic processes for the basic assets need not be severely restricted. However, to make comparison with published results originating from models with deterministic interest rates, we will stay within the setting of a Gaussian framework.     

Stochastic Epidemic SEIRS Models with a Constant Latency Period

In this paper, we consider the stability of a class of deterministic and stochastic SEIRS epidemic models with delay. Indeed, we assume that the transmission rate could be stochastic and the presence of a latency period of r consecutive days, where r is a fixed positive integer, in the “exposed” individuals class E. Studying the eigenvalues of the linearized system, we obtain conditions for the stability of the free disease equilibrium, in both the cases of the deterministic model with and without delay. In this latter case, we also get conditions for the stability of the coexistence equilibrium. In the stochastic case, we are able to derive a concentration result for the random fluctuations and then, using the Lyapunov method, to check that under suitable assumptions the free disease equilibrium is still stable.     

Dynamics of stochastic heroin epidemic model with L\""evy jumps

People have paid the surge of attention to the prevention and the control of the heroin epidemic for the number of drug addicts is increasing dramatically. In the study of the heroin epidemic, modeling is an important tool. So far many heroin epidemic models are often characterized by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and many results about them have been obtained. But unfortunately, there is little literature of stochastic heroin epidemic model with jumps. Based on this point, this paper establishes a class of heroin epidemic models---stochastic heroin epidemic model with L\"evy jumps. Under some given conditions, the existence of the global positive solution of such model is first obtained. We then study the asymptotic behavior of this model by applying the Lyapunov technique.     

Numerical analysis of semilinear stochastic evolution equations in Banach spaces

The solution of stochastic evolution equations generally relies on numerical computation. Here, usually the main idea is to discretize the SPDE spatially obtaining a system of SDEs that can be solved by e.g., the Euler scheme. In this paper, we investigate the discretization error of semilinear stochastic evolution equations in L^p-spaces, resp. Banach spaces. The space discretization may be done by Galerkin approximation, for the time discretization we consider the implicit Euler, the explicit Euler scheme and the Crank–Nicholson scheme. In the last section, we give some examples, i.e., we consider an SPDEs driven by nuclear Wiener noise approximated by wavelets and delay equation approximated by finite differences.     

Bifurcation analysis of a stochastic non-smooth friction model

Non-smooth systems with stochastic parameters are important models e.g. for brake and cam follower systems. They show special bifurcation phenomena, such as grazing bifurcations. This contribution studies the influence of stochastic processes on bifurcations in non-smooth systems. As an example, the classical mass on a belt system is considered, where stick-slip vibrations occur. Measurements indicate that the friction coefficient which plays a large role in the system behavior is not deterministic but can be described as a friction characteristic with added white noise. Therefore, a stochastic process is introduced into the non-smooth model and its influence on the bifurcation behavior is studied. It is shown that the stochastic process may alter the bifurcation behavior of the deterministic system. (© 2010 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Computational scheme for solving nonlinear fractional stochastic differential equations with delay

Abstract

This paper studies the numerical solution of fractional stochastic delay differential equations driven by Brownian motion. The proposed algorithm is based on linear B-spline interpolation. The convergence and the numerical performance of the method are analyzed. The technique is adopted for determining the statistical indicators of stochastic responses of fractional Langevin and Mackey-Glass models with stochastic excitations.     

Stochastically perturbed vector-borne disease models with direct transmission

In this paper we study a stochastic epidemic model of vector-borne diseases with direct mode of transmission and its delay modification. More precisely, we extend the deterministic epidemic models by introducing random perturbations around the endemic equilibrium state. By using suitable Lyapunov functions and functionals, we obtain stability conditions for the considered models and study the effect of the delay on the stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, numerical simulations for the stochastic model of malaria disease transmission are presented to illustrate our mathematical findings.