Interactive procedure for a multiobjective stochastic discrete dynamic problem

Multiple objectives and dynamics characterize many sequential decision problems. In the paper we consider returns in partially ordered criteria space as a way of generalization of single criterion dynamic programming models to multiobjective case. In our problem evaluations of alternatives with respect to criteria are represented by distribution functions. Thus, the overall comparison of two alternatives is equivalent to the comparison of two vectors of probability distributions. We assume that the decision maker tries to find a solution preferred to all other solutions (the most preferred solution). In the paper a new interactive procedure for stochastic, dynamic multiple criteria decision making problem is proposed. The procedure consists of two steps. First, the Bellman principle is used to identify the set of efficient solutions. Next interactive approach is employed to find the most preferred solution. A numerical example and a real-world application are presented to illustrate the applicability of the proposed technique.     

An Interactive Heuristic Approach for Multi-Objective Integer-Programming Problems

An interactive approach to solve the multi-objective integer-programming problem heuristically is described. The approach consists of two main parts. The first is an algorithm to guide the search for a set of weights to the objective functions which would produce the solution most preferred by the decision-maker given a linear utility function. The search area is successively decreased through an interaction process, with the decision-maker using a selection and contraction method. During each stage of this algorithm, a number of single integer-programming problems are solved heuristically. The motivation for this approach, along with some computational experimentation, is provided.     

MPOC: an agglomerative algorithm for multicriteria partially ordered clustering

In the field of multicriteria decision aid, considerable attention has been paid to supervised classification problems where the purpose is to assign alternatives into predefined ordered classes. In these approaches, often referred to as sorting methods, it is usually assumed that classes are either known a priori or can be identified by the decision maker. On the other hand, when the objective is to identify groups (clusters) of alternatives sharing similar characteristics, the problem is known as a clustering problem, also called an unsupervised learning problem. This paper proposes an agglomerative clustering method based on a crisp outranking relation. The method regroups alternatives into partially ordered classes, based on a quality of partition measure which reflects the percentage of pairs of alternatives that are compatible with a decision-maker’s multicriteria preference model.     

考虑决策者心理行为的直觉语言多属性决策方法

针对应用直觉语言集来表达决策信息的语言多属性决策问题,在考虑决策者有限理性的心理行为基础上,提出一种决策方法。该方法通过比较每个属性下方案之间的得分函数和精确函数, 构建方案的收益-损失分析矩阵。在考虑决策者参照依赖和损失规避心理行为基础上,计算每个方案相对于其它方案在每个属性下的收益-损失值优先度;在此基础上,计算备选方案的综合优先度, 并根据其大小对方案进行排序择优。最后通过一个算例验证所提出方法的有效性和合理性。     

A visual interactive approach for multiple criteria decision making with monotone utility functions

We consider the problem of choosing the best of a set of alternatives where each alternative is evaluated on multiple criteria. We develop a visual interactive approach assuming that the decision maker (DM) has a general monotone utility function. The approach partitions the criteria space into nonoverlapping cells. The DM uses various graphical aids to move between cells and to further manipulate selected cells with the goal of creating cells that have ideal points less preferred than an alternative. When the DM identifies such cells, all alternatives in those cells are eliminated from further consideration. The DM may also compare pairs of alternatives. The approach terminates with the most preferred alternative of the DM.     

Decision making in multiobjective optimization aided by the multicriteria tournament decision method

This paper proposes a new method for multicriteria analysis, named Multicriteria Tournament Decision (MTD). It provides the ranking of alternatives from best to worst, according to the preferences of a human decision-maker (DM). It has some positive aspects such as: it has a simple algorithm with intuitive appeal; it involves few input parameters (just the importance weight of each criterion).The helpfulness of MTD is demonstrated by using it to select the final solution of multiobjective optimization problems in an a posteriori decision making approach. Having at hand a discrete approximation of the Pareto front (provided by a multiobjective evolutionary search algorithm), the choice of the preferred Pareto-optimal solution is performed using MTD.A simple method, named Gain Analysis method (GAM), for verifying the existence of a better solution (a solution associated to higher marginal rates of return) than the one originally chosen by the DM, is also introduced here. The usefulness of MTD and GAM methods is confirmed by the suitable results shown in this paper.     

Influence of aggregation and measurement scale on ranking a compromise alternative in AHP

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most popular multi-attribute decision aid methods. However, within AHP, there are several competing preference measurement scales and aggregation techniques. In this paper, we compare these possibilities using a decision problem with an inherent trade-off between two criteria. A decision-maker has to choose among three alternatives: two extremes and one compromise. Six different measurement scales described previously in the literature and the new proposed logarithmic scale are considered for applying the additive and the multiplicative aggregation techniques. The results are compared with the standard consumer choice theory. We find that with the geometric and power scales a compromise is never selected when aggregation is additive and rarely when aggregation is multiplicative, while the logarithmic scale used with the multiplicative aggregation most often selects the compromise that is desirable by consumer choice theory.     

Decision making in multiobjective optimization aided by the multicriteria tournament decision method

This paper proposes a new method for multicriteria analysis, named Multicriteria Tournament Decision (MTD). It provides the ranking of alternatives from best to worst, according to the preferences of a human decision-maker (DM). It has some positive aspects such as: it has a simple algorithm with intuitive appeal; it involves few input parameters (just the importance weight of each criterion).The helpfulness of MTD is demonstrated by using it to select the final solution of multiobjective optimization problems in an a posteriori decision making approach. Having at hand a discrete approximation of the Pareto front (provided by a multiobjective evolutionary search algorithm), the choice of the preferred Pareto-optimal solution is performed using MTD.A simple method, named Gain Analysis method (GAM), for verifying the existence of a better solution (a solution associated to higher marginal rates of return) than the one originally chosen by the DM, is also introduced here. The usefulness of MTD and GAM methods is confirmed by the suitable results shown in this paper.     

An Interactive Approach for Choosing the Best of a Set of Alternatives

In this paper we address the problem of choosing the most preferred alternative among a large number of alternatives where each alternative is defined by multiple criteria. We assume that the decision maker has a quasiconcave utility function. We develop an exact approach that combines the ideas that have appeared in the literature regarding the use of different types of dummy alternatives in conjunction with real alternatives. Our experimental results indicate that the new approach is comparable to leading existing approaches.     

A Decision Model for the Multiple Criteria Group Secretary Problem: Theoretical Considerations

A decision model is developed for solving the discrete multiple criteria group secretary problem. The model extends the single decision-maker progressive algorithm by Korhonen, Moskowitz and Wallenius to group contexts. As the original progressive algorithm, it relaxes the usual assumption of a fixed set of available decision alternatives and complete knowledge of a decision-maker's preference structure (value function). The decision-makers are requested to settle on a compromise, if possible. The model then proceeds with determining the likelihood of finding possibly/surely better settlements (compromises). Linear value functions, linear prospect theory-type value functions, and quasiconcave value functions are considered.     

Multi-Decision-Makers Equalizer: A Multiobjective Decision Support System for Multiple Decision-Makers

In this paper we present a decision support system that helps to solve multiobjective decision problems considering a multi decision-makers framework. By an iterative procedure this system looks for a single solution that satisfies all decision-makers equally. The negotiation process requires that each decision-maker trade certain benefits in some of the objectives being analyzed for benefits in others. Finally a compromise solution should be obtained.     

Distributed preference relations for multiple attribute decision analysis

In this paper, we propose a new pairwise comparison approach called distributed preference relation (DPR) to simultaneously signify preferred, non-preferred, indifferent, and uncertain degrees of one alternative over another on a set of grades, which is more versatile for elicitation of preference information from a decision maker than multiplicative preference relation, fuzzy preference relation (FPR) and intuitionistic FPR. In a DPR matrix on a set of alternatives, each element is a distribution recording the preferred, non-preferred, indifferent, and uncertain degrees of one alternative over another using a set of grades. To facilitate the comparison of alternatives, we define a score matrix based on a DPR matrix using the given score values of the grades. Its additive consistency is constructed, analysed, and compared with the additive consistency of FPRs between alternatives. A method for comparing two interval numbers is then employed to create a possibility matrix from the score matrix, which can generate a ranking order of alternatives with possibility degrees. A problem of evaluating strategic emerging industries is investigated using the approach to demonstrate the application of a DPR matrix to modelling and analysing a multiple attribute decision analysis problem.     

Multiattribute utility analysis for policy selection and financing for the preservation of the forest

In this paper, we examine effective policies for financing and activities for the preservation of the forest on Mount Ryuoh in the city of Higashi-Hiroshima by multiattribute utility analysis. In multiattribute utility analysis, we deal with decision making problems with multiple attributes and select the most effective solution among several alternatives by deriving preference of the decision maker. Although in our decision making problem, the decision maker is a representative of a hypothetical nonprofit organization established for the preservation of the forest, the decision maker gives serious consideration to intentions of several groups of people receiving the benefit from the mountain, and then from this viewpoint, our problem can be interpreted as a group decision making problem.     

Classifying efficient alternatives in SMAA using cross confidence factors

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods for aiding multicriteria group decision making. These methods are based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the preferences that make each alternative the most preferred one. The main results of the analysis are rank acceptability indices, central weight vectors and confidence factors for different alternatives. The rank acceptability indices describe the variety of different preferences resulting in a certain rank for an alternative; the central weight vectors represent the typical preferences favouring each alternative; and the confidence factors measure whether the criteria data are sufficiently accurate for making an informed decision.In some cases, when the problem involves a large number of efficient alternatives, the analysis may fail to discriminate between them. This situation is revealed by low confidence factors. In this paper we develop cross confidence factors, which are based on computing confidence factors for alternatives using each other’s central weight vectors. The cross confidence factors can be used for classifying efficient alternatives into sets of similar and competing alternatives. These sets are related to the concept of reference sets in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), but generalized for stochastic models. Forming these sets is useful when trying to identify one or more most preferred alternatives, or suitable compromise alternatives. The reference sets can also be used for evaluating whether criteria need to be measured more accurately, and at which alternatives the measurements should be focused. This may cause considerable savings in measurement costs. We demonstrate the use of the cross confidence factors and reference sets using a real-life example.     

Dominance,potential optimality and alternative ranking in imprecise multi-attribute decision making

In this paper, we introduce a methodology based on an additive multiattribute utility function that does not call for precise estimations of the inputs, such as utilities, attribute weights and performances of decision alternatives. The information about such inputs is assumed to be in the form of ranges, which constitute model constraints and give rise to nonlinear programming problems. This has significant drawbacks for outputting the sets of non-dominated and potentially optimal alternatives for such problems, and we, therefore, propose their transformation into equivalent linear programming problems. The set of non-dominated and potentially optimal alternatives is a non-ranked set and can be very large, which makes the choice of the most preferred alternative very difficult. The above problem is solved by proposing several methods for alternative ranking. An application to the disposal of surplus weapons-grade plutonium is considered, showing the advantages of this approach.     

Finding the most preferred alliance structure between banks and insurance companies

In this paper we have studied alternative alliances between banks and insurance companies. First we defined six different possible structure models for such alliances, and nine criteria used to evaluate the models. The models and the criteria were introduced together with bank and insurance experts. The experts are representatives of the top management of Finnish banks and insurance companies. Searching for the most preferred alliance model is a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. To solve the problem, we used an expert panel and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Based on the evaluations of the panel, the alternatives Financial Conglomerate and Cross-Selling Agreement, no Overlapping Service Channels are most preferred. Which one is chosen, depends on how risk is emphasized.     

Marriage Partner Selection in Kuwait: An Analytical Hierarchy Process Approach

The decision to marry is one of the most critical decisions in young ladie' lives where wrong choices may have adverse effects. This study investigates this issue in developing countries using the small state of Kuwait as a manageable case study. This research utilizes the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) due to the multiplicity of objectives. Women from different ethnic, religious, and residential backgrounds were surveyed. The problem considers eight criteria and four alternatives (male candidates). It was found from the study that the most preferred criteria are personality, followed by marital status and religious status, respectively.     

Ranking multicriteria alternatives: The method ZAPROS III

The new version of the method for the construction of partial order on the set of multicriteria alternatives is presented. This method belongs to the family of verbal decision analysis (VDA) methods and gives a more efficient means of problem solution. The method is based on psychologically valid operations for information elicitation from a decision maker: comparisons of two distances between the evaluations on the ordinal scales of two criteria. The information received from a decision maker is used for the construction of a binary relation between a pair of alternatives which yields preference, indifference and incomparability relations. The method allows construction of a partial order on the set of given alternatives as well as on the set of all possible alternatives. The illustrative example is given.     

基于证据推理的混合型多指标群组决策方法

针对决策方案的属性值为语言评价等级和区间灰数的灰色多指标群组决策问题,提出一种基于证据推理的灰色多指标群组决策方法.首先,根据语言评价信息的概率分布和效用值等价原理确定定性指标和定量指标的信用结构,进而得到群体等级信用结构决策矩阵,然后,依据证据推理方法,对群组评价信息进行合成,求出各方案在各等级的信任度,最后,利用期望方差排序方法确定整个方案集的排序.具体算例表明方法合理有效.