Subjective Information Modelling

Operational Research is viewed as an aid to decision making and it is believed that at present an increasing part of the decision maker's task is being shut off from the operational researcher because of the latter's inability to make a useful contribution. Particular problems are those in which the decision maker has to use his subjective judgement, intuition and foresight to enable him to make choices between alternatives. There has been a great deal of work over the last ten years in the field of technological forecasting in which attempts are made to qualify, quantify and aggregate such subjective judgements, for example, Delphi and Cross Impact Analysis.The object of this paper is to present a framework within which these new procedures and the traditional O.R. approaches may be brought together. We feel that this may open the way for an improvement in decision making and an expanded role for O.R.     

How Relevant is Operational Research to Development? The Case of Kenyan Industry

This paper proposes that the debate over O.R.'s role in development can be advanced by looking at a specific industrial environment. The Kenyan example suggests that for O.R. to make a contribution to this developing society it must: first, be defined as broadly as possible so as to include the most basic problem-solving techniques, and second, contribute to the diffusing of these techniques throughout the economy. O.R. should be viewed less as the province of an elite group of specialists— and more as a common resource available to managers at any level of industry. O.R. educators in developing nations can "democratise" quantitative techniques by incorporating them into such traditional business disciplines as accounting, marketing, and production. These courses should stress problem-solving and rely on cases drawn from local experiences. The paper ends by describing a pilot project, the Case Research and Documentation Centre, which is designed to promote more pragmatic management education and research in Kenya.     

The Changing Role of O.R.

The authors set out to consider the activities of their own O.R. group at British Airways in the light of Russ Ackoff's papers delivered at the 1978 ORS Conference, but the paper has developed into a discussion of Ackoff's ideas from the viewpoint of an in-house industrial O.R. group that has had considerable success in implementation and has thought a great deal about what it is trying to do. Particularly relevant is the emphasis placed by this O.R. group on highly interactive planning models and systems and on an evolutionary approach to development. Some attempt is made to put Ackoff's ideas into an historical perspective and his main points are discussed one by one. The authors are in sympathy with the direction Ackoff is pressing, but not with the gloom his paper has generated in some quarters.     

Corporate Planning and Its Use of O.R. in the N.C.B.: A Personal View

Moving from Operational Research to Corporate Planning within one organisation is a rather modest change, which nevertheless leads to a different perspective. While still an advisory function, Corporate Planning, to be successful, has to maintain itself at the centre of a `messy' system tackling `messy' problems. Holding on to a clear strategy in such circumstances is not only difficult but vital. The success of the strategy depends on its robustness and ability to adapt to new circumstances. Recent debates in the O.R. literature have focused on the importance of robustness and the nature of uncertainty using the paradigms of rational and bureaucratic processes. This is a useful perspective from which to view our activities and the relative roles of Operational Research and Corporate Planning, either separately or together. The term `mature' O.R. is used to differentiate research that has been built up over many years in the N.C.B. from the problem solving activity often used to characterise O.R. The challenge is to prevent maturity developing into old age.     

A Kuhnian Crisis in Management Science?

A survey of the Journal of the O.R. Society in 1978 shows that Ackoff's papers were part of a quite widespread and often pessimistic debate about the practical success of O.R. A similar survey for 1968 shows, on the other hand, a widespread mood of optimism. It is suggested that O.R. is now in a period of crisis analogous to that described by Kuhn in the Natural Sciences, when the dominant framework of assumptions appears to fail in relation to important problems. When such failures persist, alternative frameworks are proposed challenging the hitherto accepted view, and an increasingly wide-ranging debate develops. Many of the features of such debates, as outlined by Kuhn, seem to be present in the current controversy within O.R. More specifically, it seems possible in O.R. and related fields to identify three rival sets of proposals, which may be labelled official, reformist (e.g. Ackoffian) and revolutionary. However, the debate in O.R. differs from that in the Natural Sciences because it is not just about the best means of understanding the empirical world. It is also about the type of social world to be constructed through the framework of assumptions adopted. Our view is that in the current debate, proponents of the reformist stance will probably win. However, this may be very much an interim solution.     

A Banker's View of Operational Research

This is an edited version of the opening address to Euro-Banking 1984 by Humphrey Norrington, General Manager of Barclays Bank. The range of business problems faced by Barclays Bank is outlined and related to its use of operational research. Mr Norrington's message is that O.R. is most effective when applied in collaboration with other disciplines, and he challenges O.R. workers to take a very broad view of their work.     

An Integrated Model for Master Scheduling,Lot Sizing and Capacity Requirements Planning

Although material requirements planning (M.R.P.) allows managers to better plan hierarchical production and inventory systems, much is still left to the planner's intuition and experience in devising realistic master production schedules, selecting appropriate lot sizes for components, and changing capacity levels. Decisions are made sequentially, rather than simultaneously, with no real assurance of satisfactory performance.This research proposes an integrated model for facilitating these decisions. A mixed-integer nonlinear programming model is formulated such that it can be solved by a heuristic procedure. Several versions of this procedure are tested in a research design controlling for nine variables on shop and cost structure. Preliminary research results show that the procedure gives good solutions to the situations represented by the experimental variables. Computational results are also encouraging.     

Micro,Mini or Mainframe—What's Right for You?

An investigation was undertaken in late 1982/early 1983 into the computing needs of operational research workers in British Gas. The approach was first to draw up a specification of O.R.'s computing needs in terms of service levels, provision of hardware and software. Alternative options for meeting this specification were then costed out. Options examined included an interactive service on the mainframe computer, use of a minicomputer, and the use of micros plus mainframe interactive service. The results are given in the paper for various sizes of O.R. group, together with the results of sensitivity exercises.     

A Materialist Analysis of Operational Research

Accounts of the development and practice of operational research have commonly stressed its timeless universality as a method for rational decision-making. In this paper operational research is seen as one element in the managerial response to problems of complexity and uncertainty within an economic system characterised by institutionalised conflict. Both the material and ideological functions of ‘management science’ in private and public enterprise are analysed, and characteristics are identified of an emergent ‘workers science’. Editor's Note The title of this paper contrasts the materialistic approach with the idealistic approach, and the content of the paper disowns the latter. Evidently there are alternative but overtly political terms for both adjectives.It would be stupid if O.R. were to ignore the political facts of life which play so great a part in the decisions and policies with which O.R. is concerned. But, as the authors acknowledge, other interpretations of history than those presented here are at least possible.Contributions offering alternative schemata, or based on other paradigms, are invited and will be given careful consideration.     

Personal Computers and Operational Research — Experience in British Steel

The exploitation in personal computers of the well-publicized micro-technology is seen by the author as a major development with significant implications for O.R. This paper considers the nature of the implications from the point of view of the central O.R. unit of the British Steel Corporation and discusses that unit's response. The personal computer options are discussed and the applications policy which has been evolved for the author's department explained.     

Experiences with Using Expert Systems in O.R.

Increased awareness of expert systems technology, and the availability of relevant software, has tempted many O.R. groups to investigate the expert systems approach. This paper considers the strategies open to O.R. groups interested in employing expert systems, reviews some of the relevant software, and discusses what those O.R. groups who have already investigated the use of expert systems methods are actually doing.Some of the authors' experience of developing expert systems is discussed. The development of an expert system that helps bankers analyse company accounts is presented. The use of expert system methods as vehicles for decision analysis, and the possibilities for producing systems that act as O.R. consultants are also discussed.     

The Art of Course Planning: Soft O.R. in Action

This article is a case study described from two viewpoints: that of an analyst and that of a ‘decision-maker’. It describes the use of two ‘soft O.R.’ methods in helping the members of a university O.R. group to plan revisions to a postgraduate Diploma course, resulting in the implementation of an improved course. One author conducted the exercise while the other was a member of the client group. Given that case studies are usually written by the analyst alone, it is hoped that a client's eye-view will be useful as feedback for practitioners and can also introduce some of the concepts and terminology of soft O.R. to those engaged in more mathematical O.R. activities.     

Operational Research for the Real World: big questions from a small island

The address explores three questions that are important for operational research: ‘Where do we come from?’, ‘What are we?’ and ‘Where are we going?’ First, it looks briefly at the history of O.R. from Babbage to Blackett and the importance of a ‘union of theory and practice’ in our work. Then it looks at O.R.'s identity and image and argues that we do have a reasonably clear idea of our identity, although we do not give sufficient prominence to our contribution to improving system design. It also argues that the ‘brand image’ of O.R. has become diluted and needs to be simple, distinctive, relevant and compelling. In considering how we might achieve that, by addressing the third question, it proposes that we should grow our capability and activity in accommodating ‘analytics’, in building in behavioural science, in coping with complex systems, in developing design thinking and in encouraging evaluation. It also suggests strengthening bridges between academics and practitioners, between those working in different specialisms and in diverse sectors and between O.R. and the public. Finally, it argues that such developments would assist O.R. to reinforce our bridge between science and the humanities and enable us to better meet the challenges of the ‘real world’.     

Attitudes and Perceptions Relating to Implementation and Success in Operational Research

This paper presents a study of a group of O.R. projects. The major emphasis of the research was on a comparison of both the managers' and the O.R. practitioners' perceptions and attitudes. The results show a large amount of agreement between the two groups, and the main disagreement concerned their confidence in the solution. A principal component analysis of the data followed by an orthogonal rotation produced a set of eight principal factors. These were then used for a regression analysis having implementation and success as dependent variables. The results indicate that major differences are seen in the relationship of the dependents to the factors when analysed separately for managers and practitioners. Most of the variance in the implementation score of practitioners is ‘explained’ by attitudinal variables, but this is not true for managers. Implications of the research for this Churchman/Schainblatt concept of "mutual understanding" are suggested.     

A debate about the axiomatization of arithmetic: Otto Hölder against Robert Graßmann

This article provides a detailed discussion of Otto Hölder's ideas on the foundations of mathematics. It focuses on a paper he published in 1892 written in reaction to a book published in 1891 by Robert Graßmann, which Hölder saw as an attempt to axiomatize arithmetic. Hölder's paper is important for at least three reasons: First, it represents what might be called Hölder's research manifesto on the foundations of mathematics, containing a wealth of ideas which Hölder gradually developed in a variety of publications until the end of his life. Second, Hölder's analysis of R. Graßmann's foundational ideas provides an important assessment of the contribution of Hermann and Robert Graßmann to the axiomatization of arithmetic, a contribution which, though often mentioned, is itself still not widely acknowledged and not fully understood. Third, the effort of exposing the weak spots in R. Graßmann's ideas led Hölder to formulate the main problems confronting formal axiomatics: independence of the axioms, consistency, completeness, and the issue of the relationship between pure mathematics and its applications. The first part of this paper presents R. Graßmann's ideas on the foundations of mathematics as outlined in two closely related works published in 1872 and 1891. The second part focuses on Hölder's analysis of these ideas.     

Assessing bank efficiency and performance with operational research and artificial intelligence techniques: A survey

This paper presents a comprehensive review of 196 studies which employ operational research (O.R.) and artificial intelligence (A.I.) techniques in the assessment of bank performance. Several key issues in the literature are highlighted. The paper also points to a number of directions for future research. We first discuss numerous applications of data envelopment analysis which is the most widely applied O.R. technique in the field. Then we discuss applications of other techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, and multicriteria decision aid that have also been used in recent years, in bank failure prediction studies and the assessment of bank creditworthiness and underperformance.     

On the nature of OR: taking stock

This paper argues that OR, having reached its maturity, must now play to its strengths. In strategic terms this means competing in those areas where OR's core competences can be brought to bear. Using a competence model it is suggested that OR's core products are (i) the development and implementation of the quantitative, algorithmic ‘smart bits’ and (ii) the ‘helpful ways’ of managing intervention processes. These core products are supported and sustained by three core competences labelled process, analytic, and context. Individuals and small groups of practitioners develop ‘strands of practice’ and larger groups ‘webs of practice’ on the basis of their core competences. It is argued that this is giving rise to the emergence of three archetypes of OR service, namely the OR technical consultancy, the OR process consultancy, and the full service OR consultancy. Both the technical and process consulting are built around ‘strands of practice’ of individuals and find their natural home in small service providers. The full service OR consulting practice, in the past located in internal OR groups, will in the future be located within the large management consultancies, which are capable of managing ‘webs of practice’. The implications for the worlds of OR practice and academia are examined.     

Telephone Systems in the Third World: A Research Project

Potential users of the telephone in the Third World are often frustrated by lack of good access to the system or by its poor performance in terms of call delays. A research project has been carried out for a period of over three years addressed to the management of this ‘mess’. The field work took place in Kenya and included a major survey of telephone users in two regions. Models have been developed in the areas of regional demand and corporate policy but it is argued that these are not necessarily the major contributors to the primary goal of increased understanding. The article describes the context of the research, gives an outline of the work which has been carried out and discusses implementation. Some inferences are drawn on the usefulness of O.R. in the Third World and on research into 'messes'.     

A cognitive approach to group strategic decision taking: a discussion of evolved practice in the light of received research results

Over the last decade there has been a significant development of cognitive approaches to making strategic decisions in complex, uncertain conditions. These assist top management teams to gain a greater understanding of their strategic situation and to develop creative, innovative thinking about the options open to them. By articulating, and sharing individual and collective beliefs they may be subjected to challenge and testing both against group experience and by analysis. This may be seen to promote both individual and organisational learning. This paper describes one particular approach, which shares many features with others of the genre, and which evolved from some of the steps in Shell International's scenario planning. It articulates many of the practical guidelines developed by practitioners and passed on mainly by the apprenticeship model and relates them to published results over some thirty years of research on decision making in small groups. This both largely confirms the guidelines but also further elucidates them. The conceptual foundations of the process and its inter-relationships with more formal, analytical methods are also considered.