Least-squares linear estimation of signals from observations with Markovian delays

The least-squares linear estimation of signals from randomly delayed measurements is addressed when the delay is modeled by a homogeneous Markov chain. To estimate the signal, recursive filtering and fixed-point smoothing algorithms are derived, using an innovation approach, assuming that the covariance functions of the processes involved in the observation equation are known. Recursive formulas for filtering and fixed-point smoothing error covariance matrices are obtained to measure the goodness of the proposed estimators.     

Least-squares linear estimation of signals from observations with Markovian delays

The least-squares linear estimation of signals from randomly delayed measurements is addressed when the delay is modeled by a homogeneous Markov chain. To estimate the signal, recursive filtering and fixed-point smoothing algorithms are derived, using an innovation approach, assuming that the covariance functions of the processes involved in the observation equation are known. Recursive formulas for filtering and fixed-point smoothing error covariance matrices are obtained to measure the goodness of the proposed estimators.     

Observer-based fault detection for networked discrete-time infinite-distributed delay systems with packet dropouts

This paper addresses the problem of fault detection for networked discrete-time infinite-distributed delay systems with packet dropouts. Both sensor-to-controller and controller-to-actuator packet dropouts are described by two different Bernoulli distributed white sequences, respectively. The problem addressed is to design an observer-based fault detection filter (FDF) such that the error between the residual and the fault is made as small as possible. Unlike most of the existing literature, we have noted that the control input of the observer is different from that of the plant because of packet dropouts in the controller-to-actuator link. Sufficient condition for the existence of the FDF is derived in terms of some linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). When these LMIs are feasible, the explicit expression of the desired FDF can also be characterized. A numerical example is exploited to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.     

带ARMA有色噪声的广义系统信息融合Kalman平滑器

对于带自回归滑动平均(ARMA)有色观测噪声的多传感器广义离散随机线性系统,应用奇异值分解,提出了广义系统多传感器信息融合状态平滑问题。基于Kalman滤波方法,在线性最小方差信息融合准则下,给出了按矩阵加权融合降阶稳态广义Kalman平滑器。为了计算最优加权,提出了局部平滑误差协方差阵的计算公式。一个Monte Carlo仿真例子说明了所提方法的有效性。     

Locally adaptive hazard smoothing

Summary We consider nonparametric estimation of hazard functions and their derivatives under random censorship, based on kernel smoothing of the Nelson (1972) estimator. One critically important ingredient for smoothing methods is the choice of an appropriate bandwidth. Since local variance of these estimates depends on the point where the hazard function is estimated and the bandwidth determines the trade-off between local variance and local bias, data-based local bandwidth choice is proposed. A general principle for obtaining asymptotically efficient data-based local bandwiths, is obtained by means of weak convergence of a local bandwidth process to a Gaussian limit process. Several specific asymptotically efficient bandwidth estimators are discussed. We propose in particular an, asymptotically efficient method derived from direct pilot estimators of the hazard function and of the local mean squared error. This bandwidth choice method has practical advantages and is also of interest in the uncensored case as well as for density estimation.Research supported by UC Davis Faculty Research Grant and by Air Force grant AFOSR-89-0386Research supported by Air Force grant AFOSR-89-0386     

Least-squares Polynomial Estimation from Observations Featuring Correlated Random Delays

The least-squares polynomial filtering and fixed-point smoothing problems of discrete-time signals from randomly delayed observations is addressed, when the Bernoulli random variables modelling the delay are correlated at consecutive sampling times. Recursive estimation algorithms are deduced without requiring full knowledge of the state-space model generating the signal process, but only information about the delay probabilities and the moments of the processes involved. Defining a suitable augmented observation vector, the polynomial estimation problem is reduced to the linear estimation problem of the signal based on the augmented observations, which is solved by using an innovation approach.     

Local Linear Estimation of Jump-Diffusion Models by Using Asymmetric Kernels

This article addresses the problem of nonparametric estimation of the first and second infinitesimal moments by using the local linear method of the underlying jump-diffusion models. The motivation behind the study is to use the asymmetric kernels instead of standard kernel smoothing. The basic idea relies on replacing the symmetric kernel by asymmetric kernel and provides a new way of obtaining the nonparametric estimation for jump-diffusion models. We prove that the estimators based on the local linear method for jump-diffusion models are consistent and asymptotically follow normal distribution under the condition of recurrence and stationarity.     

Optimal Control of Population Dynamics

This paper studies the role of projection algorithms in conditional set membership estimation. These algorithms are known to be suboptimal in terms of the worst-case estimation error. A tight upper bound on the error of central projection estimators and interpolatory projection estimators is computed as a function of the conditional radius of information. Since the radius of information represents the minimum achievable error, the derived bound provides a measure of the reliability level of the suboptimal algorithms. The results are derived in a general deterministic setting, which allows the consideration of linearly parametrized approximations of a compact set of feasible problem elements.     

Targeted smoothing parameter selection for estimating average causal effects

The non-parametric estimation of average causal effects in observational studies often relies on controlling for confounding covariates through smoothing regression methods such as kernel, splines or local polynomial regression. Such regression methods are tuned via smoothing parameters which regulates the amount of degrees of freedom used in the fit. In this paper we propose data-driven methods for selecting smoothing parameters when the targeted parameter is an average causal effect. For this purpose, we propose to estimate the exact expression of the mean squared error of the estimators. Asymptotic approximations indicate that the smoothing parameters minimizing this mean squared error converges to zero faster than the optimal smoothing parameter for the estimation of the regression functions. In a simulation study we show that the proposed data-driven methods for selecting the smoothing parameters yield lower empirical mean squared error than other methods available such as, e.g., cross-validation.     

部分线性变系数模型中估计的渐进正态性

作为部分线性模型与变系数模型的推广,部分线性变系数模型是一类应用非常广泛的模型,本文基于Profile最小二乘方法给出了模型中参数分量与非参数分量的估计,并在异方差情形下证明了这些估计的渐进正态性.     

Instrumental variable approach to covariate measurement error in generalized linear models

The paper presents the method of moments estimation for generalized linear measurement error models using the instrumental variable approach. The measurement error has a parametric distribution that is not necessarily normal, while the distributions of the unobserved covariates are nonparametric. We also propose simulation-based estimators for the situation where the closed forms of the moments are not available. The proposed estimators are strongly consistent and asymptotically normally distributed under some regularity conditions. Finite sample performances of the estimators are investigated through simulation studies.     

An innovation approach to the smoothing problem from uncertain observations with correlated signal and noise

This paper treats the least mean‐squared error linear fixed‐point and fixed‐lag smoothing problems from uncertain observations, when the variables describing the uncertainty are independent, and the signal and observation white noise are correlated. Using an innovation approach, recursive algorithms are derived for both estimators without requiring the whole knowledge of the state‐space model generating the signal, but only covariance information of the signal and the observation noise, as well as the probability that the signal exists in the observed values. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不同自变量的变系数模型的估计

讨论具有不同自变量的变系数模型的函数系数的估计及其大样本性质。使用局部线性方法和积分方法,得到函数系数的积分估计;由于该估计有较大的方差,进一步使用回切法改进这一估计,获得了函数系数的改进估计;同时,研究了改进估计的渐近正态性。最后,用模拟例子说明提出的估计方法是有效的。     

Statistical estimation in varying coefficient models with surrogate data and validation sampling

Varying coefficient error-in-covariables models are considered with surrogate data and validation sampling. Without specifying any error structure equation, two estimators for the coefficient function vector are suggested by using the local linear kernel smoothing technique. The proposed estimators are proved to be asymptotically normal. A bootstrap procedure is suggested to estimate the asymptotic variances. The data-driven bandwidth selection method is discussed. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the proposed estimating methods.     

Semi-parametric estimation of partially linear single-index models

One of the most difficult problems in applications of semi-parametric partially linear single-index models (PLSIM) is the choice of pilot estimators and complexity parameters which may result in radically different estimators. Pilot estimators are often assumed to be root-n consistent, although they are not given in a constructible way. Complexity parameters, such as a smoothing bandwidth are constrained to a certain speed, which is rarely determinable in practical situations.In this paper, efficient, constructible and practicable estimators of PLSIMs are designed with applications to time series. The proposed technique answers two questions from Carroll et al. [Generalized partially linear single-index models, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 92 (1997) 477-489]: no root-n pilot estimator for the single-index part of the model is needed and complexity parameters can be selected at the optimal smoothing rate. The asymptotic distribution is derived and the corresponding algorithm is easily implemented. Examples from real data sets (credit-scoring and environmental statistics) illustrate the technique and the proposed methodology of minimum average variance estimation (MAVE).     

Efficient estimation of functional-coefficient regression models with different smoothing variables

In this article,a procedure for estimating the coefficient functions on the functional-coefficient regression models with different smoothing variables in different coefficient functions is defined.First step,by the local linear technique and the averaged method,the initial estimates of the coefficient functions are given.Second step,based on the initial estimates,the efficient estimates of the coefficient functions are proposed by a one-step back-fitting procedure.The efficient estimators share the same asymptotic normalities as the local linear estimators for the functional-coefficient models with a single smoothing variable in different functions.Two simulated examples show that the procedure is effective.     

Varying-coefficient model for the occurrence rate function of recurrent events

This article mainly considers the recurrent event process with independent censoring mechanism through a more flexible varying-coefficient model. The smoothing estimators for the varying-coefficient functions are also proposed via maximizing the kernel weight version of the log-partial likelihood function with respect to the coefficients at each time point. For the selection of appropriate bandwidths and the construction of confidence intervals, the consistent empirical smoothing estimators for the covariance functions of the estimators and a bias correction method are considered. As for the baseline effect function of recurrent events in the population, two different smoothing estimation methods are suggested and investigated. In this study, the asymptotic properties of the proposed smoothing estimators are derived. The finite sample properties of our methods are examined through a Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, the procedures are applied to a recurrent sample of AIDS link to intravenous experiences (ALIVE) cohort study.     

Numerical discretization-based kernel type estimation methods for ordinary differential equation models

We consider the problem of parameter estimation in both linear and nonlinear ordinary differential equation(ODE) models. Nonlinear ODE models are widely used in applications. But their analytic solutions are usually not available. Thus regular methods usually depend on repetitive use of numerical solutions which bring huge computational cost. We proposed a new two-stage approach which includes a smoothing method(kernel smoothing or local polynomial fitting) in the first stage, and a numerical discretization method(Eulers discretization method, the trapezoidal discretization method,or the Runge–Kutta discretization method) in the second stage. Through numerical simulations, we find the proposed method gains a proper balance between estimation accuracy and computational cost.Asymptotic properties are also presented, which show the consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators under some mild conditions. The proposed method is compared to existing methods in term of accuracy and computational cost. The simulation results show that the estimators with local linear smoothing in the first stage and trapezoidal discretization in the second stage have the lowest average relative errors. We apply the proposed method to HIV dynamics data to illustrate the practicability of the estimator.     

Asymptotics of estimators for nonparametric multivariate regression models with long memory

In this paper, a nonparametric multivariate regression model with long memory covariates and long memory errors is considered. We approximate the nonparametric multivariate regression function by the weighted additive one-dimensional functions. The local linear smoothing and least squares method are proposed for the one-dimensional regression estimation and the weight parameters estimation, respectively. The asymptotic behaviors of the proposed estimators are investigated.     

Efficient Quantile Estimation for Functional-Coefficient Partially Linear Regression Models

The quantile estimation methods are proposed for functional-coefficient partially linear regression (FCPLR) model by combining nonparametric and functional-coefficient regression (FCR) model. The local linear scheme and the integrated method are used to obtain local quantile estimators of all unknown functions in the FCPLR model. These resulting estimators are asymptotically normal, but each of them has big variance. To reduce variances of these quantile estimators, the one-step backfitting technique is used to obtain the efficient quantile estimators of all unknown functions, and their asymptotic normalities are derived. Two simulated examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed estimation methodology.