THE INSURANCE VALUE OF BIODIVERSITY IN THE PROVISION OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

ABSTRACT. Biodiversity provides insurance against the uncertain provision of ecosystem services which are being used by risk‐averse economic agents. I present a conceptual ecological‐economic model that combines (i) current results from ecology about the relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the provision of ecosystem services with (ii) economic methods to study decision‐making under uncertainty. In this framework I (1) determine the insurance value of biodiversity, (2) study the optimal allocation of funds in the trade‐off between investing into biodiversity protection and the purchase of financial insurance, and (3) analyze the effect of different institutional regimes in the market for financial insurance on biodiversity protection. I conclude that biodiversity acts as a form of natural insurance for risk‐averse ecosystem managers against the over‐ or under‐provision with ecosystem services. Therefore, biodiversity has an insurance value, which is a value component in addition to the usual value arguments, such as direct or indirect use or non‐use values. In this respect, biodiversity and financial insurance are substitutes. Hence, the availability, and exact institutional design, of financial insurance influence the level of biodiversity protection.     

A BIOECONOMIC APPROACH TO THE FAUSTMANN–HARTMAN MODEL: ECOLOGICAL INTERACTIONS IN MANAGED FOREST

Abstract This paper develops a bioeconomic forestry model that makes it possible to take ecosystem services that are independent of the age structure of trees into account. We derive the Faustmann–Hartman optimal harvesting strategy as a special case. The bioeconomic model is then extended to account for the fact that forest harvesting decisions impact on other ecological resources, which provide benefits for the wider community. The paper focuses on impacts associated with disturbance caused by logging operations and habitat destruction due to tree removal. This enables us to explore the interactions between forest management and the dynamics of ecological resources. The optimal rotation rule is obtained as a variation on the traditional Faustmann–Hartman equation, where an additional term captures the potential benefits derived from the growth of the ecological resource valued at its shadow price. The steady‐state solutions to the problem and sensitivity to model parameter are identified using numerical analysis.     

AN INDICATOR FOR ECOSYSTEM EXTERNALITIES IN FISHING

Ecosystem externalities arise when one use of an ecosystem affects its other uses through the production functions of the ecosystem. We use simulations with a size‐spectrum ecosystem model to investigate the ecosystem externality created by fishing of multiple species. The model is based upon general ecological principles and is calibrated to the North Sea. Two fleets are considered: a “forage fish” fleet targeting species that mature at small sizes and a “large fish” fleet targeting large piscivorous species. Based on the marginal analysis of the present value of the rent, we develop a benefit indicator that explicitly divides the consequences of fishing into internal and external benefits. This analysis demonstrates that the forage fish fleet has a notable economic impact on the large fish fleet, but the reverse is not true. The impact can be either negative or positive, which entails that for optimal economic exploitation, the forage fishery has to be adjusted according to the large fish fishery. With the present large fish fishery in the North Sea, the two fisheries are well adjusted; however, the present combined exploitation level is too high to achieve optimal economic rents.     

Dynamical analysis of a delayed singular prey–predator economic model with stochastic fluctuations

This article studies a delayed singular prey–predator economic model with stochastic fluctuations, which is described by differential‐algebraic equations due to a economic theory. Local stability and Hopf bifurcation condition are described on the delayed singular prey–predator economic model within deterministic environment. It reveals the sensitivity of the model dynamics on gestation time delay. A phenomenon of Hopf bifurcation occurs as the gestation time delay increases through a certain threshold. Subsequently, a singular stochastic prey–predator economic model with time delay is obtained by introducing Gaussian white noise terms to the above deterministic model system. The fluctuation intensity of population and harvest effort are calculated by Fourier transforms method. Numerical simulations are carried out to substantiate these theory analysis. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 19: 23–29, 2014     

Multifunctional land‐use value mapping and space type classification: A case study of Puge County,China

Land exhibits diverse functions under the combined influence of natural and human forces. A production–living–ecology functional classification system was constructed by integrating land, ecosystem, and landscape functions. The land functional value was calculated by systematically integrating ecosystem service value assessments. The primary and secondary functions, as well as combinations of different land‐use types, were determined using vertical and horizontal comparison methods. The production–living–ecology ranges were then delineated in Puge County, which is a typical mountain county in China. The production–living–ecology functions identified were well connected with the current land‐use types. The “production–living–ecology” space in Puge County showed obvious multifunctionality and agglomeration. The function identification system proposed in this paper integrated multiple methods, overcame the difficulty of direct quantitative identification of land functions. The methods used to map and quantify land function will enhance our ability to understand and model land system changes and adequately inform policies and planning. Summary for Managers

• The function valuation method constructed in this paper could be used to reflect the multifunctionality and importance of land use and provide guidance and a quantitative basis for regional development planning.
• The spatial classification results provided in this paper could offer a valuable reference for the land management department to scientifically formulate land use planning.
• Under the goal of creating a group‐type urban development pattern and constructing an ecological protection pattern in Puge County, the hotspot analysis results of this paper can provide decision‐making tools and alternative spatial plans.

     

ON THE ECONOMICS OF BIOLOGICAL INVASION: AN APPLICATION TO RECREATIONAL FISHING

Abstract The paper demonstrates four general mechanisms that may affect economically valuable species when exposed to biological invasion. We distinguish between an ecological level effect and an ecological growth effect. In addition, we present an economic quantity effect working through demand. Finally, we suggest that there is an economic quality effect that reflects the possibility that invasions affect the harvesting agents directly through demand‐side forces. For example, this may occur because the state of the original species or the ecosystem is altered. We depart from the existing literature by revealing ecological and economic forces that explain why different agents may lack incentives to control invasions. The theoretical model is illustrated by the case where escaped farmed salmon (EFS) influence wild Atlantic salmon fisheries.     

A MICROFOUNDATION OF PREDATOR‐PREY DYNAMICS

ABSTRACT. Predator‐prey relationships account for an important part of all interactions betweenspecies. In this paper we provide a microfoundation for such predator‐prey relations in afood chain. Basic entities of our analysis are representative organisms of species modeled similar to economic households. With prices as indicators of scarcity, organisms are assumed to behave as if they maximize their net biomass subject to constraints which express the organisms' risk of being preyed upon during predation. Like consumers, organisms face a ‘budget constraint’ requiring their expenditure on prey biomass not to exceed their revenue from supplying own biomass. Short‐run ecosystem equilibria are defined and derived. The net biomass acquired by the representative organism in the short term determines the positive or negative population growth. Moving short‐run equilibria constitute the dynamics of the predator‐prey relations that are characterized in numerical analysis. The population dynamics derived here turn out to differ significantly from those assumed in the standard Lotka‐Volterra model.     

Bifurcation analysis and control of a class of hybrid biological economic models

This paper systematically studies a hybrid predator–prey economic model, which is formulated by differential-difference-algebraic equations. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena at the intersampling instants. One is saddle–node bifurcation, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that economic profit may bring impulse at some critical value, i.e., rapid expansion of biological population in terms of ecological implications. On the other hand, for the sampling instants, the system undergoes Neimark–Sacker bifurcation at a critical value of economic profit, i.e., the increase of economic profit destabilizes the system and generates a unique closed invariant curve. Moreover, the state feedback controller is designed so that singular induced bifurcation and Neimark–Sacker bifurcation can be eliminated and the population can be driven to steady states by adjusting harvesting costs and the economic profit. At the same time, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here.     

A MODEL FOR THE BIOECONOMIC EVALUATION OF MARINE PROTECTED AREA SIZE AND PLACEMENT IN THE NORTH SEA

ABSTRACT. The use of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a basic management tool to limit exploitation rates in marine fisheries has been widely suggested. Models are important in predicting the consequences of management decisions and the design of monitoring programs in terms of policy goals. However, few tools are available that consider both multiple fleets and ecosystem scale dynamics. We use a new applied game theory tool, Ecoseed, that operates within a temporally and spatially explicit biomass dynamics model, Ecopath with Ecosim, to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas in the North Sea in both ecological and economic terms. The Ecoseed model builds MPAs based on the change in values of predicted economic rents of fisheries and the existence value of biomass pools in the ecosystem. We consider the market values of four fisheries operating in the North Sea: a trawl fishery, a gill net fishery, a seine fishery, and an industrial (reduction) fishery. We apply existence values, scaled such that their aggregate is similar to the total fishery value, to six biomass pools of concern: juvenile cod, haddock, whiting, saithe, seals, and the collective pool ‘Other predators’ that include marine mammals. Four policy options were considered: to maximize the rent only; to maximize the existence values only; to maximize the sum of the rent and existence values; and, finally, to maximize the sum of the rent and the existence values, but excluding only the trawl fleet from the MPA. The Ecoseed model suggests that policy goals that do not include ecological considerations can negatively impact the rents obtained by the different fishing sectors. The existence values will also be negatively impacted unless the MPA is very large. The Ecoseed model also suggests that policy goals based solely on existence values will negatively impact most fisheries. Under policy options that included ecological considerations, maximum benefits were derived from an MPA that covered 25–40% of the North Sea, placed along the southern and eastern coasts. Finally, the Ecoseed model suggests that an exclusion of the trawl fishery only from the MPA can provide small‐to‐substantial positive impacts to most species and fleets; this relative impact depends on level of interaction between the trawl fleet and the other fleets target species (e.g., through bycatch).     

FROM HARVESTING TO NONHARVESTING UTILITY: AN OPTIMAL CONTROL APPROACH TO SPECIES CONSERVATION

The purpose of this paper is to retrace the evolution of mathematical models focused on relation and interaction between economic growth, sustainable development, and natural environment conservation. First, generic defensive expenditures are introduced into a common‐property harvesting model in order to favor the species growth. Second, a transition model comprising both harvesting and nonharvesting values of wildlife biological species emerges. The latter gives rise to a group of purely nonharvesting models where anthropic activities and economic growth may have positive or negative impact on the natural evolution of wildlife species. Several scholars have proved that optimal strategies that are relatively good for harvesting purposes are not simply “transferrable” to the context of conservation of wildlife biological species with no harvesting value. In addition, the existence of optimal policies for long‐term conservation of all biological species (with or without harvesting value) cannot be guaranteed without having relatively large species populations at the initial time. Therefore, all such strategies are incapable of enhancing the scarce populations of endangered species and, therefore, cannot save these species from eventual (local) extinction. As an alternative, policymakers may soon be compelled to design and implement short‐term defensive actions aimed at recovery and enhancement of endangered wildlife species.     

THE ROLE OF GROUNDWATER‐DEPENDENT ECOSYSTEMS IN GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT

Ecosystems provide a wide range of services essential for a proper environmental, economic, and social performance. While the estimated global value of ecosystem services in 2014 is very significant, the annual loss of ecosystem services value is alarming. Our paper focuses on groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs), some very important to society, which are under threat due to groundwater overexploitation. Considering the ecosystem health/status function is essential for sound groundwater regulation policy. The paper assesses the conjunctive management of groundwater and GDEs both in theory and in a relevant case study, using a certain type of an ecosystem health function. The theoretical results demonstrate how the change in the slope values of a general ecosystem health function affects the optimal groundwater management policy. The analysis also suggests a change in groundwater management strategies as a function of the value of the ecosystem. The theoretical findings are corroborated with data from an aquifer in Spain and its associated GDE—the Tablas de Daimiel Wetland. The paper highlights theoretically and empirically the necessity for a better understanding of GDEs behavior. It calls for groundwater regulation to protect these resources.     

Robust environmental closed-loop supply chain design under uncertainty

With the fast developments in product remanufacturing to improve economic and environmental performance, an environmental closed-loop supply (ECLSC) chain is important for enterprises' competitiveness. In this paper, a robust ECLSC network is investigated which includes multiple plants, collection centers, demand zones, and products, and consists of both forward and reverse supply chains. First, a robust multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is proposed to deal with ECLSC considering two conflicting objectives simultaneously, as well as the uncertain nature of the supply chain. Cost parameters of the supply chain and demand fluctuations are subject to uncertainty. The first objective function aims to minimize the economical cost and the second objective function is to minimize the environmental influence. Then, the proposed model is solved as a single-objective mixed integer programming model applying the LP-metrics method. Finally, numerical example has been presented to test the model. The results indicate that the proposed model is applicable in practice.     

Ecological-economic modelling for the sustainable management of biodiversity

Terrestrial and marine biodiversity provides the basis for both ecosystems functioning and numerous commodities or services that underpin human well-being. From several decades, alarming trends have been reported worldwide for both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Therefore the sustainable management of biodiversity requires a double viewpoint balancing ecological conservation with the welfare of human societies. Understanding the underlying trade-offs, synergies and interactions imposes the development of interdisciplinary researches and methods. In that respect, bio-economic or ecological economic modeling is likely to play a major role. The present paper intends to elicit the key features, strengths and challenges of bio-economic approaches especially in mathematical and computational terms. It first recall the main bio-economic methods, models and decisional instruments used in these types of analyses. Then the paper shows to what extent bio-economic sustainability lies between equilibrium, viability and optimality mathematical frameworks. It ends up by identifying new major challenges among which the operationalization of ecosystem based management, the precautionary principle and the implementation of governance are especially important.     

MODELING OF A LANDLORD—TENANT AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT

A hierarchical economic–environmental model is formulated to analyze the sustainable management of farming production in a landlord–tenant system. The problem under study is interdisciplinary and combines various agricultural, economic, social, and environmental factors. To maximize profit, the landlord chooses a rental payment and the duration of a lease contract. Tenants invest into farmyard fertilizer in order to improve future crop growth and maximize their profit. It is shown that the qualitative behavior of optimal trajectories in the landlord–tenant problem is mostly affected by environmental conditions rather than by the end‐of‐horizon and delay effects. A range of model parameters is identified, where the optimal trajectory coincides with the first‐best environmentally and socially efficient solution.     

The generalized Thomas–Fermi singular boundary value problems for neutral atoms

This paper presents an upper and lower solution theory for singular boundary value problems modelling the Thomas–Fermi equation, subject to a boundary condition corresponding to the neutral atom with Bohr radius equal to its existence interval. Furthermore, we derive sufficient conditions for the existence–construction of the above‐mentioned upper–lower solutions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability of the superposition of rarefaction wave and contact discontinuity for the non‐isentropic Navier–Stokes–Poisson system

This paper is devoted to the study of the nonlinear stability of the composite wave consisting of a rarefaction wave and a viscous contact discontinuity wave of the non‐isentropic Navier–Stokes–Poisson system with free boundary. We first construct the composite wave through the quasineutral Euler equations and then prove that the composite wave is time asymptotically stable under small perturbations for the corresponding initial‐boundary value problem of the non‐isentropic Navier–Stokes–Poisson system. Only the strength of the viscous contact wave is required to be small. However, the strength of the rarefaction wave can be arbitrarily large. In our analysis, the domain decomposition plays an important role in obtaining the zero‐order energy estimates. By introducing this technique, we successfully overcome the difficulty caused by the critical terms involved with the linear term, which does not satisfy the quasineural assumption for the composite wave. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cosmic emergy based ecological systems modelling

Ecological systems modelling based on the unified biophysical measure of cosmic emergy in terms of embodied cosmic exergy is illustrated in this paper with ecological accounting, simulation and scenario analysis, by a case study for the regional socio-economic ecosystem associated with the municipality of Beijing. An urbanized regional ecosystem model with eight subsystems of natural support, agriculture, urban production, population, finance, land area, potential environmental impact, and culture is representatively presented in exergy circuit language with 12 state variables governing by corresponding ecodynamic equations, and 60 flows and auxiliary variables. To characterize the regional socio-economy as an ecosystem, a series of ecological indicators based on cosmic emergy are devised. For a systematic ecological account, cosmic exergy transformities are provided for various dimensions including climate flows, natural resources, industrial products, cultural products, population with educational hierarchy, and environmental emissions. For the urban ecosystem of Beijing in the period from 1990 to 2005, ecological accounting is carried out and characterized in full details. Taking 2000 as the starting point, systems modelling is realized to predict the urban evolution in a one hundred time horizon. For systems regulation, scenario analyses with essential policy-making implications are made to illustrate the long term systems effects of the expected water diversion and rise in energy price.     

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES FOR A MIXED‐GRAZING SCENARIO FOR AUSTRALIA'S RANGELANDS

Abstract Currently pastoralists in Australia view native mammal species as one of many variables that impact, usually negatively, on their productivity and therefore profitability. This does not necessarily have to be the case. The species with the largest impact, kangaroos, have a value that could be incorporated into their income stream as a method of both reducing risk and increasing biodiversity, and therefore increasing resilience. An investigation of the idea of optimally allocating stocking rates using techniques analogous to classical portfolio selection optimization is conducted. Using historical pricing data for beef, wool, and kangaroo meat, an efficient frontier is formed to analyze the best scenario dependent on an investors risk aversion. It is shown that there is a clear opportunity for pastoralists to benefit economically by the inclusion of kangaroos in a mixed‐grazing strategy for Australian rangelands.     

信贷扩张、生产结构与经济周期波动

本研究以信贷扩张作为经济波动的起因,通过经济体中生产结构的扭曲效应,解释2001~2015年中国经济的周期波动。使用WIOD和WIND数据库构建计量模型对所提假设进行实证检验。结果表明信贷扩张导致整个生产结构先出现不可持续的延长,并在衰退阶段缩短;就产出波动而言,高级和低级阶段都相对于中间阶段更大;但在价格指数方面,从低级阶段、中间阶段到高级阶段,波动性依次增强。总体来看,结果验证了该框架解释中国经济周期波动的适用性。     

CHARACTERIZING SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS BY PRODUCTIVITY AND MORTALITY RATES IN MULTISPECIES MODELS

Abstract The temporal change in species composition is one dimension that may be used to characterize ecosystems. Multispecies interactions and species abundance (or biomass) distributions can be analyzed by an N‐species Lotka–Volterra (LV) system of equations. We derive a statistical approximation to the stationary probability distribution of relative species biomass for a system of interacting species. The distribution is parameterized by the mean and variance of the LV species interaction coefficients and can exhibit a variety of shapes. Given this distribution, one can describe the state of the system, and subsequent perturbations within the system, in terms of shifts in the resulting stable distribution. Theoretical distributions with known properties were compared to distributions estimated from simulations and good agreement was found. Our analytical result could be used to develop “ecosystem indicators” for describing changes in the state of species within an ecosystem.