On the optimal design of insurance contracts with guarantees

The paper analyzes insurance contracts where the benefits of the insured depend on the performance of an investment strategy and which guarantee a certain interest rate on the contributions made by the insured. The insured has to decide simultaneously on the investment strategy and the guarantee scheme. For a CRRA insured and in a BS economy, the optimal combination is given by a constant mix strategy and the contribution guarantee scheme. In case the insured has a subsistence level, the CPPI strategy turns out to be optimal for arbitrary schemes. We illustrate our results by numerical examples and analyze the utility losses of a CRRA insured due to the use of a suboptimal combination of investment strategy and guarantee scheme.     

Optimal portfolio selection for general provisioning and terminal wealth problems

In Dhaene et al. (2005), multiperiod portfolio selection problems are discussed, using an analytical approach to find optimal constant mix investment strategies in a provisioning or a savings context. In this paper we extend some of these results, investigating some specific, real-life situations. The problems that we consider in the first section of this paper are general in the sense that they allow for liabilities that can be both positive or negative, as opposed to Dhaene et al. (2005), where all liabilities have to be of the same sign. Secondly, we generalize portfolio selection problems to the case where a minimal return requirement is imposed. We derive an intuitive formula that can be used in provisioning and terminal wealth problems as a constraint on the admissible investment portfolios, in order to guarantee a minimal annualized return. We apply our results to optimal portfolio selection.     

Optimal investment strategy to minimize the ruin probability of an insurance company under borrowing constraints

We consider that the surplus of an insurance company follows a Cramér-Lundberg process. The management has the possibility of investing part of the surplus in a risky asset. We consider that the risky asset is a stock whose price process is a geometric Brownian motion. Our aim is to find a dynamic choice of the investment policy which minimizes the ruin probability of the company. We impose that the ratio between the amount invested in the risky asset and the surplus should be smaller than a given positive bound a. For instance the case a=1 means that the management cannot borrow money to buy stocks.[Hipp, C., Plum, M., 2000. Optimal investment for insurers. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 27, 215-228] and [Schmidli, H., 2002. On minimizing the ruin probability by investment and reinsurance. Ann. Appl. Probab. 12, 890-907] solved this problem without borrowing constraints. They found that the ratio between the amount invested in the risky asset and the surplus goes to infinity as the surplus approaches zero, so the optimal strategies of the constrained and unconstrained problems never coincide.We characterize the optimal value function as the classical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. This equation is a second-order non-linear integro-differential equation. We obtain numerical solutions for some claim-size distributions and compare our results with those of the unconstrained case.     

Optimal investment strategies and risk measures in defined contribution pension schemes

In this paper, we derive a formula for the optimal investment allocation (derived from a dynamic programming approach) in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme whose fund is invested in n assets. We then analyse the particular case of n=2 (where we consider the presence in the market of a high-risk and a low-risk asset whose returns are correlated) and study the investment allocation and the downside risk faced by the retiring member of the DC scheme, where optimal investment strategies have been adopted. The behaviour of the optimal investment strategy is analysed when changing the disutility function and the correlation between the assets. Three different risk measures are considered in analysing the final net replacement ratios achieved by the member: the probability of failing the target, the mean shortfall and a value at risk (VaR) measure. The replacement ratios encompass the financial and annuitisation risks faced by the retiree. We consider the relationship between the risk aversion of the member and these different risk measures in order to understand better the choices confronting different categories of scheme member. We also consider the sensitivity of the results to the level of the correlation coefficient.     

A numerical method for the expected penalty-reward function in a Markov-modulated jump-diffusion process

A generalization of the Cramér-Lundberg risk model perturbed by a diffusion is proposed. Aggregate claims of an insurer follow a compound Poisson process and premiums are collected at a constant rate with additional random fluctuation. The insurer is allowed to invest the surplus into a risky asset with volatility dependent on the level of the investment, which permits the incorporation of rational investment strategies as proposed by Berk and Green (2004). The return on investment is modulated by a Markov process which generalizes previously studied settings for the evolution of the interest rate in time. The Gerber-Shiu expected penalty-reward function is studied in this context, including ruin probabilities (a first-passage problem) as a special case. The second order integro-differential system of equations that characterizes the function of interest is obtained. As a closed-form solution does not exist, a numerical procedure based on the Chebyshev polynomial approximation through a collocation method is proposed. Finally, some examples illustrating the procedure are presented.     

An improved estimation to make Markowitz’s portfolio optimization theory users friendly and estimation accurate with application on the US stock market investment

Using the Markowitz mean–variance portfolio optimization theory, researchers have shown that the traditional estimated return greatly overestimates the theoretical optimal return, especially when the dimension to sample size ratio p/n is large. Bai et al. (2009) propose a bootstrap-corrected estimator to correct the overestimation, but there is no closed form for their estimator. To circumvent this limitation, this paper derives explicit formulas for the estimator of the optimal portfolio return. We also prove that our proposed closed-form return estimator is consistent when n → ∞ and p/n → y ∈ (0, 1). Our simulation results show that our proposed estimators dramatically outperform traditional estimators for both the optimal return and its corresponding allocation under different values of p/n ratios and different inter-asset correlations ρ, especially when p/n is close to 1. We also find that our proposed estimators perform better than the bootstrap-corrected estimators for both the optimal return and its corresponding allocation. Another advantage of our improved estimation of returns is that we can also obtain an explicit formula for the standard deviation of the improved return estimate and it is smaller than that of the traditional estimate, especially when p/n is large. In addition, we illustrate the applicability of our proposed estimate on the US stock market investment.     

Analyzing surplus appropriation schemes in participating life insurance from the insurer’s and the policyholder’s perspective

This paper examines the impact of three surplus appropriation schemes often inherent in participating life insurance contracts on the insurer’s shortfall risk and the net present value from an insured’s viewpoint. (1) In case of the bonus system, surplus is used to increase the guaranteed death and survival benefit, leading to higher reserves; (2) the interest-bearing accumulation increases only the survival benefit by accumulating the surplus on a separate account; and (3) surplus can also be used to shorten the contract term, which results in an earlier payment of the survival benefit and a reduced sum of premium payments. The pool of participating life insurance contracts with death and survival benefit is modeled actuarially with annual premium payments; mortality rates are generated based on an extension of the Lee-Carter (1992) model, and the asset process follows a geometric Brownian motion. In a simulation analysis, we then compare the influence of different asset portfolios and shocks to mortality on the insurer’s risk situation and the policyholder’s net present value for the three surplus schemes. Our findings demonstrate that, even though the surplus distribution and thus the amount of surplus is calculated the same way, the type of surplus appropriation scheme has a substantial impact on the insurer’s risk exposure and the policyholder’s net present value.     

A joint valuation of premium payment and surrender options in participating life insurance contracts

In addition to an interest rate guarantee and annual surplus participation, life insurance contracts typically embed the right to stop premium payments during the term of the contract (paid-up option), to resume payments later (resumption option), or to terminate the contract early (surrender option). Terminal guarantees are on benefits payable upon death, survival and surrender. The latter are adapted after exercising the options. A model framework including these features and an algorithm to jointly value the premium payment and surrender options is presented. In a first step, the standard principles of risk-neutral evaluation are applied and the policyholder is assumed to use an economically rational exercise strategy. In a second step, option value sensitivity on different contract parameters, benefit adaptation mechanisms, and exercise behavior is analyzed numerically. The two latter are the main drivers for the option value.     

An analysis of transaction costs in participating life insurance under mean–variance preferences

Transaction costs with respect to distribution and administration play a crucial role for the performance of participating life insurance products. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of such initial and annual transaction costs on policyholder mean–variance preferences depending on the contract features, comparing a point-to-point guarantee, a cliquet-style guarantee, and a money-back guarantee with annual surplus component. We extend previous work by deriving analytical solutions for the maximum allowed initial transaction costs as well as the risk aversion parameter that ensure a given customer preference level for different contract types. We further conduct simulation analyses to identify key factors in regard to transaction costs. One main finding is that in the present setting, insurers can indeed charge higher costs for more complex products with cliquet-style features, and that the difference in costs between the various product types increases considerably in a low interest-rate environment. However, these results are heavily impacted and even reversed depending on the risk–return asset characteristics, as insurers with a riskier asset management strategy may no longer be able to charge higher transaction costs for complex products with a strong annual cliquet-style surplus participation component without reducing their attractiveness to customers.     

Optimal surrender strategies for equity-indexed annuity investors

An equity-indexed annuity (EIA) is a hybrid between a variable and a fixed annuity that allows the investor to participate in the stock market, and earn at least a minimum interest rate. The investor sacrifices some of the upside potential for the downside protection of the minimum guarantee. Because EIAs allow investors to participate in equity growth without the downside risk, their popularity has grown rapidly.An optimistic EIA owner might consider surrendering an EIA contract, paying a surrender charge, and investing the proceeds directly in the index to earn the full (versus reduced) index growth, while using a risk-free account for downside protection. Because of the popularity of these products, it is important for individuals and insurers to understand the optimal policyholder behavior.We consider an EIA investor who seeks the surrender strategy and post-surrender asset allocation strategy that maximizes the expected discounted utility of bequest. We formulate a variational inequality and a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation that govern the optimal surrender strategy and post-surrender asset allocation strategy, respectively. We examine the optimal strategies and how they are affected by the product features, model parameters, and mortality assumptions. We observe that in many cases, the “no-surrender” region is an interval (w_l,w_u); i.e., that there are two free boundaries. In these cases, the investor surrenders the EIA contract if the fund value becomes too high or too low. In other cases, there is only one free boundary; the lower (or upper) surrender threshold vanishes. In these cases, the investor holds the EIA, regardless of how low (or high) the fund value goes. For a special case, we prove a succinct and intuitive condition on the model parameters that dictates whether one or two free boundaries exist.     

道德风险影响下的保险最优投资研究

在考虑道德风险的情况下,以均值方差准则为目标研究保险人最优投资问题.假设保险盈余过程服从C-L模型,金融市场上存在一种无风险资产和一种风险资产可供投资,其中风险资产的价格过程服从几何布朗运动.在纯道德风险保险契约设计中,借鉴相关研究对努力水平和效用化努力成本的假设,量化道德风险对盈余过程的影响.在均值方差目标下,建立保险人最优投资问题的广义Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB)方程,给出保险人时间一致的均衡投资策略和价值函数.结果显示累计索赔比例参数越大,公司对最优努力水平越敏感,采取措施降低道德风险有利于公司收益提升;努力成本参数越大,公司会降低努力水平减少支出,避免损失.     

A utility-based comparison of pension funds and life insurance companies under regulatory constraints

This paper compares two different types of annuity providers, i.e. defined benefit pension funds and life insurance companies. One of the key differences is that the residual risk in pension funds is collectively borne by the beneficiaries and the sponsor’s shareholders while in the case of life insurers it is borne by the external shareholders. First, this paper employs a contingent claim approach to evaluate the risk return tradeoff for annuitants. For that, we take into account the differences in contract specifications and in regulatory regimes. Second, a welfare analysis is conducted to examine whether a consumer with power utility experiences utility gains if she chooses a defined benefit plan or a life annuity contract over a defined contribution plan. We demonstrate that regulation can be designed to support a level playing field amongst different financial institutions.     

Pricing maturity guarantee with dynamic withdrawal benefit

Motivated by the importance of withdrawal benefits for enhancing sales of variable annuities, we propose a new equity-linked product which provides a dynamic withdrawal benefit (DWB) during the contract period and a minimum guarantee at contract maturity. The term DWB is coined to reflect the duality between it and dynamic fund protection. Under the Black-Scholes framework and using results pertaining to reflected Brownian motion, we obtain explicit pricing formulas for the DWB payment stream and the maturity guarantee. These pricing formulas are also derived by means of Esscher transforms, which is another seminal contribution by Gerber to finance. In particular, we show that there are closed-form formulas for pricing European put and call options on a traded asset whose price can be modeled as the exponential of a reflected Brownian motion.     

Mathematical analysis of investment systems

Investment systems are studied using a framework that emphasize their profiles (the cumulative probability distribution on all the possible percentage gains of trades) and their log return functions (the expected average return per trade in logarithmic scale as a function of the investment size in terms of the percentage of the available capital). The efficiency index for an investment system, defined as the maximum of the log return function, is proposed as a measure to compare investment systems for their intrinsic merit. This efficiency index can be viewed as a generalization of Shannon's information rate for a communication channel. Applications are illustrated.     

Optimal consumption, investment and insurance with insurable risk for an investor in a Lévy market

Numerous researchers have applied the martingale approach for models driven by Lévy processes to study optimal investment problems. The aim of this paper is to apply the martingale approach to obtain a closed form solution for the optimal investment, consumption and insurance strategies of an individual in the presence of an insurable risk when the insurable risk and risky asset returns are described by Lévy processes and the utility is a constant absolute risk aversion (CARA). The model developed in this paper can potentially be applied to absorb large insurable losses in the absence of insurance protection and to examine the level of diminishing current utility and consumption.     

The Optimal Interaction between a Hedge Fund Manager and Investor

ABSTRACT

This study explores hedge funds from the perspective of investors and the motivation behind their investments. We model a typical hedge fund contract between an investor and a manager, which includes the manager’s special reward scheme, i.e., partial ownership, incentives and early closure conditions. We present a continuous stochastic control problem for the manager’s wealth on a hedge fund comprising one risky asset and one riskless bond as a basis to calculate the investors’ wealth. Then we derive partial differential equations (PDEs) for each agent and numerically obtain the unique viscosity solution for these problems. Our model shows that the manager’s incentives are very high and therefore investors are not receiving profit compared to a riskless investment. We investigate a new type of hedge fund contract where the investor has the option to deposit additional money to the fund at half maturity time. Results show that investors’ inflow increases proportionally with the expected rate of return of the risky asset, but even in low rates of return, investors inflow money to keep the fund open. Finally, comparing the contracts with and without the option, we spot that investors are sometimes better off without the option to inflow money, thus creating a negative value of the option.     

Investment policies and reinsurance for pension funds

A pension fund typically faces two sorts of risk. In addition to the actuarial risk, there is an investment risk stemming from the stochastic nature of the rate of return on reserves. These risks depend on the level of reinsurance and the investment policy chosen by the pension fund. The application of Borch's theorem and a result on ‘mutual funds’ make it possible for the optimal level of reinsurance and the optimal investment policy to be determined simulataneously. In particular, it turns out that a low level of reinsurance should never be combined with a cautious investment policy. In addition the paper shows how elements of capital and risk-theory can be combined in one model.     

Asset-Liability Management Under the Safety-First Principle

Under the safety-first principle (Roy in Econometrica 20:431–449, 1952), one investment goal in asset-liability (AL) management is to minimize an upper bound of the ruin probability which measures the likelihood of the final surplus being less than a given target level. We derive solutions to the safety-first AL management problem under both continuous-time and multiperiod-time settings via investigating the relationship between the safety-first AL management problem and the mean-variance AL management problem, and offer geometric interpretations. We classify investors under the safety-first principle as safety-first greedy and nongreedy investors and discuss corresponding optimal strategies for them.     

Solving knapsack problems with S-curve return functions

We consider the allocation of a limited budget to a set of activities or investments in order to maximize return from investment. In a number of practical contexts (e.g., advertising), the return from investment in an activity is effectively modeled using an S-curve, where increasing returns to scale exist at small investment levels, and decreasing returns to scale occur at high investment levels. We demonstrate that the resulting knapsack problem with S-curve return functions is NP-hard, provide a pseudo-polynomial time algorithm for the integer variable version of the problem, and develop efficient solution methods for special cases of the problem. We also discuss a fully-polynomial-time approximation algorithm for the integer variable version of the problem.     

Pyramidal values

We propose and analyze a new type of values for cooperative TU-games, which we call pyramidal values. Assuming that the grand coalition is sequentially formed, and all orderings are equally likely, we define a pyramidal value to be any expected payoff in which the entrant player receives a salary, and the rest of his marginal contribution to the just formed coalition is distributed among the incumbent players. We relate the pyramidal-type sharing scheme we propose with other sharing schemes, and we also obtain some known values by means of this kind of pyramidal procedures. In particular, we show that the Shapley value can be obtained by means of an interesting pyramidal procedure that distributes nonzero dividends among the incumbents. As a result, we obtain an alternative formulation of the Shapley value based on a measure of complementarity between two players. Finally, we introduce the family of proportional pyramidal values, in which an incumbent receives a dividend in proportion to his initial investment, measured by means of his marginal contribution.