On the increments distribution of stock prices

Abstract. In this paper, the models of increment distributions of stock price are constructed with two approaches. The first approach is based on limit theorems of random summation. The second approach is based on the statistical analysis of the increment distribution of the logarithms of stock prices.     

ARIMA模型与ARCH模型在香港股指预测方面的应用比较

由于香港金融市场易受政治或投机等因素的影响而使股价波动呈现出不确定性 ,而ARCH模型又善于描述这种不确定性 ,因而本文试图将ARCH模型和ARIMA模型在香港股指预测方面的应用进行对比 ,以期为投资者选择模型进行预测时提供参考     

多元统计在上市公司财务年报分析中的应用

文章把多元统计中的因子分析法用于分析上市公司的财务年报，从分析结果可见，这一方法是切实可行的综合分析上市公司财务年报的有效方法，并且分析结果可做为投资者参考的主要依据之一。     

Quantum modeling of nonlinear dynamics of stock prices: Bohmian approach

We use quantum mechanical methods to model the price dynamics in the financial market mathematically. We propose describing behavioral financial factors using the pilot-wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The real price trajectories are determined (via the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: the classical-like potential V (q) (“hard” market conditions) and the quantumlike potential U(q) (behavioral market conditions). Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 152, No. 2, pp. 405–415, August, 2007.     

中国股票市场收益率分布曲线的实证

股票价格行为的随机理论认为市场收益服从正态分布 ,但在现实中这一假设不一定成立 ,市场收益率更多地呈现出偏离正态分布的形式。本文检验中国市场的收益率分布形态。     

中国股市短期波动的非线性ARCH效应显著性分析及参数估计

中国股票市场受政治或其它因素的影响有自己的波动特点。本文利用拉格朗日乘子,选择不同的频率检验中国股票市场短期的ARCH效应的显著性,并用FGLS四步法进行非线性估计。结果表明:中国股票市场在选择适当的频率下,短期的ARCH效应是显著的,对于研究中国股票市场的成熟度,预测股票短期投资风险,规范中国股票市场发展等具有重要的意义。     

因子分析在股票评价中的应用

本文运用SAS软件,对沪市604家上市公司2001年财务报表中的十个主要财务指标进行了因子分析,并将这十个指标归结为三个因子,每个因子都有特定的含义。最后,根据每个股票的三个因子得分情况对该股票作出综合评价。     

An investigation of stock price dynamics in emerging markets

The emergence of stock markets in former centrally planned economies poses a significant problem to financial economists and policy makers in that price movements in these markets are not well explained by conventional capital theory. The opening of stock markets brings about a new equilibrium value P̂ for the firm. Shares are floated on an estimate of P̂, and buyers of these shares and individuals trading in the secondary market are also obliged to do so on the basis of their estimates of this magnitude. At any time, the market price of the firm's shares then reflects the market's best guess of what its value would be in the new equilibrium, and information on which to calculate estimates become more readily available as the stock market matures. This paper presents a stochastic price model which takes all of these factors into consideration. The model also provides a theoretical foundation underlying the pronounced trends of prices in emerging stock markets, and explains why they appear to be so volatile. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于小波分析的ARIMA模型对上证指数的分析与预测

股票价格的预测一直受到广泛关注,其预测方法虽然很多,但是往往存在预测精度有限、容易陷入局部极小等问题.为了提高股票价格预测的准确性,提出了基于小波分析的A砒MA模型的股票价格预测方法,同时利用该方法对上证指数收盘价的月平均值进行实例分析,并与其他方法的预测结果进行了比较,结果表明了提出方法的有效性.     

基于小波神经网络与ARIMA组合模型在股票预测中的应用

为了实现对股票价格变化的短期预测,提出了一种基于小波神经网络(WNN)与自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)的组合预测模型.将股票的收盘价序列数据划分为线性以及非线性(误差项)两个部分,分别利用统计学中ARIMA模型和小波神经网络分别对两部分数据进行预测并得到结果,将两部分结果组合相加合成为整个股票价格的预测结果.实验结果表明该组合模型在预测精度方面有提高,是一种比较有效的预测模型.     

统计物理学在证券市场多重分形特性研究中的应用

自经济物理学这一新的交叉学科诞生以来,许多从事物理学研究的学者将物理学的知识应用于经济学和金融学领域,取得了许多可喜的研究成果.本文深入分析了我国上海证券市场价格波动的多重分形特性,将序参量的概念引入金融工程领域,刨新性地提出了将广义维数D_q和广义赫斯特指数h(q)作为序参量,并初步分析了其所遵循的变化规律.这为探索证券市场价格波动的微观动力学规律、顶测股市风险提供了实证基础和理论基础.     

An EOQ model for salesmen’s initiatives, stock and price sensitive demand of similar products - A dynamical system

The paper deals with an inventory model to determine the retailer’s optimal order quantity for similar products. It is assumed that the amount of display space is limited and the demand of the products depends on the display stock level where more stock of one product makes a negative impression of the another product. Besides it, the demand rate is also dependent on selling price and salesmen’s initiatives. Also, the replenishment rate depends on the level of stock of the items. The objective of the model is to maximize the profit function, including the effect of inflation and time value of money by Pontryagin’s Maximal Principles. The stability analysis of the concerned dynamical system has been done analytically.     

沪深股票市场之间波动性影响关系研究

以对沪深两市波动性指标的解构分析为基础,给出了基于GRACH模型、Granger模型的综合运用,同时引入协整检验和误差纠正机制的均衡分析方法,对沪深两市的波动相关性进行实证分析和模型检验,系统性揭示了沪深两市波动性的关键特征和沪深两市波动互相影响的因果规律,为基于沪深两市金融资产的定价和风险管理奠定了基础.     

A unified approach to the modelling of holonomic and nonholonomic mechanical systems

An alternative technique, called projection method, for solving constrained system problems is presented. This approach can be used to derive equations of motion of both holonomic and nonholonomic systems, and the dynamic equations can be expressed in generalized velocities and/or quasi-velocities. Compared against the other methods of classical mechanics (Lagrange's, Gibbs-Appell, Kane's,...), the present method turns out to be extraordinarily short, elementary and general. As such, it deserves to be promoted as a generally accepted method in academic and engineering applications. Three examples are reported to illustrate advantages of the technique     

机械抽样在林业伐区蓄积量调查中的应用

本文叙述了过去林业伐区木材蓄积量调查的一般概况。在学生生产实习中采用了机械抽样方法进行木材蓄积量调查，结果表明，该方法缩短调查时间，降低生产成本，效果较好     

The impact of price skimming on supply and exit decisions

Stochastic inventory control theory has focused on the order and/or pricing policy when the length of the selling period is known. In contrast to this focus, we examine the optimal length of the selling period—which we refer to as market exit time—in the context of a novel inventory replenishment problem faced by a supplier of a new, trendy, and relatively expensive product with a short life cycle. An important characteristic of the problem is that the supplier applies a price skimming strategy over time and the demand is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with an intensity that is dependent on time. The supplier's problems of finding the optimal order quantity and market exit time, with the objective of maximizing expected profit, is studied. Procedures are proposed for joint optimization of the objective function with respect to the order quantity and the market exit time. Then, the effects of the order quantity and market exit time on the supplier's profitability are explored on the basis of a quantitative investigation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于复杂网络的沪深300股票重要节点的评估和分析

利用复杂网络方法将股票之间的复杂关系抽象为网络,能够更好地掌握股票市场的整体和局部特性以及股票之间内在的联动关系,以沪深300数据为研究样本,通过相关系数构建网络,利用最佳阈值法对网络进行去噪,保留主要股票之间的相互影响.借鉴PageRank算法对社团网络进行重要节点的挖掘,从宏观和微观视角分析各行业股票在市场中的地位.研究发现整个沪深300市场中,采矿业、制造业和金融业是市场"大户",其股票与市场中的其他股票之间存在紧密联系;网络中的同类型股票存在聚集现象,且股票之间影响关系显著.     

Use of words and visuals in modelling context of annual plant

This study looks at the various verbal and non-verbal representations used in a process of modelling the number of annual plants over time. Analysis focuses on how various representations such as words, diagrams, letters and mathematical equations evolve in the mathematization process of the modelling context. Our results show that (1) visual representations such as flowcharts are used not only in the process to symbolization, but also used in the justification of symbols, (2) some of the visual representations serve as a bridge between the words in the problem context and the symbols that represent the mathematical equations of the number of annual plants and (3) words and context help to introduce visual representations and symbols. Also, once students come up with the visual representations and symbols, they show better understanding about words used in the problem context. These observations imply that the modelling and mathematization process is not just one-directional and linear from words describing real-life situations to the symbols in mathematical equations and expressions. Rather, the mathematization can be promoted through using other visuals that help make this transition smooth by organizing the given information in a way that can be used towards mathematization.     

Computational modelling of slug flow in a capillary microreactor

The benefits of slug flow capillary microreactor exhibit the ability to adjust two individual transport mechanisms, i.e., convection inside the slug and diffusion between two consecutive slugs. The mass transfer rate is enhanced by internal circulation, which arises due to the shear between slug axis and continuous phase or capillary wall. The knowledge of circulation patterns within the slug plays an important role in the design of a capillary microreactor. Apart from this, well defined slug flow generation is a key activity in the development of methodology to study hydrodynamics and mass transfer. In the present paper we discuss computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling aspects of internal circulations (single phase) and slug flow generation (two-phase).     

Comparison of socially optimal and profit maximizing prices in an unobservable queue with heterogeneous waiting costs

We consider a general unobservable queueing model in which customers are allowed to join or balk upon arrival. The service provider charges the same admission fee to all joining customers. All joining customers receive the same reward and incur heterogeneous waiting cost rates. We show that the socially optimal arrival rate is greater than or equal to the profit maximizing arrival rate. Equivalently, the socially optimal admission fee is smaller than or equal to the profit maximizing admission fee.