Temporal aggregation in structural VAR models

This paper examines the effects of temporal aggregation on the estimated time series properties of economic data. Theory predicts that temporal aggregation loses information about the underlying data processes. We derive low frequency, quarterly and annual, models implied by high frequency, monthly, structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models and we find that these losses in information are substantial. It is shown that the accuracy of both the estimates and the forecasts of this class of models improve substantially when monthly data are used. Moreover, the aggregated data show more long-run persistence than the underlying disaggregated data. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aggregation of ordinal information

Our interest is with the fusion of information which has an ordinal structure. Information fusion in this environment requires the availability of ordinal aggregation operations. Basic ordinal operations are first introduced. Next we investigate conjunctive and disjunction aggregations of ordinal information. The idea of a pseudo-log in the ordinal environment is presented. We discuss the introduction of a zero like point on an ordinal scale along with the related ideas of bipolarity (positive and negative values) and uni-norm aggregation operators. We introduce mean like aggregation operators as well weighted averages on a ordinal scale. The problem of selecting between ordinal models is considered.     

Determining appropriate levels of data aggregation in a linear programming model

LP models as aids to annual budgeting are often too large to be economically viable unless they employ some form of aggregation. The degree of aggregation is usually determined informally and/or intuitively when the formulation is developed. This note describes some experiments and results with a model where the level of aggregation in the generated LP may be controlled by user-supplied parameter values. The effect of various aggregation levels may then be investigated in a straightforward, explicit manner while the model is still being developed. The information thus gained may serve as a guide to the most appropriate aggregation level for any particular subsequent planning use of the model. The approach adopted here for annual budgeting may prove practical and useful in other application areas where the main disadvantage expected of an otherwise satisfactory LP formulation is the size of the LP model and consequent excessive computing time required.     

基于目标信息系统学习的多准则决策方法

给出目标信息系统学习的多准则决策方法，建立多准则决策的规则学习模型，讨论该模型的性质。该模型优于Z．Pawlak方法，将规则提取与信息融合为一体。也优于AHP等模型，具有简洁性．通过实例计算，取得了满意结果。     

Fuzzy prioritized operators and their application to multiple attribute group decision making

In this paper, we investigate the triangular fuzzy multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problem in which the attributes and experts are in different priority level. Motivated by the ideal of prioritized aggregation operators (R.R. Yager, Prioritized aggregation operators, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 48 (2008) 263–274.), we develop some prioritized aggregation operators for aggregating triangular fuzzy information, and then apply them to develop some models for triangular fuzzy multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems in which the attributes and experts are in different priority level. Finally, a practical example about talent introduction is given to verify the developed approach and to demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness.     

An aggregation framework based on coherent lower previsions: Application to Zadeh’s paradox and sensor networks

The problem of aggregating two or more sources of information containing knowledge about a common domain is considered. We propose an aggregation framework for the case where the available information is modelled by coherent lower previsions, corresponding to convex sets of probability mass functions. The consistency between aggregated beliefs and sources of information is discussed. A closed formula, which specializes our rule to a particular class of models, is also derived. Two applications consisting in a possible explanation of Zadeh’s paradox and an algorithm for estimation fusion in sensor networks are finally reported.     

Aggregation error for location models: survey and analysis

Location problems occurring in urban or regional settings may involve many tens of thousands of “demand points,” usually individual private residences. In modeling such problems it is common to aggregate demand points to obtain tractable models. We survey aggregation approaches to a large class of location models, consider and compare various aggregation error measures, identify some effective (and ineffective) aggregation error measures, and discuss some open research areas.     

Fusing multiple Bayesian knowledge sources

We address the problem of information fusion in uncertain environments. Imagine there are multiple experts building probabilistic models of the same situation and we wish to aggregate the information they provide. There are several problems we may run into by naively merging the information from each. For example, the experts may disagree on the probability of a certain event or they may disagree on the direction of causality between two events (e.g., one thinks A causes B while another thinks B causes A). They may even disagree on the entire structure of dependencies among a set of variables in a probabilistic network. In our proposed solution to this problem, we represent the probabilistic models as Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs) and propose an algorithm called Bayesian knowledge fusion that allows the fusion of multiple BKBs into a single BKB that retains the information from all input sources. This allows for easy aggregation and de-aggregation of information from multiple expert sources and facilitates multi-expert decision making by providing a framework in which all opinions can be preserved and reasoned over.     

A Priori and A Posteriori Aggregation Procedures to Reduce Model Size in MIP Mine Planning Models

Mine planning models have proved to be very effective in supporting decisions on sequencing the extraction of material in copper mines. These models have been developed for CODELCO, the Chilean state copper mine and used successfully. Here, we wish to develop a corporate model, including all mines of CODELCO. The original models are extremely large MIPs. In order to run a global model, the original models need to be reduced significantly. We develop an approach to aggregate the models. The aggregation is done both on the original data of the mine as well as on the MIP original models. The aggregation is based on clustering analysis. Promising results were obtained with data of a large underground mine.     

考虑评价信息满意度的群体信息集结方法研究

信息集结方法是群体评价的重要研究内容,针对该问题本文对评价信息满意度进行测度,并基于此对群体信息的集结方法展开研究。该方法根据指标信息的变化赋予评价者不同的权重,以改变现有研究中评价者权重大多固定不变的做法,旨在使群体信息集结的结果更加公正和准确。首先对问题进行界定并给出评价信息满意度的定义;然后分别给出先验信息满意度和评价过程中的信息满意度的确定方法,利用先验信息满意度确定各评价者的初始权重,并利用评价过程中的信息满意度对其修正,从而得到各评价者的权重矩阵。最后,按照各评价者的评价信息满意度对群体评价信息进行集结。     

外源投入型两阶段制造系统网络DEA效率分析研究

制造过程评价是改善制造系统效率的重要一环,传统的评价方法将每个制造系统决策单元视为黑箱来研究整体效率,忽略了中间产品转化信息及投入要素在各子过程中的配置信息。针对两阶段(第二阶段有外源性新投入)制造系统的效率评估问题,分别在固定规模报酬和可变规模报酬假设下,充分利用制造系统中间产品的转化及外源投入要素的配置信息,建立了制造系统网络DEA效率测度及分解模型,建模方法遵循客观评价原则,无需事先主观确定子效率和系统效率之间的组合关系。并将其应用于钢铁制造系统效率测度与分解,研究结果表明该方法能够挖掘决策单元内部子单元的效率情况,帮助决策者发现复杂制造过程非有效的根源,为复杂制造过程的整体效率测度及分解提供了有效的分析方法。     

Group decision making based on intuitionistic multiplicative aggregation operators

Preference relations are the most common techniques to express decision maker’s preference information over alternatives or criteria. To consistent with the law of diminishing marginal utility, we use the asymmetrical scale instead of the symmetrical one to express the information in intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations, and introduce a new kind of preference relation called the intuitionistic multiplicative preference relation, which contains two parts of information describing the intensity degrees that an alternative is or not priority to another. Some basic operations are introduced, based on which, an aggregation principle is proposed to aggregate the intuitionistic multiplicative preference information, the desirable properties and special cases are further discussed. Choquet Integral and power average are also applied to the aggregation principle to produce the aggregation operators to reflect the correlations of the intuitionistic multiplicative preference information. Finally, a method is given to deal with the group decision making based on intuitionistic multiplicative preference relations.     

基于灰色关联法和HA算子的Pythagorean模糊群决策方法

针对Pythagorean模糊群决策问题,提出一种基于Pythagorean模糊混合平均算子的决策方法。首先,提出一种基于Pythagorean模糊信息及其运算法则的Pythagorean模糊混合平均算子;其次,构建一种基于最大熵模型的属性位置权重定权方法,同时根据灰色关联方法提出一种属性客观权重计算方法,进而获得Pythagorean模糊混合平均算子的定权方法;利用Pythagorean模糊混合平均算子对单决策者信息进行融合,通过Pythagorean模糊加权平均算子对各专家信息进行融合,并依据得分函数与精确函数进行排序择优;最后,通过一个算例说明该方法的有效性和可行性。     

Committees,sequential voting and transparency

We propose a model of sequential voting in committees, where members use their individual votes to signal high efficiency in their bid to become re-appointed. Transparency precludes efficient information aggregation, and thus decreases the utility of the principal in the first period; it may be beneficial to her in the second period. Under transparency, equilibria under sequential voting always differ from those under simultaneous voting and may lead to more or less efficient information aggregation.     

Cross-efficiency aggregation in DEA models using the evidential-reasoning approach

Cross-efficiency in data envelopment analysis (DEA) models is an effective way to rank decision-making units (DMUs). The common methods to aggregate cross-efficiency do not consider the preference structure of the decision maker (DM). When a DM’s preference structure does not satisfy the “additive independence” condition, a new aggregation method must be proposed. This paper uses the evidential-reasoning (ER) approach to aggregate the cross-efficiencies obtained from cross-evaluation through the transformation of the cross-efficiency matrix to pieces of evidence. This paper provides a new method for cross-efficiency aggregation and a new way for DEA models to reflect a DM’s preference or value judgments. Additionally, this paper presents examples that demonstrate the features of cross-efficiency aggregation using the ER approach, including an empirical example of the evaluation practice of 16 basic research institutes in Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in 2010 that illustrates how the ER approach can be used to aggregate the cross-efficiency matrix produced from DEA models.     

Temporal hierarchies with autocorrelation for load forecasting

We propose four different estimators that take into account the autocorrelation structure when reconciling forecasts in a temporal hierarchy. Combining forecasts from multiple temporal aggregation levels exploits information differences and mitigates model uncertainty, while reconciliation ensures a unified prediction that supports aligned decisions at different horizons. In previous studies, weights assigned to the forecasts were given by the structure of the hierarchy or the forecast error variances without considering potential autocorrelation in the forecast errors. Our first estimator considers the autocovariance matrix within each aggregation level. Since this can be difficult to estimate, we propose a second estimator that blends autocorrelation and variance information, but only requires estimation of the first-order autocorrelation coefficient at each aggregation level. Our third and fourth estimators facilitate information sharing between aggregation levels using robust estimates of the cross-correlation matrix and its inverse. We compare the proposed estimators in a simulation study and demonstrate their usefulness through an application to short-term electricity load forecasting in four price areas in Sweden. We find that by taking account of auto- and cross-covariances when reconciling forecasts, accuracy can be significantly improved uniformly across all frequencies and areas.     

航空维修信息系统的一种事前评价方法

融合目标规划、网络分析法和集结算子,提出一种航空维修信息系统的事前评价方法.用目标规划处理资源约束,用网络分析法处理相关性,用集结算子将评价者的评价信息集结成群评价信息.选择诱导有序加权欧氏平均算子作为集结算子,并与已有的诱导有序加权调和平均算子、诱导有序加权几何平均算子、诱导有序加权平均算子三种算子进行了对比,结果表明新算子的有效性.给出保序条件下数据分量的可变范围.     

Value differences using second-order distributions

Most decision models for handling vague and imprecise information are unnecessarily restrictive since they do not admit for discrimination between different beliefs in different values. This is true for classical utility theory as well as for the various interval methods that have prevailed. To allow for more refined estimates, we suggest a framework designed for evaluating decision situations considering beliefs in sets of epistemically possible utility and probability functions, as well as relations between them. The various beliefs are expressed using different kinds of belief distributions. We show that the use of such distributions allows for representation principles not requiring too hard data aggregation, but still admitting efficient evaluation of decision situations.     

An avoiding information loss approach to group decision making

Owing to the increasing complexity in various management, aggregating experts’ knowledge and experiences to make an appropriate decision is an important research area. However, with aggregation of information in decision process, some information may be lost. The aim of this paper is to present a systematic methodology avoiding information loss for group decision making. An extended TOPSIS method is twice used to the current method, which is first used to determine the weights of decision makers, and second used to rank the preference order of alternatives. The proposed approach is straightforward and has no aggregation of information. A comparison of proposed method with other methods is also done. Finally, a numerical example for supplier selection is given to illustrate the application of the introduced method.