The net Bayes premium with dependence between the risk profiles

In Bayesian analysis it is usual to assume that the risk profiles Θ₁ and Θ₂ associated with the random variables “number of claims” and “amount of a single claim”, respectively, are independent. A few studies have addressed a model of this nature assuming some degree of dependence between the two random variables (and most of these studies include copulas). In this paper, we focus on the collective and Bayes net premiums for the aggregate amount of claims under a compound model assuming some degree of dependence between the random variables Θ₁ and Θ₂. The degree of dependence is modelled using the Sarmanov–Lee family of distributions [Sarmanov, O.V., 1966. Generalized normal correlation and two-dimensional Frechet classes. Doklady (Soviet Mathematics) 168, 596–599 and Ting-Lee, M.L., 1996. Properties and applications of the Sarmanov family of bivariate distributions. Communications Statistics: Theory and Methods 25 (6) 1207–1222], which allows us to study the impact of this assumption on the collective and Bayes net premiums. The results obtained show that a low degree of correlation produces Bayes premiums that are highly sensitive.     

Positive definite symmetric functions on finite dimensional spaces. I. Applications of the Radon transform

An n-dimensional random vector X is said (Cambanis, S., Keener, R., and Simons, G. (1983). J. Multivar. Anal., 13 213–233) to have an α-symmetric distribution, α > 0, if its characteristic function is of the form φ(|ξ₁|^α + … + |ξ_n|^α). Using the Radon transform, integral representations are obtained for the density functions of certain absolutely continuous α-symmetric distributions. Series expansions are obtained for a class of apparently new special functions which are encountered during this study. The Radon transform is also applied to obtain the densities of certain radially symmetric stable distributions on ⁿ. A new class of “zonally” symmetric stable laws on ⁿ is defined, and series expansions are derived for their characteristic functions and densities.     

Family of multivariate generalized t distributions

In this paper, we introduce a new family of multivariate distributions as the scale mixture of the multivariate power exponential distribution introduced by Gómez et al. (Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 27(3) (1998) 589) and the inverse generalized gamma distribution. Since the resulting family includes the multivariate t distribution and the multivariate generalization of the univariate GT distribution introduced by McDonald and Newey (Econometric Theory 18 (11) (1988) 4039) we call this family as the “multivariate generalized t-distributions family”, or MGT for short. We show that this family of distributions belongs to the elliptically contoured distributions family, and investigate the properties. We give the stochastic representation of a random variable distributed as a multivariate generalized t distribution. We give the marginal distribution, the conditional distribution and the distribution of the quadratic forms. We also investigate the other properties, such as, asymmetry, kurtosis and the characteristic function.     

Multilinear forms and measures of dependence between random variables

Based on an idea of Rosenblatt, the methods of interpolation theory are used to establish moment inequalities and equivalence relations for measures of dependence between two or more families of random variables. A couple of “interpolation” theorems proved here appear to be new.     

Addendum to the Paper “The Generalized Integer Gamma Distribution—A Basis for Distributions in Multivariate Statistics”

A brief remark on the paper “The Generalized Integer Gamma Distribution— A Basis for Distributions in Multivariate Statistics,” (1998,J. Multivariate Anal.64, 86–102) and an additional result concerning the distribution of the product of some particular independent beta random variables, which broadens the scope of the results in that paper, are presented.     

Mean residual life order of convolutions of heterogeneous exponential random variables

In this paper, we study convolutions of heterogeneous exponential random variables with respect to the mean residual life order. By introducing a new partial order (reciprocal majorization order), we prove that this order between two parameter vectors implies the mean residual life order between convolutions of two heterogeneous exponential samples. For the 2-dimensional case, it is shown that there exists a stronger equivalence. We discuss, in particular, the case when one convolution involves identically distributed variables, and show in this case that the mean residual life order is actually associated with the harmonic mean of parameters. Finally, we derive the “best gamma bounds” for the mean residual life function of any convolution of exponential distributions under this framework.     

Trimmed estimates in simultaneous estimation of parameters in exponential families

Let X₁,…, X_p be p (≥ 3) independent random variables, where each X_i has a distribution belonging to the one-parameter exponential family of distributions. The problem is to estimate the unknown parameters simultaneously in the presence of extreme observations. C. Stein (Ann. Statist.9 (1981), 1135–1151) proposed a method of estimating the mean vector of a multinormal distribution, based on order statistics corresponding to the |X_i|'s, which permitted improvement over the usual maximum likelihood estimator, for long-tailed empirical distribution functions. In this paper, the ideas of Stein are extended to the general discrete and absolutely continuous exponential families of distributions. Adaptive versions of the estimators are also discussed.     

CUSUM test for general nonlinear integer-valued GARCH models: comparison study

This study considers the problem of testing a parameter change in general nonlinear integer-valued time series models where the conditional distribution of current observations is assumed to follow a one-parameter exponential family. We consider score-, (standardized) residual-, and estimate-based CUSUM tests and show that their limiting null distributions take the form of the functions of Brownian bridges. Based on the obtained results, we then conduct a comparison study of the performance of CUSUM tests through the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Our findings demonstrate that the standardized residual-based CUSUM test largely outperforms the others.

     

Random creation and dispersion of mass

Consider evolution of density of a mass or a population, geographically situated in a compact region of space, assuming random creation-annihilation and migration, or dispersion of mass, so the evolution is a random measure. When the creation-annihilation and dispersion are diffusions the situation is described formally by a stochastic partial differential equation; ignoring dispersion make approximations to the initial density by atomic measures and if the corresponding discrete random measures converge “in law” to a unique random measure call it a solution. To account for dispersion Trotter's product formula is applied to semiflows corresponding to dispersion and creation-annihilation. Existence of solutions has been a conjecture for several years despite a claim in ([2], J. Multivariate Anal. 5, 1–52). We show that solutions exist and that non-deterministic solutions are “smeared” continuous-state branching diffusions.     

The Construction of Multivariate Distributions from Markov Random Fields

We address the problem of constructing and identifying a valid joint probability density function from a set of specified conditional densities. The approach taken is based on the development of relations between the joint and the conditional densities using Markov random fields (MRFs). We give a necessary and sufficient condition on the support sets of the random variables to allow these relations to be developed. This condition, which we call the Markov random field support condition, supercedes a common assumption known generally as the positivity condition. We show how these relations may be used in reverse order to construct a valid model from specification of conditional densities alone. The constructive process and the role of conditions needed for its application are illustrated with several examples, including MRFs with multiway dependence and a spatial beta process.     

Likelihood-Based Local Polynomial Fitting for Single-Index Models

The parametric generalized linear model assumes that the conditional distribution of a response Y given a d-dimensional covariate X belongs to an exponential family and that a known transformation of the regression function is linear in X. In this paper we relax the latter assumption by considering a nonparametric function of the linear combination β^TX, say η₀(β^TX). To estimate the coefficient vector β and the nonparametric component η₀ we consider local polynomial fits based on kernel weighted conditional likelihoods. We then obtain an estimator of the regression function by simply replacing β and η₀ in η₀(β^TX) by these estimators. We derive the asymptotic distributions of these estimators and give the results of some numerical experiments.     

A load share model for non-identical components of a k-out-of-m system

We consider a k-out-of-m load sharing system when the lifetimes of the components are not necessarily identically distributed random variables. For such systems, a model for the load sharing phenomenon through the exponentiated conditional survival functions of ordered failure times is proposed. This model is more general than the load sharing model with identically distributed component lifetimes and leads to a different family of distributions for ordered random variables. A general expression for the reliability of the system is given. The computations of the reliability for a two component parallel load sharing system corresponding to the exponential and Weibull distributions are discussed. For illustrative purpose, we discuss the inference procedures for a two component parallel load sharing system corresponding to the exponential distributions. A simulation study is carried out to assess the proposed estimation and testing procedures. The applicability of the proposed load sharing model is shown through two data sets.     

Tail dependence of random variables from ARCH and heavy-tailed bilinear models

Discussed in this paper is the dependent structure in the tails of distributions of random variables from some heavy-tailed stationary nonlinear time series. One class of models discussed is the first-order autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) process introduced by Engle (1982). The other class is the simple first-order bilinear models driven by heavy-tailed innovations. We give some explicit formulas for the asymptotic values of conditional probabilities used for measuring the tail dependence between two random variables from these models. Our results have significant meanings in finance.     

Some Asymptotic Formulae for Gaussian Distributions

This paper considers asymptotic expansions of certain expectations which appear in the theory of large deviation for Gaussian random vectors with values in a separable real Hilbert space. A typical application is to calculation of the “tails” of distributions of smooth functionals,p(r)=P{Φ(r⁻¹ξ)0},r→∞, e.g., the probability that a centered Gaussian random vector hits the exterior of a large sphere surrounding the origin. The method provides asymptotic formulae for the probability itself and not for its logarithm in a situation, where it is natural to expect thatp(r)=c′r^D exp{−c″r²}. Calculations are based on a combination of the method of characteristic functionals with the Laplace method used to find asymptotics of integrals containing a fast decaying function with “small” support.     

The practice of Delta–Gamma VaR: Implementing the quadratic portfolio model

This paper intends to critically evaluate state-of-the-art methodologies for calculating the value-at-risk (VaR) of non-linear portfolios from the point of view of computational accuracy and efficiency. We focus on the quadratic portfolio model, also known as “Delta–Gamma”, and, as a working assumption, we model risk factor returns as multi-normal random variables. We present the main approaches to Delta–Gamma VaR weighing their merits and accuracy from an implementation-oriented standpoint. One of our main conclusions is that the Delta–Gamma-Normal VaR may be less accurate than even Delta VaR. On the other hand, we show that methods that essentially take into account the non-linearity (hence gammas and third or higher moments) of the portfolio values may present significant advantages over full Monte Carlo revaluations. The role of non-diagonal terms in the Gamma matrix as well as the sensitivity to correlation is considered both for accuracy and computational effort. We also qualitatively examine the robustness of Delta–Gamma methodologies by considering a highly non-quadratic portfolio value function.     

A Multivariate CLT for Decomposable Random Vectors with Finite Second Moments

Stein's method is used to derive a CLT for dependent random vectors possessing the dependence structure from Barbour et al. J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 47, 125–145, but under the assumption of second moments only. This allows us to derive Lindeberg–Feller type theorems for sums of random vectors with certain dependence structures. We apply the main theorem to the study of three problems: local dependence, random graph degree statistics and finite population statistics. In particular, we consider U-statistics of independent observations as well as of observations drawn without replacement.     

A covariance inequality under a two-part dependence assumption

A covariance inequality is proved under a certain “two-part” dependence assumption. It generalizes and sharpens, with a simpler and more transparent proof, two earlier covariance inequalities used in central limit theory under certain “two-part” strong mixing assumptions.     

On Domains of Attraction of Multivariate Extreme Value Distributions under Absolute Continuity

The paper gives sufficient conditions for domains of attraction of multivariate extreme value distributions. Under the assumption of absolute continuity of a multivariate distribution, the criteria enable one to examine, by using limits of some rescaled conditional densities, whether the distribution belongs to the domain of attraction of some multivariate extreme value distribution. If this is the case, the criteria also determine how to construct such an extreme value distribution. Unlike the criterion given by de Haan and Resnick [1987,Stochastic Process. Appl.2583–93], the criteria are easily applicable even when the marginal tails are not Pareto-like.