光谱技术与反刍动物甲烷排放的精确监测

目前所公布的反刍动物CH₄排放量仅是一个估计值,因为影响反刍动物CH₄排放的因素较多,使目前所应用的动物CH₄排放监测技术都存在较大的不确定性。被发展起来的监测CH₄排放的方法都不能准确的监测反刍动物CH₄的排放量和动态,不同的测定方法所得结果差异较大,反刍动物CH₄排放的精确监测是一个较难的技术问题。相比而言,光谱技术监测反刍动物CH₄排放是近年来发展较快、测试结果准确的技术手段。采用改进的红外光谱CH₄测量系统,激光技术和近红外光谱传感系统可以实现反刍动物在舍饲条件下及自然放牧状态下CH₄排放动态、排放量的精确监测。因此光谱技术是反刍动物CH₄监测前沿技术,对精确预测动物CH₄排放,提出减排方案具有重要作用。     

Global warming is driven by anthropogenic emissions: a time series analysis approach

The solar influence on global climate is nonstationary. Processes such as the Schwabe and Gleissberg cycles of the Sun, or the many intrinsic atmospheric oscillation modes, yield a complex pattern of interaction with multiple time scales. In addition, emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, or volcanic dust perturb the dynamics of this coupled system to different and still uncertain extents. Here we show, using two independent driving force reconstruction techniques, that the combined effect of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions has been the main external driver of global climate during the past decades.     

全球变暖背景下温室效应的光谱能量分布分析

利用一维辐射传递方程及LBLRTM逐线积分模式建立计算模型,对工业革命前与目前大气构成情况下温室效应的能量分布及其光谱吸收机理进行分析,在保持温室气体浓度为当前水平的基础上,研究温室效应能量分布与地表温度之间的相互耦合机理.结果表明:工业革命前地球的温暖环境主要来自于大气温室气体的(100~370)cm^-1、(640~710)cm^-1以及(1370~2000)cm^-1三个强吸收带对于地球长波辐射的吸收,而地球当前的变暖则源自于大气的(370~640)cm^-1和(710~1370)cm^-1两个弱吸收带的作用,其对工业革命以来所额外增加的温室效应贡献分别达到了25%和55%;地表温度升高,温室效应在全波段范围内也会随之增强,但不同谱带处的温室效应贡献以地球平均温度所对应的辐射峰值波数为界线,峰值波数右侧的温室效应贡献将会增加,在其左侧的贡献比例则会减小.     

Radiative forcing of aerosols and gases over tropical ocean and its impact on the global atmospheric environment: GCM investigations during INDOEX campaigns

Radiative forcings due to aerosols and the pollutant gases accumulated as haze which are transported from nearby continent to the tropical ocean are essentially important elements of the world climate system. Vertical transport of aerosols and gaseous species takes place within the deep convective cloud clusters of the inter-tropical convergence zone and subsequently these are distributed by the upper atmospheric zonal wind flow, thereby have impact on the global atmospheric environment. The comprehensive global atmospheric models have shown capability of simulating the climate of the atmosphere with proper forcing. We have deduced the radiative forcing, optical depth and the global energy balance components by a global atmospheric model. The results are validated well with INDOEX and other available observational findings.     

Climate transitions on long timescales

The climate has changed through the history of the Earth as evidenced in the geological records. Today we might be experiencing a climate change of the same magnitude as the transition into an ice age caused by very rapid burning and emission to the atmosphere of a substantial part of the fossilised carbon. Whether this leads to a gradual warming or if we will experience a transition into a different climatic state is presently unknown. The present day state-of-the-art numerical climate models are capable of producing fair representations of the current climate and are as such trusted to also predict the climate changes due to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. However, the models are not presently capable of reproducing the rapid transitions from one climatic state, such as a glacial climate, into another, such as the present climate. The reason for this is unknown. The transitions are inherently ‘non-linear’ and thus not accessible through linear response theory. The term ‘non-linear’ is in this context defined as the phenomenon that the response of the system to a change in the forcing of the system is not linearly proportional to the forcing. This would happen if a threshold is reached such that the state of the system becomes unstable and the system bifurcates into a different state. There are strong indications in the geological records of this kind of behaviour for the climate. These dynamics can be understood in the context of fairly simple models of the climate.     

Climate engineering: A critical review of approaches to modify the global energy balance

Besides mitigation and adaptation, climate engineering, i.e. the large scale manipulation of the climate system has recently been promoted as a third strategy to combat the unwanted consequences of anthropogenic climate change. In this contribution, we address three climate engineering schemes that have been proposed. One scheme attempts to reduce the incoming solar radiation far outside the atmosphere, the other two increase the earth albedo either by introducing aerosols into the stratosphere or by modifying clouds in the lower marine atmosphere. While all three schemes face severe engineering challenges, they are in principle able to bring the global energy budget back toward the preindustrial value. However, this only holds for the global average, while unintentional regional climate response must be expected. The regional response is hardly predictable, and it is even rather difficult to detect in view of climatic variability. On the other hand, climate engineering would have severe ecological, societal, legal and political implications. We conclude that none of the schemes offers itself as remedy for climate change, but argue that dedicated research on their potential and consequences is advisable.     

A cavity ring-down analyzer for measuring atmospheric levels of methane, carbon dioxide, and water vapor

Researchers investigating global climate change need measurements of greenhouse gases with extreme precision and accuracy to enable the development and benchmarking of better climate models. Existing atmospheric monitors based on non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensors have known problems – they are non-linear, sensitive to water vapor concentration, and susceptible to drift. Many cannot easily be simultaneously calibrated across different sites to the level of accuracy required for use in atmospheric studies. We present results from field trials by Pennsylvania State University and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of a newly available analyzer, based on cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS), capable of measuring the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor (H₂O). In addition, we present data from a new analyzer which measures CO₂, methane (CH₄), and H₂O. PACS  07.88.+y     

太阳辐射与温室效应

人类活动引起大气中温室气体增加，导致大气中温室效应增强，这一点已引起世界各国的普遍关注。目前，世界各国都在积极采取有效措施，大力控制人为因素所导致的温室效应，不断改善日益恶劣的气候条件。文章简要阐述了温室效应产生的原因，对生态环境的影响，并提出了减缓温室效应的途径。     

Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations

A new type of ultra-high resolution atmospheric global circulation model is developed. The new model is designed to perform “cloud resolving simulations” by directly calculating deep convection and meso-scale circulations, which play key roles not only in the tropical circulations but in the global circulations of the atmosphere. Since cores of deep convection have a few km in horizontal size, they have not directly been resolved by existing atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In order to drastically enhance horizontal resolution, a new framework of a global atmospheric model is required; we adopted nonhydrostatic governing equations and icosahedral grids to the new model, and call it Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). In this article, we review governing equations and numerical techniques employed, and present the results from the unique 3.5-km mesh global experiments—with O(10⁹) computational nodes—using realistic topography and land/ocean surface thermal forcing. The results show realistic behaviors of multi-scale convective systems in the tropics, which have not been captured by AGCMs. We also argue future perspective of the roles of the new model in the next generation atmospheric sciences.     

Photonic sensing of the atmosphere by absorption spectroscopy

Chemically reactive atmospheric species play a crucial role in tropospheric processes which affect regional air quality and global climate change. Contrary to long-lived species such as greenhouse gases, interference-free accurate and precise concentration assessments of strongly reactive short-lived species represent a real challenge. In this paper, we report on the recent progress in spectroscopic instrumental developments for monitoring of OH, NO₃, HONO and NO₂ by using modern photonic sources (Quantum Cascade Laser, distributed feedback diode laser, light emitting diode) in conjunction with high-sensitivity spectroscopic measurement techniques such as multi-pass cell based long optical path length absorption spectroscopy, wavelength-modulation enhanced off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy, Faraday rotation spectroscopy, incoherent broadband cavity enhanced absorption spectroscopy. The main techniques available for routine atmospheric measurements of OH, NO₃ and HONO are overviewed, in comparison with the emerging modern photonic spectroscopy techniques.     

Predictions of climate changes caused by man-made emissions of greenhouse gases: A critical assessment

Predictions of the most advanced computer models of the changes in the global climate that may result from man-made emissions of greenhouse gases are described and assessed in the light of the uncertainties in future emissions and atmospheric concentrations of these gases, and of the limitations of the models

Predictions of the globally averaged temperature rise, produced by the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide over 70 years, range from 1·3 to 2·6°C, on average about 0·3°C decade^?1. The scattering of solar radiation by atmospheric aerosols is calculated to reduce this global warming to about 1·0°C or 0·2°C decade^?1. Warming is predicted to occur everywhere but to be most marked in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Globally averaged precipitation is predicted to rise by a few per cent but with large geographical variations and areas of both increase and decrease. The largest increases are expected to occur in intertropical convergence zone, and in middle and high latitudes, especially in winter. Decreases are predicted in the subtropics. The best current estimate of the rise in sea level resulting from an annual increase of 1% p.a. of carbon dioxide is 4 cm decade^?1.     

Application of Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy in the Study of Atmospheric Heterogeneous Processes

Abstract

Atmospheric heterogeneous processes associated with the complex behavior of atmospheric particles may play a crucial role in atmospheric chemistry and global climate change. Many of these heterogeneous processes have been widely investigated in detail over the years, including heterogeneous reactions on the surface of aerosol particles, aerosol hygroscopicity, as well as aerosol chemical compositions. As a fast, sensitive, precise, nondestructive, in situ, and online experimental technique, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy has played a significant role in investigating atmospheric heterogeneous processes. On the basis of the mechanisms and characteristics of various FTIR techniques, this work presents a review of the applications of in situ FTIR spectroscopy in atmospheric heterogeneous processes study, and future development directions for FTIR spectroscopy are proposed considering current and future research needs for heterogeneous processes.     

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate.The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather.Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.     

风云三号C星全球导航卫星掩星探测仪首次实现北斗掩星探测

全球导航卫星掩星探测仪(GNOS)是国际首台北斗系统(BDS)和全球定位系统(GPS)双系统兼容掩星探测仪, 2013年9月23日随风云三号卫星C星(FY3 C)发射入轨, 目前已测得大量掩星数据. 介绍了FY3 C-GNOS的组成; 统计了2013年10月12日全天的FY3 C-GNOS掩星事件及其全球分布情况; 通过与GPS精密定轨结果进行对比分析, 测试了BDS在轨实时定位精度, 检验了BDS掩星产品的可靠性和一致性. 初步分析结果表明: 14颗BDS卫星在轨运营的条件下, BDS和GPS兼容掩星探测仪可将掩星事件数提高约33.3%; BDS实时定位平均偏差优于6 m, 标准偏差优于7 m; 5-25 km高度范围内, BDS与GPS内符合精度大气折射率优于2%, 温度优于2 K, 湿度优于1.5 g/kg, 压强优于2%, 电离层峰值密度优于15.6%. GNOS的在轨正常运行及BDS与GPS掩星定位精度及反演产品的一致性为北斗掩星探测的业务化运行奠定了基础.     

Radiative entropy balance and vertical stability of a gray atmosphere

Radiative entropy production and entropy flux are subject to ongoing controversial discussion in the scientific literature. The entropy export of planets such as Earth enables and limits all processes of self-organisation in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere, and is of fundamental importance for climate studies in the context of the so-called greenhouse effect. In this paper, as tutorial examples, formulas for the entropy balance are derived for two simplified gray atmosphere models, each in radiation balance with a black planetary surface of given temperature and with the cold cosmic background. It is shown that the atmospheric entropy production increases strongly with the absorptivity of the atmosphere, while the stationary surface air temperature is always very close to that of the black surface underneath, even though sensible heat flow is intentionally omitted from the models.     

On temporal evolution of precipitation probability of the Yangtze River delta in the last 50 years

The monthly precipitation observational data of the Yangtze River delta are transformed into the temporal evolution of precipitation probability (PP), and its hierarchically distributive characters have been revealed in this paper. Research results show that precipitation of the Yangtze River delta displays the interannual and interdecadal characters and the periods are all significant at a confidence level of more than 0.05. The interdecadal is an important time scale, because it is on the one hand a disturbance of long period changes, and on the other hand it is also the background for interannual change. The interdecadal and 3－7y oscillations have different motion laws in the data-based mechanism self-memory model (DAMSM). Meanwhile, this paper also provides a new train of thought for dynamic modelling. Because this method only involves a certain length of data series, it can be used in many fields, such as meteorology, hydrology, seismology, and economy etc, and thus has a bright perspective in practical applications.     

The role of cosmic rays in the Earth’s atmospheric processes

In this paper, we have provided an overview of cosmic ray effects on terrestrial processes such as electrical properties, global electric circuit, lightning, cloud formation, cloud coverage, atmospheric temperature, space weather phenomena, climate, etc. It is suggested that cosmic rays control short-term and long-term variations in climate. There are many basic phenomena which need further study and require new and long-term data set. Some of these have been pointed out.     

Visualization of Ocean Colour and Temperature from multi-spectral imagery captured by the Japanese ADEOS satellite

The Ocean Colour and Temperature Scanner on board of the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite has been designed to provide frequent global measurements of marine chlorophyll levels and ocean temperature and created a means for visualizing the biological activity in the upper ocean. Over the time of its operation, the sensor captured the coverage of global oceans suitable for studies of the marine primary production and monitoring of fishery sites and environmental changes. Current radiative transfer techniques modelling marine chlorophyll levels based on optical reflectances captured by satellite sensors have to account for atmospheric path radiances superimposed onto the waterleaving radiance and a diversity of water suspended particles. Detailed modelling of geophysical processes and empirically constrained algorithms sometimes produce misclassifications. This paper presents chlorophyll concentration for several sites around the Pacific Ocean. Where the skill of the conventional chlorophyll algorithm is uncertain, the results given by an unsupervised neural network classification scheme are also provided. The hierarchical neural network introduced in the text extracts water pixels from images and reclassifies them to separate case 1 and case 2 waters and water radiances with the significant influence of the atmospheric attenuation.     

全球变暖的物理基础和科学简史

全球变暖不仅是当今大气科学乃至整个地球科学的热门研究领域,也是国际社会争论较多的热门话题.文章的目的并不是为了澄清这些争论,而是集中于简要阐述全球变暖的物理学基础,回顾其近200年的科学发展历史.藉此希望对非大气科学背景的学者理解有关全球变暖的科学问题有所帮助.