Lukasiewicz-based merging possibilistic networks

Possibility theory provides a good framework for dealing with merging problems when information is pervaded with uncertainty and inconsistency. Many merging operators in possibility theory have been proposed. This paper develops a new approach to merging uncertain information modeled by possibilistic networks. In this approach we restrict our attention to show how a “triangular norm” establishes a lower bound on the degree to which an assessment is true when it is obtained by a set of initial hypothesis represented by a joint possibility distribution. This operator is characterized by its high effect of reinforcement. A strongly conjunctive operator is suitable to merge networks that are not involved in conflict, especially those supported by both sources. In this paper, the Lukasiewicz t-norm is first applied to a set of possibility measures to combine networks having the same and different graphical structures. We then present a method to merge possibilistic networks dealing with cycles.     

On the transformation between possibilistic logic bases and possibilistic causal networks

Possibilistic logic bases and possibilistic graphs are two different frameworks of interest for representing knowledge. The former ranks the pieces of knowledge (expressed by logical formulas) according to their level of certainty, while the latter exhibits relationships between variables. The two types of representation are semantically equivalent when they lead to the same possibility distribution (which rank-orders the possible interpretations). A possibility distribution can be decomposed using a chain rule which may be based on two different kinds of conditioning that exist in possibility theory (one based on the product in a numerical setting, one based on the minimum operation in a qualitative setting). These two types of conditioning induce two kinds of possibilistic graphs. This article deals with the links between the logical and the graphical frameworks in both numerical and quantitative settings. In both cases, a translation of these graphs into possibilistic bases is provided. The converse translation from a possibilistic knowledge base into a min-based graph is also described.     

Using possibilistic logic for modeling qualitative decision: Answer Set Programming algorithms

A qualitative approach to decision making under uncertainty has been proposed in the setting of possibility theory, which is based on the assumption that levels of certainty and levels of priority (for expressing preferences) are commensurate. In this setting, pessimistic and optimistic decision criteria have been formally justified. This approach has been transposed into possibilistic logic in which the available knowledge is described by formulas which are more or less certainly true and the goals are described in a separate prioritized base. This paper adapts the possibilistic logic handling of qualitative decision making under uncertainty in the Answer Set Programming (ASP) setting. We show how weighted beliefs and prioritized preferences belonging to two separate knowledge bases can be handled in ASP by modeling qualitative decision making in terms of abductive logic programming where (uncertain) knowledge about the world and prioritized preferences are encoded as possibilistic definite logic programs and possibilistic literals respectively. We provide ASP-based and possibilistic ASP-based algorithms for calculating optimal decisions and utility values according to the possibilistic decision criteria. We describe a prototype implementing the algorithms proposed on top of different ASP solvers and we discuss the complexity of the different implementations.     

A class of possibilistic portfolio selection model with interval coefficients and its application

Because of the existence of non-stochastic factors in stock markets, several possibilistic portfolio selection models have been proposed, where the expected return rates of securities are considered as fuzzy variables with possibilistic distributions. This paper deals with a possibilistic portfolio selection model with interval center values. By using modality approach and goal attainment approach, it is converted into a nonlinear goal programming problem. Moreover, a genetic algorithm is designed to obtain a satisfactory solution to the possibilistic portfolio selection model under complicated constraints. Finally, a numerical example based on real world data is also provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the genetic algorithm.     

Decision making with hybrid influence diagrams using mixtures of truncated exponentials

Mixtures of truncated exponentials (MTE) potentials are an alternative to discretization for representing continuous chance variables in influence diagrams. Also, MTE potentials can be used to approximate utility functions. This paper introduces MTE influence diagrams, which can represent decision problems without restrictions on the relationships between continuous and discrete chance variables, without limitations on the distributions of continuous chance variables, and without limitations on the nature of the utility functions. In MTE influence diagrams, all probability distributions and the joint utility function (or its multiplicative factors) are represented by MTE potentials and decision nodes are assumed to have discrete state spaces. MTE influence diagrams are solved by variable elimination using a fusion algorithm.     

A risk tolerance model for portfolio adjusting problem with transaction costs based on possibilistic moments

Due to changes of situation in financial markets and investors’ preferences towards risk, an existing portfolio may not be efficient after a period of time. In this paper, we propose a possibilistic risk tolerance model for the portfolio adjusting problem based on possibility moments theory. A Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO)-type decomposition method is developed for finding exact optimal portfolio policy without extra matrix storage. We present a simple method to estimate the possibility distributions for the returns of assets. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed models and approaches.     

Ample fields as a basis for possibilistic processes

Ample fields play an important role in possibility theory. These fields of subsets of a universe, which are additionally closed under arbitrary unions, act as the natural domains for possibility measures. A set provided with an ample field is then called an ample space. In this paper we generalise Wang's notions of product ample field and product ample space. We make a topological study of ample spaces and their products, and introduce ample subspaces, extensions and one-point extensions of ample spaces. In this way, a first step towards a mathematical theory of possibilistic processes is made.     

An axiomatic derivation of the coding-theoretic possibilistic entropy

We re-take the possibilistic (strictly non-probabilistic) model for information sources and information coding put forward in (Fuzzy Sets and Systems 132–1 (2002) 11–32); the coding-theoretic possibilistic entropy is defined there as the asymptotic rate of compression codes, which are optimal with respect to a possibilistic (not probabilistic) criterion. By proving a uniqueness theorem, in this paper we provide also an axiomatic derivation for such a possibilistic entropy, and so are able to support its use as an adequate measure of non-specificity, or rather of “possibilistic ignorance”, as we shall prefer to say. We compare our possibilistic entropy with two well-known measures of non-specificity: Hartley measure as found in set theory and U-uncertainty as found in possibility theory. The comparison allows us to show that the latter possesses also a coding-theoretic meaning.     

Solving a multiobjective possibilistic problem through compromise programming

Real decision problems usually consider several objectives that have parameters which are often given by the decision maker in an imprecise way. It is possible to handle these kinds of problems through multiple criteria models in terms of possibility theory.Here we propose a method for solving these kinds of models through a fuzzy compromise programming approach.To formulate a fuzzy compromise programming problem from a possibilistic multiobjective linear programming problem the fuzzy ideal solution concept is introduced. This concept is based on soft preference and indifference relationships and on canonical representation of fuzzy numbers by means of their α-cuts. The accuracy between the ideal solution and the objective values is evaluated handling the fuzzy parameters through their expected intervals and a definition of discrepancy between intervals is introduced in our analysis.     

Relating and extending semantical approaches to possibilistic reasoning

Two main semantical approaches to possibilistic reasoning with classical propositions have been proposed in the literature. Namely, Dubois-Prade's approach known as possibilistic logic, whose semantics is based on a preference ordering in the set of possible worlds, and Ruspini's approach that we redefine and call similarity logic, which relies on the notion of similarity or resemblance between worlds. In this article we put into relation both approaches, and it is shown that the monotonic fragment of possibilistic logic can be semantically embedded into similarity logic. Furthermore, to extend possibilistic reasoning to deal with fuzzy propositions, a semantical reasoning framework, called fuzzy truth-valued logic, is also introduced and proved to capture the semantics of both possibilistic and similarity logics.     

Hybrid possibilistic networks

Possibilistic networks and possibilistic logic are two standard frameworks of interest for representing uncertain pieces of knowledge. Possibilistic networks exhibit relationships between variables while possibilistic logic ranks logical formulas according to their level of certainty. For multiply connected networks, it is well-known that the inference process is a hard problem. This paper studies a new representation of possibilistic networks called hybrid possibilistic networks. It results from combining the two semantically equivalent types of standard representation. We first present a propagation algorithm through hybrid possibilistic networks. This inference algorithm on hybrid networks is strictly more efficient (and confirmed by experimental studies) than the one of standard propagation algorithm.     

An informational distance for estimating the faithfulness of a possibility distribution,viewed as a family of probability distributions,with respect to data

An acknowledged interpretation of possibility distributions in quantitative possibility theory is in terms of families of probabilities that are upper and lower bounded by the associated possibility and necessity measures. This paper proposes an informational distance function for possibility distributions that agrees with the above-mentioned view of possibility theory in the continuous and in the discrete cases. Especially, we show that, given a set of data following a probability distribution, the optimal possibility distribution with respect to our informational distance is the distribution obtained as the result of the probability-possibility transformation that agrees with the maximal specificity principle. It is also shown that when the optimal distribution is not available due to representation bias, maximizing this possibilistic informational distance provides more faithful results than approximating the probability distribution and then applying the probability-possibility transformation. We show that maximizing the possibilistic informational distance is equivalent to minimizing the squared distance to the unknown optimal possibility distribution. Two advantages of the proposed informational distance function is that (i) it does not require the knowledge of the shape of the probability distribution that underlies the data, and (ii) it amounts to sum up the elementary terms corresponding to the informational distance between the considered possibility distribution and each piece of data. We detail the particular case of triangular and trapezoidal possibility distributions and we show that any unimodal unknown probability distribution can be faithfully upper approximated by a triangular distribution obtained by optimizing the possibilistic informational distance.     

A note on the convexity assumption of possibilistic correlation

In 2005, Carlsson, Fullér and Majlender introduced a measure of possibilistic correlation of fuzzy numbers A and B by their joint possibility distributionC as an average degree of interaction between the γ-level sets of A and B as compared to their individual dispersions. They proved that this possibilistic correlation coefficient can never exceed 1 in absolute value, if all γ-level sets of the joint possibility distribution C are convex.In this communication, we shall formulate a special class of joint possibility distributions with non-convex γ-level sets, for which the correlation coefficient can take values outside the interval [−1,1]. In particular, this result will show that the assumption about the convexity of the level sets of C is essential for the possibilistic correlation to be bounded by the interval [−1,1].     

An extension to possibilistic fuzzy cluster analysis

We explore an approach to possibilistic fuzzy clustering that avoids a severe drawback of the conventional approach, namely that the objective function is truly minimized only if all cluster centers are identical. Our approach is based on the idea that this undesired property can be avoided if we introduce a mutual repulsion of the clusters, so that they are forced away from each other. We develop this approach for the possibilistic fuzzy c-means algorithm and the Gustafson–Kessel algorithm. In our experiments we found that in this way we can combine the partitioning property of the probabilistic fuzzy c-means algorithm with the advantages of a possibilistic approach w.r.t. the interpretation of the membership degrees.     

A possibilistic decision model for new product supply chain design

This paper models supply chain (SC) uncertainties by fuzzy sets and develops a possibilistic SC configuration model for new products with unreliable or unavailable SC statistical data. The supply chain is modeled as a network of stages. Each stage may have one or more options characterized by the cost and lead-time required to fulfill required functions and may hold safety stock to prevent an inventory shortage. The objective is to determine the option and inventory policy for each stage to minimize the total SC cost and maximize the possibility of fulfilling the target service level. A fuzzy SC model is developed to evaluate the performance of the entire SC and a genetic algorithm approach is applied to determine near-optimal solutions. The results obtained show that the proposed approach allows decision makers to perform trade-off analysis among customer service levels, product cost, and inventory investment depending on their risk attitude. It also provides an alternative tool to evaluate and improve SC configuration decisions in an uncertain SC environment.     

Possibilistic sequential decision making

When the information about uncertainty cannot be quantified in a simple, probabilistic way, the topic of possibilistic decision theory is often a natural one to consider. The development of possibilistic decision theory has lead to the proposition a series of possibilistic criteria, namely: optimistic and pessimistic possibilistic qualitative criteria [7], possibilistic likely dominance [2], [9], binary possibilistic utility [11] and possibilistic Choquet integrals [24]. This paper focuses on sequential decision making in possibilistic decision trees. It proposes a theoretical study on the complexity of the problem of finding an optimal strategy depending on the monotonicity property of the optimization criteria – when the criterion is transitive, this property indeed allows a polytime solving of the problem by Dynamic Programming. We show that most possibilistic decision criteria, but possibilistic Choquet integrals, satisfy monotonicity and that the corresponding optimization problems can be solved in polynomial time by Dynamic Programming. Concerning the possibilistic likely dominance criteria which is quasi-transitive but not fully transitive, we propose an extended version of Dynamic Programming which remains polynomial in the size of the decision tree. We also show that for the particular case of possibilistic Choquet integrals, the problem of finding an optimal strategy is NP-hard. It can be solved by a Branch and Bound algorithm. Experiments show that even not necessarily optimal, the strategies built by Dynamic Programming are generally very good.     

Dominance-based fuzzy rough set analysis of uncertain and possibilistic data tables

In this paper, we propose a dominance-based fuzzy rough set approach for the decision analysis of a preference-ordered uncertain or possibilistic data table, which is comprised of a finite set of objects described by a finite set of criteria. The domains of the criteria may have ordinal properties that express preference scales. In the proposed approach, we first compute the degree of dominance between any two objects based on their imprecise evaluations with respect to each criterion. This results in a valued dominance relation on the universe. Then, we define the degree of adherence to the dominance principle by every pair of objects and the degree of consistency of each object. The consistency degrees of all objects are aggregated to derive the quality of the classification, which we use to define the reducts of a data table. In addition, the upward and downward unions of decision classes are fuzzy subsets of the universe. Thus, the lower and upper approximations of the decision classes based on the valued dominance relation are fuzzy rough sets. By using the lower approximations of the decision classes, we can derive two types of decision rules that can be applied to new decision cases.     

Multi-objective possibilistic model for portfolio selection with transaction cost

In this paper, we introduce the possibilistic mean value and variance of continuous distribution, rather than probability distributions. We propose a multi-objective Portfolio based model and added another entropy objective function to generate a well diversified asset portfolio within optimal asset allocation. For quantifying any potential return and risk, portfolio liquidity is taken into account and a multi-objective non-linear programming model for portfolio rebalancing with transaction cost is proposed. The models are illustrated with numerical examples.     

Approaches to multistage one-shot decision making

In this research, multistage one-shot decision making under uncertainty is studied. In such a decision problem, a decision maker has one and only one chance to make a decision at each stage with possibilistic information. Based on the one-shot decision theory, approaches to multistage one-shot decision making are proposed. In the proposed approach, a decision maker chooses one state amongst all the states according to his/her attitude about satisfaction and possibility at each stage. The payoff at each stage is associated with the focus points at the succeeding stages. Based on the selected states (focus points), the sequence of optimal decisions is determined by dynamic programming. The proposed method is a fundamental alternative for multistage decision making under uncertainty because it is scenario-based instead of lottery-based as in the other existing methods. The one-shot optimal stopping problem is analyzed where a decision maker has only one chance to determine stopping or continuing at each stage. The theoretical results have been obtained.