Chance constrained programming models for refinery short-term crude oil scheduling problem

The main objective of this work is to put forward chance constrained mixed-integer nonlinear stochastic and fuzzy programming models for refinery short-term crude oil scheduling problem under demands uncertainty of distillation units. The scheduling problem studied has characteristics of discrete events and continuous events coexistence, multistage, multiproduct, nonlinear, uncertainty and large scale. At first, the two models are transformed into their equivalent stochastic and fuzzy mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) models by using the method of Quesada and Grossmann [I. Quesada, I E. Grossmann, Global optimization of bilinear process networks with multicomponent flows, Comput. Chem. Eng. 19 (12) (1995) 1219–1242], respectively. After that, the stochastic equivalent model is converted into its deterministic MILP model through probabilistic theory. The fuzzy equivalent model is transformed into its crisp MILP model relies on the fuzzy theory presented by Liu and Iwamura [B.D. Liu, K. Iwamura, Chance constrained programming with fuzzy parameters, Fuzzy Sets Syst. 94 (2) (1998) 227–237] for the first time in this area. Finally, the two crisp MILP models are solved in LINGO 8.0 based on scheduling time discretization. A case study which has 267 continuous variables, 68 binary variables and 320 constraints is effectively solved with the solution approaches proposed.     

Planning logistics operations in the oil industry

In this paper we apply stochastic programming modelling and solution techniques to planning problems for a consortium of oil companies. A multiperiod supply, transformation and distribution scheduling problem—the Depot and Refinery Optimization Problem (DROP)—is formulated for strategic or tactical level planning of the consortium's activities. This deterministic model is used as a basis for implementing a stochastic programming formulation with uncertainty in the product demands and spot supply costs (DROPS), whose solution process utilizes the deterministic equivalent linear programming problem. We employ our STOCHGEN general purpose stochastic problem generator to ‘recreate’ the decision (scenario) tree for the unfolding future as this deterministic equivalent. To project random demands for oil products at different spatial locations into the future and to generate random fluctuations in their future prices/costs a stochastic input data simulator is developed and calibrated to historical industry data. The models are written in the modelling language XPRESS-MP and solved by the XPRESS suite of linear programming solvers. From the viewpoint of implementation of large-scale stochastic programming models this study involves decisions in both space and time and careful revision of the original deterministic formulation. The first part of the paper treats the specification, generation and solution of the deterministic DROP model. The stochastic version of the model (DROPS) and its implementation are studied in detail in the second part and a number of related research questions and implications discussed.     

Functional data analysis for cash flow and transactions intensity continuous-time prediction using Hilbert-valued autoregressive processes

In this paper we use a functional autoregressive model as a robust predictor of the cash flow and intensity of transactions in a credit card payment systems. Intraday economic time series are treated as random continuous functions projected onto low dimensional subspace. Wavelet bases are considered for data smoothing. We compare two linear wavelet methods for the prediction problem of a continuous-time stochastic process on an entire time interval. Ex poste prediction is used to check the models.     

Foreign Currency Inventory Management in a Branch Bank

A branch bank may decide to stock one or more foreign currencies to meet demands from its customers and may also accumulate foreign currency as a result of customer transactions. This paper presents the branch bank's foreign currency problem as an inventory management problem and derives good (and in many cases, optimal) decision rules for this type of cash management problem.While the model presented is similar to models which have been proposed for cash management, the foreign currency problem has a number of features which lead to distinct differences. The model was developed for the Canadian situation but is generalizable to any branch having a significant volume of foreign currency transactions.     

Mslip: A computer code for the multistage stochastic linear programming problem

This paper describes an efficient implementation of a nested decomposition algorithm for the multistage stochastic linear programming problem. Many of the computational tricks developed for deterministic staircase problems are adapted to the stochastic setting and their effect on computation times is investigated. The computer code supports an arbitrary number of time periods and various types of random structures for the input data. Numerical results compare the performance of the algorithm to MINOS 5.0.     

A fuzzy stochastic model for telecommunications bandwidth brokers under probabilistic QoS measures

In this paper, we model and solve profit maximization problem of a telecommunications Bandwidth Broker (BB) under uncertain market and network infrastructure conditions. The BB may lease network capacity from a set of Backbone Providers (BPs) or from other BBs in order to gain profit by leasing already purchased capacity to end-users. BB’s problem becomes harder to deal with when bandwidth requests of end-users, profit and cost margins are not known in advance. The novelty of the proposed work is the development of a mechanism via combining fuzzy and stochastic programming methodologies for solving complex BP selection and bandwidth demand allocation problem in communication networks, based on the fact that information needed for making these decisions is not available prior to leasing capacity. In addition, suggested model aims to maximize BB’s decision maker’s satisfaction ratio rather than just profit. As a solution strategy, the resulting fuzzy stochastic programming model is transformed into deterministic crisp equivalent form and then solved to optimality. Finally, the numerical experiments show that on the average, proposed approach provides 14.30% more profit and 69.50% more satisfaction ratio compared to deterministic approaches in which randomness and vagueness in the market and infrastructure are ignored.     

A scenario‐based stochastic programming model for the control or dummy wafers downgrading problem

The subject of this paper is to study a realistic planning environment in wafer fabrication for the control or dummy (C/D) wafers problem with uncertain demand. The demand of each product is assumed with a geometric Brownian motion and approximated by a finite discrete set of scenarios. A two‐stage stochastic programming model is developed based on scenarios and solved by a deterministic equivalent large linear programming model. The model explicitly considers the objective to minimize the total cost of C/D wafers. A real‐world example is given to illustrate the practicality of a stochastic approach. The results are better in comparison with deterministic linear programming by using expectation instead of stochastic demands. The model improved the performance of control and dummy wafers management and the flexibility of determining the downgrading policy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probability maximization models for portfolio selection under ambiguity

This paper considers several probability maximization models for multi-scenario portfolio selection problems in the case that future returns in possible scenarios are multi-dimensional random variables. In order to consider occurrence probabilities and decision makers’ predictions with respect to all scenarios, a portfolio selection problem setting a weight with flexibility to each scenario is proposed. Furthermore, by introducing aspiration levels to occurrence probabilities or future target profit and maximizing the minimum aspiration level, a robust portfolio selection problem is considered. Since these problems are formulated as stochastic programming problems due to the inclusion of random variables, they are transformed into deterministic equivalent problems introducing chance constraints based on the stochastic programming approach. Then, using a relation between the variance and absolute deviation of random variables, our proposed models are transformed into linear programming problems and efficient solution methods are developed to obtain the global optimal solution. Furthermore, a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem is provided to compare our proposed models with the basic model.     

Two storage inventory model in a mixed environment

Multi-item inventory models with two storage facility and bulk release pattern are developed with linearly time dependent demand in a finite time horizon under crisp, stochastic and fuzzy-stochastic environments. Here different inventory parameters—holding costs, ordering costs, purchase costs, etc.—are assumed as probabilistic or fuzzy in nature. In particular cases stochastic and crisp models are derived. Models are formulated as profit maximization principle and three different approaches are proposed for solution. In the first approach, fuzzy extension principle is used to find membership function of the objective function and then it’s Graded Mean Integration Value (GMIV) for different optimistic levels are taken as equivalent stochastic objectives. Then the stochastic model is transformed to a constraint multi-objective programming problem using Stochastic Non-linear Programming (SNLP) technique. The multi-objective problems are transferred to single objective problems using Interactive Fuzzy Satisfising (IFS) technique. Finally, a Region Reducing Genetic Algorithm (RRGA) based on entropy has been developed and implemented to solve the single objective problems. In the second approach, the above GMIV (which is stochastic in nature) is optimized with some degree of probability and using SNLP technique model is transferred to an equivalent single objective crisp problem and solved using RRGA. In the third approach, objective function is optimized with some degree of possibility/necessity and following this approach model is transformed to an equivalent constrained stochastic programming problem. Then it is transformed to an equivalent single objective crisp problem using SNLP technique and solved via RRGA. The models are illustrated with some numerical examples and some sensitivity analyses have been presented.     

A generalized stochastic goal programming model

In this paper we show how one can get stochastic solutions of Stochastic Multi-objective Problem (SMOP) using goal programming models. In literature it is well known that one can reduce a SMOP to deterministic equivalent problems and reduce the analysis of a stochastic problem to a collection of deterministic problems. The first sections of this paper will be devoted to the introduction of deterministic equivalent problems when the feasible set is a random set and we show how to solve them using goal programming technique. In the second part we try to go more in depth on notion of SMOP solution and we suppose that it has to be a random variable. We will present stochastic goal programming model for finding stochastic solutions of SMOP. Our approach requires more computational time than the one based on deterministic equivalent problems due to the fact that several optimization programs (which depend on the number of experiments to be run) needed to be solved. On the other hand, since in our approach we suppose that a SMOP solution is a random variable, according to the Central Limit Theorem the larger will be the sample size and the more precise will be the estimation of the statistical moments of a SMOP solution. The developed model will be illustrated through numerical examples.     

An Integrated Market for Electricity and Natural Gas Systems with Stochastic Power Producers

In energy systems with high shares of weather-driven renewable power sources, gas-fired power plants can serve as a back-up technology to ensure security of supply and provide short-term flexibility. Therefore, a tighter coordination between electricity and natural gas networks is foreseen. In this work, we examine different levels of coordination in terms of system integration and time coupling of trading floors. We propose an integrated operational model for electricity and natural gas systems under uncertain power supply by applying two-stage stochastic programming. This formulation co-optimizes day-ahead and real-time dispatch of both energy systems and aims at minimizing the total expected cost. Additionally, two deterministic models, one of an integrated energy system and one that treats the two systems independently, are presented. We utilize a formulation that considers the linepack of the natural gas system, while it results in a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model in accommodating high shares of renewables and the importance of proper natural gas system modeling in short-term operations to reveal valuable flexibility of the natural gas system. Moreover, we identify the coordination parameters between the two markets and show their impact on the system’s operation and dispatch.     

Dynamic lot-sizing in sequential online retail auctions

Retailers often conduct non-overlapping sequential online auctions as a revenue generation and inventory clearing tool. We build a stochastic dynamic programming model for the seller’s lot-size decision problem in these auctions. The model incorporates a random number of participating bidders in each auction, allows for any bid distribution, and is not restricted to any specific price-determination mechanism. Using stochastic monotonicity/stochastic concavity and supermodularity arguments, we present a complete structural characterization of optimal lot-sizing policies under a second order condition on the single-auction expected revenue function. We show that a monotone staircase with unit jumps policy is optimal and provide a simple inequality to determine the locations of these staircase jumps. Our analytical examples demonstrate that the second order condition is met in common online auction mechanisms. We also present numerical experiments and sensitivity analyses using real online auction data.     

Multi-objective stochastic programming for portfolio selection

Generally, in the portfolio selection problem the Decision Maker (DM) considers simultaneously conflicting objectives such as rate of return, liquidity and risk. Multi-objective programming techniques such as goal programming (GP) and compromise programming (CP) are used to choose the portfolio best satisfying the DM’s aspirations and preferences. In this article, we assume that the parameters associated with the objectives are random and normally distributed. We propose a chance constrained compromise programming model (CCCP) as a deterministic transformation to multi-objective stochastic programming portfolio model. CCCP is based on CP and chance constrained programming (CCP) models. The proposed program is illustrated by means of a portfolio selection problem from the Tunisian stock exchange market.     

Design of mathematical models for the integration of purchase and production lot-sizing and scheduling problems under demand uncertainty

This study addresses the multi-level lot-sizing and scheduling problem with complex setups and considers supplier selection with quantity discounts and multiple modes of transportation. The present research proposes a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model in which the purchase lot-sizing from multiple suppliers, production lot-sizing with multiple machines and scheduling of various products of different families are accomplished at the same time. However, these decisions are not integrated in traditional environments and are taken separately. In this study, two different types of lot-sizing models called aggregated and disaggregated are developed for the problem to evaluate and compare the computational efficiency of them under deterministic and stochastic demands and provide some managerial insights. To deal with the stochastic demands, Chance-Constrained Programming (CCP) approach is applied. Based on the results of this study, the average profit of the separated (purchase from production) lot-sizing model under demand choice flexibility and stochastic demand is 24% and 22% less than the integrated model, respectively. Moreover, the results also confirm the effect of discount structure on the amount of purchases, productions, revenues and costs.     

Solving non-linear portfolio optimization problems with the primal-dual interior point method

Stochastic programming is recognized as a powerful tool to help decision making under uncertainty in financial planning. The deterministic equivalent formulations of these stochastic programs have huge dimensions even for moderate numbers of assets, time stages and scenarios per time stage. So far models treated by mathematical programming approaches have been limited to simple linear or quadratic models due to the inability of currently available solvers to solve NLP problems of typical sizes. However stochastic programming problems are highly structured. The key to the efficient solution of such problems is therefore the ability to exploit their structure. Interior point methods are well-suited to the solution of very large non-linear optimization problems. In this paper we exploit this feature and show how portfolio optimization problems with sizes measured in millions of constraints and decision variables, featuring constraints on semi-variance, skewness or non-linear utility functions in the objective, can be solved with the state-of-the-art solver.     

Stochastic modelling of reservoir operations

The nature of hydrologic parameters in reservoir management models is uncertain. In mathematical programming models the uncertainties are dealt with either indirectly (sensitivity analysis of a deterministic model) or directly by applying a chance-constrained type of formulation or some of the stochastic programming techniques (LP and DP based models). Various approaches are reviewed in the paper. Moran's theory of storage is an alternative stochastic modelling approach to mathematical programming techniques. The basis of the approach and its application is presented. Reliability programming is a stochastic technique based on the chance-constrained approach, where the reliabilities of the chance constraints are considered as extra decision variables in the model. The problem of random event treatment in the reservoir management model formulation using reliability programming is addressed in this paper.     

Two-stage stochastic linear programs with incomplete information on uncertainty

Two-stage stochastic linear programming is a classical model in operations research. The usual approach to this model requires detailed information on distribution of the random variables involved. In this paper, we only assume the availability of the first and second moments information of the random variables. By using duality of semi-infinite programming and adopting a linear decision rule, we show that a deterministic equivalence of the two-stage problem can be reformulated as a second-order cone optimization problem. Preliminary numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the computational advantage of this approach.     

An optimal design of collateralized mortgage obligation with PAC-companion structure using dynamic cash reserve

This paper presents a model for optimally designing a collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO) with a planned amortization class (PAC)-companion structure using dynamic cash reserve. In this structure, the mortgage pool’s cash flow is allocated by rule to the two bond classes such that PAC bondholders receive substantial prepayment protection, that protection being provided by the companion bondholders. The structure we propose provides greater protection to the PAC bondholders than current structures during periods of rising interest rates when this class of bondholders faces greater extension risk. We do so by allowing a portion of the cash flow from the collateral to be reserved to meet the PAC’s scheduled cash flow in subsequent periods. The greater protection is provided by the companion bondholders exposure to interest loss. To tackle this problem, we transform the problem of designing the optimal PAC-companion structure into a standard stochastic linear programming problem which can be solved efficiently. Moreover, we present an extended model by considering the quality of the companion bond and by relaxing the PAC bondholder shortfall constraint. Based on numerical experiments through Monte Carlo simulation, we show the utility of the proposed model.     

A sample-path approach to optimal position liquidation

We consider the problem of optimal position liquidation where the expected cash flow stream due to transactions is maximized in the presence of temporary or permanent market impact. A stochastic programming approach is used to construct trading strategies that differentiate decisions with respect to the observed market conditions, and can accommodate various types of trading constraints. As a scenario model, we use a collection of sample paths representing possible future realizations of state variable processes (price, trading volume etc.), and employ a heuristical technique of sample-path grouping, which can be viewed as a generalization of the standard nonanticipativity constraints.     

The Advantages of Fuzzy Optimization Models in Practical Use

Classical mathematical programming models require well-defined coefficients and right hand sides. In order to avoid a non satisfying modeling usually a broad information gathering and processing is necessary. In case of real problems some model parameters can be only roughly estimated. While in case of classical models the vague data is replaced by "average data", fuzzy models offer the opportunity to model subjective imaginations of the decision maker as precisely as a decision maker will be able to describe it. Thus the risk of applying a wrong model of the reality and selecting solutions which do not reflect the real problem can be clearly reduced. The modeling of real problems by means of deterministic and stochastic models requires extensive information processing. On the other hand we know that an optimum solution is finally defined only by few restrictions. Especially in case of larger systems we notice afterwards that most of the information is useless. The dilemma of data processing is due to the fact that first we have to calculate the solution in order to define, whether the information must be well-defined or whether vague data may be sufficient. Based on multicriteria programming problems it should be demonstrated that the dilemma of data processing in case of real programming problems can be handled adequately by modeling them as fuzzy system combined with an interactive problem-solving. Describing the real problem by means of a fuzzy system first of all only the available information or such information which can be achieved easily will be considered. Then we try to develop an optimum solution. With reference to the cost-benefit relation further information can be gathered in order to describe the solution more precisely. Furthermore it should be pointed out that some interactive fuzzy solution algorithms, e.g. FULPAL provide the opportunity to solve mixed integer multicriteria programming models as well.