Modelling the effect of tuberculosis on the spread of HIV infection in a population with density-dependent birth and death rate

A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed to study the effect of tuberculosis on the spread of HIV infection in a logistically growing human population. The host population is divided into four sub classes of susceptibles, TB infectives, HIV infectives (with or without TB) and that of AIDS patients. The model exhibits four equilibria namely, a disease free, HIV free, TB free and an endemic equilibrium. The model has been studied qualitatively using stability theory of nonlinear differential equations and computer simulation. We have found a threshold parameter R₀ which is if less than one, the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable otherwise for R₀>1, at least one of the infections will be present in the population. It is shown that the positive endemic equilibrium is always locally stable but it may become globally stable under certain conditions showing that the disease becomes endemic. It is found that as the number of TB infectives decreases due to recovery, the number of HIV infectives also decreases and endemic equilibrium tends to TB free equilibrium. It is also observed that number of AIDS individuals decreases if TB is not associated with HIV infection. A numerical study of the model is also performed to investigate the influence of certain key parameters on the spread of the disease.     

Modeling plant disease with biological control of insect pests

Abstract

Introduction: This article discusses the problem of plant diseases that pose major threat to agriculture in several parts of the World. Herein, our focus is on viruses that are transmitted from one plant to another by insect vectors. We consider predators that prey on insect population leading to reduction in infection transmission of plant diseases. Methods: We formulate and analyze a deterministic model for plant disease by incorporating predators as biological control agents. Existence of equilibria and the stability of the model are discussed in-detail. Basic reproduction number R₀ of the proposed model is also computed and this helps in determining the impact of different key parameters on the transmission dynamics of disease. Additionally, the proposed model is extended to stochastic model and simulation results of both deterministic and stochastic models are compared and analyzed. Results: Our results of stochastic model show the less number of infected plants and insects compared to corresponding results for deterministic model. Also, our results analyze the impact of different key parameters on the equilibrium levels of infected plants and identify the key parameters. Discussion: Presented results are used to conclude and demonstrate that the biological control is effective in reducing the infection transmission of plant disease and there is a need to use plant-insect-specific predators to get desirable results.     

Effect of partial immunity on transmission dynamics of dengue disease with optimal control

Dengue fever is one of the most dangerous vector‐borne diseases in the world in terms of death and economic cost. Hence, the modeling of dengue fever is of great significance to understand the dynamics of dengue. In this paper, we extend dengue disease transmission models by including transmit vaccinated class, in which a portion of recovered individual loses immunity and moves to the susceptibles with limited immunity and hence a less transmission probability. We obtain the threshold dynamics governed by the basic reproduction number R₀; it is shown that the disease‐free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R₀ ≤ 1, and the system is uniformly persistence if R₀ > 1. We do sensitivity analysis in order to identify the key factors that greatly affect the dengue infection, and the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) values for R₀ shows that the bitting rate is the most effective in lowering dengue new infections, and moreover, control of mosquito size plays an essential role in reducing equilibrium level of dengue infection. Hence, the public are highly suggested to control population size of mosquitoes and to use mosquito nets. By formulating the control objective, associated with the low infection and costs, we propose an optimal control question. By the application of optimal control theory, we analyze the existence of optimal control and obtain necessary conditions for optimal controls. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the effectiveness of control strategies; these simulations recommended that control measures such as protection from mosquito bites and mosquito eradication strategies effectively control and eradicate the dengue infections during the whole epidemic.     

The Distribution of F st for the Island Model in the Large Population,Weak Mutation Limit

Populations are often divided into subpopulations. Biologists use the statistic F _st to perform hypothesis tests for the existence of population subdivision and to estimate migration rates between different subpopulations. The distribution of F _st is not known. In this article, we use coalescent theory methods to find the limiting distribution of F _st in the large population, weak mutation limit under the island model of migration. Our analysis uses the scattering-collection decomposition of the island model coalescent introduced by Wakeley.     

A MODEL OF THE ENZOOTIOLOGY OF LYME DISEASE IN THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE UNITED STATES

A mathematical model is presented for the dynamics of the rate of infection of the Lyme disease vector tick Ixodes dammini (Acari: Ixodidae) by the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi, in the Atlantic Northeast of the United States. According to this model, moderate reductions in the abundance of white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus may either decrease or increase the spirochete infection rate in ticks, provided the deer are not reservoir hosts for Lyme disease. Expressions for the basic reproductive rate of the disease are computed analytically for special cases, and it is shown that as the basic reproductive rate increases, a proportional reduction in the tick population produces a smaller proportional reduction in the infection rate, so that vector control is less effective far above the threshold. The model also shows that control of the mouse reservoir hosts Peromyscus leucopus could reduce the infection rate if the survivorship of juvenile stages of ticks were reduced as a consequence. If the survivorship of juvenile stages does not decline as the rodent population is reduced, then rodent reduction can increase the spirochete infection rate in the ticks.     

Qualitative analysis of the SICR epidemic model with impulsive vaccinations

Control of epidemic infections is a very urgent issue today. To develop an appropriate strategy for vaccinations and effectively prevent the disease from arising and spreading, we proposed a modified Susceptible‐Infected‐Removed model with impulsive vaccinations. For the model without vaccinations, we proved global stability of one of the steady states depending on the basic reproduction number R₀. As typically in the epidemic models, the threshold value of R₀ is 1. If R₀ is greater than 1, then the positive steady state called endemic equilibrium exists and is globally stable, whereas for smaller values of R₀, it does not exist, and the semi‐trivial steady state called disease‐free equilibrium is globally stable. Using impulsive differential equation comparison theorem, we derived sufficient conditions under which the infectious disease described by the considered model disappears ultimately. The analytical results are illustrated by numerical simulations for Hepatitis B virus infection that confirm the theoretical possibility of the infection elimination because of the proper vaccinations policy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of SE τ IR ω S epidemic disease models with vertical transmission in complex networks

When the role of network topology is taken into consideration, one of the objectives is to understand the possible implications of topological structure on epidemic models. As most real networks can be viewed as complex networks, we propose a new delayed SEτ IRωS epidemic disease model with vertical transmission in complex networks. By using a delayed ODE system, in a small-world (SW) network we prove that, under the condition R0 ≤ 1, the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is globally stable. When R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is unique and the disease is uniformly persistent. We further obtain the condition of local stability of endemic equilibrium for R0 > 1. In a scale-free (SF) network we obtain the condition R1 > 1 under which the system will be of non-zero stationary prevalence.     

A finite difference analysis of a streamline diffusion method on a Shishkin mesh

We consider streamline diffusion finite element methods applied to a singularly perturbed convection–diffusion two‐point boundary value problem whose solution has a single boundary layer. To analyse the convergence of these methods, we rewrite them as finite difference schemes. We first consider arbitrary meshes, then, in analysing the scheme on a Shishkin mesh, we consider two formulations on the fine part of the mesh: the usual streamline diffusion upwinding and the standard Galerkin method. The error estimates are given in the discrete L _∞ norm; in particular we give the first analysis that shows precisely how the error depends on the user-chosen parameter _τ0 specifying the mesh. When _τ0 is too small, the error becomes O(1), but for _τ0 above a certain threshold value, the error is small and increases either linearly or quadratically as a function of . Numerical tests support our theoretical results. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

JOINTLY‐DETERMINED ECOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS AND ECONOMIC TRADE‐OFFS IN WILDLIFE DISEASE MANAGEMENT

ABSTRACT. We investigate wildlife disease management, in a bioeconomic framework, when the wildlife host is valuable and disease transmission is density‐dependent. Disease prevalence is reduced in density‐dependent models whenever the population is harvested below a host‐density threshold a threshold population density below which disease prevalence declines and above which a disease becomes epidemic. In conventional models, the threshold is an exogenous function of disease parameters. We consider this case and find a steady state with positive disease prevalence to be optimal. Next, we consider a case in which disease dynamics are affected by both population controls and changes in human‐environmental interactions. The host‐density threshold is endogenous in this case. That is, the manager does not simply manage the population relative to the threshold, but rather manages both the population and the threshold. The optimal threshold depends on the economic and ecological trade‐offs arising from the jointly‐determined system. Accounting for this endogene‐ity can lead to reduced disease prevalence rates and higher population levels. Additionally, we show that ecological parameters that may be unimportant in conventional models that do not account for the endogeneity of the host‐density threshold are potentially important when host density threshold is recognized as endogenous.     

Bahadur deficiency of likelihood ratio tests in exponential families

For many testing problems several different tests may have optimal exact Bahadur slope. The introduction of Bahadur deficiency provides further information about the performance of such tests. Roughly speaking a sequence of tests is deficient in the sense of Bahadur of order (h_n) at a fixed alternative θ if the additional number of observations necessary to obtain the same power as the optimal test at θ is of order (h_n) as the level of significance tends to zero. In this paper it is shown that in typical testing problems in multivariate exponential families the LR test is deficient in the sense of Bahadur of order (log n).     

Construct irreducible representations of quantum groups U q (ƒ m (K))

In this paper, we construct families of irreducible representations for a class of quantum groups U _q (ƒ _m (K)). First, we give a natural construction of irreducible weight representations for U _q (ƒ _m (K)) using methods in spectral theory developed by Rosenberg. Second, we study the Whittaker model for the center of U _q (ƒ _m (K)). As a result, the structure of Whittaker representations is determined, and all irreducible Whittaker representations are explicitly constructed. Finally, we prove that the annihilator of a Whittaker representation is centrally generated.      

The threshold method for estimating total rainfall

The threshold method estimates the total rainfall F _G in a region G using the area B _G of the subregion where rainfall intensity exceeds a certain threshold value c. We model the rainfall in a region by a marked spatial point process and derive a correlation formula between F _G and B _G. This correlation depends not only on the rainfall distribution but also on the variation of number of raining sites, showing the importance of taking account of the spatial character of rainfall. In the extreme case where the variation of number of raining sites is dominant, the threshold method may work regardless of rainfall distributions and even regardless of threshold values. We use the lattice gas model from statistical physics to model raining sites and show a huge variation in the number of raining sites is theoretically possible if a phase transition occurs, that is, physically different states coexist. Also, we show by radar observation datasets that there are huge variations of raining sites actually.     

Global stability of multigroup epidemic model with group mixing and nonlinear incidence rates

In this paper, we introduce a basic reproduction number for a multigroup SEIR model with nonlinear incidence of infection and nonlinear removal functions between compartments. Then, we establish that global dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. It shows that, the basic reproduction number R₀ is a global threshold parameter in the sense that if it is less than or equal to one, the disease free equilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out; whereas if it is larger than one, there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally stable and thus the disease persists in the population. Finally, two numerical examples are also included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed result.     

Viral conductance: Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance (VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place, the new measure incorporates the fraction of infected nodes at steady state for all possible effective infection strengths. Through examples, we show that VC provides more insight about the robustness of networks than does the epidemic threshold. We also address the paradoxical robustness of Barabási–Albert preferential attachment networks. Even though this class of networks is characterized by a vanishing epidemic threshold, the epidemic requires high effective infection strength to cause a major outbreak. On the contrary, in homogeneous networks the effective infection strength does not need to be very much beyond the epidemic threshold to cause a major outbreak. To overcome computational complexities, we propose a heuristic to compute the VC for large networks with high accuracy. Simulations show that the heuristic gives an accurate approximation of the exact value of the VC. Moreover, we derive upper and lower bounds of the new measure. We also apply the new measure to assess the robustness of different types of network structures, i.e. Watts–Strogatz small world, Barabási–Albert, correlated preferential attachment, Internet AS-level, and social networks. The extensive simulations show that in Watts–Strogatz small world networks, the increase in probability of rewiring decreases the robustness of networks. Additionally, VC confirms that the irregularity in node degrees decreases the robustness of the network. Furthermore, the new measure reveals insights about design and mitigation strategies of infrastructure and social networks.     

A new approach to Matsumoto's theorem

We give a proof of Matsumoto's theorem on K ₂ of a field using techniques from homological algebra. By considering a complex associated to the action of GL(2, F) on P ₁(F) (F a field), we derive the Matsumoto presentation for H ₀ (F ^., H ₂(SL(2, F))) and, by considering the action of GL(n + 1, F) on P ⁿ (F), we prove the stability part of the theorem; namely, that H ₀(F ^., H ₂(SL(2, F))) is isomorphic to H ₂(SL(F)) = K ₂(F).     

On the determination of the impulsive Sturm–Liouville operator with the eigenparameter-dependent boundary conditions

In the present work, we consider the inverse problem for the impulsive Sturm–Liouville equations with eigenparameter-dependent boundary conditions on the whole interval (0,π) from interior spectral data. We prove two uniqueness theorems on the potential q(x) and boundary conditions for the interior inverse problem, and using the Weyl function technique, we show that if coefficients of the first boundary condition, that is, h₁,h₂, are known, then the potential function q(x) and coefficients of the second boundary condition, that is, H₁,H₂, are uniquely determined by information about the eigenfunctions at the midpoint of the interval and one spectrum or partial information on the eigenfunctions at some internal points and some of two spectra.     

The Hamiltonians of Pseudorelativistic Atoms with Finite-Mass Nuclei: The Structure of the Discrete Spectrum

We study the structure of the discrete spectrum of pseudorelativistic Hamiltonians H for atoms and positive ions with finite-mass nuclei and with n electrons, where n 1 is arbitrary. The center-of-mass motion cannot be separated, and hence we study the spectrum of the restriction H _P of H to the subspace of states with given value P of the total momentum of the system. For the operators H _P we discover a) two-sided estimates for the counting function of the discrete spectrum _d (H _P ) of H _P in terms of the counting functions of some effective two-particle operators; b) the leading term of the spectral asymptotics of _d (H _P ) near the lower bound inf _ess(H _P ) of the essential spectrum of H _P . The structure of the discrete spectrum of such systems was known earlier only for n=1.     

Determination of differential pencils with spectral parameter dependent boundary conditions from interior spectral data

Second‐order differential pencils L(p,q,h₀,h₁,H₀,H₁) on a finite interval with spectral parameter dependent boundary conditions are considered. We prove the following: (i) a set of values of eigenfunctions at the mid‐point of the interval [0,π] and one full spectrum suffice to determine differential pencils L(p,q,h₀,h₁,H₀,H₁); and (ii) some information on eigenfunctions at some an internal point and parts of two spectra suffice to determine differential pencils L(p,q,h₀,h₁,H₀,H₁). Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On products of unbounded operators

A symmetric operator X^ is attached to each operator X that leaves the domain of a given positive operator A invariant and makes the product AX symmetric. Some spectral properties of X^ are derived from those of X and, as a consequence, various conditions ensuring positivity of products of the form AX ₁ ... X _n are proved. The question of ^-complete positivity of the mapping p → Ap(X ₁,...,X _n) defined on complex polynomials in n variables is investigated. It is shown that the set ω is related to the McIntosh-Pryde joint spectrum of (X ₁,...,X _n) in case all the operators A, X ₁,...,X _n are bounded. Examples illustrating the theme of the paper are included. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.