A mathematical theory of strong emergence using multiscale variety

We argue conceptually and then demonstrate mathematically that it is possible to define a scientifically meaningful notion of strong emergence. A strong emergent property is a property of the system that cannot be found in the properties of the system's parts or in the interactions between the parts. The possibility of strong emergence follows from an ensemble perspective, which states that physical systems are only meaningful as ensembles rather than individual states. Emergent properties reside in the properties of the ensemble rather than of any individual state. A simple example is the case of a string of bits including a parity bit, i.e. the bits are constrained to have, e.g., an odd number of ON bits. This constraint is a property of the entire system that cannot be identified through any set of observations of the state of any or all subsystems of the system. It is a property that can only be found in observations of the state of the system as a whole. A collective constraint is a property of the system, however, the constraint is caused when the environment interacts with the system to select the allowable states. Although selection in this context does not necessarily correspond to biological evolution, it does suggest that evolutionary processes may lead to such emergent properties. A mathematical characterization of multiscale variety captures the implications of strong emergent properties on all subsystems of the system. Strong emergent properties result in oscillations of multiscale variety with negative values, a distinctive property. Examples of relevant applications in the case of social systems include various allocation, optimization, and functional requirements on the behavior of a system. Strongly emergent properties imply a global to local causality that is conceptually disturbing (but allowed!) in the context of conventional science, and is important to how we think about biological and social systems. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 9: 15–24, 2004     

MEDSS: A Multi-Agent Environmental Decision Support System framework for model management

Model Management Systems (MMS) have become increasingly important in handling complicated problems in Decision Support Systems (DSS). The primary goal of MMS is to facilitate the development and the utilization of quantitative models to improve decision performance. Much current research focuses on model construction. Where early research used deductive reasoning approaches to construct new models, more recent efforts use inductive reasoning mechanisms. Both approaches have their drawbacks. Deductive reasoning methods require a strong domain theory (which may not exist or may be too complex to apply) and ignore previous solving experience. Inductive reasoning methods can take advantage of precedents or prototypical cases, but do not employ domain knowledge. Both methods are limited in learning capacity. This study proposes a Multi-Agent Environmental Decision Support System, which integrates an Inductive Reasoning Agent, and an Environmental Learning Agent to perform new model formation and problem solving. New models can be generated by the coordination of both the Inductive Agent and the Deductive Agent. At the same time, a model repair process is undertaken by the Environmental Learning Agent when the prediction resulting from existing knowledge fails.     

Emergent Specializations in a Commodity Market: A Multi-Agent Model—Graduate Student Best Paper Award, CASOS 2001 Conference

It has been observed in many instances that markets have a tendency to segment themselves into distinct sub-markets. This paper presents a multi-agent model that illustrates emergent market segmentation. The model illustrates the way local optimization processes result in an emergent global improvement of social welfare.     

基于委托—代理理论的自然灾害保险模型

灾害保险是筹措防灾救灾资金的重要手段之一，文章运用博弈论中的委托—代理理论建立自然灾害的保险模型，对有关自然灾害的最优保险费率的确定及其特征进行了研究，为开展自然灾害的保险业务提供理论依据     

Nonlinear Impulse Target Problems under State Constraint: A Numerical Analysis Based on Viability Theory

We study the problem of reaching a target without leaving a prescribed set for controlled impulse dynamics. First, we provide a numerical procedure for the approximation of the set of initial conditions from which the objective can be met. Then we show that the minimum time function associated with this target problem can be approached by a sequence of value functions for suitable discrete-time systems. This can be deduced from the fact that the epigraph of the minimum time function is the set of initial conditions from which a target can be reached without leaving a constraint set for an auxiliary impulse system. In this case, the numerical procedure for the qualitative target problem can be simplified. We provide results for estimating the convergence rate of the simplified scheme.     

基于多Agent仿真的双元创新平衡与组织绩效关系研究

运用多主体仿真方法,探讨了双元创新平衡对组织绩效的作用机理,并且检验了个体间模仿学习速度、任务复杂度、人员流动、环境扰动等情境因素与双元创新平衡对组织绩效的交互影响。仿真实验的结果表明,当组织处于稳定环境下,任务复杂程度适中,并且个体间模仿学习速度中等时,双元创新平衡参数与组织绩效间呈现倒U型的影响关系;当任务过于复杂或者过于简单时,任务本身的特性削弱了双元创新平衡参数对组织绩效的影响,不同平衡模式对应的组织绩效没有明显的差距;当个体间模仿学习速度比较慢时,增强了组织的探索性,此时具有利用式创新倾向的组织可以更好地提升组织绩效水平。但当个体间模仿学习速度过快时,组织更多的倾向探索式创新对组织绩效的提升更有利;当组织存在人员流动和外部环境扰动时,更多的利用式创新可以提升组织对现有知识进行重组和整合的能力,从而更好地适应环境的动态变化。     

负面口碑、社会互动与创新扩散:基于小世界网络的仿真

为探究创新扩散失败的原因及作用机理,在创新扩散微观模型中引入负面口碑,建立个体在社会互动影响下的决策模型,并进行小世界网络中的多智能体仿真分析,研究网络结构、抵抗领袖比例、意见领袖创新性和社会规范约束力对创新扩散的影响。结果表明,考虑负面口碑的创新扩散曲线呈“S”形变化,但扩散深度受限;高度聚集的社会网络更有利于创新扩散。抵抗领袖比例越高,创新扩散速度和深度越小,且负面口碑作用范围越大;当抵抗领袖比例高于意见领袖比例时则会导致扩散失败。意见领袖创新性的提高可以缓解负面口碑的消极影响并促进创新扩散。社会规范约束力对创新扩散深度的影响随网络结构变化呈现不同态势。研究不但丰富了现有创新扩散理论,而且对开发创新推广策略具有指导意义。     

Dependence Graphs: Dependence Within and Between Groups

This paper applies the two-party dependence theory (Castelfranchi, Cesta and Miceli, 1992, in Y. Demazeau and E. Werner (Eds.) Decentralized AI-3, Elsevier, North Holland) to modelling multiagent and group dependence. These have theoretical potentialities for the study of emerging groups and collective structures, and more generally for understanding social and organisational complexity, and practical utility for both social-organisational and agent systems purposes. In the paper, the dependence theory is extended to describe multiagent links, with a special reference to group and collective phenomena, and is proposed as a framework for the study of emerging social structures, such as groups and collectives. In order to do so, we propose to extend the notion of dependence networks (applied to a single agent) to dependence graphs (applied to an agency). In its present version, the dependence theory is argued to provide (a) a theoretical instrument for the study of social complexity, and (b) a computational system for managing the negotiation process in competitive contexts and for monitoring complexity in organisational and other cooperative contexts.     

Research in decision theory: A personal perspective

This essay offers a personal view of developments in two main areas of decision theory — decision making under risk and uncertainty, and social choice theory — with emphasis on the past half century and on likely future directions. Remarks on helpful research practices are also included.     

基于前景理论的建筑高危岗位人岗匹配冲突仿真研究

为了研究建筑高危岗位应聘人员的择岗特征,本文基于前景理论价值函数构建了人员风险岗位选择的元胞自动机模型进行仿真实验,而后对所得实验数据进行层次回归分析。结果表明,选择高危岗位的人员一般具有高估收益、低估事故损失和概率及低损失厌恶的心理特质,这与岗位要求相违背,即存在“高危人岗匹配悖论”;高基本工资、高安全激励和低风险补偿金的组合薪酬模式有助于高危岗位的人岗匹配;选聘对损失持续敏感的人员能有效降低安全风险;提高人员事故概率和损失预期、强化损失厌恶感知也有助于保障安全;针对人员择岗行为,损失厌恶与概率感知之间存在互补效应,而损失效用递减与损失厌恶、概率感知之间存在替代效应。     

市场导向、多主体协同与创新扩散:基于复杂网络的动态仿真

市场导向与多主体协同关系密切,是提升创新扩散效率的主要驱动要素。本文首先从协同关系和创新收益两个层面,构建空间结构和有效预期的演化机制,生成复杂网络模型,对多主体协同的创新扩散过程进行动态仿真。其次通过细化市场导向理论在用户需求、竞争驱动和职能协同等不同维度的作用路径,深入分析了市场导向对多主体协同的影响机制。研究表明:(1)市场导向对多主体协同的影响与网络结构动态特征具有高度相关性;(2)少量的用户需求与竞争驱动导向对多主体协同的效益提升最为显著,职能协同导向的影响则呈现周期性“倒U型”波动特征;(3)用户需求导向对多主体协同的创新收益驱动效应最明显,竞争驱动导向的推动效果次之。     

Complex adaptive systems and game theory: An unlikely union

A Complex Adaptive System is a collection of autonomous, heterogeneous agents, whose behavior is defined with a limited number of rules. A Game Theory is a mathematical construct that assumes a small number of rational players who have a limited number of actions or strategies available to them. The CAS method has the potential to alleviate some of the shortcomings of GT. On the other hand, CAS researchers are always looking for a realistic way to define interactions among agents. GT offers an attractive option for defining the rules of such interactions in a way that is both potentially consistent with observed real‐world behavior and subject to mathematical interpretation. This article reports on the results of an effort to build a CAS system that utilizes GT for determining the actions of individual agents. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 16,24–42, 2010     

Crisis in complex social systems: A social theory view illustrated with the chilean case

The article argues that crises are a distinctive feature of complex social systems. A quest for connectivity of communication leads to increase systems' own robustness by constantly producing further connections. When some of these connections have been successful in recent operations, the system tends to reproduce the emergent pattern, thereby engaging in a non‐reflexive, repetitive escalation of more of the same communication. This compulsive growth of systemic communication in crisis processes, or logic of excess, resembles the dynamic of self‐organized criticality. Accordingly, we first construct the conceptual foundations of our approach. Second, we present three core assumptions related to the generative mechanism of social crises, their temporal transitions (incubation, contagion, restructuring), and the suitable modeling techniques to represent them. Third, we illustrate the conceptual approach with a percolation model of the crisis in Chilean education system. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 13–23, 2016     

Exponential Sums and Coding Theory: A Review

This article is a survey of several recent applications of methods from analytic number theory to research in coding theory, including results on Kloosterman codes, binary Goppa codes, and prime phase shift sequences. The mathematical methods focus on exponential sums, in particular Kloosterman sums. The interrelationships with the Weil–Carlitz–Uchiyama bound, results on Hecke operators, theorems of Bombieri and Deligne and the Eichler–Selberg trace formula are reviewed.     

Challenge Versus Exchange in Collective Decision Making: A Comparison of Two Simulation Models Based on Simulated Data

In collective decision making, actors can use different influence strategies to get their way. Differences in influence strategies may, or may not, be connected to differences in collective outcomes. This research studies two influence strategies: the exchange strategy and the challenge strategy. In the existing literature, these strategies are analyzed and compared using simulation models in which actor behavior regarding influence attempts based on one of the strategies is modeled explicitly. Until now, these models have been tested only empirically on limited data sets. However, a theoretical test is necessary to gain more precise insights in the effect of characteristics of collective decision making situations on the collective outcomes. In the present research, computer simulations are used in a structured comparison of two competing models (the iterative exchange model and challenge model). The analyses show that the outcomes of both models are captured for a large part in the actor characteristics on the issues. Besides this, the expected directions of challenges and exchanges play a major part in explaining the outcomes of the models. This research shows that the use of simulated data allows a structured search of the input space, which led to new insights into the iterative exchange model and challenge model, and therefore in the exchange strategy and the challenge strategy.     

双寡头垄断结构下的技术授权及社会福利分析——基于内生技术创新的视角

在具有水平差异且进行古诺竞争的双寡头结构中考虑技术拥有企业内生决定降低成本技术的创新程度,分析不同授权方式下技术拥有者利润、消费者剩余以及社会总福利的变化,并对不同授权方式下的技术创新程度进行比较。研究表明:技术拥有者通过双重收费、特许权收费方式总能实现利润增加,且双重收费方式能带来最大利润,而固定收费方式可能降低其利润;固定收费方式下消费者剩余、社会总福利高于双重收费,更高于特许权收费方式;技术创新程度与技术授权方式以及产品替代程度有关,且无论产品的替代程度如何,双重收费方式下的技术创新程度达到最大。     

Brill–Noether Theory for Non-Special Linear Systems II: Connectedness and Irreducibility

Let C be a general smooth curve of genus g and let g _d ⁿ be a general non-special linear system on C. Under some numerical conditions we prove the irreducibility of the scheme parametrizing secant space divisors for g _d ⁿ . We also prove connectedness under some weaker conditions.