A Backlog Inventory Model During Restricted Sale Periods

Optimal purchasing policies are derived for a continuous review inventory system in which backlogs are permissible and temporary price discounts are available. This paper derives such policies assuming that the sale price is not available at the regularly-scheduled replenishment time. Results indicate that, under specific conditions, maximum positive cost savings are generated when a special order is placed at the end of the sale period.     

A flexible and generic approach to dynamic modelling of supply chains

In this paper, we present a new modelling approach for realistic supply chain simulation. The model provides an experimental environment for informed comparison between different supply chain policies. A basic simulation model for a generic node, from which a supply chain network can be built, has been developed using an object-oriented approach. This generic model allows the incorporation of the information and physical systems and decision-making policies used by each node. The object-oriented approach gives the flexibility in specifying the supply chain configuration and operation decisions, and policies. Stochastic simulations are achieved by applying Latin Supercube Sampling to the uncertain variables in descending order of importance, which reduces the number of simulations required. We also present a case study to show that the model is applicable to a real-life situation for dynamic stochastic studies.     

A comparison of outbound dispatch policies for integrated inventory and transportation decisions

This paper investigates the impact of alternative outbound dispatch policies on integrated stock replenishment and transportation decisions. The logistics literature reports that two different types of such policies are popular in current practice. These are time-based and quantity-based dispatch policies. Considering the case of stochastic demand, the paper presents analytical and numerical results showing that the cost savings obtained through quantity-based policies can be substantial. However, under a quantity-based policy, a specific delivery time cannot be quoted when the customer places an order. Hence, the paper also investigates the cost and customer waiting time implications of hybrid policies and demonstrates that hybrid policies are superior to time-based policies in terms of the resulting costs. Furthermore, although hybrid policies are not superior to quantity-based policies in terms of the resulting costs, they are superior in terms of a service measure which is quantified by the long-run average cumulative waiting time.     

A semidefinite programming approach to the optimal control of a single server queueing system with imposed second moment constraints

Classical analyses of the dynamic control of multi-class queueing systems frequently yield simple priority policies as optimal. However, such policies can often result in excessive queue lengths for the low priority jobs/customers. We propose a stochastic optimisation problem in the context of a two class M/M/1 system which seeks to mitigate this through the imposition of constraints on the second moments of queue lengths. We analyse the performance of two families of parametrised heuristic policies for this problem. To evaluate these policies we develop lower bounds on the optimum cost through the achievable region approach. A numerical study points to the strength of performance of threshold policies and to directions for future research.     

Mean,variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review

This paper is a survey of papers which make use of nonstandard Markov decision process criteria (i.e., those which do not seek simply to optimize expected returns per unit time or expected discounted return). It covers infinite-horizon nondiscounted formulations, infinite-horizon discounted formulations, and finite-horizon formulations. For problem formulations in terms solely of the probabilities of being in each state and taking each action, policy equivalence results are given which allow policies to be restricted to the class of Markov policies or to the randomizations of deterministic Markov policies. For problems which cannot be stated in such terms, in terms of the primitive state setI, formulations involving a redefinition of the states are examined.The author would like to thank two referees for a very thorough and helpful referceing of the original article and for the extra references (Refs. 47–52) now added to the original reference list.     

Optimal budgetary and monetary policies under uncertainty: A stochastic control approach

In this paper, we determine optimal budgetary and monetary policies for Austria using a small macroeconometric model. We use a Keynesian model of the Austrian economy, called FINPOL1, estimated by ordinary least squares, which relates the main objective variables of Austrian economic policies, such as the growth rate of real gross domestic product, the rate of unemployment, the rate of inflation, the balance of payments, and the ratio of the federal budget deficit to GDP, to fiscal and monetary policy instruments, namely expenditures and revenues of the federal budget and money supply. Optimal fiscal and monetary policies are calculated for the model under a quadratic objective function using the algorithm OPTCON for the optimum control of nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems. Several control experiments are performed in order to assess the influence of different kinds of uncertainty on optimal budgetary and monetary policies. Apart from deterministic optimization runs, different assumptions about parameter uncertainties are introduced; the results of these different stochastic optimum control experiments are compared and interpreted.     

A Push–Pull Network with Infinite Supply of Work

We consider a two-node multiclass queueing network with two types of jobs moving through two servers in opposite directions, and there is infinite supply of work of both types. We assume exponential processing times and preemptive resume service. We identify a family of policies which keep both servers busy at all times and keep the queues between the servers positive recurrent. We analyze two specific policies in detail, obtaining steady state distributions. We perform extensive calculations of expected queue lengths under these policies. We compare this network with the Kumar–Seidman–Rybko–Stolyar network, in which there are two random streams of arriving jobs rather than infinite supply of work.     

A new strong optimality criterion for nonstationary Markov decision processes

This paper deals with a new optimality criterion consisting of the usual three average criteria and the canonical triplet (totally so-called strong average-canonical optimality criterion) and introduces the concept of a strong average-canonical policy for nonstationary Markov decision processes, which is an extension of the canonical policies of Herna′ndez-Lerma and Lasserre [16] (pages: 77) for the stationary Markov controlled processes. For the case of possibly non-uniformly bounded rewards and denumerable state space, we first construct, under some conditions, a solution to the optimality equations (OEs), and then prove that the Markov policies obtained from the OEs are not only optimal for the three average criteria but also optimal for all finite horizon criteria with a sequence of additional functions as their terminal rewards (i.e. strong average-canonical optimal). Also, some properties of optimal policies and optimal average value convergence are discussed. Moreover, the error bound in average reward between a rolling horizon policy and a strong average-canonical optimal policy is provided, and then a rolling horizon algorithm for computing strong average ε(>0)-optimal Markov policies is given.     

A change point estimation problem related to age replacement policies

The mean time to failure (MTTF) function plays a vital role in the theory of age replacement policies. The point at which the MTTF function changes trend has important implications in the context of cost optimization in such policies. We develop a general methodology for change point estimation in this scenario and also establish the strong consistency of the proposed estimator. We also examine the performance of our estimator by applying it to simulated and real life data sets.     

带干扰的一类相依风险模型

本文将古典风险模型推广为带干扰的一类相依风险模型。在此风险模型中,保单到达过程为一Pois-son过程,而索赔到达过程为保单到达过程的P-稀疏过程。利用鞅的方法得到了破产概率和Lundberg不等式。     

Multi-echelon systems: A service measure perspective

This paper reviews the most important results on divergent multi-echelon systems. In particular, we concentrate on the interactions between the elements that constitute such a multi-echelon system, in order to determine several service measures (e.g. external customer service level and inventory holding costs). We distinguish between two types of policies: installation stock and echelon stock policies. A comparison between these two types of policies revealed that the complexity of the analysis is concentrated at different aspects, which are discussed by reveiwing the most important papers on both types. Special attention is given to the applicability of the models. Extensions to divergent multi-echelon systems with more than two stages are also treated.     

A minimax distribution-free procedure for a newsvendor problem with free shipping

In this paper, we study the optimal policies of retailers who operate their inventory with a single period model (i.e., newsvendor model) under a free shipping offer where a fixed shipping fee is exempted if an order quantity is greater than or equal to a given minimum quantity. Zhou et al. (2009) have explored this model, and we further investigate their analysis for the optimal ordering policies which they did not sufficiently develop. Based on the investigation, we extend the base model in order to deal with the practically important aspect of inventory management when the exact distribution function of demand is not available. We incorporate the aspect into the base model and present the optimal policies for the extended model with a numerical example. Finally, we conduct extensive numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of the extended model and analyze the impacts of minimum free shipping quantity and the fixed shipping fee on the performance.     

Scheduler – A System for Staff Planning

In this paper we propose a unified formulation based on (min?,+) algebra to express the dynamics of pull control policies for serial single product manufacturing systems. For policies such as basestock, kanban, extended kanban and generalized kanban, the formulation has the same parametric form with different parameters for each policy. To calculate these parameters efficiently, (min?,+) algebra tools are used. This formulation allows us to identify under what parameter values two different policies have the same dynamics behavior. This has been applied to extended kanban and generalized kanban.     

Optimal Screening Policies for Hepatitis A

This paper presents a simple method of determining optimal screening policies for detecting immunity to Hepatitis A virus in travellers to areas of high endemicity. The method is constrained by the requirement that screening policies be kept simple in order to ensure their wide implementation.     

A marginal cost analysis for prevetive replacement policies

Some well known preventive replacement policies are each characterized by a single parameter which governs the sequence of planned replacements. In this paper we define and compute for any one of these policies the marginal cost of a planned replacement in terms of the policy parameter. This function is used to obtain the equation of optimality, with respect to two common objective functions: the expected cost per unit time and the expected total discounted costs, and to investigate the existence of a unique finite solution. Moreover, the marginal cost notion provides reasoning to the mathematical results of the models and thereby clarifies the effect of the various components of the model on these results. This better insight into models is perhaps the most important benefit of a marginal cost analysis.     

转轨经济中财政与金融政策的一个基本原则

对转轨经济中由政府部门、企业和个人所组成的经济系统建立了一个货币经济动力学模型.通过对模型的均衡分析和动力学分析,阐明了在转轨经济中特别是当经济处于不景气情形时,财政、金融政策的一个基本原则是实行价格稳定化政策.     

论保险投资新政对寿险公司投资收益的影响

近年来,保险监管部门颁布了多项保险投资新政,保险资金运用上的限制得到了放松.保险投资新政的实施对寿险公司投资收益有着怎样的影响呢?运用双重差分模型(DID模型),定量估计了保险投资新政实施前后的寿险公司投资收益的具体变化,并分析了何种因素对寿险公司的投资收益有显著影响.研究发现,保险投资新政对寿险公司的总投资收益率的提高有着积极的影响,保险投资新政对不同规模的寿险公司投资收益的影响存在着差异,仅考虑政策的调整因素,大型寿险公司的总投资收益率增量超过中小型寿险公司1.13%,综合考虑其它指标的影响后,其总投资收益率增量仍然超过中小型寿险公司0.097%.实证结果为保险监管部门的政策实施以及寿险公司的经营提供了新思路.     

PETROLEUM RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT: A RESERVOIR ECONOMIC APPROACH

This paper outlines an approach to investigate optimal depletion policies and economic policy issues for petroleum reservoirs. We integrate an economic understanding into the more detailed engineering studies and petroleum reservoir depletion technology. The paper quantifies the microeconomic adjustment of the exploitation of different types of petroleum reservoirs including the impact which economic parameters have on the resource recovery.     

A total standard WIP estimation method for wafer fabrication

The standard work-in-process (WIP) level in a wafer fabrication factory is an important parameter which can be properly used to trigger the decision of when to release specific wafer lots. There are many WIP-based release control policies which have been proven to be effective for wafer fabrication manufacturing, few methods have been proposed to find the suitable WIP-level as a parameter for these release policies. This paper proposes a queueing network-based algorithm to determine the total standard WIP level so that the Fixed-WIP release algorithm to determine the total standard WIP level so that the Fixed-WIP release control policy can apply. A numerical example is provided to elaborate the algorithm. A simulation model of a real-world wafer fabrication factory in Taiwan is built and analyzed. Results of simulation experiment indicate that under the Fixed-WIP control policy, the total standard WIP level estimated from this study achieves a target throughput rate while keeping the corresponding cycle time relatively low. Results also demonstrate that the queueing network-based algorithm is a very useful method to determine the standard WIP level efficiently.