Theoretical analyses of stock correlations affected by subprime crisis and total assets: Network properties and corresponding physical mechanisms

In the field of statistical mechanics and system science, it is acknowledged that the financial crisis has a profound influence on stock market. However, the influence of total asset of enterprise on stock quote was not considered in the previous studies. In this work, a modified cross-correlation matrix that focuses on the influence of total asset on stock quote is introduced into the analysis of the stocks collected from Asian and American stock markets, which is different from the previous studies. The key results are obtained as follows. Firstly, stock is more greatly correlated with big asset than with small asset. Secondly, the higher the correlation coefficient among stocks, the larger the eigenvector is. Thirdly, in different periods, like the pre-subprime crisis period and the peak of subprime crisis period, Asian stock quotes show that the component of the third eigenvector of the cross-correlation matrix decreases with the asset of the enterprise decreasing.Fourthly, by simulating the threshold network, the small network constructed by 10 stocks with large assets can show the large network state constructed by 30 stocks. In this research we intend to fully explain the physical mechanism for understanding the historical correlation between stocks and provide risk control strategies in the future.     

Maximal spanning trees,asset graphs and random matrix denoising in the analysis of dynamics of financial networks

We study the time dependence of maximal spanning trees and asset graphs based on correlation matrices of stock returns. In these networks the nodes represent companies and links are related to the correlation coefficients between them. Special emphasis is given to the comparison between ordinary and denoised correlation matrices. The analysis of single- and multi-step survival ratios of the corresponding networks reveals that the ordinary correlation matrices are more stable in time than the denoised ones. Our study also shows that some information about the cluster structure of the companies is lost in the denoising procedure. Cluster structure that makes sense from an economic point of view exists, and can easily be observed in networks based on denoised correlation matrices. However, this structure is somewhat clearer in the networks based on ordinary correlation matrices. Some technical aspects, such as the random matrix denoising procedure, are also presented.     

The use of dynamical networks to detect the hierarchical organization of financial market sectors

Two kinds of filtered networks: minimum spanning trees (MSTs) and planar maximally filtered graphs (PMFGs) are constructed from dynamical correlations computed over a moving window. We study the evolution over time of both hierarchical and topological properties of these graphs in relation to market fluctuations. We verify that the dynamical PMFG preserves the same hierarchical structure as the dynamical MST, providing in addition a more significant and richer structure, a stronger robustness and dynamical stability. Central and peripheral stocks are differentiated by using a combination of different topological measures. We find stocks well connected and central; stocks well connected but peripheral; stocks poorly connected but central; stocks poorly connected and peripheral. It results that the Financial sector plays a central role in the entire system. The robustness, stability and persistence of these findings are verified by changing the time window and by performing the computations on different time periods. We discuss these results and the economic meaning of this hierarchical positioning.     

Equity trees and graphs via information theory

We investigate the similarities and differences between two measures of the relationship between equities traded in financial markets. Our measures are the correlation coefficients and the mutual information. In the context of financial markets correlation coefficients are well established whereas mutual information has not previously been as well studied despite its theoretically appealing properties. We show that asset trees which are derived from either the correlation coefficients or the mutual information have a mixture of both similarities and differences at the individual equity level and at the macroscopic level. We then extend our consideration from trees to graphs using the “genus 0” condition recently introduced in order to study the networks of equities.     

Clustering of financial time series with application to index and enhanced index tracking portfolio

A stochastic-optimization technique based on time series cluster analysis is described for index tracking and enhanced index tracking problems. Our methodology solves the problem in two steps, i.e., by first selecting a subset of stocks and then setting the weight of each stock as a result of an optimization process (asset allocation). Present formulation takes into account constraints on the number of stocks and on the fraction of capital invested in each of them, whilst not including transaction costs. Computational results based on clustering selection are compared to those of random techniques and show the importance of clustering in noise reduction and robust forecasting applications, in particular for enhanced index tracking.     

Minimum spanning trees for community detection

A simple deterministic algorithm for community detection is provided by using two rounds of minimum spanning trees. By comparing the first round minimum spanning tree (1st-MST) with the second round spanning tree (2nd-MST) of the network, communities are detected and their overlapping nodes are also identified. To generate the two MSTs, a distance matrix is defined and computed from the adjacent matrix of the network. Compared with the resistance matrix or the communicability matrix used in community detection in the literature, the proposed distance matrix is very simple in computation. The proposed algorithm is tested on real world social networks, graphs which are failed by the modularity maximization, and the LFR benchmark graphs for community detection.     

The Index cohesive effect on stock market correlations

We present empirical examination and reassessment of the functional role of the market Index, using datasets of stock returns for eight years, by analyzing and comparing the results for two very different markets: 1) the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), representing a large, mature market, and 2) the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE), representing a small, young market. Our method includes special collective (holographic) analysis of stock-Index correlations, of nested stock correlations (including the Index as an additional ghost stock) and of bare stock correlations (after subtraction of the Index return from the stocks returns). Our findings verify and strongly substantiate the assumed functional role of the index in the financial system as a cohesive force between stocks, i.e., the correlations between stocks are largely due to the strong correlation between each stock and the Index (the adhesive effect), rather than inter-stock dependencies. The Index adhesive and cohesive effects on the market correlations in the two markets are presented and compared in a reduced 3-D principal component space of the correlation matrices (holographic presentation). The results provide new insights into the interplay between an index and its constituent stocks in TASE-like versus NYSE-like markets.     

Correlation and volatility in an Indian stock market: A random matrix approach

We examine the volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of correlation of stocks and quantify the volatility using the random matrix approach. First we discuss trends observed in the pattern of stock prices in the Bombay Stock Exchange for the three-year period 2000–2002. Random matrix analysis is then applied to study the relationship between the coupling of stocks and volatility. The study uses daily returns of 70 stocks for successive time windows of length 85 days for the year 2001. We compare the properties of matrix C of correlations between price fluctuations in time regimes characterized by different volatilities. Our analyses reveal that (i) the largest (deviating) eigenvalue of C correlates highly with the volatility of the index, (ii) there is a shift in the distribution of the components of the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue across regimes of different volatilities, (iii) the inverse participation ratio for this eigenvector anti-correlates significantly with the market fluctuations and finally, (iv) this eigenvector of C can be used to set up a Correlation Index, CI whose temporal evolution is significantly correlated with the volatility of the overall market index.     

Principal regression analysis and the index leverage effect

We revisit the index leverage effect, that can be decomposed into a volatility effect and a correlation effect. We investigate the latter using a matrix regression analysis, that we call ‘Principal Regression Analysis’ (PRA) and for which we provide some analytical (using Random Matrix Theory) and numerical benchmarks. We find that downward index trends increase the average correlation between stocks (as measured by the most negative eigenvalue of the conditional correlation matrix), and makes the market mode more uniform. Upward trends, on the other hand, also increase the average correlation between stocks but rotates the corresponding market mode away from uniformity. There are two time scales associated to these effects, a short one on the order of a month (20 trading days), and a longer time scale on the order of a year. We also find indications of a leverage effect for sectorial correlations as well, which reveals itself in the second and third mode of the PRA.     

Network structure of cross-correlations among the world market indices

We report the results of an investigation of the properties of the networks formed by the cross-correlations of the daily and weekly index changes of 143 stock market indices from 59 different countries. Analysis of the asset graphs, minimum spanning trees (MST) and planar maximally filtered graphs (PMFG) of the afermentioned networks confirms that globalization has been increasing in recent years. North American and European markets are observed to be much more strongly connected among themselves compared to the integration with the other geographical regions. Surprisingly, the integration of East Asian markets among themselves as well as to the Western markets is found to be rather weak. MST and PMFG of both daily and weekly return correlations indicates that the clustering of the indices is mostly geographical. The French fsbf250 index is found to be most important node of the MST and PMFG based on several graph centrality measures.     

Spectrum,intensity and coherence in weighted networks of a financial market

We construct a correlation matrix based financial network for a set of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) traded stocks with stocks corresponding to nodes and the links between them added one after the other, according to the strength of the correlation between the nodes. The eigenvalue spectrum of the correlation matrix reflects the structure of the market, which also shows in the cluster structure of the emergent network. The stronger and more compact a cluster is, the earlier the eigenvalue representing the corresponding business sector occurs in the spectrum. On the other hand, if groups of stocks belonging to a given business sector are considered as a fully connected subgraph of the final network, their intensity and coherence can be monitored as a function of time. This approach indicates to what extent the business sector classifications are visible in market prices, which in turn enables us to gauge the extent of group-behaviour exhibited by stocks belonging to a given business sector.     

Correlation based networks of equity returns sampled at different time horizons

We investigate the planar maximally filtered graphs of the portfolio of the 300 most capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange during the time period 2001–2003. Topological properties such as the average length of shortest paths, the betweenness and the degree are computed on different planar maximally filtered graphs generated by sampling the returns at different time horizons ranging from 5 min up to one trading day. This analysis confirms that the selected stocks compose a hierarchical system progressively structuring as the sampling time horizon increases. Finally, a cluster formation, associated to economic sectors, is quantitatively investigated.     

Effect of changing data size on eigenvalues in the Korean and Japanese stock markets

In this study, we attempted to determine how eigenvalues change, according to random matrix theory (RMT), in stock market data as the number of stocks comprising the correlation matrix changes. Specifically, we tested for changes in the eigenvalue properties as a function of the number and type of stocks in the correlation matrix. We determined that the value of the eigenvalue increases in proportion with the number of stocks. Furthermore, we noted that the largest eigenvalue maintains its identical properties, regardless of the number and type, whereas other eigenvalues evidence different features.     

Three body clusters in finite nuclei (I). 4He

A method is developed for the treatment of the Bethe-Faddeev three body cluster equations in finite nuclei. A matrix method is employed to sum the three hole line graphs in ⁴He. For each value of a constant shift C in the intermediate state oscillator spectrum we have calculated: (i) the two body bound state binding energy self-consistently in the Brueckner approximation, (ii) the energy contribution from three hole line graphs, and (iii) the effect of single particle potential insertion in particle lines. The most important dependence on C comes from those graphs containing single particle insertions and their effect is to make the sum of (i) + (ii) + (iii) much less dependent upon C than (i) alone. The three hole line contribution for ⁴He comes mainly from third order graphs. Effects of truncation of the matrix are severe and calculations with a larger matrix could alter the quantitative but probably not the qualitative results.     

Analysis of cross-correlations between financial markets after the 2008 crisis

We analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of the index returns of the main financial markets after the 2008 crisis using methods of random matrix theory. We test the eigenvalues of C for universal properties of random matrices and find that the majority of the cross-correlation coefficients arise from randomness. We show that the eigenvector of the largest deviating eigenvalue of C represents a global market itself. We reveal that high volatility of financial markets is observed at the same times with high correlations between them which lowers the risk diversification potential even if one constructs a widely internationally diversified portfolio of stocks. We identify and compare the connection and cluster structure of markets before and after the crisis using minimal spanning and ultrametric hierarchical trees. We find that after the crisis, the co-movement degree of the markets increases. We also highlight the key financial markets of pre and post crisis using main centrality measures and analyze the changes. We repeat the study using rank correlation and compare the differences. Further implications are discussed.     

Can we predict crashes? The case of the Brazilian stock market

In this study we analyze Brazilian stock prices to detect the development of bubbles and crashes in individual stocks using a log-periodic equation. We implement a genetic algorithm to calibrate the parameters of the model and we test the methodology for the most liquid stocks traded on the Brazilian Stock Market (Bovespa). In order to evaluate whether this approach is useful we employ nonparametric statistics and test whether returns after the predicted crash are negative and lower than returns before the crash. Empirical results are consistent with the prediction hypothesis, e.g., the method applied can be used to forecast the end of asset bubbles or large corrections in stock prices.     

Comparing the structure of an emerging market with a mature one under global perturbation

In this paper we investigate the Tehran stock exchange (TSE) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in terms of perturbed correlation matrices. To perturb a stock market, there are two methods, namely local and global perturbation. In the local method, we replace a correlation coefficient of the cross-correlation matrix with one calculated from two Gaussian-distributed time series, whereas in the global method, we reconstruct the correlation matrix after replacing the original return series with Gaussian-distributed time series. The local perturbation is just a technical study. We analyze these markets through two statistical approaches, random matrix theory (RMT) and the correlation coefficient distribution. By using RMT, we find that the largest eigenvalue is an influence that is common to all stocks and this eigenvalue has a peak during financial shocks. We find there are a few correlated stocks that make the essential robustness of the stock market but we see that by replacing these return time series with Gaussian-distributed time series, the mean values of correlation coefficients, the largest eigenvalues of the stock markets and the fraction of eigenvalues that deviate from the RMT prediction fall sharply in both markets. By comparing these two markets, we can see that the DJIA is more sensitive to global perturbations. These findings are crucial for risk management and portfolio selection.     

Clustering and information in correlation based financial networks

Networks of companies can be constructed by using return correlations. A crucial issue in this approach is to select the relevant correlations from the correlation matrix. In order to study this problem, we start from an empty graph with no edges where the vertices correspond to stocks. Then, one by one, we insert edges between the vertices according to the rank of their correlation strength, resulting in a network called asset graph. We study its properties, such as topologically different growth types, number and size of clusters and clustering coefficient. These properties, calculated from empirical data, are compared against those of a random graph. The growth of the graph can be classified according to the topological role of the newly inserted edge. We find that the type of growth which is responsible for creating cycles in the graph sets in much earlier for the empirical asset graph than for the random graph, and thus reflects the high degree of networking present in the market. We also find the number of clusters in the random graph to be one order of magnitude higher than for the asset graph. At a critical threshold, the random graph undergoes a radical change in topology related to percolation transition and forms a single giant cluster, a phenomenon which is not observed for the asset graph. Differences in mean clustering coefficient lead us to conclude that most information is contained roughly within 10% of the edges.Received: 11 December 2003, Published online: 14 May 2004PACS: 89.65.-s Social and economic systems - 89.75.-k Complex systems - 89.90. + n Other topics in areas of applied and interdisciplinary physics (restricted to new topics in section 89)     

Correlation matrix of a completely polarized, statistically stationary electromagnetic field

It is shown that, for a 3 x 3 correlation matrix Wij(r, r, omega), (i, j = x, y, z) of the electric vector of a random, stationary electromagnetic field to represent a field that is completely polarized at a point r and frequency omega, each element of the matrix must factorize. More precisely, a necessary and sufficient condition for the correlation matrix to represent a fully polarized field at a point r is that the matrix has the form Wij(r, r, omega) = epsilon(i)*(r, omega)epsilon(j)(r, omega), where epsilon(i)(r, omega) (i = x, y, z) are deterministic functions, i.e., that all pairs of the Cartesian components of the electric field at a point r and frequency omega are completely correlated.     

Cryptocurrency Market Consolidation in 2020–2021

Time series of price returns for 80 of the most liquid cryptocurrencies listed on Binance are investigated for the presence of detrended cross-correlations. A spectral analysis of the detrended correlation matrix and a topological analysis of the minimal spanning trees calculated based on this matrix are applied for different positions of a moving window. The cryptocurrencies become more strongly cross-correlated among themselves than they used to be before. The average cross-correlations increase with time on a specific time scale in a way that resembles the Epps effect amplification when going from past to present. The minimal spanning trees also change their topology and, for the short time scales, they become more centralized with increasing maximum node degrees, while for the long time scales they become more distributed, but also more correlated at the same time. Apart from the inter-market dependencies, the detrended cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market and some traditional markets, like the stock markets, commodity markets, and Forex, are also analyzed. The cryptocurrency market shows higher levels of cross-correlations with the other markets during the same turbulent periods, in which it is strongly cross-correlated itself.