Defence resource distribution between protection and decoys for constant resource stockpiling pace

The paper considers the optimal resource distribution between increasing protection of genuine elements and deploying decoys (false targets) in a situation when the attacker's and defender's resources are stockpiling and the resource increment rate is constant. It is assumed that the system must perform within an exogenously given time horizon and the attack time probability is uniformly distributed over this horizon. Series and parallel systems are considered. The defender optimizes the resource distribution in order to minimize the system vulnerability. The attacker cannot distinguish genuine and false elements and can attack a randomly chosen subset of the elements.     

False targets efficiency in defense strategy

The paper analyzes the efficiency of deploying false targets as part of a defense strategy. It is assumed that the defender has a single object that can be destroyed by the attacker. The defender distributes its resource between deploying false targets and protecting the object from outside attacks. The attacker cannot distinguish the false targets from the defended object (genuine target). Therefore the attacker has no preferences for attacking one target rather than another target. The defender decides how many false targets to deploy whereas the attacker decides how many targets to attack. The article assumes that both the defender and attacker have complete information and full rationality. The optimal number of false targets and the attacked targets are obtained for the case of fixed and variable resources of the defender and the attacker as solutions of a non-cooperative game between the two agents.     

Optimal defence of single object with imperfect false targets

The paper considers an object exposed to external intentional attacks. The defender distributes its resource between deploying false targets and protecting the object. The false targets are not perfect and there is a nonzero probability that a false target can be detected by the attacker. Once the attacker has detected a certain number of false targets, it ignores them and chooses such number of undetected targets to attack that maximizes the probability of the object destruction. The defender decides how many false targets to deploy in order to minimize the probability of the object destruction assuming that the attacker uses the most harmful strategy to attack. The optimal number of false targets and the optimal number of attacked targets are obtained for the case of single and multiple types of the false targets. A methodology of finding the optimal defence strategy under uncertain contest intensity is suggested.     

Parallel systems under two sequential attacks with imperfect detection of the first attack outcome

The paper compares the efficiency of single and double attack against a system consisting of identical parallel elements. An attacker maximizes the system vulnerability (probability of total destruction). In order to destroy the system, the attacker distributes its constrained resource optimally across two attacks and chooses the number of elements to be attacked in the first attack. The attacker observes which elements are destroyed and not destroyed in the first attack and allocates its remaining resource into attacking the remaining elements in the second attack. The paper considers two types of identification errors: wrong identification of a destroyed element as not destroyed, and wrong identification of a not destroyed element as destroyed. First, the influence of the identification error probabilities on the optimal attack strategy against a system with a fixed number of elements is analysed. Thereafter, a minmax two-period game between the attacker and the defender is considered, in which the defender in the first period distributes its constrained resource between deploying redundant elements and protecting them against the attack in the second period. It is shown how the identification error probabilities affect the defence strategy.     

Parallel systems under two sequential attacks with contest intensity variation

Single and double attacks against a system of parallel elements are analyzed. The vulnerability of each element depends on an attacker-defender contest success function. The contest intensity may change from the first to the second attack as determined by a contest intensity variation factor. The defender allocates its resource between deploying elements to provide redundancy, and protecting each element. The attacker allocates its resource optimally across the two attacks, may attack a subset of the elements in the first attack, observes which elements are destroyed in the first attack, and attacks all surviving elements in the second attack. A minmax two period game is analyzed where the defender moves first and the attacker moves second. The paper shows how the contest intensity variation factor affects the defense and attack strategies.     

Separation in homogeneous systems with independent identical elements

The paper considers strategic defense and attack of a system which can be separated into independent identical homogeneous parallel elements. The defender distributes its resource between separation of the elements and their protection from outside attacks. The attacker distributes its effort evenly among all attacked elements. The vulnerability of each element is determined by a contest success function between the attacker and the defender. The defender can choose a subset of the elements to defend. The attacker does not know which elements are protected and can choose a number of randomly chosen elements to attack. Separation efficiency conditions are formulated dependent on the defender’s and attacker’s budgets, separation costs, contest intensity, and system demand. An algorithm for determining the optimal number of protected elements is suggested for the case when both the defender and the attacker can choose the number of protected and attacked elements freely. The article considers both the cases without and with performance redundancy. Illustrative numerical examples are presented.     

Individual <Emphasis Type="Italic">versus</Emphasis> overarching protection against strategic attacks

This article considers a system consisting of elements that can be protected and attacked individually and collectively. To destroy the system, the attacker must always penetrate/destroy the collective (overarching) protection. In the case of the parallel system, it also must destroy all elements, whereas in the case of the series system, it must destroy at least one element. Both the attacker and the defender have limited resources and can distribute these freely between the two types of protection. The attacker chooses the resource distribution and the number of attacked elements to maximize the system destruction probability. The defender chooses the resource distribution and the number of protected elements to minimize the system destruction probability. The bi-contest minmax game is formulated and its analytical solutions are presented and analysed. The asymptotical analysis of the solutions is presented. The influence of the game parameters on the optimal defence and attack strategies is discussed.     

Strategic defense and attack for series and parallel reliability systems

A system of independent components is defended by a strategic defender and attacked by a strategic attacker. The reliability of each component depends on how strongly it is defended and attacked, and on the intensity of the contest. In a series system, the attacker benefits from a substitution effect since attacker benefits flow from attacking any of the components, while the defender needs to defend all components. Even for a series system, when the attacker is sufficiently disadvantaged with high attack inefficiencies, and the intensity of the contest is sufficiently high, the defender earns maximum utility and the attacker earns zero utility. The results for the defender (attacker) in a parallel system are equivalent to the results for the attacker (defender) in a series system. Hence, the defender benefits from the substitution effect in parallel systems. With budget constraints the ratio of the investments for each component, and the contest success function for each component, are the same as without budget constraints when replacing the system values for the defender and attacker with their respective budget constraints.     

Defending against multiple different attackers

One defender defends, and multiple heterogeneous attackers attack, an asset. Three scenarios are considered: the agents move simultaneously; the defender moves first; or the attackers move first. We show how the agents’ unit costs of defense and attack, their asset evaluations, and the number of attackers influence their investments, profits, and withdrawal decisions. Withdrawal does not occur in one-period (simultaneous) games between two agents, at least with the commonly used ratio-form contest success function, but can occur in two-period games between two agents. The presence of one particularly strong attacker can cause other attackers to withdraw from the contest if the advantaged attacker appropriates so much of the defender’s asset that it is no longer sufficiently attractive to interest other attackers. In such cases, the defender focuses exclusively on the strong attacker. An advantaged defender may be able to deter attacks by moving first, but will continue to suffer from attacks if moving second. This suggests the importance of proactive rather than reactive defense.     

A Bilevel p-median model for the planning and protection of critical facilities

The bilevel p-median problem for the planning and protection of critical facilities involves a static Stackelberg game between a system planner (defender) and a potential attacker. The system planner determines firstly where to open p critical service facilities, and secondly which of them to protect with a limited protection budget. Following this twofold action, the attacker decides which facilities to interdict simultaneously, where the maximum number of interdictions is fixed. Partial protection or interdiction of a facility is not possible. Both the defender’s and the attacker’s actions have deterministic outcome; i.e., once protected, a facility becomes completely immune to interdiction, and an attack on an unprotected facility destroys it beyond repair. Moreover, the attacker has perfect information about the location and protection status of facilities; hence he would never attack a protected facility. We formulate a bilevel integer program (BIP) for this problem, in which the defender takes on the leader’s role and the attacker acts as the follower. We propose and compare three different methods to solve the BIP. The first method is an optimal exhaustive search algorithm with exponential time complexity. The second one is a two-phase tabu search heuristic developed to overcome the first method’s impracticality on large-sized problem instances. Finally, the third one is a sequential solution method in which the defender’s location and protection decisions are separated. The efficiency of these three methods is extensively tested on 75 randomly generated instances each with two budget levels. The results show that protection budget plays a significant role in maintaining the service accessibility of critical facilities in the worst-case interdiction scenario.     

The timing and deterrence of terrorist attacks due to exogenous dynamics

In this paper, we develop a model for the timing and deterrence of terrorist attacks due to exogenous dynamics. The defender moves first and the attacker second in a two-stage game which is repeated over T periods. We study the effects of dynamics of several critical components of counter-terrorism games, including the unit defence costs (eg, immediately after an attack, the defender would easily acquire defensive funding), unit attack costs (eg, the attacker may accumulate resources as time goes), and the asset valuation (eg, the asset valuation may change over time). We study deterministic dynamics and conduct simulations using random dynamics. We determine the timing of terrorist attacks and how these can be deterred.     

Individual versus overarching protection and attack of assets

Two agents protect and attack a collection of assets overarchingly versus individually. Examples of overarching protection are border security, counter intelligence, and public health measures. Both layers of protection have to be breached for an attack to be successful. We consider a simultaneous game, and a two period game with overarching contest in period 1 and individual contests in period 2 if the attacker wins period 1. With reasonable assumptions, such as contest intensities not exceeding one, the defender prefers two protection layers, while the attacker prefers one protection layer. When the unit effort costs of overarching protection and attack are equal, and the agents’ valuations for each asset are equal, in the simultaneous game defender and attacker efforts are equal in the overarching contest. In contrast, for the two period game, the defender invests more than the attacker in the overarching contest to prevent the occurrence of period 2. If the attacker nevertheless wins period 1, both agents exert larger efforts in period 2 compared with the individual contests in the simultaneous game. Framed within the Colonel Blotto literature, the attacker must win the first battlefield (overarching contest) in order to engage in the contests over the n other battlefields (individual contests).     

Secure sets and their expansion in cubic graphs

Consider a graph whose vertices play the role of members of the opposing groups. The edge between two vertices means that these vertices may defend or attack each other. At one time, any attacker may attack only one vertex. Similarly, any defender fights for itself or helps exactly one of its neighbours. If we have a set of defenders that can repel any attack, then we say that the set is secure. Moreover, it is strong if it is also prepared for a raid of one additional foe who can strike anywhere. We show that almost any cubic graph of order n has a minimum strong secure set of cardinality less or equal to n/2 + 1. Moreover, we examine the possibility of an expansion of secure sets and strong secure sets.     

基于多目标双层规划的智能电网虚假数据注入攻击研究

相对于传统电网,智能电网引入了先进的信息通信技术能显著提高企业生产效率和电力数据处理效率,但由于传统状态估计的漏洞,智能电网易受到虚假数据注入的攻击。现有的研究仅追求电力系统运营成本的最大化或攻击资源的最小化,没有考虑两者之间的均衡。基于此,本文考虑建立智能电网虚假数据注入攻击双层多目标规划模型,其中多目标表示电力系统运营成本与攻击成本之间的均衡,并结合IEEE 14总线算例进行分析,针对攻击者不同的攻击倾向给出了相应的虚假数据注入攻击策略。     

An attrition game on a network ruled by Lanchester’s square law

We consider two-person zero-sum attrition games in which an attacker and a defender are in combat with each other on a network. The attacker marches from a starting node to a destination node, hoping that the initial members survive the march. The defender deploys his forces on arcs in order to intercept the attacker. If the attacker encounters the defender on an arc, the attacker incurs casualties according to Lanchester’s square law. We consider two models: a one-shot game in which the two players have no information about their opponents, and a two-stage game in which both players have some information about their opponents. For both games, the payoff is defined as the number of survivors for the attacker. The attacker’s strategy is to choose a path, and the defender’s is to deploy the defending forces on arcs. We propose a numerical algorithm, in which nonlinear programming is embedded, to derive the equilibrium of the game.     

Heterogeneous surface-to-air missile defense battery location: a game theoretic approach

In the context of an air defense missile-and-interceptor engagement, a challenge for the defender is that surface-to-air missile batteries often must be located to protect high-value targets dispersed over a vast area, subject to which an attacker may observe the disposition of batteries and subsequently develop and implement an attack plan. To model this scenario, we formulate a two-player, extensive form, three-stage, perfect information, zero-sum game that accounts for, respectively, a defender’s location of batteries, an attacker’s launch of missiles against targets, and a defender’s assignment of interceptor missiles from batteries to incoming attacker missiles. The resulting trilevel math programming formulation cannot be solved via direct optimization, and it is not suitable to solve via full enumeration for realistically-sized instances. We instead adapt the game tree search technique Double Oracle, within which we embed either of two alternative heuristics to solve an important subproblem for the attacker. We test and compare these solution methods to solve a designed set of 52 instances having parametric variations, from which we derive insights regarding the nature of the underlying problem. Enhancing the solution methods with alternative initialization strategies, our superlative methodology attains the optimal solution for over 75% of the instances tested and solutions within 3% of optimal, on average, for the remaining 25% of the instances, and it is promising for realistically-sized instances, scaling well with regard to computational effort.     

A cutting-plane algorithm for solving a weighted influence interdiction problem

We consider a two-stage defender-attacker game that takes place on a network, in which the attacker seeks to take control over (or “influence”) as many nodes as possible. The defender acts first in this game by protecting a subset of nodes that cannot be influenced by the attacker. With full knowledge of the defender’s action, the attacker can then influence an initial subset of unprotected nodes. The influence then spreads over a finite number of time stages, where an uninfluenced node becomes influenced at time t if a threshold number of its neighbors are influenced at time t?1. The attacker’s objective is to maximize the weighted number of nodes that are influenced over the time horizon, where the weights depend both on the node and on the time at which that is influenced. This defender-attacker game is especially difficult to optimize, because the attacker’s problem itself is NP-hard, which precludes a standard inner-dualization approach that is common in many interdiction studies. We provide three models for solving the attacker’s problem, and develop a tailored cutting-plane algorithm for solving the defender’s problem. We then demonstrate the computational efficacy of our proposed algorithms on a set of randomly generated instances.     

An attrition game on an acyclic network

This paper deals with noncooperative games in which two players conflict on a network through an attrition phenomenon. The associated problem has a variety of applications, but we model the problem as a military conflict between an attacker and a defender on an acyclic network. The attacker marches from a starting node to a destination node, expecting to keep his initial members untouched during the march. The defender deploys his forces on arcs to intercept the attacker. If the attacker goes through an arc with deployed defenders, the attacker incurs casualties according to Lanchester’s linear law. In this paper, we discuss two games having the number of remaining attackers as the payoff and propose systems of linear programming formulations to derive their equilibrium points. One game is a two-person zero-sum (TPZS) one-shot game with no information and the other is a TPZS game with two stages separated by information acquisition about players’ opponents.     

Hybrid defensive resource allocations in the face of partially strategic attackers in a sequential defender–attacker game

Many models have been developed to study homeland security games between governments (defender) and terrorists (attacker, adversary, enemy), with the limiting assumption of the terrorists being rational or strategic. In this paper, we develop a novel hybrid model in which a centralized government allocates defensive resources among multiple potential targets to minimize total expected loss, in the face of a terrorist being either strategic or non-strategic. The attack probabilities of a strategic terrorist are endogenously determined in the model, while the attack probabilities of a non-strategic terrorist are exogenously provided. We study the robustness of defensive resource allocations by comparing the government’s total expected losses when: (a) the government knows the probability that the terrorist is strategic; (b) the government falsely believes that the terrorist is fully strategic, when the terrorist could be non-strategic; and (c) the government falsely believes that the terrorist is fully non-strategic, when the terrorist could be strategic. Besides providing six theorems to highlight the general results, we find that game models are generally preferred to non-game model even when the probability of a non-strategic terrorist is significantly greater than 50%. We conclude that defensive resource allocations based on game-theoretic models would not incur too much additional expected loss and thus more preferred, as compared to non-game-theoretic models.     

New solution approaches for the maximum-reliability stochastic network interdiction problem

We investigate methods to solve the maximum-reliability stochastic network interdiction problem (SNIP). In this problem, a defender interdicts arcs on a directed graph to minimize an attacker’s probability of undetected traversal through the network. The attacker’s origin and destination are unknown to the defender and assumed to be random. SNIP can be formulated as a stochastic mixed-integer program via a deterministic equivalent formulation (DEF). As the size of this DEF makes it impractical for solving large instances, current approaches to solving SNIP rely on modifications of Benders decomposition. We present two new approaches to solve SNIP. First, we introduce a new DEF that is significantly more compact than the standard DEF. Second, we propose a new path-based formulation of SNIP. The number of constraints required to define this formulation grows exponentially with the size of the network, but the model can be solved via delayed constraint generation. We present valid inequalities for this path-based formulation which are dependent on the structure of the interdicted arc probabilities. We propose a branch-and-cut (BC) algorithm to solve this new SNIP formulation. Computational results demonstrate that directly solving the more compact SNIP formulation and this BC algorithm both provide an improvement over a state-of-the-art implementation of Benders decomposition for this problem.