A stochastic programming approach for supply chain network design under uncertainty

This paper proposes a stochastic programming model and solution algorithm for solving supply chain network design problems of a realistic scale. Existing approaches for these problems are either restricted to deterministic environments or can only address a modest number of scenarios for the uncertain problem parameters. Our solution methodology integrates a recently proposed sampling strategy, the sample average approximation (SAA) scheme, with an accelerated Benders decomposition algorithm to quickly compute high quality solutions to large-scale stochastic supply chain design problems with a huge (potentially infinite) number of scenarios. A computational study involving two real supply chain networks are presented to highlight the significance of the stochastic model as well as the efficiency of the proposed solution strategy.     

Minimizing the weighted number of early and tardy jobs in a stochastic single machine scheduling problem

We study a static stochastic single machine scheduling problem in which jobs have random processing times with arbitrary distributions, due dates are known with certainty, and fixed individual penalties (or weights) are imposed on both early and tardy jobs. The objective is to find an optimal sequence that minimizes the expected total weighted number of early and tardy jobs. The general problem is NP-hard to solve; however, in this paper, we develop certain conditions under which the problem is solvable exactly. An efficient heuristic is also introduced to find a candidate for the optimal sequence of the general problem. Our illustrative examples and computational results demonstrate that the heuristic performs well in identifying either optimal sequences or good candidates with low errors. Furthermore, we show that special cases of the problem studied here reduce to some classical stochastic single machine scheduling problems including the problem of minimizing the expected weighted number of early jobs and the problem of minimizing the expected weighted number of tardy jobs which are both solvable by the proposed exact or heuristic methods.     

A generalized stochastic goal programming model

In this paper we show how one can get stochastic solutions of Stochastic Multi-objective Problem (SMOP) using goal programming models. In literature it is well known that one can reduce a SMOP to deterministic equivalent problems and reduce the analysis of a stochastic problem to a collection of deterministic problems. The first sections of this paper will be devoted to the introduction of deterministic equivalent problems when the feasible set is a random set and we show how to solve them using goal programming technique. In the second part we try to go more in depth on notion of SMOP solution and we suppose that it has to be a random variable. We will present stochastic goal programming model for finding stochastic solutions of SMOP. Our approach requires more computational time than the one based on deterministic equivalent problems due to the fact that several optimization programs (which depend on the number of experiments to be run) needed to be solved. On the other hand, since in our approach we suppose that a SMOP solution is a random variable, according to the Central Limit Theorem the larger will be the sample size and the more precise will be the estimation of the statistical moments of a SMOP solution. The developed model will be illustrated through numerical examples.     

On complexity of optimal recombination for flowshop scheduling problems

Under study is the complexity of optimal recombination for various flowshop scheduling problems with the makespan criterion and the criterion of maximum lateness. The problems are proved to be NP-hard, and a solution algorithm is proposed. In the case of a flowshop problem on permutations, the algorithm is shown to have polynomial complexity for “almost all” pairs of parent solutions as the number of jobs tends to infinity.     

On distributionally robust multiperiod stochastic optimization

This paper considers model uncertainty for multistage stochastic programs. The data and information structure of the baseline model is a tree, on which the decision problem is defined. We consider “ambiguity neighborhoods” around this tree as alternative models which are close to the baseline model. Closeness is defined in terms of a distance for probability trees, called the nested distance. This distance is appropriate for scenario models of multistage stochastic optimization problems as was demonstrated in Pflug and Pichler (SIAM J Optim 22:1–23, 2012). The ambiguity model is formulated as a minimax problem, where the the optimal decision is to be found, which minimizes the maximal objective function within the ambiguity set. We give a setup for studying saddle point properties of the minimax problem. Moreover, we present solution algorithms for finding the minimax decisions at least asymptotically. As an example, we consider a multiperiod stochastic production/inventory control problem with weekly ordering. The stochastic scenario process is given by the random demands for two products. We determine the minimax solution and identify the worst trees within the ambiguity set. It turns out that the probability weights of the worst case trees are concentrated on few very bad scenarios.     

Multi-stage portfolio selection problem with dynamic stochastic dominance constraints

We study the multi-stage portfolio selection problem where the utility function of an investor is ambiguous. The ambiguity is characterized by dynamic stochastic dominance constraints, which are able to capture the dynamics of the random return sequence during the investment process. We propose a multi-stage dynamic stochastic dominance constrained portfolio selection model, and use a mixed normal distribution with time-varying weights and the K-means clustering technique to generate a scenario tree for the transformation of the proposed model. Based on the scenario tree representation, we derive two linear programming approximation problems, using the sampling approach or the duality theory, which provide an upper bound approximation and a lower bound approximation for the original nonconvex problem. The upper bound is asymptotically tight with infinitely many samples. Numerical results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed new model and solution techniques.

     

Inference of statistical bounds for multistage stochastic programming problems

We discuss in this paper statistical inference of sample average approximations of multistage stochastic programming problems. We show that any random sampling scheme provides a valid statistical lower bound for the optimal (minimum) value of the true problem. However, in order for such lower bound to be consistent one needs to employ the conditional sampling procedure. We also indicate that fixing a feasible first-stage solution and then solving the sampling approximation of the corresponding (T–1)-stage problem, does not give a valid statistical upper bound for the optimal value of the true problem.Supported, in part, by the National Science Foundation under grant DMS-0073770.     

Equivalent models for finite-fuel stochastic control

A stochastic control problem with finite-fuel constraint, of the type studied by Bene?, Shepp and Witsenhausen (1980), is solved explicitly. It is shown to be reducible to “simpler” stochastic optimization problems, such as optimal stopping and singular control for Brownian motion with unlimited fuel.     

Conditioning of linear-quadratic two-stage stochastic optimization problems

In this paper a condition number for linear-quadratic two-stage stochastic optimization problems is introduced as the Lipschitz modulus of the multifunction assigning to a (discrete) probability distribution the solution set of the problem. Being the outer norm of the Mordukhovich coderivative of this multifunction, the condition number can be estimated from above explicitly in terms of the problem data by applying appropriate calculus rules. Here, a chain rule for the extended partial second-order subdifferential recently proved by Mordukhovich and Rockafellar plays a crucial role. The obtained results are illustrated for the example of two-stage stochastic optimization problems with simple recourse.     

Stochastic viscosity solutions for nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations. Part I

This paper, together with the accompanying work (Part II, Stochastic Process. Appl. 93 (2001) 205–228) is an attempt to extend the notion of viscosity solution to nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations. We introduce a definition of stochastic viscosity solution in the spirit of its deterministic counterpart, with special consideration given to the stochastic integrals. We show that a stochastic PDE can be converted to a PDE with random coefficients via a Doss–Sussmann-type transformation, so that a stochastic viscosity solution can be defined in a “point-wise” manner. Using the recently developed theory on backward/backward doubly stochastic differential equations, we prove the existence of the stochastic viscosity solution, and further extend the nonlinear Feynman–Kac formula. Some properties of the stochastic viscosity solution will also be studied in this paper. The uniqueness of the stochastic viscosity solution will be addressed separately in Part II where the relation between the stochastic viscosity solution and the ω-wise, “deterministic” viscosity solution to the PDE with random coefficients will be established.     

Uniform exponential convergence of sample average random functions under general sampling with applications in stochastic programming

Sample average approximation (SAA) is one of the most popular methods for solving stochastic optimization and equilibrium problems. Research on SAA has been mostly focused on the case when sampling is independent and identically distributed (iid) with exceptions (Dai et al. (2000) [9], Homem-de-Mello (2008) [16]). In this paper we study SAA with general sampling (including iid sampling and non-iid sampling) for solving nonsmooth stochastic optimization problems, stochastic Nash equilibrium problems and stochastic generalized equations. To this end, we first derive the uniform exponential convergence of the sample average of a class of lower semicontinuous random functions and then apply it to a nonsmooth stochastic minimization problem. Exponential convergence of estimators of both optimal solutions and M-stationary points (characterized by Mordukhovich limiting subgradients (Mordukhovich (2006) [23], Rockafellar and Wets (1998) [32])) are established under mild conditions. We also use the unform convergence result to establish the exponential rate of convergence of statistical estimators of a stochastic Nash equilibrium problem and estimators of the solutions to a stochastic generalized equation problem.     

Hierarchical controls in stochastic manufacturing systems with machines in tandem

This paper presents an asymptotic analysis of hierarchical production planning in a manufacturing system with serial machines that are subject to breakdown and repair, and with convex costs. The machines capacities are modeled as Markov chains. Since the number of parts in the internal buffers between any two machines needs to be non-negative, the problem is inherently a state constrained problem. As the rate of change in machines states approaches infinity, the analysis results in a limiting problem in which the stochastic machines capacity is replaced by the equilibrium mean capacity. A method of “lifting” and “modification” is introduced in order to construct near optimal controls for the original problem by using near optimal controls of the limiting problem. The value function of the original problem is shown to converge to the value function of the limiting problem, and the convergence rate is obtained based on some a priori estimates of the asymptotic behavior of the Markov chains. As a result, an error estimate can be obtained on the near optimality of the controls constructed for the original problem.     

Decomposition strategy for the stochastic pooling problem

The stochastic pooling problem is a type of stochastic mixed-integer bilinear program arising in the integrated design and operation of various important industrial networks, such as gasoline blending, natural gas production and transportation, water treatment, etc. This paper presents a rigorous decomposition method for the stochastic pooling problem, which guarantees finding an ${\epsilon}$ -optimal solution with a finite number of iterations. By convexification of the bilinear terms, the stochastic pooling problem is relaxed into a lower bounding problem that is a potentially large-scale mixed-integer linear program (MILP). Solution of this lower bounding problem is then decomposed into a sequence of relaxed master problems, which are MILPs with much smaller sizes, and primal bounding problems, which are linear programs. The solutions of the relaxed master problems yield a sequence of nondecreasing lower bounds on the optimal objective value, and they also generate a sequence of integer realizations defining the primal problems which yield a sequence of nonincreasing upper bounds on the optimal objective value. The decomposition algorithm terminates finitely when the lower and upper bounds coincide (or are close enough), or infeasibility of the problem is indicated. Case studies involving two example problems and two industrial problems demonstrate the dramatic computational advantage of the proposed decomposition method over both a state-of-the-art branch-and-reduce global optimization method and explicit enumeration of integer realizations, particularly for large-scale problems.     

Online stochastic optimization under time constraints

This paper considers online stochastic combinatorial optimization problems where uncertainties, i.e., which requests come and when, are characterized by distributions that can be sampled and where time constraints severely limit the number of offline optimizations which can be performed at decision time and/or in between decisions. It proposes online stochastic algorithms that combine the frameworks of online and stochastic optimization. Online stochastic algorithms differ from traditional a priori methods such as stochastic programming and Markov Decision Processes by focusing on the instance data that is revealed over time. The paper proposes three main algorithms: expectation E, consensus C, and regret R. They all make online decisions by approximating, for each decision, the solution to a multi-stage stochastic program using an exterior sampling method and a polynomial number of samples. The algorithms were evaluated experimentally and theoretically. The experimental results were obtained on three applications of different nature: packet scheduling, multiple vehicle routing with time windows, and multiple vehicle dispatching. The theoretical results show that, under assumptions which seem to hold on these, and other, applications, algorithm E has an expected constant loss compared to the offline optimal solution. Algorithm R reduces the number of optimizations by a factor |R|, where R is the number of requests, and has an expected ρ(1+o(1)) loss when the regret gives a ρ-approximation to the offline problem.     

Particle methods for stochastic optimal control problems

When dealing with numerical solution of stochastic optimal control problems, stochastic dynamic programming is the natural framework. In order to try to overcome the so-called curse of dimensionality, the stochastic programming school promoted another approach based on scenario trees which can be seen as the combination of Monte Carlo sampling ideas on the one hand, and of a heuristic technique to handle causality (or nonanticipativeness) constraints on the other hand. However, if one considers that the solution of a stochastic optimal control problem is a feedback law which relates control to state variables, the numerical resolution of the optimization problem over a scenario tree should be completed by a feedback synthesis stage in which, at each time step of the scenario tree, control values at nodes are plotted against corresponding state values to provide a first discrete shape of this feedback law from which a continuous function can be finally inferred. From this point of view, the scenario tree approach faces an important difficulty: at the first time stages (close to the tree root), there are a few nodes (or Monte-Carlo particles), and therefore a relatively scarce amount of information to guess a feedback law, but this information is generally of a good quality (that is, viewed as a set of control value estimates for some particular state values, it has a small variance because the future of those nodes is rich enough); on the contrary, at the final time stages (near the tree leaves), the number of nodes increases but the variance gets large because the future of each node gets poor (and sometimes even deterministic). After this dilemma has been confirmed by numerical experiments, we have tried to derive new variational approaches. First of all, two different formulations of the essential constraint of nonanticipativeness are considered: one is called algebraic and the other one is called functional. Next, in both settings, we obtain optimality conditions for the corresponding optimal control problem. For the numerical resolution of those optimality conditions, an adaptive mesh discretization method is used in the state space in order to provide information for feedback synthesis. This mesh is naturally derived from a bunch of sample noise trajectories which need not to be put into the form of a tree prior to numerical resolution. In particular, an important consequence of this discrepancy with the scenario tree approach is that the same number of nodes (or points) are available from the beginning to the end of the time horizon. And this will be obtained without sacrifying the quality of the results (that is, the variance of the estimates). Results of experiments with a hydro-electric dam production management problem will be presented and will demonstrate the claimed improvements. A more realistic problem will also be presented in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method for high dimensional problems.     

A remark on multiobjective stochastic optimization via strongly convex functions

Many economic and financial applications lead (from the mathematical point of view) to deterministic optimization problems depending on a probability measure. These problems can be static (one stage), dynamic with finite (multistage) or infinite horizon, single objective or multiobjective. We focus on one-stage case in multiobjective setting. Evidently, well known results from the deterministic optimization theory can be employed in the case when the “underlying” probability measure is completely known. The assumption of a complete knowledge of the probability measure is fulfilled very seldom. Consequently, we have mostly to analyze the mathematical models on the data base to obtain a stochastic estimate of the corresponding “theoretical” characteristics. However, the investigation of these estimates has been done mostly in one-objective case. In this paper we focus on the investigation of the relationship between “characteristics” obtained on the base of complete knowledge of the probability measure and estimates obtained on the (above mentioned) data base, mostly in the multiobjective case. Consequently we obtain also the relationship between analysis (based on the data) of the economic process characteristics and “real” economic process. To this end the results of the deterministic multiobjective optimization theory and the results obtained for stochastic one objective problems will be employed.     

A Practical Approach for Robust and Flexible Vehicle Routing Using Metaheuristics and Monte Carlo Sampling

In this paper, we investigate how robust and flexible solutions of a number of stochastic variants of the capacitated vehicle routing problem can be obtained. To this end, we develop and discuss a method that combines a sampling based approach to estimate the robustness or flexibility of a solution with a metaheuristic optimization technique. This combination allows us to solve larger problems with more complex stochastic structures than traditional methods based on stochastic programming. It is also more flexible in the sense that adaptation of the approach to more complex problems can be easily done. We explicitly recognize the fact that the decision maker’s risk preference should be taken into account when choosing a robust or flexible solution and show how this can be done using our approach.     

Analysis of non-linear stochastic oscillations by the averaging method

The solution of a quasiconservative non-linear oscillatory system is considered, the right-hand sides of which are proportional to a small parameter. Fundamental relations for solving the problem are obtained by changing to “slow” variables and a combination of the stochastic averaging method and the theory of Markov processes. An efficient numerical algorithm is developed based on the fast Fourier transform that enables the output parameter distribution density and the amplitudes of the oscillations to be obtained. Application of the theory to solve the Duffing–van der Pol equation for an additive and multiplicative stochastic action is considered.     

Cross decomposition applied to the stochastic transportation problem

In this paper we give a solution method for the stochastic transportation problem based on Cross Decomposition developed by Van Roy (1980). Solution methods to the derived sub and master problems are discussed and computational results are given for a number of large scale test problems. We also compare the efficiency of the method with other methods suggested for the stochastic transportation problem: The Frank-Wolfe algorithm and separable programming.     

Control of linear stochastic time delayed systems

The linear-quadratic control problem of stochastic time-delayed systems has been solved using function space method. The solution demonstrates directly that the “separation theorem” holds for such systems.