不确定条件下可可耗竭资源与可再生资源的博弈分析

能源是经济可持续发展的重要的物质基础.在能源开发时间路径上,不可再生资源面临资源储量的约束,可再生资源面临技术水平的约束.R&D投资可以促进技术进步.但是不论是可耗竭资源的储量还是技术进步水平都具有很大的不确定性.就此情形构建了基于两类能源的生产者利润最大化为目标的随机动态微分博弈,研究不确定性对能源市场均衡的影响.     

可耗竭性资源从价税与累积开采量的关系研究——基于Hotelling模型的改进

提高可耗竭性资源累积开采量对解决我国资源短缺和资源开采效率低下并存的问题具有重要的意义。在增加了开采成本随累积开采量递增的假设下,本文首先对Hotelling模型做了改进。其次,运用最优控制方法,以完全竞争市场为比较基准,本文研究了垄断市场下从价税与累积开采量之间的关系。研究发现:第一,当从价税税率为零时,垄断市场下的累积开采量低于完全竞争市场下的累积开采量。第二,当从价税税率大于零时,征收从价税进一步降低了垄断市场下的累积开采量。第三,当从价税税率小于零时,征收从价税有利于提高垄断市场下的累积开采量。     

Potential inventory cost reductions using advanced time series forecasting techniques

This paper compares demand forecasts computed using the time series forecasting techniques of vector autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) with forecasts computed using exponential smoothing and seasonal decomposition. These forecasts for three demand data series were used to determine three inventory management policies for each time series. The inventory costs associated with each of these policies were used as a further basis for comparison of the forecasting techniques. The results show that the BVAR technique, which uses mixed estimation, is particularly useful in reducing inventory costs in cases where the limited historical data offer little useful information for forecasting. The BVAR technique was effective in improving forecast accuracy and reducing inventory costs in two of the three cases tested. In the third case, unrestricted VAR and exponential smoothing produced the lowest experimental forecast errors and computed inventory costs. Furthermore, this research illustrates that improvements in demand forecasting can provide better cost reductions than relying on stochastic inventory models to provide cost reductions.     

PRODUCTION COST UNCERTAINTY AND INDUSTRY EQUILIBRIUM FOR NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCE EXTRACTION

In this paper we examine production cost uncertainty in a non-renewable resource industry model. A rational expectations, m-firms industry equilibrium is characterized, and the effects of production cost uncertainty on industry rent and firms' profits are examined.     

ON THE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IN AN ECONOMY WITH PERFECTLY SUBSTITUTABLE EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCES

Abstract A model of sustainable economic growth in an economy with two types of exhaustible resources is analyzed. The resources are assumed to be perfect substitutes with marginal rate of substitution varying over time. The optimal control framework is used to characterize the optimal paths under the maximin criterion. It is shown that the resource with increasing productivity is not used before the constant productivity resource is depleted. Afterwards the resource with an increasing productivity is asymptotically depleted as well. The results are based on an assumption that transversality conditions hold. A new sufficient condition for the transversality conditions is derived. Finally, an analogue of Hartwick’s rule for this non‐autonomous case is established.     

Optimal service contract under cost information symmetry/asymmetry

Service outsourcing has become a hot topic in both industry and academy. This paper studies the contract design problems for a service seller who consigns the service to a vendor. The vendor’s service cost parameter may or may not completely be known by the seller, which constitutes the cases of information symmetry or asymmetry. In both cases, the optimal contracts are developed to maximize the seller’s expected profit, with the consideration of contractible and non-contractible service qualities. The properties of the contract parameters are explored, along with the analysis of information rent and value of cost information. Moreover, we find that non-contractible service quality is not an issue for the service seller under cost information symmetry since a revenue-sharing type of contract can guarantee the seller’s profit. However, this result does not hold under cost information asymmetry and thus non-contractibility of the service quality indeed costs the seller.     

Habit formation and resource dependence in dynastic economies

This paper studies the consequences of habit formation in dynastic economies that exploit exhaustible resources. If the strength of habits is below a critical level, positive bequests generate Ramsey-Stiglitz equilibria: the altruism factor determines long-run growth and habits increase output levels by increasing capital accumulation and smoothing resource extraction during the transition. If the strength of habits is above the threshold, zero bequests induce Diamond-Mourmouras equilibria: the transitional effects become permanent and habits increase long-run growth. Results differ from those of capital-labor models because resource dependence implies that long-run growth is determined by the intergenerational distribution of wealth.     

Mathematical modeling of the dissolving and deposition processes during solution seepage in a porous medium

A mathematical model that describes solution seepage in a porous medium and the processes of mineral dissolving and secondary deposition is proposed. Self-similar solutions describing the motion of the leading and trailing fronts, that is, the boundaries of the complete-dissolving zone, are determined. The main features of the processes under consideration are studied and numerical calculations are performed. It is shown that the model describes well the experimental data on mineral leaching by sulfate solutions. The dynamics of mineral extraction from productive solutions in a medium with a nonuniformacidity distribution are investigated. It is shown that, in the elevated-PH zones, the mineral is dissolved; whereas, in the low-acidity zones, secondary deposition of the mineral occurs. In the latter case, after the work has been completed, the bed may contain more or less considerable mineral resources, depending on the extent of the low-PH zone and its proximity to an extraction well.     

A model of rational equilibrium in quota-regulated multiple-species fisheries

This paper derives rational ecological–economic equilibrium outcomes—capital and variable input allocations, harvests, discards, revenue, costs, and stock abundances—in a spatially heterogeneous, multispecies fishery that is regulated with individual fishing quotas (IFQs). The production setting is decentralized; a manager chooses species-specific, seasonal, and spatially nondelineated quotas. Industry controls all aspects of harvesting operations. We present a solution concept and computational algorithm to solve for equilibrium harvests, discards, and profits across species, space, and time (within the regulatory cycle). The rational equilibrium mapping that we derive, used recursively, can be used to implement management-preferred bioeconomic outcomes. The model offers an essential IFQ regulation-to-outcome mapping that enables more precise implementation of management goals in multiple-species and heterogeneous fishery settings. Recommendations for Resource Managers Knowing where and when individual tradeable fishing quotas will be utilized across heterogeneous space and time in multiple-species fisheries is essential for effective fisheries management. Ad hoc models, while simple, contribute to “implementation uncertainty” whereby predicted mortality, discards, cost, and rent outcomes across fish species, space, and time are poorly matched to the realized outcomes that are implemented by resource users. A model of rational equilibrium mortality, discards, costs, and rent across space and time offers and powerful tool to improve the management of quota-regulated fisheries.     

Top Management Systems for Forecasting and Monitoring Pay Costs and Staff Numbers

The size of the Department of Trade and Industry has mainly been controlled by a ceiling on the number of staff. Recently, the Government also introduced limits on running cost budgets, the largest component of which is pay cost. In 1986 these were delegated to 12 Deputy Secretaries. The budgets have to be set very tightly in order to remain within the Departmental limit on running costs; so it is essential that top management are able to forecast pay costs. Two models are described. One provides short term forecasts of staff numbers, the other forecasts their cost. The model forecasting staff numbers can be used to ensure that the ceiling on staff numbers is not exceeded. Its main use is as an input to the second model which forecasts pay costs. The models are now in use by top management; firstly, to allocate budgets throughout the Department, and secondly, to monitor the spend through the year.     

A dynamic logistics model for medical resources allocation in an epidemic control with demand forecast updating

This paper presents a dynamic logistics model for medical resources allocation that can be used to control an epidemic diffusion. It couples a forecasting mechanism, constructed for the demand of a medicine in the course of such epidemic diffusion, and a logistics planning system to satisfy the forecasted demand and minimize the total cost. The forecasting mechanism is a time discretized version of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model that is widely employed in predicting the trajectory of an epidemic diffusion. The logistics planning system is formulated as a mixed 0–1 integer programming problem characterizing the decision making at various levels of hospitals, distribution centers, pharmaceutical plants, and the transportation in between them. The model is built as a closed-loop cycle, comprising forecast phase, planning phase, execution phase, and adjustment phase. The parameters of the forecast mechanism are adjusted in reflection of the real data collected in the execution phase by solving a quadratic programming problem. A numerical example is presented to verify efficiency of the model.     

Cash management cost reduction using data mining to forecast cash demand and LP to optimize resources

This paper presents a two step model aimed at reducing cash management costs in a bank’s branch. First, data mining was used to forecast daily cash demand, comparing an ARMA-ARCH model with a neural network. Secondly, using the prior result, a linear programming model was solved. The optimal allocation of resources, i.e., cash collections and supplies was estimated showing that the model can be a helpful tool to support the determination of collections and supplies at the bank branch.     

On explicit solutions of a two-echelon supply chain coordination game

A contracting game under asymmetric information specific to two-echelon supply chain coordination between a retailer of unknown type and a supplier is studied. When the parameter which is private information to the retailer (holding cost) is known up to an interval of uncertainty, a uniform discrete approximation for retailer types leads to closed-form solutions where the joint (coordinated) optimal order quantity for a modified holding cost plays a major role. Furthermore, the closed-form solutions result in increasing information rent for higher types under easy-to-verify conditions involving strict lower limits on the total holding costs of retailer and supplier and the difference between uncoordinated optimal costs of consecutive retailer types.     

Cooperative games and cost allocation problems

The objective of this paper is to provide a general view of the literature of applications of transferable utility cooperative games to cost allocation problems. This literature is so large that we concentrate on some relevant contributions in three specific areas: transportation, natural resources and power industry. We stress those applications dealing with costs and with problems arisen outside the academic world.     

OPTIMAL R&D FOR NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES: THE CASE OF COST REDUCING TECHNOLOGY

A model is developed to determine optimal R&D spending and completion time when R&D results in lower extraction costs of a nonrenewable resource deposit. Examples of R&D projects for which the model is designed are in-situ leaching for mining and carbon dioxide injection in petroleum. The model is a combined R&D/nonrenewable resource model (CM). Results from the CM are compared to simulations of an R&D model which ignores the nonrenewable resource. The comparison demonstrates the importance of including resource parameters in the R&D spending model. The CM extends the literature by considering R&D spending and exhaustible natural resource production simultaneously. It demonstrates the importance of including the resource deposit when R&D affects the deposit. This is important because more accurate models of R&D will increase the profitability of the R&D projects.     

Resource downgrading

This paper aims to develop models to optimally manage costs associated with resources that can be downgraded. These resources are reused a number of times before becoming unsuitable for their original purpose, and then they are assigned for some other purpose. The typical decisions are the quantity of resources to purchase, to downgrade and to hold in the inventory. A network-based model is developed to formulate the problem and to investigate several special cases. As the model becomes an integer program due to some side constraints, several heuristics are developed here to overcome the challenges associated with solving the resulting integer program. A semiconductor industry application for test wafer management is presented using real-life data.     

Individual transferable vessel quotas and efficient restructuring of the primary harvesting sector

Over the last three decades most of the world's fisheries have been subject to management programs that have tried to limit the use of key fishing inputs. Inevitably, these restrictions have proven ineffective at preventing rent dissipation and stock depletion. More noteworthy is that fishers have subverted the intentions of these restrictions by adjusting the primary harvesting technology. This has led to an inefficient industrial structure characterized by capital stuffing on the part of each vessel, excess employment, an inefficient mix of vessels in the fleet, and too many vessels altogether.A promising means of encouraging more efficient primary harvesting is the individual transferable vessel quota that allocates a given catch to each vessel, thereby giving an incentive to catch the quota at least cost. This paper examines efficiency gains and potential industry restructuring from the introduction of an ITVQ into a fishery that was previously subject to input restrictions.Using data from the British Columbia salmon fishery, this paper estimates restricted cost functions for each of four different vessel types and simulates the operations of a market for ITVQs. The demand for quota comes from individual vessels and is found by differentiating the cost function with respect to the shadow price of quota. The market for quota is in equilibrium when the total demand for quota is equal to the fixed supply of quota set by the government. This implicitly defines the equilibrium quota rental price. Results show that the ITVQ could generate unit rental prices for quota between 31 and 93 cents per pound (18–53% of the average landed price).Using this simulated price, each vessel's costminimizing strategy is defined and both low cost vessels (those that will buy quota) and high cost vessels (those that will sell quota and exit the fishery) are identified. Quota trades between the two groups result in efficiency gains. These include reduced capital stuffing, exit of less efficient vessel types, attainment of economies of scale, and an efficient composition of vessel types in the fleet. In aggregate these gains lead to an estimate of annual resource rent that is approximately equal to one third of the value of the catch.     

A new harvest operation cost model to evaluate forest harvest layout alternatives

In this paper we develop a new model for harvest operation costs that can be used to evaluate stands for potential harvest. The model is based on felling, extraction, and access costs and is unique in its consideration of the interaction between harvest area shapes and access roads. We illustrate the model and evaluate the impact of stand size, volume, and road cost when determining harvest layouts. We also present a generalized case where multiple unit road costs are considered in the same stand.     

Fixed cost and resource allocation based on DEA cross-efficiency

In many managerial applications, situations frequently occur when a fixed cost is used in constructing the common platform of an organization, and needs to be shared by all related entities, or decision making units (DMUs). It is of vital importance to allocate such a cost across DMUs where there is competition for resources. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been successfully used in cost and resource allocation problems. Whether it is a cost or resource allocation issue, one needs to consider both the competitive and cooperative situation existing among DMUs in addition to maintaining or improving efficiency. The current paper uses the cross-efficiency concept in DEA to approach cost and resource allocation problems. Because DEA cross-efficiency uses the concept of peer appraisal, it is a very reasonable and appropriate mechanism for allocating a shared resource/cost. It is shown that our proposed iterative approach is always feasible, and ensures that all DMUs become efficient after the fixed cost is allocated as an additional input measure. The cross-efficiency DEA-based iterative method is further extended into a resource-allocation setting to achieve maximization in the aggregated output change by distributing available resources. Such allocations for fixed costs and resources are more acceptable to the players involved, because the allocation results are jointly determined by all DMUs rather than a specific one. The proposed approaches are demonstrated using an existing data set that has been applied in similar studies.