Multicriteria fuzzy decision-making method using entropy weights-based correlation coefficients of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets

A multicriteria fuzzy decision-making method based on weighted correlation coefficients using entropy weights is proposed under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment for the some situations where the information about criteria weights for alternatives is completely unknown. To determine the entropy weights with respect to a decision matrix provided as interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs), we propose two entropy measures for IVIFSs and establish an entropy weight model, which can be used to determine the criteria weights on alternatives, and then propose an evaluation formula of weighted correlation coefficient between an alternative and the ideal alternative. The alternatives can be ranked and the most desirable one(s) can be selected according to the values of the weighted correlation coefficients. Finally, two applied examples demonstrate the applicability and benefit of the proposed method: it is capable for handling the multicriteria fuzzy decision-making problems with completely unknown weights for criteria.     

Integral analysis method – IAM

This paper presents the theoretical foundations of the new integral analysis method (IAM), and its application to a facility location problem. This methodology integrates the cardinal and ordinal criteria of combinatorial stochastic optimization problems in four stages: definition of the problem, cardinal analysis, ordinal analysis and integration analysis. The method uses the concepts of stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA), Monte Carlo simulation, optimization techniques and elements of probability. The proposed method (IAM) was used to determine optimal locations for the retail stores of a Colombian coffee marketing company.     

Pseudo-criteria versus linear utility function in stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis

Stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a multi-criteria decision support method for multiple decision-makers (DMs) in discrete problems. SMAA does not require explicit or implicit preference information from the DMs. Instead, the method is based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the valuations that would make each alternative the preferred one. Partial preference information can be represented in the weight space analysis through weight distributions. In this paper we compare two variants of the SMAA method using randomly generated test problems with 2–12 criteria and 4–12 alternatives. In the original SMAA, a utility or value function models the DMs' preference structure, and the inaccuracy or uncertainty of the criteria is represented by probability distributions. In SMAA-3, ELECTRE III-type pseudo-criteria are used instead. Both methods compute for each alternative an acceptability index measuring the variety of different valuations that supports this alternative, and a central weight vector representing the typical valuations resulting in this decision. We seek answers to three questions: (1) how similar are the results provided by the decision models, (2) what kind of systematic differences exists between the models, and (3) how could one select indifference and preference thresholds of the pseudo-criteria model to match a utility model with given probability distributions?     

An interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic program for water resources management under uncertainty

This study presents an interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IFTSP) method for the planning of water-resources-management systems under uncertainty. The model is derived by incorporating the concepts of interval-parameter and fuzzy programming techniques within a two-stage stochastic optimization framework. The approach has two major advantages in comparison to other optimization techniques. Firstly, the IFTSP method can incorporate pre-defined water policies directly into its optimization process and, secondly, it can readily integrate inherent system uncertainties expressed not only as possibility and probability distributions but also as discrete intervals directly into its solution procedure. The IFTSP process is applied to an earlier case study of regional water resources management and it is demonstrated how the method efficiently produces stable solutions together with different risk levels of violating pre-established allocation criteria. In addition, a variety of decision alternatives are generated under different combinations of water shortage.     

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis using the data envelopment model

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-2) are methods for evaluating alternatives based on multiple criteria. While DEA is mainly an ex-post tool used for classifying alternatives into efficient and inefficient ones, SMAA-2 is an ex-ante tool for supporting multiple criteria decision-making. Both methods use a kind of value function where the importance of criteria is modeled using weights. Unlike many other methods, neither DEA nor SMAA-2 requires decision-makers’ weights as input. Instead, these so-called non-parametric methods explore the weight space in order to identify weights favorable for each alternative. This paper introduces the SMAA-D method, which is a combination of DEA and SMAA-2. SMAA-D can be characterized as an extension of DEA to handle uncertain or imprecise data to provide stochastic efficiency measures. Alternatively, the combined method can be seen as a variant of SMAA-2 with a DEA-type value function.     

A hybrid model for selection of an outsourcing provider

Outsourcing is a good strategy for firms that need to reduce operating costs and improve competitiveness and it is important that firms scientifically select appropriate outsourcing providers. Some efforts have been made to find systematic ways to deal with outsourcing problems, but these efforts incorrectly assumed that the criteria used in the decision process are independent, which is not true in the real world. In this study, we propose a new hybrid multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, which addresses the dependent relationships between the various criteria. The relations-structure among the criteria is built with the aid of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Decision-makers tend to hold diverse opinions about their preferences due to incomplete information and knowledge, or inherent conflict between various departments. We further used the fuzzy preference programming and the analytic network process (ANP) to form a model for the selection of partners for outsourcing providers. The proposed model can help practitioners improve their decision making process, especially when criteria are numerous and inter-related. The method is demonstrated using data from a Taiwanese airline.     

Unifying temporal and organizational scales in multiscale decision-making

In enterprise systems, making decisions is a complex task for agents at all levels of the organizational hierarchy. To calculate an optimal course of action, an agent has to include uncertainties and the anticipated decisions of other agents, recognizing that they also engage in a stochastic, game-theoretic reasoning process. Furthermore, higher-level agents seek to align the interests of their subordinates by providing incentives. Incentive-giving and receiving agents need to include the effect of the incentive on their payoffs in the optimal strategy calculations. In this paper, we present a multiscale decision-making model that accounts for uncertainties and organizational interdependencies over time. Multiscale decision-making combines stochastic games with hierarchical Markov decision processes to model and solve multi-organizational-scale and multi-time-scale problems. This is the first model that unifies the organizational and temporal scales and can solve a 3-agent, 3-period problem. Solutions can be derived as analytic equations with low computational effort. We apply the model to a service enterprise challenge that illustrates the applicability and relevance of the model. This paper makes an important contribution to the foundation of multiscale decision theory and represents a key step towards solving the general X-agent, T-period problem.     

基于直觉模糊集的多准则模糊决策问题

提出了一种基于直觉模糊集处理模糊决策问题的新方法.该方法用直觉模糊集描述方案关于准则集的满足程度与不满足程度.而且该方法允许决策者给出准则对于模糊集“重要”的隶属度与非隶属度,即准则的权重也由直觉模糊集表示.这种方法为决策者做出最优决策提供了一种方便有效的方法.     

Group decision-making based on concepts of ideal and anti-ideal points in a fuzzy environment

Decision-making problems (location selection) often involve a complex decision-making process in which multiple requirements and uncertain conditions have to be taken into consideration simultaneously. In evaluating the suitability of alternatives, quantitative/qualitative assessments are often required to deal with uncertainty, subjectiveness and imprecise data, which are best represented with fuzzy data. This paper presents a new method of analysis of multicriteria based on the incorporated efficient fuzzy model and concepts of positive ideal and negative ideal points to solve decision-making problems with multi-judges and multicriteria in real-life situations. As a result, effective decisions can be made on the basis of consistent evaluation results. Finally, this paper uses a numerical example of location selection to demonstrate the applicability of this method, with its simplicity in both concept and computation. The results show that this method can be implemented as an effective decision aid in selecting location or decision-making problems.     

Stability analysis of tree structured decision functions

In multicriteria decision problems many values must be assigned, such as the importance of the different criteria and the values of the alternatives with respect to subjective criteria. Since these assignments are approximate, it is very important to analyze the sensitivity of results when small modifications of the assignments are made. When solving a multicriteria decision problem, it is desirable to choose a decision function that leads to a solution as stable as possible. We propose here a method based on genetic programming that produces better decision functions than the commonly used ones. The theoretical expectations are validated by case studies.     

Multicriteria identification sets method

A multicriteria identification and prediction method for mathematical models of simulation type in the case of several identification criteria (error functions) is proposed. The necessity of the multicriteria formulation arises, for example, when one needs to take into account errors of completely different origins (not reducible to a single characteristic) or when there is no information on the class of noise in the data to be analyzed. An identification sets method is described based on the approximation and visualization of the multidimensional graph of the identification error function and sets of suboptimal parameters. This method allows for additional advantages of the multicriteria approach, namely, the construction and visual analysis of the frontier and the effective identification set (frontier and the Pareto set for identification criteria), various representations of the sets of Pareto effective and subeffective parameter combinations, and the corresponding predictive trajectory tubes. The approximation is based on the deep holes method, which yields metric ε-coverings with nearly optimal properties, and on multiphase approximation methods for the Edgeworth–Pareto hull. The visualization relies on the approach of interactive decision maps. With the use of the multicriteria method, multiple-choice solutions of identification and prediction problems can be produced and justified by analyzing the stability of the optimal solution not only with respect to the parameters (robustness with respect to data) but also with respect to the chosen set of identification criteria (robustness with respect to the given collection of functionals).     

Newsvendor-type models with decision-dependent uncertainty

Models for decision-making under uncertainty use probability distributions to represent variables whose values are unknown when the decisions are to be made. Often the distributions are estimated with observed data. Sometimes these variables depend on the decisions but the dependence is ignored in the decision maker??s model, that is, the decision maker models these variables as having an exogenous probability distribution independent of the decisions, whereas the probability distribution of the variables actually depend on the decisions. It has been shown in the context of revenue management problems that such modeling error can lead to systematic deterioration of decisions as the decision maker attempts to refine the estimates with observed data. Many questions remain to be addressed. Motivated by the revenue management, newsvendor, and a number of other problems, we consider a setting in which the optimal decision for the decision maker??s model is given by a particular quantile of the estimated distribution, and the empirical distribution is used as estimator. We give conditions under which the estimation and control process converges, and show that although in the limit the decision maker??s model appears to be consistent with the observed data, the modeling error can cause the limit decisions to be arbitrarily bad.     

The analytic hierarchy process with stochastic judgements

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a widely-used method for multicriteria decision support based on the hierarchical decomposition of objectives, evaluation of preferences through pairwise comparisons, and a subsequent aggregation into global evaluations. The current paper integrates the AHP with stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA), an inverse-preference method, to allow the pairwise comparisons to be uncertain. A simulation experiment is used to assess how the consistency of judgements and the ability of the SMAA-AHP model to discern the best alternative deteriorates as uncertainty increases. Across a range of simulated problems results indicate that, according to conventional benchmarks, judgements are likely to remain consistent unless uncertainty is severe, but that the presence of uncertainty in almost any degree is sufficient to make the choice of best alternative unclear.     

Interactive procedure for a multiobjective stochastic discrete dynamic problem

Multiple objectives and dynamics characterize many sequential decision problems. In the paper we consider returns in partially ordered criteria space as a way of generalization of single criterion dynamic programming models to multiobjective case. In our problem evaluations of alternatives with respect to criteria are represented by distribution functions. Thus, the overall comparison of two alternatives is equivalent to the comparison of two vectors of probability distributions. We assume that the decision maker tries to find a solution preferred to all other solutions (the most preferred solution). In the paper a new interactive procedure for stochastic, dynamic multiple criteria decision making problem is proposed. The procedure consists of two steps. First, the Bellman principle is used to identify the set of efficient solutions. Next interactive approach is employed to find the most preferred solution. A numerical example and a real-world application are presented to illustrate the applicability of the proposed technique.     

A stochastic method for robustness analysis in sorting problems

ELECTRE TRI is a multiple criteria decision aiding sorting method with a history of successful real-life applications. In ELECTRE TRI, values for certain parameters have to be provided. We propose a new method, SMAA-TRI, that is based on stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA), for analyzing the stability of such parameters. The stability analysis can be used for deriving robust conclusions. SMAA-TRI allows ELECTRE TRI to be used with uncertain, arbitrarily distributed values for weights, the lambda cutting level, and profiles. The method consists of analyzing finite spaces of arbitrarily distributed parameter values. Monte Carlo simulation is applied in this in order to describe for each alternative the share of parameter values that have it assigned to different categories. We show the real-life applicability by re-analyzing a case study in the field of risk assessment.     

Dynamic asset allocation for varied financial markets under regime switching framework

Asset allocation among diverse financial markets is essential for investors especially under situations such as the financial crisis of 2008. Portfolio optimization is the most developed method to examine the optimal decision for asset allocation. We employ the hidden Markov model to identify regimes in varied financial markets; a regime switching model gives multiple distributions and this information can convert the static mean–variance model into an optimization problem under uncertainty, which is the case for unobservable market regimes. We construct a stochastic program to optimize portfolios under the regime switching framework and use scenario generation to mathematically formulate the optimization problem. In addition, we build a simple example for a pension fund and examine the behavior of the optimal solution over time by using a rolling-horizon simulation. We conclude that the regime information helps portfolios avoid risk during left-tail events.     

PROMETHEE-MD-2T method for project selection

Project selection is a real problem of multicriteria group decision making (MCGDM) where each decision maker expresses his/her preferences depending on the nature of the alternatives and on his/her own knowledge over them. Thus, information, as much quantitative as qualitative, coexists. The traditional methods of MCGDM developed for project selection usually discriminates in favour of quantitative information at the expense of qualitative information, and this is due to the capability to integrate this first type of information inside their procedure. In this article, two new multicriteria 2-tuple group decision methods called “Preference Ranking Organisation Method for Enrichment Evaluation Multi Decision maker 2-Tuple-I and II” (PROMETHEE-MD-2T-I and II) are presented. They are able to integrate inside their procedure both quantitative and qualitative information in an uncertain context. This has been performed by integrating a 2-tuple linguistic representation model dealing with non-homogeneous and imprecise information data made up by valued intervals, numerical and linguistic values into the aggregation operators of Promethee methods. Although they have been developed for project selection problems, these proposed methods can be applied to all kinds of decision-making problems with heterogeneous and multigranular information.     

An integrated FCM and fuzzy soft set for supplier selection problem based on risk evaluation

Supplier selection problem, considered as a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem, is one of the most important issues for firms. Lots of literatures about it have been emitted since 1960s. However, research on supplier selection under operational risks is limited. What’s more, the criteria used by most of them are independent, which usually does not correspond with the real world. Although the analytic network process (ANP) has been proposed to deal with the problems above, several problems make the method impractical. This study first integrates the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and fuzzy soft set model for solving the supplier selection problem. This method not only considers the dependent and feedback effect among criteria, but also considers the uncertainties on decision making process. Finally, a case study of supplier selection considering risk factors is given to demonstrate the proposed method’s effectiveness.