| 具有跟踪隔离措施的新冠肺炎传播模型分析及应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 崔锦,李明涛,裴鑫.具有跟踪隔离措施的新冠肺炎传播模型分析及应用[J].应用数学和力学,2021,42(12):1306-1316. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 崔锦 李明涛 裴鑫 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 太原理工大学 数学学院, 太原 030024 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(11801398)；山西省应用基础研究面上青年项目(201801D221024) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 报道于2019年12月底的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情, 由于2020年春运期间人口的大规模流动, 使得其迅速蔓延.自2020年1月23日起, 我国采取了各种措施使得疫情得到了有效的控制, 例如武汉封城、确诊病例的密切接触者跟踪隔离、湖北人员的居家隔离等.该文基于COVID-19在山西省的实际传播情况, 建立了具有输入病例和确诊病例密切接触者跟踪隔离的动力学模型.在不考虑输入病例的情况下, 分析了模型的动力学行为.利用山西省COVID-19病例数据, 计算了实时再生数, 发现山西省2020 年1月25日全省封村封街道有效控制了COVID-19疫情的传播, 即实时再生数小于1, 从宏观角度验证了防控措施的有效性.进一步通过模型的数值拟合得到: 早期染病者隔离14天的防控策略是合理有效的; 武汉封城时间越早, 染病者的规模越小; 跟踪隔离到大量确诊病例的接触者时, 染病者的规模越小.
|
| 关 键 词： | COVID-19 跟踪隔离 封城 实时再生数 动力学模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-04-22 |
Analysis and Application of a COVID-19 Transmission Model With Tracking and Isolation Measures |
| |
| Affiliation: | College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, P.R.China |
| |
| Abstract: | The novel coronavirus epidemic, appearing at the end of December 2019, spread rapidly due to the large-scale population movement in the Spring Festival travel rush in 2020. Since January 23, 2020, China has taken various measures to effectively control the epidemic. For example, the closure of Wuhan, the tracking and isolation of close contacts of confirmed cases, and the home isolation of Hubei people, etc. Based on the actual transmission of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shanxi province, a dynamic model was established for tracking and isolation of close contacts with imported and confirmed cases. Without regard to the imported cases, the dynamic behavior of the model was analyzed. By means of the case data of novel coronavirus in Shanxi province, the real-time reproduction number was calculated. It is found that the closure of villages and streets in Shanxi province on January 25, 2020 effectively controls the spread of COVID-19 epidemic, that is, the real-time reproduction number is less than 1, which verifies the effectiveness of prevention and control measures from a macro perspective. Further, through the numerical simulation of the model, it is concluded that the prevention and control strategy for early infected patients isolated for 14 days is reasonable and effective; the earlier the closure of Wuhan is, the smaller the scale of infected people will be; the larger number of tracked and isolated contacts of confirmed cases is, the smaller the size of the patients will be. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
| 点击此处可从《应用数学和力学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《应用数学和力学》下载全文 |
|
