| 基于FTA方法的COVID-19疫情应急防控决策研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李永勇,张永进,余珊珊.基于FTA方法的COVID-19疫情应急防控决策研究[J].运筹与管理,2022,31(11):113-120. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李永勇 张永进 余珊珊 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽工业大学 数理科学与工程学院,安徽 马鞍山 243002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(72074001);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(17YJA630135);安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(1808085MG220) |
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| 摘 要： | 鉴于新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的易感染性与聚集性等特点,基于COVID-19的传播机制,应用故障树分析(FTA)方法,研究了具有不同特征的疫情突发事件风险决策问题,包括疫情突发事件的动态演化过程、多种情景以及应急方案对突发事件的影响。通过分析COVID-19疫情突发事件的演化过程,构建故障树来描述导致突发事件演变的条件与因素之间的逻辑关系,给出了不同的可行应急方案。利用FTA预估出疫情突发事件发生的概率,计算出可行应急方案的整体排序值,获得最优应急方案。最后通过一个COVID-19确诊患者的案例分析,验证了所提出的方法的可行性和有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | COVID-19 故障树分析(FTA) 突发事件 情景概率 疫情防控 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-09-29 |
Emergency Prevention and Control Decision of COVID-19 Based on FTA |
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| LI Yong-yong,ZHANG Yong-jin,YU Shan-shan.Emergency Prevention and Control Decision of COVID-19 Based on FTA[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2022,31(11):113-120. |
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| Authors: | LI Yong-yong ZHANG Yong-jin YU Shan-shan |
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| Affiliation: | School of Mathematics & Physics, Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan 243032, China |
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| Abstract: | In view of the susceptibility and clustering of COVID-19, this article analyzes the transmission mechanism of COVID-19, as well as tracing and quarantining close contacts of infected persons and other epidemic prevention emergency plans. Based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) method, the risk decision-making problems of epidemic emergencies with different characteristics are studied, including the dynamic evolution process of epidemic emergencies, multiple scenarios and the impact of emergency plans on emergencies. By analyzing the evolution process of the COVID-19 outbreak, a fault tree is constructed to describe the logical relationship between the conditions and factors that lead to the evolution of the emergency, and different feasible emergency solutions are given. The FTA is used to estimate the probability of an epidemic emergency, the overall ranking value of all emergency plans is calculated, and the best feasible emergency plan is given. Finally, a case analysis of a confirmed COVID-19 patient verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. |
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| Keywords: | COVID-19 fault tree analysis (FTA) emergency scenario probability epidemic prevention and control |
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