| 基于风险网络结构的资产分配策略研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张伟平,庄新田,吴冬梅.基于风险网络结构的资产分配策略研究[J].运筹与管理,2021,30(5):161-167. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张伟平 庄新田 吴冬梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.山东大学 经济学院,山东 济南 250100;2.东北大学 工商管理学院,辽宁 沈阳 110169 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(71671030,71571038,71971048) |
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| 摘 要： | 股票市场是一个高风险市场,如何在频繁发生的极端波动环境下进行有效的资产分配是当前热点问题。本文首次应用VaR模型构建股市风险网络,并基于风险网络模型进行最优投资组合成分选择,分析不同市场波动行情下最优资产分配权重和股票中心性的时变关系,融合风险网络时变中心性和个股表现提出新的动态资产分配策略(φ投资策略)。结果表明:在股市上涨和震荡期,股票中心性和最优投资组合权重呈正相关关系;股市下跌期,股票中心性和最优投资组合权重呈负相关关系;当φ>0.05时,投资者的合理投资区域向高中心性节点移动,反之。φ投资策略的绩效表现证明了风险网络结构能提高投资组合选择过程。此研究对于优化资产配置、提高投资收益、多元化分散投资风险具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | VaR模型 风险网络 网络中心性 最优投资权重 φ投资策略 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-08-05 |
Research on Asset Allocation Strategy Based on Risk Network Structure |
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| ZHANG Wei-ping,ZHUANG Xin-tian,WU Dong-mei.Research on Asset Allocation Strategy Based on Risk Network Structure[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2021,30(5):161-167. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wei-ping ZHUANG Xin-tian WU Dong-mei |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Economics, Shandong University, Shandong 250100, China;2. School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China |
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| Abstract: | The stock market is a high-risk market, and how to carry out effective asset allocation is a hot issue in the frequent extreme fluctuation environment. This paper first uses VaR (value at risk) model to build stock market risk network, and conducts selection of optimal portfolio by risk network structure. The paper empirically analyzes the time-varying relationship between the optimal asset allocation weight and the risk network centrality under different volatility markets, then proposes a new dynamic portfolio strategy (φ investment strategy) which fuses time-varying central and individual performance. The results show that: there is a positive correlation between the network centrality and the optimal portfolio weight in bull and stable market, and the network centrality and the optimal portfolio weight are negatively correlated in decline market; When φ>0.05, the investor's reasonable investment area moves to the high-central node, otherwise. Finally, the portfolio performance of φ strategy proves that risk network structure can improve the portfolio selection process. This study is of great significance for optimizing allocation of assets, improving the return of investment and diversifying the risk of investment. |
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| Keywords: | VaR model risk network network centrality optimal portfolio weight φ investment strategy |
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