| 基于系统双重风险共担的多项目鼓缓冲设置研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张俊光,万丹.基于系统双重风险共担的多项目鼓缓冲设置研究[J].运筹与管理,2021,30(2):218-224. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张俊光 万丹 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京科技大学 经济管理学院,北京 100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71572010,71701067) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高关键链多项目缓冲管理的效率,首次提出了一种基于多项目双重风险共担的鼓缓冲设置方法。新方法从系统角度分析了多项目不同层级的风险共担作用,以同时落在在子项目关键链和多项目系统关键链上的系统关键活动工期占比为切入点对缓冲进行分层管理,抽取部分项目缓冲集中到系统层面,同时综合考虑风险独立因子以及鼓活动有效产出影响指数对鼓缓冲进行了定量设置。仿真结果表明,本文方法在多项目按时完工率、项目缓冲平均消耗率、系统关键链上鼓活动平均延误百分比、多项目系统总工期和成本这几个绩效方面的表现更优,提高了多项目系统的风险应对能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 关键链 多项目管理 缓冲管理 风险共担 鼓缓冲 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-01-07 |
Research on Drum Buffer Sizing Based on Double Risk-pooling of Multi-project System |
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| ZHANG Jun-guang WAN Dan.Research on Drum Buffer Sizing Based on Double Risk-pooling of Multi-project System[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2021,30(2):218-224. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jun-guang WAN Dan |
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| Affiliation: | School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the efficiency of multi-project buffer management, a drum buffer sizing approach based on double risk-pooling of multi-project system is proposed. The new method analyzes the risk sharing at two management levels from a system perspective. Project buffers are hierarchically managed in terms of the proportion of the critical activities that fall on the two types of critical chain, and the abstracted project buffers are collected from the project level and further collected on the system level. On this basis, the drum buffer is quantitatively determined by considering the risk independence factor and the impact of drum activities on the system effective output. The simulation results show that the proposed method has better performance in multi-project on-time completion, average project buffer consumption, average delay of drum activity on the system critical chain, total multi-project duration and cost, thus improving the risk response capability of the multi-project system. |
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| Keywords: | critical chain multi-project management buffer management risk sharing drum buffer |
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