| 基于模糊—冲突熵的风险性大群体应急决策方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐选华,孙寒寒.基于模糊—冲突熵的风险性大群体应急决策方法[J].运筹与管理,2018,27(2):1-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐选华 孙寒寒 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学 商学院,湖南 长沙 410083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(71671189);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71790615,71431006);中南大学创新驱动计划(2015CX010) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对应急决策信息的模糊性以及大群体偏好的冲突性引起决策风险的问题,提出了一种基于模糊—冲突熵的风险性大群体应急决策方法。首先,依据决策者偏好将大群体进行聚类,得到聚集偏好矩阵;其次,提出一个直觉模糊形式的区间直觉模糊距离以减少偏好信息的丢失,同时定义广义直觉模糊数,将二者与前景理论相结合,通过转换得到聚集的直觉模糊前景决策矩阵;再次,构建以决策风险最小化为目标的大群体模糊—冲突熵应急决策模型,计算准则权重,将大群体的前景决策矩阵和准则权重相结合得到方案的综合前景值,并以此对应急方案排序;最后,通过案例的分析与对比验证了所提方法的合理性与有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 前景理论 模糊熵 冲突熵 决策风险 大群体应急决策 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-10-22 |
Risky Large Group Emergency Decision-making Method Based on Fuzzy-conflict Entropy |
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| XU Xuan-hua,SUN Han-han.Risky Large Group Emergency Decision-making Method Based on Fuzzy-conflict Entropy[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2018,27(2):1-10. |
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| Authors: | XU Xuan-hua SUN Han-han |
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| Affiliation: | School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at both the ambiguity of the emergency decision-making information and preference conflict for large group cause decision-making risk, the risky large group emergency decision-making method based on fuzzy-conflict entropy is proposed. Firstly, the large group is clustered by preference and classified to form aggregation preference matrix. Then, the interval-value intuitionistic fuzzy distance in the form of intuitionistic fuzzy number is proposed in order to reduce the loss of preference information, and generalized intuitionistic fuzzy number and its transformation method with intuitionistic fuzzy number are defined. Combined with prospect theory, the intuitionistic fuzzy prospect matrix of different cluster is obtained by conversion. Furthermore, a large group fuzzy-conflict entropy emergency decision-making model is constructed, which goal is based on minimizing the decision-making risk in the process of emergency decision-making, and the constraint condition is the partially attribute weights. According to this optimization model, we can get every attribute’s weight, and then prospect matrix and attribute’s weight are aggregated to the comprehensive prospect values to rank alternatives. Finally, a case analysis and comparison illustrate the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method. |
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| Keywords: | prospect theory fuzzy entropy conflict entropy decision-making risk large group emergency decision-making |
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