| 城市规模、充电设施建设与新能源汽车市场培育 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙晓华,刘小玲,于润群.城市规模、充电设施建设与新能源汽车市场培育[J].运筹与管理,2018,27(7):111-121. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙晓华 刘小玲 于润群 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连理工大学 管理与经济学部,辽宁 大连 116024 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金面上项目(18BGL016) |
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| 摘 要： | 作为互补品,充电设施建设是决定新能源汽车产业发展的重要因素。本文从城市规模的视角出发,在历史友好模型的理论框架下,构建厂商决策和消费者决策模型,利用统计数据和资料设置初始参数,模拟新能源汽车产业的演化过程,比较了不同规模城市内充电设施建设对新能源汽车市场培育的差异化作用。研究结果表明:在现有的市场环境下,新能源汽车的保有量呈现出逐年递增的趋势,但与传统能源汽车相比,市场占有率仍然较低,平均市场份额尚不足4%;不同规模城市充电站的利用率呈现梯度分布特征,规模越大的城市充电站的平均利用率越低;加大充电设施的建设力度有利于降低充电耗费的时间成本,提高潜在用户对新能源汽车的购买欲望,从不同规模城市的比较来看,三线城市的充电站建设对新能源汽车市场培育的带动作用更为明显。因此,未来充电设施政策制定可以给予小城市更多支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 新能源汽车 充电设施 城市规模 产业演化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-09-06 |
City Size,Charging Infrastructure Construction and the Cultivation of Alternative Fuel Vehicle Market |
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| SUN Xiao-hua,LIU Xiao-ling,YU Run-qun.City Size,Charging Infrastructure Construction and the Cultivation of Alternative Fuel Vehicle Market[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2018,27(7):111-121. |
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| Authors: | SUN Xiao-hua LIU Xiao-ling YU Run-qun |
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| Affiliation: | Faculty of Management and Economics,Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China |
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| Abstract: | As a complementary product of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), the construction of charging facilities is an important factor in deciding the growth of AFV industry. From the perspective of city size, this paper builds a simulation model depicting the decision-making process of both firms and consumers based on the history-friendly framework, and sets the parameters referring to statistical data. The evolution dynamics of AFV industry is simulated in order to compare the impact of charging infrastructure construction on the cultivation of AFV markets among cities of different size.The results show that given current market conditions remain constant, the possession quantity of AFVs tends to increase year by year, but compared with conventional vehicles, it is still hard for the average market share of AFVs to surpass 4%; The number of AFVs per charging station serves in cities of different size is subject to the gradient distribution, which means the larger a city is, the lower utilization rate of charging stations it owns; Accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure helps reduce charging time cost, thus increasing consumers' purchase desire for AFVs. Through the comparison of simulation results among cities of different size, it could be seen that the effect of charging station construction on the cultivation of AFV market is the most significant in third-tier cities, which suggests future policies should provide more support to small sized cities. |
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| Keywords: | alternative fuel vehicles charging infrastructure city size industry evolution |
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