| 基于贝叶斯网络的中国电子商务信用风险因素研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张鹤冰,袭希,白世贞. 基于贝叶斯网络的中国电子商务信用风险因素研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2019, 28(5): 99-107. DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0109 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张鹤冰 袭希 白世贞 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.哈尔滨商业大学 工商管理博士后流动站,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150028;2.哈尔滨商业大学 管理学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150028 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2015M571430);黑龙江省普通本科高等学校青年创新人才项目(UNPYSCT-2018128);哈尔滨商业大学青年创新人才支撑项目(2016QN014);哈尔滨商业大学在站博士后科研支撑计划项目(2017BSH021) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对电子商务信用问题可能会导致的电子商务发展缓慢、电子商务市场秩序混乱以及电子商务产业崩溃等风险事件,应用贝叶斯网络理论构建中国电子商务信用风险网络模型,分别分析电子商务信用风险的敏感性因素与关键因素对风险事件的影响程度。运用GeNie仿真软件求得结果:最关键的信用风险因素是技术诈骗率提高、经济效率降低以及国家监管力度不足等三个因素,敏感性因素为新者难做、交易者的交易意愿降低、技术诈骗率提高、经济效率降低以及信息不对称等五个因素。研究认为信用风险关键因素的变化会波及信用风险敏感因素的变动,进而引发风险事件的产生。
|
| 关 键 词： | 电子商务 信用风险 关键因素 敏感性因素 贝叶斯网络 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-03-01 |
Research on Credit Risk Factors of E-commerce in China Based on Bayesian Network |
| |
| ZHANG He-bing,XI Xi,BAI Shi-zhen. Research on Credit Risk Factors of E-commerce in China Based on Bayesian Network[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2019, 28(5): 99-107. DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0109 |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG He-bing XI Xi BAI Shi-zhen |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Harbin University of Commerce Business Administration Postdoctoral Station, Harbin 150028, China;2.Harbin University of Commerce School of Management, Harbin 150028, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Facing the risk events of slow development of e-commerce, disorder of e-commerce market and collapse of e-commerce industry which are all caused by e-commerce credit issues, this paper uses the Bayesian network theory to construct the credit risk network model of e-commerce in China, in order to analyze the impact of both sensitivity factors and key factors on risk events. The results are shown by using GeNie simulation software: three crucial credit risk factors are higher technical fraud, lower economic efficiency and lack of national regulatory effort; the five sensitivity factors are uneasy new comers, reduction of transaction willingness, higher technical fraud, lower economic efficiency and information asymmetry. The study shows that the change of the key factors of credit risk will result in the change of sensitivity factors in credit risk, thus leading risk events to happen at last. |
| |
| Keywords: | electronic commerce credit risk key factor sensitivity factor Bayesian network |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《运筹与管理》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《运筹与管理》下载全文 |
