| 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情确诊病例的统计分析及自回归建模 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹文静,刘小菲,韩卓,冯鑫,张琳,刘肖凡,许小可,吴晔.新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情确诊病例的统计分析及自回归建模[J].物理学报,2020(9):34-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹文静 刘小菲 韩卓 冯鑫 张琳 刘肖凡 许小可 吴晔 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京邮电大学理学院;河北地质大学管理科学与工程学院;香港城市大学媒体与传播系;大连民族大学信息与通信工程学院;北京师范大学计算传播学研究中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(批准号:11875005,61976025,11905042);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(批准号:16YJC630022);河北省普通高等学校青年拔尖人才计划(批准号:BJ2018111)资助的课题. |
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| 摘 要： | 基于安徽省卫生健康委员会截至2020年2月19日公布的800余例新型冠状病毒肺炎病例信息,根据病例中公布的接触史构建确诊患者间的有向传播关系,发现源传染患者中男性居多,被传染患者中女性居多.从病例信息中可知,安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的发展从初期的具有武汉居住或接触史的输入病例转入后期本地传播为主的小范围社区传播,且严格的防控隔离措施有效切断了社区内的进一步传播.源传染患者与被传染患者的确诊时间间隔可用G分布拟合,确诊时间间隔的中位数为2 d,平均值为2.67 d.基于有向传播关系的统计特点,构建安徽省疫情发展后期的自回归传播模型,模型仿真结果与疫情发展数据符合.对除湖北省的全国确诊病例数据同样采取自回归建模与仿真,结果仍与疫情发展数据符合.这一发现为控制疫情在湖北省以外区域的防控提供了参考:通过严格的防控措施和隔离措施,疫情在湖北省之外的传播具有很大的黏滞性,多为家庭程度的密切接触传播,且能有效控制新型冠状病毒肺炎在当地的传播深度,有效控制了疫情的蔓延.
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| 关 键 词： | 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情 缓慢增长期 有向传播关系 自回归 |
Statistical analysis and autoregressive modeling of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic cases |
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| Cao Wen-Jing,Liu Xiao-Fei,Han Zhuo,Feng Xin,Zhang Lin,Liu Xiao-Fan,Xu Xiao-Ke,Wu Ye.Statistical analysis and autoregressive modeling of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic cases[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2020(9):34-40. |
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| Authors: | Cao Wen-Jing Liu Xiao-Fei Han Zhuo Feng Xin Zhang Lin Liu Xiao-Fan Xu Xiao-Ke Wu Ye |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Science,Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Beijing 100876,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China;School of Media and Communication,City University of Hong Kong,Hongkong 999077,China;School of Information and Telecommunication Engineering,Dalian Minzu University,Dalian 116600,China;Computational Communication Research Center,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the information about more than 800 cases reported by Anhui provincial health commission on February 19 2020, the directional transmission relationship between the confirmed patients is constructed according to the contact history published in the cases, and it is found that the majority of the patients who can infect others are male and most of the patients who are infected are female. According to the analysis of case information, the early confirmed coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) cases in Anhui province had the history of residence or exposure in Wuhan. In the later stage, the cases spread in small communities mainly by local transmission, and the strict prevention and control measures can effectively cut off further transmission in the communities. The time interval between diagnosing the source-infected patients and infected patients is fitted by G distribution, with a median of 2 days and an average of 2.67 days. Based on the statistical characteristics of directional transmission relationship, an autoregressive transmission model is constructed in the late stage of epidemic development in Anhui province, and the simulation results are consistent with the epidemic development data. Autoregressive model and simulation are also used for predicting the data of confirmed cases in the whole country except for Hubei province. This discovery can be referenced by regional epidemic prevention and control except for where it originated. Through strict protection measures and isolation measures, the spread of the epidemic outside the original place is highly viscous. It usually spreads by close contact between family members, and the local spread of COVID-19 can be effectively controlled. |
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| Keywords: | coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic slow growth period directed transmission autoregression |
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