Forecasting China's natural gas consumption based on a combination model |
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| Authors: | Gang Xu Weiguo Wang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China;2. College of Quantitative Economics, Dongbei University of Finance & Economics, Dalian 116025, Liaoning, China |
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| Abstract: | Ensuring a sufficient energy supply is essential to a country. Natural gas constitutes a vital part in energy supply and therefore forecasting natural gas consumption reliably and accurately is an essential part of a country's energy policy. Over the years, studies have shown that a combinative model gives better projected results compared to a single model. In this study, we used Polynomial Curve and Moving Average Combination Projection (PCMACP) model to estimate the future natural gas consumption in China from 2009 to 2015. The new proposed PCMACP model shows more reliable and accurate results: its Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is less than those of any previous models within the investigated range. According to the PCMACP model, the average annual growth rate will increase for the next 7 years and the amount of natural gas consumption will reach 171600 million cubic meters in 2015 in China. |
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