关键词: 不确定测度, Choquet积分, Shapley值, 威胁和差错管理, 风险分析

Abstract: Air traffic safety management has focused on the risk of single type of threat and error, ignoring the interaction of threats and errors. It's difficult to embody the correlation of different types of risk. Based on fuzzy measure, air traffic risk decision making model is proposed, where Choquet integral serves as the risk function on the coalitions formed by different types of threats and errors. On the basis of risk function, Shapley value distributes the risk value to each type of threat and error. Through applying this risk decision model, we have an example to illustrate how interaction index modifies the risk value, which is more practical for air traffic operation.

Key words: words: fuzzy measure, choquet integral, shapley value, threat and error management, risk analysis